The Other McCain

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NY-26 Election Day: Are Crazy Jack’s Supporters Breaking Toward Democrat?

Posted on | May 24, 2011 | 9 Comments

Jazz Shaw points out in the Hot Air Green Room that, contrary to some expectations, the erosion of fake “Tea Party” candidate Jack Davis’s support has not translated to poll gains for Republican Jane Corwin. This adds doubt to Politico‘s prediction that a low vote for Crazy Jack would necessarily portend a Corwin victory in today’s New York congressional election.

But what Jazz points out is, upon reflection, quite logical: Jack Davis ran as a Democrat three times — in 2004, 2006 and 2008 — and it only makes sense that most of his “soft” support would be Democratic voters. Once these voters became aware that Kathy Hochul was the actual Democrat candidate in the 26th District special election, most of them quite naturally switched their preference to her.

Therefore, those voters who actually do vote for Crazy Jack — however small their number — will come almost entirely from the ranks of Republican voters or independents who, in most years, lean toward the GOP. Jazz correctly points out that it is still impossible to predict tonight’s outcome:

As Nate Silver pointed out this week, polling single House races for a special election is notoriously difficult. Turnout is almost uniformly low compared to a general election, particularly when a governorship or the presidency is on the line. Low turnout races increase the margin of error, and while this race is likely to still be very close, it could flip either way by tonight.

This was something I kept pointing out last fall: Polling a congressional race is harder than polling a statewide election or a presidential election, and a low-turnout election like this one will hinge on which party can get its voters to the polls.

It’s not particularly encouraging that the Republican Party of New York is so incompetent as to allow their volunteer phone bank to be infiltrated by leftist provocateurs.

More news at Memeorandum. Polls in NY-26 close tonight at 9 p.m. If you live there, vote Corwin. And we’ll have the results tonight.

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