The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

NY-26 ELECTION NIGHT HQ
UPDATE: Democrat Hochul Wins

Posted on | May 24, 2011 | 42 Comments

12:30 a.m. ET: The predicted spin from the New York Times:

Democrats scored an upset in one of New York’s most conservative Congressional districts on Tuesday, dealing a blow to the national Republican Party in a race that largely turned on the party’s plan to overhaul Medicare.

11:45 p.m. ET: Erick Erickson at Red State:

The truth of the matter is that the Republican Party of New York sucks and has sucked for a while. It is especially terrible at special elections where the out of touch party leaders pick state legislators who everyone hates and runs them.
Jane Corwin is a sitting member of the NY State Legislature, just like Jim Tedisco, just like Dede Scozzafava, and she was handpicked by the party elders. Notice a trend?

Good points. This election was anomalous, as I said earlier today. With 97% of precincts reporting, Jack Davis’s vote (9,495) is more than double Democrat Kathy Hochul’s 4,694 margin over Corwin. However, the impact of Davis’s phony “Tea Party” candidacy — like the blunders of the New York GOP – will be all but ignored as the MSM spins NY-26 as a huge Democrat triumph of national significance.

10:45 p.m. ET: Now that it’s over — Jane Corwin has conceded, as Jazz Shaw reports — let me say a few words to the Republican Party of New York.

WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE?

In the middle of a recession, why would you nominate an heiress for Congress? Not to play class-warfare here, but do you really think that it helps the GOP win over hard-pressed blue-collar voters when you run a candidate who inherited part of a $4o0 million fortune? You think folks can relate to that?

And why, Republican Party of New York, if you were going to insist on nominating Jane Corwin for this special election, couldn’t you have at least done something to keep David Bellavia on the GOP team? Bellavia’s endorsement of Jack Davis hurt you guys pretty bad, but your campaign was so generally mismanaged that maybe you didn’t notice.

So now we have to listen to Democrats gloat about what a huge setback this is to the conservative movement when, as we all know, it’s just further proof of the incompetence of the Republican Party of New York — as if we needed further proof!

UPDATE 10:14 p.m. ET: It’s over. With 75% of precincts reporting, and Democrat Kathy Hochul leading by nearly 5,000 votes — 48%-42% — she has been declared the winner over Republican Jane Corwin. Third-party spoiler Jack Davis’s vote total will be greater than Hochul’s margin of victory.

With 469 (75%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 39,492 (48%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 34,553 (42%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,722 (8%)

UPDATE 9:50 p.m. ET: Still no precincts reporting from Genesee or Orleans counties. Hochul’s lead of about 2,700 votes is coming entirely from Erie County.

UPDATE 9:45 p.m. ET: With 345 (55%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 29,063 (48%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 26,277 (43%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,090 (8%)

UPDATE 9:37 p.m. ET: With 210 (33%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 18,022 (48%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 16,033 (42%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,369 (9%)

UPDATE 9:33 p.m. ET: Looking at the county-by-county results, I notice that so far we haven’t gotten any results from Genesee (53 precincts), Orleans (32 precincts) or Wyoming (40 precincts) counties.

UPDATE 9:28 p.m. ET: With 87 (14%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 7,393 (46%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 7,004 (43%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,644 (10%)

Linked by The Lonely Conservative — thanks!

UPDATE 9:23 p.m. ET: With 20 (3%) of 627 precincts reporting:

Kathy Hochul (Democrat) . . . . . . 3,098 (46%)
Jane Corwin (Republican) . . . . . . 2,811 (42%)
Jack Davis (Crazy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 790 (12%)

UPDATE 9:05 p.m. ET: The Buffalo News will be the go-to source for live election results, and they’ve also got the vote breakdown county-by-county.

PREVIOUSLY: Polls close at 9 p.m. ET in the special election to fill the seat vacated by Chris Lee in New York’s 26th District. We will have complete results and analysis.

Dave Weigel, who traveled to the district to cover the closing week of the campaign, is liveblogging at Slate. Jessica Taylor is liveblogging at National Journal.

Jazz Shaw has an open thread at Hot Air, and notes that Republican Jane Corwin has already gone to court to prevent an early certification of tonight’s results.

PREVIOUSLY:

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Category: Congress, Election, New York, Republicans

Comments

  • Pingback: Open Thread: The NY-26 special election. Not ending tonight « Hot Air

  • JeffS

    Stacy?  A “cynical old coot”?!!!!??!?!?!???!??!!?! 

    Who knew?

  • Pingback: NY-26 Election Results via Live-Blog: Will Jane Corwin, Kathy Hochul or Jack Davis win – Updated | The Lonely Conservative

  • JadedbyPolitics

    If the Republican district splits the vote knowing there is a LIAR running as a Conservative they deserve the liberal they get, unfortunately WE don’t deserve it!

  • http://twitter.com/lonelycon lonely conservative

    There are about 6,400 outstanding paper ballots. I’m not going to get ahead of things here, but remember NY25. Maffei practically declared victory and we all know how that turned out.

  • http://twitter.com/tahDeetz Deetz

    I’ve heard Hochul i’snt a resident of ny26. If true, can Hochul sit?

  • Bobbie

    This is just the beginning!!!!!  Love it!!

  • http://www.facebook.com/itsA2J Gayle Davis

    Paul Ryan has dug the grave of the Republican Party & I couldn’t be happier.  You can’t talk about killing Medicare & expect people to gleefully dance for joy!

  • Mary Sue

    You can’t expect people not to be total morons either especially when the idiots teaching math in schools have seen to it no one in the US has any better grasp on math than the Greeks.  Teach us to dance Soros bot http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AzpHvLWFUM

  • Mary Sue

    You can’t expect people not to be total morons either especially when the idiots teaching math in schools have seen to it no one in the US has any better grasp on math than the Greeks.  Teach us to dance Soros bot http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AzpHvLWFUM

  • Mary Sue

    You can’t expect people not to be total morons either especially when the idiots teaching math in schools have seen to it no one in the US has any better grasp on math than the Greeks.  Teach us to dance Soros bot http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AzpHvLWFUM

  • Mary Sue

    You can’t expect people not to be total morons either especially when the idiots teaching math in schools have seen to it no one in the US has any better grasp on math than the Greeks.  Teach us to dance Soros bot http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AzpHvLWFUM

  • http://twitter.com/JSF1970 Joseph Fein

    RS,

    The new York State republican party is more f-d up then the CAGOP (at least in CA we just need ONE county to flip — in NY you need reigons).

    Since the machine broke down in Long island, there has been no steady leadership (or foward thinking in NY GOP politics). 

    Sometimes, machine politics do work.

  • Bjohnson11

    Racist republicans shown up with the long form birth certificate. Chrysler paid back their loan. So did general motors. Osama killed. Hochul wins. Ryan is an idiot. Republicans scared to death. Sucks to be a republican huh??

  • Anonymous

    General Motors paid back one loan by getting another. 

  • Joe

    who dat?

  • Joe

    ugh

  • JeffS

    Never blog when drunk, dude.

  • JeffS

    Yet another reason to replace the Republican party.

  • http://twitter.com/darleenclick darleenclick

    whoa … 29 words and as many lies. Congrats!

  • http://profiles.google.com/caljrel James Knauer

    Completely predictable.  Paul Ryan’s “Send In The Hounds” approach to Senior Care will be repeated over and over again from now until next November.  

    Meanwhile, where are jobs bills?

  • Robbyahm

    The trolls are out for the night, so dont read or reply to their comments ;)
    I do have something to say though,  New York is losing two districts due to reapportionment, It was a possibility that if Corwin were to win, that district would have been eliminated, now that Hochul won, do you believe they will still eliminate that district or reinforce it with more democrats, I know for a fact they must be looking at Ann Marie Buerkle but for the other district, Hochul may be gone sooner than later.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Stacy, you seem to think state party officials are or should be driven to pick the candidates most likely to win. In reality, wealthy people have been known to exert a lot of influence on both political parties. They didn’t pick her just for the lulz.

  • Gaius

    Whoa. This was a district so reliably republican that the common wisdom was that the Republicans could run a dead guy and win. Ok, a nearly dead guy. The rock ribbed republicans of the 26th didn’t change. There was no sudden influx of “Hispanics” or Asians or other people to swing the election.

    Them guys in the 26th,they is upset. They voted “upset”. I doubt very much that they setup family shrines to JFK and Hillary Clinton overnight.

    What this may be is an indication that “normal” politics as we have known it is breaking down. The grand coalitions may be fraying apart. The consensus since 1952 (mainly republican presidents 59 years, 44 years republican – yeah almost 2:1) is not preordained. We may be in for another ” realignment ” where the parties fundamentally change, or a new party emerges. The republican coalition of the old, the business elite, the social reactionary and those who are afraid that the game is changing against them (formerly the working middle class – now outsourced by the business elite) is unstable. The democratic coalition has never been stable ( I belong to no organized political party…I’m a democrat – will Rogers).

    Partisan American politics is failing. A cold war we could deal with. A radical economic revolution, the 3rd industrial revolution, the death of the middle, the rise of the geeks, globalization, the conversion of the American south into the new industrial Vietnam /china for in country outsourcing, whatever historians in the future will call it, has caught American politics flat footed. The social conservatism of today will be as moot as the virulent anti Catholicism and anti Irish attitudes of the second industrial revolution ( usually styled The Industrial Revolution.) it is now pretty clear that those excreable beliefs, and political policies, were the only way that many people could vent their fears in the middle of that revolution. Something was changing, that was bad and the “@$& Micks” must be responsible.

    It will be interesting to see if the Republicans, founded as a liberal, abolitionist, socially forward thinking party, a bunch of bomb throwers as it were, will revert to that original pattern or will, like the Whigs, just dry up and die. The democrats will remain, lack of a manifesto means ultimate flexibility.

  • http://pointofagun.blogspot.com/ Dave C

    Would it be apt to say that the  NY RP is more f**ked than a chick named Stanley at a drunken frat party?  

  • Anamika

    hahaha!

    I love this “it’s only local!” narrative and “we would have easily won if not for the spoiler, or the establishement annointed candidate” spin from bitter losers.

  • Anamika

    Shame on you. You disgust me.

  • http://pointofagun.blogspot.com/ Dave C

    tee hee

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Arrogance will kill you every time. It’s not enough to just put a plan out there-in this case, Medicare reform-and say in effect “if you don’t support this plan you’re a socialist”. How is that any different than Democrats crying “RAAAAACIST”!

    It’s not enough to have a plan, you have to be able to articulate it and sell it.

    When are Republicans going to learn that you can’t just sit back and allow your opponents to define you? When in the hell has that ever worked?

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Arrogance will kill you every time. It’s not enough to just put a plan out there-in this case, Medicare reform-and say in effect “if you don’t support this plan you’re a socialist”. How is that any different than Democrats crying “RAAAAACIST”!

    It’s not enough to have a plan, you have to be able to articulate it and sell it.

    When are Republicans going to learn that you can’t just sit back and allow your opponents to define you? When in the hell has that ever worked?

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Arrogance will kill you every time. It’s not enough to just put a plan out there-in this case, Medicare reform-and say in effect “if you don’t support this plan you’re a socialist”. How is that any different than Democrats crying “RAAAAACIST”!

    It’s not enough to have a plan, you have to be able to articulate it and sell it.

    When are Republicans going to learn that you can’t just sit back and allow your opponents to define you? When in the hell has that ever worked?

  • Pingback: Datechguy's Blog » Blog Archive » Morning Joe Shocked me today by leading with Netanyahu

  • Anonymous

    You mean the ones the Copperheads couldn’t be bothered with when they actually ran the whole thing? Slither out of here, slavery fan.

  • Anonymous

    “the Republicans, founded as a liberal, abolitionist, socially forward thinking party, a bunch of bomb throwers as it were, ”

    Oh, you can count on it. We started out as anti slavery, and just because the Copperheads call it a “collective” instead of a “plantation” doesn’t make the fight or the opponent any different.

  • Pingback: New poll finds one third of young New Yorkers plan to leave state « Wintery Knight

  • DaveO

    Machine politics work when there is no opposition, and one has the means of ensuring there’s no opposition.

    The NYGOP exists to legitimize elections. Not to win them. That’s why they rebuffed Bellavia – New Yorkers can’t stand a winner. Winning is hateful to them, anathema. They proudly declare that they’d rather shovel sh*t in Oswego than win the war for this great Nation of ours.

      The CAGOP is a joke best left offstage.

  • http://2011.ak4mc.us/ McGehee

    From Wikipedia, FWIW:

    Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution sets three qualifications for representatives. Each representative must: (1) be at least twenty-five years old; (2) have been a citizen of the United States for the past seven years; and (3) be (at the time of the election) an inhabitant of the state they represent.

    Nothing there about being an inhabitant of the district, unfortunately.

    I believe states are allowed to require district residency, but if New York doesn’t…

  • http://2011.ak4mc.us/ McGehee

    Anyone else noticing how much today’s Democrats sound like Archie Bunker?

  • Anonymous

    Well, the first difference is that calling them socialist is actually, you know, TRUE. 

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    Hey!  He was one of my heroes back when I was growing up in the New Left 1970′s.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    That’s not the point. While most Democrat politicians and activists might be socialist, or somewhat socialist, most people that vote for them are not, at least not consciously. Like it or not, if you want to win elections, you really do have to lower yourself to reach out to people sometimes and take the time to explain things to them.  

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Democrats are not so much Marxist, by the way, as they are Communitarian-

    http://www.crossroad.to/Quotes/communitarian/niki.htm

    I think of it as somewhat of a cross between National Socialism and Internationalist Socialism, a way to blend the two while modifying the major points of conflict.

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