The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Nate Silver: ‘Hey, You Know, Maybe We Should Take Herman Cain Seriously’

Posted on | May 27, 2011 | 7 Comments

The polling savant of the New York Times takes a look at the recent Gallup numbers and is intrigued:

I would not suggest that Mr. Cain is one of the leaders. But in a field where the three insider favorites to win the race — Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman — collectively poll at just 25 percent, and where some Republicans seem to be pining for an outsider (perhaps even outside-the-box) choice, he’s the freshest face.

Silver produces this very interesting graphic, illustrating the relative intensity of Cain’s support:

Which is impressive, any way you look at it. And as Caroline May reports, Democrats are now paying attention:

While conservative commentators Charles Krauthammer and Karl Rove might not see Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain as viable, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is keeping an eye on the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO.
While the DNC has been barraging media and supporters with alerts criticizing Republican presidential hopefuls Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, and Mitt Romney’s media appearances, Cain has largely been out of the mix. Last week, the DNC sent out more than 25 alerts attacking the aforementioned GOP frontrunners, not one mentioned Cain.
[Thursday], however, the committee ramped up its focus on Cain, issuing a “Rapid Response” attack against his morning “Fox and Friends” appearance, during which Cain praised the Paul Ryan budget.

What does this mean? Da Tech Guy thinks media liberals are now promoting Cain as a surreptitious way to submarine Sarah Palin.

That theory may attribute too much foresight and subtlety to the JournoList crowd. My own theory — insofar as any theory is needed to justify the overdue attention Cain is now getting – would be that political reporters are bored with the ho-hum GOP primary field and are looking for something new and exciting to write about. However you explain it, Herman Cain’s campaign has definitely gathered momentum in the past three weeks, whereas Tim Pawlenty . . . eh, not so much.

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Category: Da Tech Guy, Election 2012, Herman Cain, New York Times, Polls, Tim Pawlenty

Comments

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Dan-Gillen/1366479171 Dan Gillen

    that is an interesting graphic, but as usual Ron Paul’s real support has been over stated by at least 12 points.  

  • Anonymous

    In what reality is Huntsman one of the three  favorites to win?
    In the column for candidate preference he’s tied at the bottom (2%) with Johnson and Santorum. In name recognition and poll adjusted for name recognition Huntsman is second to last out of ten candidates.

  • Anamika

    In what reality is Huntsman one of the three  favorites to win?

    Nate said insider favorites…

    Palin, Cain, Paul, Johnson and Bachmann in the list are mostly “outsiders”.

    See Nate’s graph (though a few months old) of the GOP field:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/a-graphical-overview-of-the-2012-republican-field/

  • Joe

    This is like Paula Kael expressing surprise Richard Nixon won, because she did not know anybody who voted for him. 

    But the inverse. 

  • Anonymous

    The insider’s grip on reality is tenuous at best.

  • Pingback: Cain, surrogate Sarah « Don Surber

  • Anonymous

    You can tell that Cain is garnering some attention from the angry left because their drones are all over the place the last few days. They’re sockpuppeting themselves as discerning conservatives/libertarians, who are genuinely concerned about Cain’s “unconservative” record, trying to germinate doubts about his candidacy.

    Look, I’m withholding judgment, myself, but the sockpuppets almost make me want to jump straight on the Cain bandwagon. Maybe the sockpuppets are double agents who work for Cain . . .        

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