Category: Tim Pawlenty

VP Tea Leaves: Is Mitt’s Short List Now Down to Pawlenty, Portman or Ryan?

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There are signals — both in terms of actual evidence and what might be called “absence of evidence” — that Mitt Romney’s vice-presidential choices have now come down to three Midwesterners: former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.

It appears that Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal has been eliminated from consideration and, most importantly, that talk of Tea Party favoirite Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as Romney’s running mate is just talk. Neither Jindal nor Rubio have taken the steps that would indicate they are finalists for the VP slot. Jindal, for example, has accepted an invitation to appear at an event during the Republican National Convention in Tampa, an acceptance he would not be able to make if he were indeed obligated to keep his schedule clear as the potential running mate.

Meanwhile, at the Weekly Standard — where Bill Kristol and Steve Hayes previously offered either Rubio or Ryan as the “bold” conservative choices for VP — the balance appears to have tipped toward Ryan, indicating that Kristol and Hayes have indications that Rubio is not among the finalists for the spot. (There has been widespread talk among GOP insiders that despite Rubio’s popularity, “vetting” proved problematic for the Florida senator.)

This week’s trial-balloon suggestions about other possible running mates — including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Gen. David Petraus — are regarded as irrelevant distractions by well-informed observers, who now believe the “veepstakes” to have been narrowed to the trio of Midwesterners. Pawlenty and Portman are viewed as the “safe” picks, while talk about a “bold” Republican choice now focuses exclusively on Ryan, the conservative chairman of the House Budget Committee. Tuesday, Robert Costa of National Review cited “sources close to the Romney campaign” as saying that Ryan had risen from “dark horse” to “contender” for the running-mate pick.

Conservatives pushing Romney to go “bold” have a key ally in Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, a Wisconsinite who is said to be quietly exercising home-state influence on Ryan’s behalf. Meanwhile, there may be bad blood brewing between the two “safe” alternatives: Some supporters of Portman blame the Pawlenty camp for pushing reports that Portman once worked as a lobbyist for notorious Haitian dictator “Baby Doc” Duvalier. (ABC News debunked that claim last month.)

How much longer will the GOP veepstakes speculation continue? Probably not too long. Some say Romney’s pick could be announced as early as Wednesday, but the Weekly Standard points to Thursday as the likely day, while Republican strategist Karl Rove says not to expect a selection before Friday.

UPDATE: Alex Moe of NBC News reported today that Paul Ryan’s planning a “vacation.” Just a coincidence?

Dear Byron York: Huh?

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“This could have been Tim Pawlenty’s moment. With many Republicans writing off Rick Perry, worried Herman Cain can’t last, and perpetually dissatisfied with Mitt Romney, the former Minnesota governor might have gotten another look, had he stayed in the race. Given all the changes that have taken place in the GOP presidential contest, who knows? Pawlenty might have been a serious contender by now.
“Instead, Pawlenty is at home, having quit immediately after finishing third in the Aug. 13 Ames, Iowa, Republican straw poll. He has endorsed Romney — in what seemed a not-terribly-enthusiastic gesture — and he has publicly mused that maybe he got out too early. Indeed, there must be moments where Pawlenty kicks himself for bailing out of a race that proved much more volatile than anyone thought.”
— Byron York, “Pawlenty coulda been contender in this race”

No, sir, Mr. York. You’re completely wrong. Pawlenty’s mistake wasn’t quitting too soon. Pawlenty’s mistake was running for president.

Whatever his merits, Pawlenty lacks charisma. He’s less charismatic than Mitt Romney, and that’s saying something.

It is probably unfair that so many Americans believe that they can judge a man’s qualification for high office based on how he seems on TV. This process favors people who are good at seeming qualified, regardless of whether they actually are qualified. Nevertheless, we must live in the real world, and the reality is that “Minnesota Nice” didn’t play well on TV.

Back when he was actually running, people kept telling me that Pawlenty seemed weak in the debates. And the word “seemed” is inescapable in that formulation. Regardless of whether Pawlenty is weak, he seemed that way to a lot of people, and this was enough to destroy his candidacy. Because apparently the voters reckoned that whoever goes up against Obama must be ostentatiously strong. The fact that Michele Bachmann seemed stronger on TV than Pawlenty . . .

Finish that sentence however you wish. The point is that Byron York or anyone else who thinks Pawlenty would fare better now than he did three months ago is deluded. Pawlenty just didn’t have what it takes, and York’s revisionist “what if” hypothesis points to what was wrong with the idea of Pawlenty’s candidacy from the start. Pawlenty’s campaign was always more plausible in theory than it was in fact.

“Successful two-term Midwestern governor” is, theoretically, a splendid description of a presidential candidate. But when the successful two-term Midwestern governor has the demeanor of an undertaker, the theory is much less splendid than it might appear on paper.

One look at Tim Pawlenty ought to have been enough to dispel the theory of his candidacy, yet he was one of two names — along with Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels — mentioned by George Will in May as having a “reasonably certainty” of winning the GOP nomination and beating Obama. And one look at Mitch Daniels . . .

Perhaps you get my point. The TV Age doesn’t necessarily require successful presidential candidates to look like movie stars, although being an Evil Dead ringer for Bruce Campbell certainly hasn’t hurt Mitt Romney. Yet it is amazing that candidates like Pawlenty and Daniels, who simply don’t look the part, always strike pundits as so eminently plausible. Ditto the jolly jelly belly from Jersey, Chris Christie.

Also, Byron, you get a five-point foul for invoking “many Republicans” as a sock-puppet for espousing your own sense of the campaign. It’s a convenient rhetorical device, but it’s sort of a push-poll kind of thing — the “suggested sell,” as they say in food service: “Would you like to add a fried apple pie to your Value Meal, sir?”

“Many Republicans” can be deployed endlessly, e.g.: “Many Republicans are glad they don’t have to worry any longer about that boring blowhard Tim Pawlenty,” or “Many Republicans don’t even remember that a guy named Tim Pawlenty was ever a candidate for president.”

The last thing in the world we need at this point is a bunch of woulda-coulda-shoulda second-guessing over stuff that we can’t go back and change. Pawlenty is gone, and best forgotten, and I don’t want to hear any more about him.

T-Paw and ‘Robust Internationalism’

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What to make of this article by Jamie M. Fly in Foreign Policy?

The departure of Gov. Tim Pawlenty from the race for the Republican nomination for president deprives national security conservatives of one of the field’s leading champions of a robust internationalism. Despite the ludicrous rants of Rep. Ron Paul and efforts by some Tea Party organizations to back significant defense cuts, most of the remaining Republican contenders appear to be relatively hawkish. However, Pawlenty’s willingness to speak out on foreign policy and to push back against undercurrents of isolationism in the party will be sorely missed.

You can read the whole thing. My inner cynic tells me that the true subtext is: “One of Jamie Fly’s buddies was an adviser to Pawlenty on national security issues and is now hustling around for another campaign gig, so let me praise T-Paw as a way of promoting my buddy’s job-search.”

But that’s just my inner cynic talking. Less cynically, I’m mystified that Fly’s article didn’t mention Rick Santorum as a spokesman for “robust internationalism.” It’s probably because Fly wants to limit the discussion to candidates he thinks might actually hire his now-unemployed former T-Paw adviser buddy. (Damn that inner cynic! Always interrupting …) And most of the experts rate Santorum’s campaign as a hopeless long-shot, as opposed to Pawlenty’s can’t-miss campaign which, alas, imploded at its first contact with actual Republican voters.

Insofar as it involves actual policy — as opposed to politics — I am skeptical of Fly’s worries about an internecine GOP conflict between “robust internationalism” and “undercurrents of isolationism.” Is Fly attempting to throw us on the horns of a false dilemma? Does he overlook the possibility that the arguably excessive hawkishness of the Bush presidency could afford to be tempered by a mild dose of the “isolationism” he so dreads? Continue reading T-Paw and ‘Robust Internationalism’ →

GOP Presidential Primary Apocalypse

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Tim Pawlenty’s former campaign staff is reportedly hoping to join the campaign of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. This is amusing: Who wants to start their campaign with a team of losers? It’s also pathetic: Unemployed campaign staffers pinning their future hopes on a guy who has repeatedly said he is not running for president. And the ex-Pawlenty staffers are trying to make themselves seem more desireable by asserting that they’ve “resisted overtures” from Paul Ryan’s prospective campaign.

Longtime Red State contributor Josh Trevino says Michelle Malkin is “insane”  and “fringe” to criticize Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Matt Lewis of the Daily Caller wrote: “Some conservatives, of course, weren’t happy with Malkin’s criticism. When it comes to covering conservative primary candidates, some people think conservative writers should just turn a blind eye — or  solely focus on attacking Obama.”

The problem here is that Perry’s fans — and the Red State crew seems to be leading the charge — have portrayed their guy as All That and a Slice of Cheese and now seem to expect everyone else to cede the nomination to their anointed candidate. As I have explained, I was offended by the Perry campaign’s roll-out, a deliberate diss to the Ames Straw Poll. (Iowan sources told me that Perry’s people had approached the Iowa GOP about getting in on the straw poll and evidently didn’t like the terms offered.) My out-front support of Herman Cain might suffice to explain my resentment of the Perrybots, but really: Don’t supporters of other candidates — Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, et al. — also have a legitimate grievance at being told that Perry is beyond criticism?

They’ve been out out there getting chewed up every day for months, and suddenly they’re just supposed to acclaim the Anointed One?

Because Red State says so? Dan Riehl eats Red Staters for breakfast.

Meanwhile, Dave Weigel has a good piece exploring the possibility of an endless primary fight that results in a brokered convention at Tampa.

I had raised this same possibility Thursday, with the caveat that it’s probably wishful thinking: A brokered convention is every political journalist’s dream. It was what we’d all hoped the Hillary-Obama battle would lead to in 2008. Yet the crowded GOP field and the new RNC rules about delegate apportionment — prohibiting winner-take-all primaries before April 1 — do permit the glimmer of hope that we could witness a multi-ballot Armageddon at the Republican convention. (Theme song: “It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.”)

And while you wrap your mind around the idea of a Tampa apocalypse, consider this: The Sept. 3 Iowa “Restoring America” rally featuring Sarah Palin has switched its site to Indianola to handle a larger crowd:

There has been speculation that Palin, a former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate, could use the event as an opportunity to announce whether she plans to run for president in 2012.
“I don’t know if she’s going to announce or not,” said Charlie Gruschow, co-founder of Tea Party of America. “But whether or not she announces, we’re going to have a huge event.”

Everybody who knows anything about presidential politics has already decided that Sarah Palin is not running in 2012.

But has Sarah Palin decided yet?


Tim Pawlenty Quits!

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NEWTON, Iowa
I was sitting here at breakfast with Ladd Ehlinger just an hour ago when he said, “Pawlenty’s quitting!”

Tim Pawlenty told supporters on a conference call Sunday morning that he is ending his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination after a disappointing third-place finish at the Iowa straw poll.
Mr. Pawlenty thanked his supporters in an early-morning call, two participants said, but acknowledged that he had decided overnight that his candidacy could not proceed.

That was quick, wasn’t it? I landed in Des Moines on Aug. 3 and, eleven days later, Pawlenty quits the race. Some people will say this is merely a coincidence.

Perhaps it was the “neo-Confederate sex panic.” Perhaps it was those rumors that Pawlenty was behind those vicious smears against Michelle Bachmann. And, of course, perhaps the sudden implosion of the T-Paw candidacy had nothing to do with anything I did.

Plausible deniability. “No fingerprints,” IYKWIMAITYD.

Let’s face it though: Any Republican praised by David Brooks is pretty much doomed.

By the way, you may be wondering why I’m having breakfast with Ladd Ehlinger. He was up here in Iowa pitching his work to  certain potential clients, and no he’s driving back to Alabama. He’s going to have a passenger — me.

It’s a long story. But it’s going to take a whole lot of explaining to make my wife understand my unexpected Alabama detour with the world’s most notorious political filmmaker. Hit the freaking tip jar!





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He Only Steals From the Best

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NEWTON, Iowa
When I showed up at the state capitol Tuesday for the Tim Pawlenty event, T-Paw had already split the scene and I found myself talking to Joe Garofoli of the San Francisco Chronicle, who explained that Pawlenty had avoided reporters’ questions while making his early exit.

Joe and I started talking about the hot Texas coeds “Americans for Rick Perry” activists in attendance, and I shared my “Phantom Menace” view of the long-rumored Perry candidacy. Like all great journalists, Joe shamelessly steals brilliant stuff like that:

We will shamelessly steal from conservative blogger The Other McCain and say that Gov. Rick Perry is the Phantom Menace of the GOP presidential scrum. Dude just announced that he’s GOING to announce that he’s going to run for prez…and everybody’s trying to figure out how to respond. Announce that he’s going to announce…it doesn’t get more meta than that.
Now comes word that Perry will be in Iowa Sunday speaking in Rep. Michele Bachmann’s hometown of Waterloo. Oh, it’s on now…

You’ll notice that Joe linked me twice in that post, which is two more links than I’ve gotten from Allahpundit recently. But don’t get me started on that . . . Here is Joe’s video of T-Paw not answering questions about Rick Perry:

“We’re not doing a scrum,” Pawlenty says. “Scrum” being slang for “answering questions at an impromptu press conference” — which all the other candidates are doing at almost every stop along the way.

Tip for GOP media strategists: If your candidate doesn’t do “scrums,” reporters will get pissed off and start writing trash about your campaign, just for spite. I’m not saying it’s fair for reporters to do that. I’m just saying that’s what they do. It’s a matter of “is,” not “ought.”

Iowa Notebook: Romney Coming to Town; Pawlenty and the ‘Plausible Chance’ Trick

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DES MOINES, Iowa
Mitt Romney will be the featured guest at a “Road to the White House Republican House Party” in Des Moines this evening. That starts at 5 p.m. and then at 7 p.m. Tim Pawlenty has a rally in Ames. It’s a 45-minute drive from Des Moines to Ames, so as long as I leave the Romney event by 6, I’ll have plenty of time to get to the Pawlenty event. So those are my campaign events for today. ABC News notes Romney’s long absence from Iowa:

Romney has not spent the summer attending an endless series of campaign events like many of his fellow contenders (he’s been concentrating on fundraising) and he’s taken heat for staying a little too above-the-fray on important national issues. (He didn’t take a position on the debt ceiling deal, for example, until the last-minute.)
He’s also largely avoided the highways and dusty country roads of Iowa that candidates like Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Herman Cain have been crisscrossing for weeks. Romney’s last visit to Iowa was in May.

If you want know why Americans hate journalists, look no further than this story by Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman in Politico:

He’s spent a seven-figure sum and the bulk of his time on the campaign trail courting the Iowa grassroots. Operatives call his expansive Iowa organization the best in the state.
As the only mainstream Republican candidate actively competing in the Ames straw poll — thanks to Mitt Romney’s decision to skip the event and Rick Perry’s presidential race slow-walk—Tim Pawlenty may never have a better opportunity to break through in the 2012 campaign than this Saturday.
With so much firepower behind Pawlenty and so few candidates who have a plausible chance at coming out ahead, Hawkeye State politicos say Ames will be a potentially campaign-changing test of the Minnesotan’s strength.
But if Pawlenty fails to deliver, it will be a grim — and possibly fatal — omen for his underfunded presidential bid.

Who anointed Burns and Haberman with the authority to declare which Republicans are “mainstream” and “have a plausible chance”? Is it their place to decide that, e.g., Michele Bachmann is not a “mainstream Republican” and therefore doesn’t “have plausible chance”? There will be many thousands of Iowa Republicans at the Ames Straw Poll who will cast their ballots for candidates who evidently don’t merit the “mainstream” sobriquet which Burns and Haberman consider themselves uniquely fit to bestow.

And this “plausible chance” trick would not be nearly so insulting if we didn’t know in our hearts — and we do know it, don’t we? — that both Burns and Haberman (like practically everyone else at Politico) voted for Obama in 2008 and intend to vote for Obama again in 2012, so that we have partisan Democrats telling us which Republicans are “mainstream” and “plausible.” Meanwhile, here’s the lead of my latest column:

DES MOINES — Tim Albrecht likes to tell a joke about an Iowa Republican being asked whether he’s going to support a certain presidential candidate in the Ames Straw Poll. “I don’t know,” the Iowan replies. “I’ve only met him twice.”
The joke by Albrecht, spokesman for the state’s popular Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, refers to how accustomed Iowans are to being personally solicited for their support in this state whose first-in-the-nation caucuses have long been a crucial proving ground for presidential candidates. While most Americans go their entire lives without ever meeting a serious candidate for the nation’s highest office, campaigning here is a face-to-face business where voters expect to shake hands and talk directly with those who seek their votes.
That tradition of old-fashioned politicking is what the Ames Straw Poll is all about, which explains why some Iowa Republicans seem a bit miffed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s long-rumored entry into the 2012 presidential field. Last week I began calling him the “Phantom Menace” of Iowa because, like the sinister Sith of the “Star Wars” series, he seems omnipresent even though he is far away.  Ads promoting Perry’s candidacy have been running in fairly heavy rotation on Iowa TV recently, and his shadow campaign has been soliciting write-in votes for Saturday’s straw poll. However, the governor himself hasn’t yet stumped here, while the other GOP candidates have been frenetically crisscrossing the state imploring Iowans to “join me here in Ames,” as Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann says in  her own TV ads. . . .

Read the rest at The American Spectator. And while I make no claim to rate as a “mainstream Republican” on the Burns-Haberman Scale, I think there is a “plausible chance” you’ll hit the tip jar.





Just as a final note: I’m meeting today with Will Upton of Americans for Tax Reform, who flew into Des Moines today to attend a Wednesday morning meeting of Iowa conservative leaders. Will called me after he landed at the Des Moines Airport and reports that Mitt Romney was on his American Eagle commuter flight into town: “He was in coach with the rest of us!”

Oh — and Ladd Ehlinger Jr. is coming to town to meet with a potential client.


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Fear and Loathing at the Quality Inn

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DES MOINES, Iowa
Just got off the phone with Dale Peterson, who’s meeting with agriculture groups — including the Iowa Turkey Federation — on behalf of the Herman Cain campaign today. Meanwhile, I’m trying to figure out the logistics for the rest of my trip.

Right now, I’m staying at the Quality Inn downtown, which is a nice enough place — free breakfast every morning in the restaurant — except that it’s across the highway from Mercy Hospital, and this means that many of the guests are relatives of patients being tended there. Yesterday, while I was waiting for the elevator, there was a lady talking on her cell phone, crying about her father who just had a heart attack and is in ICU at Mercy.

Speaking of people on life-support (this is what we journalists call a “transition”) the TV just showed this Tim Pawlenty ad again:

TV in Iowa is crammed full of these ads, as well as ads for Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann. I’ve posted all three at Right Wing News so you can watch them back-to-back, which is how they’re running during local cable breaks here on Fox News. Like the weeping relatives of ICU patients, these non-stop ads are bumming me out, so I’m going need to get back on the road.

Yesterday, Herman Cain made news during his appearance at the Greater Des Moines Partnership, as Karen Obradavich of the Register reports:

Herman Cain seemed to raise the bar Thursday for his performance in the Iowa Republican straw poll, saying he needs a top-three finish in the Aug. 13 event.
However, the presidential candidate added later that failure to reach that wouldn’t drive him out of the race.
“I don’t believe I have to win the straw poll, but I do believe I need to finish in the top three,” Cain said during a forum sponsored by the Greater Des Moines Partnership.
But when asked what would happen if he didn’t place third or better, he said, “We’re not going to stop. That’s just the desired place where we would like to finish, that’s in the top three. If we finish fourth or fifth, we’re going to evaluate that to determine what the implications are. So it’s not the end of the road, it’s just going to be a harder analysis that we would do to decide if we go forward.”

The stakes for Cain in the straw poll aren’t nearly as high as they are for Pawlenty, as I explain in my Spectator column:

While it is notoriously difficult to predict the outcome of that vote, a third-place finish for Cain at Ames would likely put him ahead of Pawlenty. At least one longtime Iowa GOP operative has said that, given how much Pawlenty has already invested in this state, his campaign’s viability would be in jeopardy if he didn’t place at least second at Ames. If Pawlenty actually were to place fourth — behind Cain, who wasn’t even considered a “first-tier” candidate three months ago — that likely would be seen as a humiliation for the former Minnesota governor. But that’s a huge “if,” and few Iowa observers expect Cain to place better than fifth at Ames.

Those of you who remember my lost $10 bet with Da Tech Guy last week understand why I don’t usually do predictions. But if Cain finishes ahead of Pawlenty at Ames . . . dude. Here are some photos from Cain’s visit yesterday:

The press corps at Cain’s appearance in Des Moines, including Craig Robinson of The Iowa Republican and Meghan Malloy of the Iowa Independent.

Cain talks to a local reporter at the Smokey Row Coffee shop in Oskaloosa.

I’ve got lots more photos and videos, but the slow WiFi connection makes it difficult to upload them in any kind of efficient fashion. And I’ve still got to figure out how and when I’m getting to Sioux City for the start of Herman Cain’s bus tour Monday. His advance team is supposed to arrive in Sioux City tomorrow night, but I need to catch up with Bachmann on the campaign trail.

My phone just rang with a tip from a source who says his Texas sources tell him that Rick Perry is going to unofficially announce this weekend that he’s going to make an official announcement next week. So the Phantom Menace looms even larger now and, even worse: I just ran out of cigarettes.

So I’m hitting the road and will report back later.