Long Knives in Iowa

Michelle Bachmann pushed “a pardon … for a convicted drug dealer/money launderer in 2007”?

They’re bringing it all now — as predicted — and check out this bit buried in today’s Wall Street Journal profile of Bachmann:

Ms. Bachmann has gone through four chiefs of staff and two acting chiefs in less than five years in Washington, payroll records show, an uncommonly high turnover rate. On average, House chiefs of staff serve for nearly seven years, a study for congressional administrators showed.
“I found out real fast that the Michele I knew publicly is not the behind-the-scenes Michele,” said Ron Carey, who was hired as Ms. Bachmann’s staff chief last year and says he quit less than six months later. Mr. Carey said that Ms. Bachmann was consumed with getting herself on television and seemed indifferent to the task of tending to her district, a view expressed by more than half a dozen other former aides.
“It was all about building the Bachmann brand,” Mr. Carey said. A former chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party, Mr. Carey had helped Ms. Bachmann win her first two congressional elections, in 2006 and 2008. He now supports former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty for president.

Former Bachmann aides now working for Pawlenty and attacking their former boss? And he expects to win:

Pawlenty is projecting confidence.
“This is going to be the start of the formal season. And I think we are going to do very well. I’m confident of that,” Pawlenty said Thursday night on Fox News.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Pawlenty, either. His campaign faces perceived financial problems following a second quarter fundraising report that failed to meet expectations; some top aides are working for the Pawlenty campaign either for free, or for a meager salary.
To that end, the Pawlenty campaign’s poured thousands into radio and TV ads leading up to the straw poll . . .

UPDATE: Here’s the background on the drug-dealer pardon:

Bachmann wrote the letter urging [President Bush] to pardon Vennes for his 1987 conviction on federal money laundering, illegal firearm sales and cocaine distribution charges. He was sentenced to five years in federal prison. . . .
Vennes’ latest troubles involve an alleged giant Ponzi scheme with local billionaire Petters at the vortex of the widening probe. Although Vennes has not been charged, a federal search warrant affidavit accuses him of facilitating a $1.2 billion swindle of five investors in companies controlled by Petters, collecting more than $28 million in commissions in the process. . . .
Vennes, however, has been a major financial contributor to Bachmann since 2005. He and his wife, Kimberly, have contributed a total of $27,400 to Bachmann since 2005. Vennes’ brother and his wife, Greg and Stephanie Vennes, have contributed another $8,400 to Bachmann since 2005.

Matt Lewis reported on this in the Daily Caller in May.

UPDATE: Pawlenty’s prospects assessed by Doug Mataconis:

Pawlenty has been under performing in the polls from the beginning, and has never been able to get a boost to put him in the same category as candidates like Romney and Bachmann, or potential candidates like Rick Perry. Absent an outright win or a strong second, it’s going to be hard for him to maintain a credible campaign.

(Via Memeorandum.) The Wall Street Journal talks about Pawlenty’s attempt to manage the expectations game leading up to Ames:

Mr. Pawlenty’s prediction that he will do “very well” are the rosiest from the former governor’s camp as of late, and his campaign’s actions suggest it intends to place better than fifth place. . . . A fifth place finish would mean Mr. Pawlenty is outperformed by second-tier candidates such as Herman Cain and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
His campaign estimates it will have spent $1 million in the Hawkeye State before the straw poll . . .
As the campaign notes, Mr. Pawlenty finished sixth in a late June survey of likely Iowa caucus goers. But the Real Clear Politics Average of Iowa polls shows Mr. Pawlenty in third place in state polls, coming in behind Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.) and Mr. Romney. . . . It creates a difficult balancing act for team Pawlenty: The campaign doesn’t want to downplay its successes and strong organization in Iowa, but it also doesn’t want campaign watchers to expect Mr. Pawlenty to finish in first or second place Aug. 13.

Regardless of the expectations, if Pawlenty finishes third at Ames, it’s bad for him. If he’s fourth or fifth at Ames, it’s a catastrophe. So the main expectation is this: Pawlenty’s going to be fighting like a cornered rat for the next eight days.


Fear and Loathing on Highway 193; Pawlenty Aiming at Bachmann?

DES MOINES, Iowa
Got back from Oskaloosa — an hour away on Highway 193 — about 6 p.m. local time and spent hours struggling to upload video and photos. Now I’m just a couple hours aways from my deadline for The American Spectator, and so there’s only enough time for a couple of pictures and a quick note.

Basically, the Ames Straw Poll on Aug. 13 is shaping up to be Tim Pawlenty’s make-or-break moment. And if he is broken, many observers will declare that it is his fellow Minnesotan, Michele Bachmann, who has broken him. Pawlenty and Bachmann are the only two candidates I’ve seen running TV ads here in Des Moines, and when I posted Bachmann’s latest ad here earlier today, it apparently got the attention of some T-Paw supporters.

Let’s just say that there is no love lost between the two rival Minnesota camps, OK? And we can also point out the obvious: If a Bachmann win on Aug. 13 would be a death knell for Team T-Paw, the clock is ticking down on the time at which “Minnesota nice” goes by the wayside and Pawlenty goes negative on Bachmann. Not that the candidate would attack Bachmann personally, you understand. But the oppo-research files on Bachmann wouldn’t be of any value to the Pawlenty campaign after Aug. 13, if a defeat at Ames effectively destroys Pawlenty’s viability.

Keep that stuff in mind, because surely I’m not the only journalist in Iowa who’s getting “friendly tips” about the Bachmann family’s tax records, etc. And I’m not even trying to get that kind of stuff. It’s just out there, as they say, and I can’t help it when stuff shows up in my e-mail inbox.

Now, a couple of photos from today’s events:

Herman Cain holds an impromptu press conference on the town square in Oskaloosa. Note the two handheld digital recorders at the bottom.

Dale Peterson showed up in Des Moines today. He is agricultural adviser to Cain’s campaign. Maybe he’ll also be on the lookout for people trying to steal yard signs.

And here is a video of a nice lady in Oskaloosa talking about the big annual festival:

I’ll have more later. But first I have to hit that deadline.

UPDATE: After hitting my deadline, I went out to Urbandale — about eight miles from my motel here in Des Moines — to take a quick after-hours look-see at Bachmann’s Iowa campaign headquarters, just to scope out the location. It’s in a shopping center near a pub called Groucho’s. So I was heading back out when I looked across the driveway and, less than 100 yards away from Bachmann HQ is the headquarters of . . . Herman Cain’s campaign. You could quite literally throw a rock from one office to the other. Kinda weird.

Why Is Tim Pawlenty Losing?

Walter Shapiro at The New Republic:

But, midway through the interview, desperate for a headline-making morsel about his home-state rival, I asked Pawlenty to respond to the assessment that he was the establishment and [Michele] Bachmann was the outsider in Minnesota politics. To my surprise, Pawlenty sprang to life. He spent the next four minutes vehemently disputing my premise. “If you look at Minnesota, I don’t think you can define anything I did there as establishment,” he said, methodically ticking off his eight-year record as the militantly anti-tax governor of a state dominated by “a multigenerational, Humphrey-esque, liberal culture.” At times, a thin veneer of anger crept into his voice, even though all he would say about Bachmann, the original flashpoint of the question, was this: “She’s really an outsider, of course. I don’t think there’s much dispute about that.” . . .
With a weak GOP field, it is a mistake to write off Pawlenty more than six months before the Iowa caucuses. Yet it is also undeniable that the former Minnesota governor is in serious trouble. After a month on the Pawlenty beat — during which I spent time on the road with him in New Hampshire, toured his blue-collar hometown of South St. Paul, and delved into his Minnesota record — I came to appreciate the tragedy of his situation. . . . [R]ather than solidifying his position as the credible right-wing alternative to Mitt Romney, he finds himself distracted by thunder on his own right in the form of Bachmann. Why is it that Tim Pawlenty — for whom everything appeared perfect in theory — cannot seem to break through?

The most obvious answer comes far into Shapiro’s story:

Reelected by just 21,000 votes in November 2006, Pawlenty two months later made renewable energy one of the four cornerstones of his State of the State address to the legislature. “Minnesota can’t reverse global climate change by ourselves,” he declared. “But we can do our part and help lead the way. Our energy plan will significantly reduce the amount of carbon we put in the atmosphere. I look forward to working with the Democrats and the Republicans to pass and sign comprehensive historic renewable energy legislation this year.” Pawlenty endorsed cap-and-trade, and his far-reaching environmental agenda called for Minnesota to derive 25 percent of its electricity from wind power and solar energy by 2025.

Pawlenty tries to dimiss his embrace of global-warming theory as a silly mistake, but for him to have taken up a signature issue of liberalism after 2006 — i.e., after the disastrous mid-term election that made Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House — looks an awful lot like opportunism.

Republicans were on the defensive, and Pawlenty grabbed hold of “renewable energy” as a way to appease liberals. Or that’s what it looks like, anyway, and Pawlenty has never given any explanation that would convince a skeptic it was anything else.

What adviser or consultant told Pawlenty that “climate change” was his ticket to success? It doesn’t matter. The consultant who gives bad advice collects a paycheck for doing so. The guy who pays for bad advice is just a chump.

Smitty is fond of T-Paw and I suppose he will resent this smack-around of his guy. My own feeling has always been that Pawlenty is simply too bland to match up against Obama. In the words of Vox Day, T-Paw has “has all the charisma of a corpse on quaaludes.”

Don’t worry, Smitty, Vox takes his shots at Herman Cain, too, but his real target is Rick Perry, whom he calls “the third Bush.” And I agree with Shapiro that it too early — six months before the Iowa caucuses — to write off Pawlenty or anyone else.

GOP Fundraising Numbers
UPDATE: Top Cain Iowa Staff Quit UPDATE: Cain Raises $2.4 Million, Spokeswoman Expresses Confidence

Tim Pawlenty is the first of the major GOP candidates to report his second-quarter fundraising numbers: $4.2 million, which isn’t bad — more than a million a month — although less than the $4.5 million Ron Paul’s campaign is reporting for the second quarter.

Pawlenty supporters (including co-blogger Smitty) can take heart that their guy (a) was doing OK money-wise at a time when he wasn’t doing so good in the polls, and (b) reportedly kept his “burn rate” low by having a lot of people working without pay.

I haven’t heard anything yet from Herman Cain’s campaign about their second-quarter numbers, although I have reason to suspect their total will be substantially lower than Pawlenty’s, probably less than $3 million for the quarter, and Cain’s final cash-on-hand number for the quarter will also likely be lower than Pawlenty’s.

All we know of Mitt Romney’s second-quarter numbers is that his total will be “less than $20 million,” according to the Washington Post.

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune notes that Michele Bachmann is no slouch at fundraising, having collected a record $13 million for her 2010 congressional campaign, but there’s no hint of how much she’s raised for her presidential bid so far.

Newt Gingrich might have raised more than his Tiffany’s bill. Or the cost of his Mediterranean cruise. But considering that practically his entire campaign staff quit, Newt’s payroll costs are quite low now.

Keep in mind that we won’t have official FEC second-quarter reports for another two weeks. Also keep in mind that John McCain’s campaign was practically bankrupt by this point in 2007, but he somehow managed to win the nomination anyway, damn it.

UPDATE: Don’t know what this means, but it is reported by Politico that two top Iowa staffers for Herman Cain’s campaign have resigned. This comes on the heels of the resignation of two other Cain staffers, including the campaign’s New Hampshire coordinator. Expect to hear more about this.

UPDATE II: Just got off the phone with Cain spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael, who says the campaign has experienced usual “growing pains” since Cain’s upset victory in the May 5 South Carolina debate. The campaign staff is actually growing, she said, and new hires will be announced soon.

“I’m excited . . . I’m actually more confident than I’ve ever been,” said Carmichael, who has worked for the candidate since last fall.

While some last-minute checks are still being tallied, Carmichael said Cain’s second quarter total will be more than $2.4 million, with contributions increasing sharply since the South Carolina debate. Importantly, she said, the campaign has zero debt. All bills and all vendors have been paid. I expect to have a campaign press release shortly.

UPDATE III: And here’s the press release:

Cain Previews First Financial Filings
(Stockbridge, GA) — Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain today released an overview of his first campaign finance report, in advance of the reporting deadline of July 15.
While many candidates started with significant funding prior to the official launch of their campaigns, Cain’s operations started with $0 and have raised more than $2.46 million. The campaign boasts $0 in campaign debt, which Cain believes is a testament to his business principles.
“I am pleased to announce that our campaign has absolutely no debt,” Cain said. “I believe our country is in serious economic trouble, with politicians in Washington spending more than they take in. In my career as a business executive, I employed sound economic principles of fiscal responsibility that I will maintain throughout my campaign. I hope to set an example to those in Washington who should be doing the same.”
Friends of Herman Cain has received contributions from more than 27,000 individuals who have donated amounts ranging between $1 and the Federal Elections Commission maximum of $2,500. Donors hail from all 50 states.
“We are immensely appreciative of the outpouring of generosity from so many supporters across the U.S.,” Cain said. “I am humbled by the trust so many have put in me and assure them I will never forget where I come from, what I stand for and what matters to us as Americans.”
On the heels of increasing poll numbers and positive fundraising, Cain plans to announce additional staff, both “on the ground” and at campaign headquarters, in the coming weeks.

UPDATE IV: The Iowa Republican on the two departing Cain staffers there:

Goff and Hall both worked on Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign in 2008 and Iowa Governor Terry Branstad’s campaign in 2010. Goff stated that she resigned because the Cain campaign refused to make a serious effort in Iowa, the home of the First-in-the-Nation caucuses.

What does “refused to make a serious effort” mean? Until we get further explanation, I’m going to take that to mean “wouldn’t spend as much money as we wanted.”

The blunt fact is that political campaigns cost money and, as the Cain press release says, his campaign started from $0 and went to $2.4 million in a very short time. And whereas other campaigns haven’t reported how much debt they have outstanding — e.g., unpaid vendors — Cain proudly proclaimed that his campaign has no debts at all.

The downside to the pay-as-you-go method is that, perhaps, you can’t hire all the staff, contractors, consultants and vendors that your Iowa director considers necessary to a “serious effort.” Another downside is that you might not have enough staff to make sure that all the i’s get dotted and all the t’s get crossed. Which is a possible explanation for something I reported at The American Spectator:

Some Cain supporters have complained privately of phone calls not being returned and other examples of sub-par staff performance by the campaign.

And when I say “complained privately,” I mean bitched like Hell about what these sources felt was sloppy or amateurish work. After listening to several accounts of such episodes, I told one source that Cain needs to bring in somebody to start kicking butts, the way Ike brought in Patton after Kasserine Pass.

But I am merely a neutral objective journalist, not a “strategist” or a “consultant,” so what do I know, right?

Anyway, when I called Ellen Carmichael late Friday and got her pep-talk response, I said, “Hey, no need to blow sunshine up my skirt.” Yet she assured me that, despite the bad headlines about these resignations, things really are looking good for the Cain campaign, but they’re a fledgling operation and can expect some rough spots in the road.

Well, OK. Every campaign looks chaotic at times. Y’all might remember last fall, when we kept seeing all these national “generic ballot” polls showing the GOP heading to a possible landslide in the mid-terms, but I was worried sick. Why? Because I’d been up-close-and-personal with several congressional campaigns and knew that they weren’t exactly models of ruthless machine-like efficiency.

Good Lord, some of the crazy stuff that was going on in those districts. I honestly thought Ann Marie Buerkle was doomed in NY-25, and wasn’t really confident that Morgan Griffith could win VA-9. But they both won and the GOP did indeed score a national landslide, so it just goes to show that a bit of bad news or sloppy staff work doesn’t necessarily portend an impending defeat.

It’s only July. Still more than six months until the Iowa caucuses, and we have no idea what’s going to happen in the meantime. There is no reason to panic and run around screaming, “All is lost! We’re all hopelessly doomed!” The Cain campaign has hit a few bumps in the past couple of weeks, but any talk of an “implosion” is premature, or perhaps completely mistaken.

However, a Patton at Kasserine Pass moment may be nearing, and some overdue butt-kicking could begin any day now.


Pawlenty Campaign Broke?

This report from the Washington Post suggests that T-Paw hasn’t exactly been a fundraising superstar:

At least five top advisers to former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty have been working for little or no pay for several months, a campaign source said Wednesday.
The news establishes with more certainty the emerging portrait of Pawlenty as struggling to keep up with the larger and better-funded operation of his main rival for the Republican presidential nomination, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. . . .
While some staffers are temporarily forgoing a larger paycheck, others signed up with the understanding that they would volunteer their time for the long term, said the Pawlenty aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal personnel matters. . . .

They’re trying to spin this as a good thing:

“Our consultants are either volunteering their time or working for peanuts,” he said. “This may be hard for some in Washington to accept, but they’re on Team Pawlenty for the right reasons — they believe in the candidate and cause.”

Politico‘s Ben Smith observes “if their unpaid status was a point of pride, they hadn’t been advertising it.”

Nate Silver: ‘Hey, You Know, Maybe We Should Take Herman Cain Seriously’

The polling savant of the New York Times takes a look at the recent Gallup numbers and is intrigued:

I would not suggest that Mr. Cain is one of the leaders. But in a field where the three insider favorites to win the race — Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman — collectively poll at just 25 percent, and where some Republicans seem to be pining for an outsider (perhaps even outside-the-box) choice, he’s the freshest face.

Silver produces this very interesting graphic, illustrating the relative intensity of Cain’s support:

Which is impressive, any way you look at it. And as Caroline May reports, Democrats are now paying attention:

While conservative commentators Charles Krauthammer and Karl Rove might not see Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain as viable, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is keeping an eye on the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO.
While the DNC has been barraging media and supporters with alerts criticizing Republican presidential hopefuls Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, and Mitt Romney’s media appearances, Cain has largely been out of the mix. Last week, the DNC sent out more than 25 alerts attacking the aforementioned GOP frontrunners, not one mentioned Cain.
[Thursday], however, the committee ramped up its focus on Cain, issuing a “Rapid Response” attack against his morning “Fox and Friends” appearance, during which Cain praised the Paul Ryan budget.

What does this mean? Da Tech Guy thinks media liberals are now promoting Cain as a surreptitious way to submarine Sarah Palin.

That theory may attribute too much foresight and subtlety to the JournoList crowd. My own theory — insofar as any theory is needed to justify the overdue attention Cain is now getting — would be that political reporters are bored with the ho-hum GOP primary field and are looking for something new and exciting to write about. However you explain it, Herman Cain’s campaign has definitely gathered momentum in the past three weeks, whereas Tim Pawlenty . . . eh, not so much.

2012 Candidates Not Named ‘Herman’

It’s kinda been all-Herman, all-the-time here lately, so let me update you on what’s going on with the non-Hermans:

And finally, Newt Gingrich becomes a punchline:

We now return you to your regularly-scheduled (neutral and objective) reminder to join the online grassroots army at Citizens for Cain.