The Other McCain

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GOP PRIMARY RESULTS HQ: SANTORUM WINS ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI: ‘WE DID IT AGAIN’

Posted on | March 13, 2012 | 68 Comments

UPDATE 1:55 a.m. ET: Mitt Romney wins all nine of American Samoa’s delegates, just like Guam. I say we sell ’em both to China. Package deal. Good riddance!

UPDATE 1:05 a.m. ET: Earthquake in Vanuatu. Just a coincidence, right?

UPDATE 12:15 a.m. ET: As of now, according to the Associated Press, Mitt Romney has 472 delegates, Rick Santorum has 244, Newt Gingrich has 127, and Ron Paul has 47. If correct, that means Mitt has 53% of delegates so far, but remember that he won 50 delegates in one fell swoop in the Florida winner-take-all primary Jan. 31.

Rick Santorum is now flying to Puerto Rico, which votes Saturday, and awards 23 delegates. Next Tuesday, Illinois votes — 69 delegates. Then, on March 24, the Louisiana primary — a Southern state with lots of Catholic voters — and 46 delegates at stake.

Question 1: What will the delegate count be on March 25?

Question 2: Will Mitt Romney still be above 50% of the total?

Question 3: Shouldn’t you donate to Rick Santorum now?

11:50 p.m. ET: Newt Gingrich’s all-the-way-to-Tampa speech — in the wake of two defeats in his own backyard — might not exactly be “whistling past the graveyard.” He can continue campaigning, of course. But unless I’m seriously mistaken about the impact on his fundraising, Gingrich is either going to have to start laying off staff or find some other way to cut expenses. If he can’t win in the Deep South, where will he win? And why keep giving him money, if he keeps losing?

10:55 p.m. ET: As Santorum noted during his speech, his daughter Elizabeth has spent the past two days campaigning in Hawaii, where voting in caucuses tonight doesn’t end until 2 a.m. That creates the possibility that Santorum’s two big wins in Alabama and Mississippi could create a bandwagon shift toward him in Hawaii.

We will have to wait and see. Newt is now about to give his concession speech. His fundraising has got to be circling the drain.

10:45 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum began his speech tonight, “We did it again.” He was speaking from LaFayette, La., and Alabama had just been called a victory for him. Shortly before he ended the speech, it was announced that Mississippi had also been called a Santorum victory.

Two words: FREAKING HUGE!

10:25 p.m. ET: This afternoon, before my nap, when Drudge was posting exit-poll numbers, I wrote:

OK, I’m adding several grains of salt: Exit polls can be screwy.

Now Allahpundit pushes the “chagrin” button:

Looks like the exits got it wrong there, likely vis-a-vis the evangelical numbers.
The worst-case scenario for Mitt tonight was a Santorum sweep. We’re on the verge of it.

Ain’t I done told ya? Ain’t I done told ya?


10:15 p.m. ET: In a telephone interview just now with Greta Van Sustern on Fox News, Rick Santorum said, “We’re on our way to victory.” Asked about his assertion today that Fox News has been biased in favor of Mitt Romney, Santorum said, “Not you and Sean [Hannity] — you’ve been great.” Santorum emphasized that the pro-Romney bias was apparent in straight news coverage. This was just what I said earlier today.

Brett Baier, in announcing Santorum’s victory in Alabama, called it “a major blow to Newt Gingrich.”

10:10 p.m. ET: NBC News just called Alabama for Rick Santorum — FREAKING HUGE, baby!

10:05 p.m. ET: Santorum is very close to winning in Alabama — leading 34%-30% over Newt — but his lead is now just one percentage point in Mississippi. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich’s campaign just released a strategy memo that begins:

Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom that dominates the news media, Newt Gingrich is well positioned to win the GOP nomination and here’s why. . . .

Hey, guys: If Newt loses Alabama and Mississippi tonight, what happens to your fundraising, huh? What was your cash-on-hand and total debt as of March 1, huh? If the checks start bouncing, we’ll see how “well positioned” Newt is.

9:50 p.m. ET: OK, I’m not going to pile up new numbers every five minutes for the rest of the night. Maybe every half-hour or so. Even though it’s still too close to call, at this point, Santorum’s lead continues to hold up in both Alabama and Mississippi. Caution is necessary, however, because we don’t know where these votes are coming from. The districts that come in later may shift the other direction.

Still, for Santorum even to be in the running, two hours after the polls closed, in the South where Gingrich is supposed to be strongest — folks, this could be freakin’ huge.

9:40 p.m. ET: Now with 8% of Alabama precincts reporting:

Rick Santorum ……… 10,759 (34.2%)
Newt Gingrich ………. 9,279 (29.5%)
Mitt Romney ……….. 8,947 (28.4%)
Ron Paul ……………….. 1,745 (5.5%)

So, as of this hour, Rick Santorum leads both Alabama and Mississippi. Don’t be counting any chickens yet. Still way too early, folks.

UPDATE 9:30 ET: Now with 19% of precincts reporting in Mississippi:

Rick Santorum ……… 14,742 (34.1%)
Newt Gingrich ………. 13,303 (30.8%)
Mitt Romney ……….. 12,494 (28.9%)
Ron Paul ……………….. 2,169 (5.0%)

UPDATE 9:25 ET: Strangely, Mitt Romney has no plans to deliver a speech tonight. Rick Santorum is hosting his own election night speech in LaFayette, La. — Louisiana’s primary is March 24.

Linked by Bob Belvedere at Camp of the Saintsthanks!

UPDATE 9:15 ET: Again, to caution, these are very early results, but with 4% of Alabama precincts reporting:

Rick Santorum ……… 3,763 (34.2%)
Newt Gingrich ………. 3,190 (29%)
Mitt Romney ……….. 3,128 (28.4%)
Ron Paul ………………. 659 (6%)

UPDATE 9:10 p.m. ET: Results are coming in very slowly, but with 6% of precincts reporting in Mississippi:

Mitt Romney …… 4,132 (32.4%)
Rick Santorum …. 4,124 (32.4%)
Newt Gingrich ….. 3,640 (28.6%)
Ron Paul ……………. 718 (5.6%)

With such a small number of precincts reporting, these numbers don’t mean much, but the chatter on TV is . . . Newt third?

* * * PREVIOUSLY (7:30 p.m. ET) * * *

Usually, Tuesday nights find me in some “victory celebration” where the WiFi bandwidth sucks and I end up phoning in reports while Smitty mans the election results desk. Tonight, however, Smitty’s wife has him on “honey-do” duty and I’m at home in my basement office/man-cave, with plenty of bandwidth, two dogs, three kids, a wife, etc.

Your basic facts: Polls close in Mississippi and Alabama at 7 p.m. Central, 8 p.m. Eastern. As previously noted, Drudge has got exit poll numbers indicating Romney could win both of those states which, if true, would drive a stake through the heart of Gingrich’s campaign. But it’s going to be tight, so I expect to be up late.

Alabama has 50 delegates, Mississippi has 40. Also, Hawaii has its caucuses today, with 20 delegates at stake, but that won’t be over until 2 a.m. ET, and so folks back east probably won’t know the Hawaii result until breakfast Wednesday morning.

Oh, yeah: American Samoa? They’re having their caucus at Toa Bar & Grill in Pago Pago, where they will choose six delegates to go along with their three “super-delegates.” It sounds like a joke, doesn’t it? Drunk Samoans for Romney!

Quick headline roundup from Memeorandum:

At any rate, check back later. We’ll be piling up the numbers, arguing back at the TV talking-head coverage and quoting the speeches.

RECENTLY:

Comments

68 Responses to “GOP PRIMARY RESULTS HQ: SANTORUM WINS ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI: ‘WE DID IT AGAIN’”

  1. Adjoran
    March 13th, 2012 @ 7:45 pm

    I don’t think Drudge has any special exit polling info – it is embargoed anyway until after polls close.  Earlier today he was giving those results as being from his online poll – just counting the IPs from AL and MS.  So it may or may not mean anything, we’ll know in less than an hour, probably.

  2. Deep South Tuesday: Antic-i-pa-a-tion, It’s Making Me Wait « The Camp Of The Saints
    March 13th, 2012 @ 7:59 pm

    […]  H E R E […]

  3. Bob Belvedere
    March 13th, 2012 @ 8:10 pm

    Just checked Google News: as of 2009 EST, no earthquakes today in Vanuatu!

  4. Steve
    March 13th, 2012 @ 8:18 pm

     CNN exits polls in Alabama: Santorum 34, Romney 29, Gingrich 28. Mississippi: Romney 35, Gingrich 30, Santorum 29(From The Corner at NRO)

  5. Sven
    March 13th, 2012 @ 8:43 pm

    Allahpundit calls Santorum a whiner. He’s right. Anyone who complains about reporters doing the delegate math has got no business in the presidential race. Go home already.

  6. Adjoran
    March 13th, 2012 @ 8:46 pm

     But American Samoa just declared war . . .

  7. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    March 13th, 2012 @ 9:26 pm

    So far so good for Team Rick.  Early results not so good for Team Newt.  

  8. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    March 13th, 2012 @ 9:33 pm

    If Drudge is running Rick on its page, things must be good!  

  9. smitty
    March 13th, 2012 @ 9:46 pm

    No way. Drudge is in the tank for the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

  10. Adjoran
    March 13th, 2012 @ 9:52 pm

    Alabama is slow enough to Mississippi look almost normal.  What’s with these states, don’t they have voting machines?

  11. Svt1999
    March 13th, 2012 @ 9:55 pm

    We are all over the GOP Primaries with multiple links and an Embed HTML Script providing live election results…
    http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com

  12. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    March 13th, 2012 @ 9:56 pm

    I know Drudge is for Mittens, but apparently you do not need Mittens down south! Biscuits and big piece of chicken for Rick?

  13. Adjoran
    March 13th, 2012 @ 10:03 pm

    NBC just called Alabama for Santorum.  Allah thinks the exit polls must have undercounted evangelicals, and it is true they are somewhat less likely to respond.

  14. tranquil.night
    March 13th, 2012 @ 10:10 pm

    Lol, shock and indignance because Rick says the obvious. “eunuchs” come to mind.

    Southern sweep baby, let’s go Rick!

  15. RichardBrodie
    March 13th, 2012 @ 10:13 pm

    If Romney wants the nomination he will probably need Ron Paul’s delegates. If he wants to defeat Obama he will need Ron Paul’s army of devoted followers, which he will get if he chooses Paul as his running mate.

  16. rain of lead
    March 13th, 2012 @ 10:25 pm

    hey stacy
    for some cherry on top for the day
    check out dod for some EPIC blog-stomping
    if you have not seen it yet, I’ll give you a hint

    15,780

  17. SignPainterGuy
    March 13th, 2012 @ 10:33 pm

     ONLY if he chooses RP as his running mate. Paulbots apparently won`t vote for anyone BUT RP !

  18. Adjoran
    March 13th, 2012 @ 10:53 pm

     Let me guess:  math wasn’t your best subject, right?

  19. Adjoran
    March 13th, 2012 @ 11:07 pm

    Santorum did what he had to do, which is marginalize Gingrich as much as possible without letting Romney snag a Southern state.  Mission accomplished, but giddiness may be premature. 

    First of all, Gingrich has no reason to get out.  He’s basking in the free advertising.  He can raise enough money to compete in Louisiana and Texas, and that’s all he really intends to do for the next month or two anyway.   He nabbed delegates in Alaska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and  North Dakota without spending any money, for example.

    And then – you guessed it – there is the math.  Romney had a big lead in delegates last week, but Santorum’s had a great four days.  How about delegates?  Saturday, Santorum nabbed 33 in Kansas; Romney’s total was 32 when you add in Guam, the Marianas, and US Virgin Islands.  So far tonight, Alabama and Mississippi have yielded 21 for Santorum, 17 for Gingrich, and 16 for Romney – and 36 unallocated.  But there remain 9 in Samoa and 20 in Hawaii, so it is conceivable Romney even wins the night on delegates, we won’t know until morning.

    Bottom line:  three big must-wins in a row for Santorum, but he hasn’t made up any ground at all. 

    Spin it however you like.

  20. smitty
    March 13th, 2012 @ 11:14 pm

    I think the ultimate message is from the Tea Parties to the Ruling Class Overlords, and that is: “We ain’t eatin’ your stinkin’ dog food.”

  21. Tidavis
    March 13th, 2012 @ 11:19 pm

    Its a long way to 1144. Have you done the mathematics? If Mitt keeps losing can he he get enough for a first ballot win?

  22. Eric Dondero Rittberg
    March 13th, 2012 @ 11:44 pm

    Congratulations Stacy and Smitty.  You all had a good night.  I say this as a proud Libertarian for Mitt.

    But my question still stands.  Why would any Libertarian in their right mind want to support Rick Santorum for President?  If Santorum somehow were to be the nominee, you’d see a massive swing of libertarian-minded voters to Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson. 

    Sorry, but it’s either Mitt or Gary for me, and a bunch of other fiscally conservative/socially moderate GOPers.

  23. Charles
    March 13th, 2012 @ 11:53 pm

    I have done the math. As long as Mitt wins enough to stay above 50% in delegates he wins on the first ballot. But he can’t clinch it until May 8 and its just as likely it will take him all the way to June 5.

    Romney’s ahead but not inevitable.Someone does, however, have to catch him to beat him.

  24. elaine
    March 14th, 2012 @ 12:12 am

     Mitt isn’t a fi-con…

  25. robert agard
    March 14th, 2012 @ 12:41 am

    Stacy, you are the best in election coverage. I linked you here:  http://bobagard.blogspot.com/2012/03/stacys-is-place-for-election-coverage.html

  26. richard mcenroe
    March 14th, 2012 @ 12:41 am

    Who’s gonna give money to Newt?  Mitt’s gonna give money to Newt.  Gingrich’s only role now is as a spoiler.

  27. Lloyd Albano
    March 14th, 2012 @ 1:52 am

    Just watching John King on CNN going over some scenarios for Santos making the #s, taking states like Texas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, & even Illinois. His one mistake, and one not unique to him, was counting on Romney taking all 173 California’s delegates as a “winner take all” state. In fact, while I’d expect Romney to take the total California vote, the reality is that the state is winner take all only in the sense that 10 delegates are allocated according to the winner of the statewide vote while 159 are allocated, 3 apiece to the winner of each of the 53 CDs. Now, I would assume that Romney would win the majority of these, I’d expect Santorum could pick up good chuck of the inland districts, maybe 15 or so for 45-50 votes or so, enough to scramble some of the “math” that’s factoring in all 173 delegates going to Romney. Key may be how the handful of Republicans in the numerous heavy Dem districts decide to vote in the closed primary.

  28. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 1:56 am

     Be sure to check under your bed for a Ruling Class Overlord – judging from the votes Romney’s received, there must be an awful lot of them.

  29. robertstacymccain
    March 14th, 2012 @ 2:02 am

    In case you didn’t notice: Romney raised $11.5 million in February to $9 million for Santorum.

    That is to say, Santorum is beginning to close the money gap, and his big night tonight ought to be worth a few million more. If this keeps up — and I don’t know that it will — Romney’s larger organization may run up against a budget crunch that the “super PAC” can’t help.

  30. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 2:02 am

     Don’t be foolish.  Gary Johnson won’t get half of one percent of the vote – no LP candidate, including Ron Paul, has won that much since Ed Clark’s stunning 1% in 1980.  All you would be doing is helping to reelect Obama, and that’s about the least libertarian outcome possible.

    No potential GOP nominee is perfect, but the race will be between the winner and Obama and NO ONE ELSE.  You must either vote for the GOP winner or your action will help reelect Obama (between actually voting for Obama, not voting for Prez, voting 3rd party, or staying home, it’s only a matter of degree).

    Now it’s your vote and your right, of course.  Just don’t let emotion lead you to betray your principles in a far more destructive way than voting for an imperfect Republican, whoever it is.  And don’t pretend you aren’t helping Obama if you don’t.  With rights come responsibilities:  do the responsible thing.

  31. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 2:03 am

     Massachusetts when Mitt was sworn in:  $3 billion deficit.  When he left:  $2 billion surplus.

    Which of your “fi-cons” can match that?

  32. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 2:07 am

     Who gave him money before?  There are plenty of people out there who will give him enough for the limited sort of campaign he will now have to run (and has been running).  Maybe he spends more time fundraising than campaigning, but he doesn’t have to campaign to win delegates, like in Oklahoma and Tennessee.

    Newt’s original goal was to boost his book sales and speaking fees.  That’s still an attainable goal.  If he gets a prime time convention speech out of it, that’s priceless free advertising for Newt, Inc.  Notice he isn’t hitting Romney as hard these days?

  33. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 2:15 am

     New Jersey also has a district system, but is listed as “winner take all” because the winner of a CD takes all the delegates from that CD and like CA, there  are a few statewide delegates which are winner take all.

    These network guys don’t do their homework at all.

  34. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 2:28 am

    Illinois apportions delegates by district, and Santorum failed to file a slate for four of the 18 districts, so that’s 12 of the 69 total he can’t win.  One report said they were districts he would have been competitive in, but I have no way of knowing that, they weren’t specific enough about it.

    Puerto Rico is winner take all, 23 delegates.  Louisiana only puts up 25 of their 46 delegates, split proportionally among candidates who win at least 25% of the vote, the rest, and the district delegates, are unpledged.

    After that, it’s April and three winner take alls in DC, MD, and WI.  The last WI polling had Santorum up, but that was also when he was ahead nationally.

  35. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 3:49 am

     In January, Romney raised $6.2 million against Santorum’s $4.5 million, an advantage of $1.7 million.  In February, he out-raised him by $2.5 million.

    Way to narrow the money gap!

  36. Lloyd Albano
    March 14th, 2012 @ 4:18 am

    Yes, tho my impression is NJ is fairly RINOesque compared to Cali. They do border Pennsylvania tho. The point is that other than maybe Illinois & Utah, and maybe NY, the rest of the schedule offers relatively few big pickup opps for Mitt other than NJ and Cali near the end. In fact I wonder about NY going for Romney, especially upstate. Also, it may not even matter if Newt decides to take his ball & go home if his credibility just gets shot.

  37. K-Bob
    March 14th, 2012 @ 4:39 am

    The Ohio DNR would probably find that fracking caused the tremors in Vanuatu.

  38. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 4:48 am

     NY uses a proportional system by CD, too, so Santorum might have some chances in the western provinces, Syracuse, etc.  They haven’t been sending social conservatives to Washington or Albany too much lately, though.  Most of the pundits have figured the state a Romney stronghold.

    McCain won the state in ’08 with nearly 50% to Romney’s 26 and Huckabee’s 10.

    Maryland and Delaware are winner take all, too.

  39. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 4:53 am

    Hawaii 99% in – Romney 46%, Santorum 25, Paul 18, Gingrich 11.

    The 11 at-large delegates are awarded strictly proportionally, so as it stands right now that would be Romney 5, Santorum 3, Paul 2, Gingrich 1.

    The three CDs have three delegates each, awarded proportionally, so while we can presume they will split between Romney and Santorum, it’s impossible to know the exact distribution of those 9 until the individual district reports are analyzed (I don’t see them online yet).

    The most likely outcome statistically would be 5-4 Romney, but he could have a 6-3 split, too, of the district delegates.

    Hawaii also gets 3 RNC committeeman seats, but by rule they must be unpledged.

  40. Adjoran
    March 14th, 2012 @ 5:02 am

    The actual delegate proportioning in Alabama and Mississippi is arcane – as with many states, it’s proportional within CDs and then among some at-large, with some reserved uncommitted seats.

    Politico is showing Alabama:  Santorum 16, Gingrich 12, Romney 10, uncommitted 12, and Mississippi as Santorum 13, Gingrich 12, Romney 12, uncommitted 3 (which I assume are the RNC slots).

    Add in the results from Samoa and the estimate from Hawaii and we have for the night:  Romney 41-42, Santorum 35-36, Gingrich 25, Paul 2.

    Note that on a night rated as “FREAKING HUGE!” for Santorum by a neutral and objective observer, Romney apparently expanded his delegate lead.There is a message in there somewhere.

  41. Datechguy's Blog » Blog Archive » Ok can we start taking Santorum as nominee a little more seriously now? » Datechguy's Blog
    March 14th, 2012 @ 8:05 am

    […] we not see stories yesterday before the close of polls showing Mitt Romney ahead in Mississippi and Alabama “stealing” a primary? Did we not hear Mitt Romney speak himself about Santorum’s […]

  42. Bob Belvedere
    March 14th, 2012 @ 8:14 am

    With the 1:05 Am Update, I see I commented too soon.

    Question: Is Vanuatu the new Lourdes?

  43. Bob Belvedere
    March 14th, 2012 @ 8:20 am

    Willard had nothing to do with that.

    It was the conservative Democratic Speaker, Tom ‘Felon’ Finneran who pushed through the ‘Rainy Day Fund’, getting the President Of The Senate Robert Travellini to go along with him in exchange for such things as more patronage jobs.

  44. Bob Belvedere
    March 14th, 2012 @ 8:24 am

    Thanks, Adj.

  45. Bob Belvedere
    March 14th, 2012 @ 8:27 am

    The message is: Conservatives [heart] Not-Romney.

  46. Santorum’s Alabama and Mississippi victory speech, from Louisiana | Twitchy
    March 14th, 2012 @ 8:30 am

    […] Future US Ambassador to Vanuatu Stacy McCain liveblogged the evening’s results. Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:LikeBe the first to like this post. blog comments powered by Disqus var disqus_url = 'http://twitchy.com/2012/03/14/santorums-alabama-and-mississippi-victory-speech-from-louisiana/'; var disqus_identifier = '6202 http://twitchy.com/?p=6202'; var disqus_container_id = 'disqus_thread'; var disqus_domain = 'disqus.com'; var disqus_shortname = 'twitchy'; var disqus_config = function () { var config = this; // Access to the config object /* All currently supported events: * preData — fires just before we request for initial data * preInit – fires after we get initial data but before we load any dependencies * onInit – fires when all dependencies are resolved but before dtpl template is rendered * afterRender – fires when template is rendered but before we show it * onReady – everything is done */ config.callbacks.preData.push(function() { // clear out the container (its filled for SEO/legacy purposes) document.getElementById(disqus_container_id).innerHTML = ''; }) config.callbacks.onReady.push(function() { // sync comments in the background so we don't block the page var req = new XMLHttpRequest(); req.open('GET', '?cf_action=sync_comments&post_id=6202', true); req.send(null); }); }; var facebookXdReceiverPath = 'http://thisistwitchy.wordpress.com/wp-content/themes/vip/plugins/disqus/xd_receiver.htm'; var DsqLocal = { 'trackbacks': [ ], 'trackback_url': 'http://twitchy.com/2012/03/14/santorums-alabama-and-mississippi-victory-speech-from-louisiana/trackback/' }; (function() { var dsq = document.createElement('script'); dsq.type = 'text/javascript'; dsq.async = true; dsq.src = 'http://' + disqus_shortname + '.' + disqus_domain + '/embed.js?pname=wordpress&pver=2.40'; (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(dsq); })(); […]

  47. SDN
    March 14th, 2012 @ 9:16 am

    Yep, just like there were plenty of Tories in 1776. People are easy to bribe; that’s why the Founders had a real case of the ass with “mobocracy”. 

  48. richard mcenroe
    March 14th, 2012 @ 10:12 am

     Hey, Obama has been doing all he could to mobilize the SoCon vote!  He’s just one man, dammit!

  49. Pathfinder's wife
    March 14th, 2012 @ 10:26 am

    No, Gingrich needs to get out or at least seriously consider it.  He needed to win big in the southern states and do well in the midwest; this result is not favourable at all for him.
    Time to gracefully bow out and see who will give him a place at their table.

  50. Pathfinder's wife
    March 14th, 2012 @ 10:32 am

    The areas of IL that the GOP power brokers regularly hold sway will likely go to Mitt, but the state is a toss up.
    Ron Paul won the straw poll, much to the obvious embarassment of the party leaders here (so that tells me they weren’t expecting it).

    The average voter in IL is in a dangerous mood vis a vis voting for who the big shots order them to vote for — anything could happen.