The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Do You Believe the Ohio Polls?

Posted on | September 29, 2012 | 38 Comments

McDonald’s sign in Galion, Ohio, offers congratulations to local
high school football players David Nay and Nathan Cass.

GALION, Ohio
A recent series of three polls — by the Washington Post, Quinnipiac and Fox News — show Mitt Romney getting blown out of the water in Ohio, and those of us who are skeptical about these numbers (c’mon, 10 points?) are being derided as “poll denialists.”

It is worth pointing out that these polls were all taken in the immediate aftermath of the “secret video” uproar, and all of them are now at least five days out of date. The Fox poll was taken Sept. 16-18, the WaPo poll was taken Sept. 19-23 and Quinnipiac’s poll was taken Sept. 18-24.

There has been no new public polling since Monday, which is significant in that Paul Ryan and Romney spent three days this week campaigning in Ohio — Lima, Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus, Cleveland and Toledo. We must ask: Do polls matter more than the campaigns themselves? Do the national media control the narrative to such an extent that 4,000 people turning out for Romney in Toledo can be dismissed as irrelevant? Is all the grassroots effort by Americans for Prosperity moot?

We’re still four days away from the first debate, Wednesday in Denver, and yet we are being told that Obama’s headed for a landslide victory in Ohio, and thus re-election Nov. 6.

Really? Reports of declining Democrat registrations don’t justify even a tiny smidgen of doubt about this allegedly foregone conclusion? Let’s consult another poll:

A new survey by Gallup asked Americans how much trust and confidence they have in the mass media — newspapers, television and radio — when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately and fairly: a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, or none at all. The result shows that “trust” disappeared long ago. Trust becomes disgust.
Gallup has been taking this measurement over the past decade or so, and the erosion of trust has been consistent and steady since at least 1998. Twelve years ago, 53 percent of Americans told Gallup that they had “a great deal” or at least “a fair amount” of trust in the media. By this year, only 40 percent of Americans put their trust in newspapers, television and radio to tell them what’s going on in the world. A remarkable 60 percent said they had “not very much” trust or “none at all.”

How do underdog candidates — and let’s admit Mitt is the underdog at this stage of the campaign — cut through the media filter? On Wednesday, for the first time, Americans are going to get a chance to see Romney and Obama on the same stage, head-to-head, and if you think that debate is going to be a walkover for Obama, you don’t remember the Jan. 26 debate in Jacksonville, Fla., where Mitt fatally lacerated Newt Gingrich.

Keep in mind that Romney doesn’t have to be declared hands-down winner of that debate in order to “win.” All he has to do is to “look presidential,” avoid gaffes and get in a couple of good zingers and everything that happened before will be forgotten.

Should that happen — if Mitt scores at least a draw in the first debate — the narrative changes and, by the time Paul Ryan meets Joe Biden in the Oct. 11 vice-presidential debate, we’ll be hearing about a race that is a neck-and-neck horse race.

Yet there are those Ohio polls, and there are those who are willing to take the polls as evidence that the campaign is all but over. Doug Ross lists some of the improbable beliefs necessary to buy into this argument:

[Y]ou have to believe that the Tea Party never organized or simply disappeared into thin air
[Y]ou have to believe that Obama’s act of adding $6 trillion — 60 percent — to the national debt, which has resulted in the country’s first credit downgrade, is wildly popular . . .
[Y]ou have to believe that the 2010 tidal wave election never happened

You don’t believe that, do you? No, of course not.

Frankly, despite all the certainty of the pollsters and pundits, I don’t think most people in Ohio (or anywhere else) are paying much attention to the campaign at this point. In the parking lot of this McDonald’s in Galion, there is not a single car with a bumper sticker for either Obama or Romney and, driving around the state this week, I haven’t seen a lot of yard signs.

Obama may be ahead in Ohio right now, but the campaign is far from over, because many voters haven’t yet made up their minds. The attempt by the Obamaphile media to create the appearance of an early decision — with the help of the polling firm of “Madoff, Marist, Quinnipiac and Ponzi” — ought to be rejected as the propaganda ploy it really is.

Understand that most Ohioans are currently more concerned with Ohio State football (the Buckeyes beat Michigan State 17-16 today) than they are with the upcoming election. These sensible Midwesterners, who two years ago elected Republican John Kasich govern0r and Republican Rob Portman to the Senate, are unlikely to buy into a lot of media hype going ’round.

 



 

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Comments

  • http://twitter.com/Kala_Bon Tom Callow

    The lies are becoming more outrageous and the voices WAAAY more strident as election day nears, especially here in Ohio, where almost all the papers at least 3 times a week put anti-Romney headline spins above the fold. Its so shamefull but moreso it is sad.
    They all claim to makeup the headlines to “attract readers” and all claim that someone else started it.
    That argument is hard to swallow when they are just spouting pollutico’s points of the day or the O campaign’s lie of the moment.
    Enough opinion, here is my anecdotal evidence from working the phone banks and precinct walks. The R electorate is enthused to vote, and are certain to turn out to vote.
    The Tea Party is working the vote and the phone banks and the walks.
    Many people working the phone banks are reporting 80%+ for Romney-Ryan, … But none of those are over the Obama-phone mind control device.
    Keep strong, keep fighting, the lies are only going to get worse and louder.
    They are doing all they can to suppress turnout, but it is not going to work this time.

  • Jen W

    I live in central Ohio. In my county (I think, not sure if it is countywide or my town), we have an ordinance that prohibits the display of political signs more than 30 days prior to an election. Next weekend is that 30 day mark. I have my Romney sign in the garage ready to go. I did have to stop by the local Romney Victory Center three times before I could get my sign, as there is a huge demand for them and they ran out quickly every time they got them in.

    That said, there are a handful of people who have started to put out political signs. I’ve seen more signs for local races than the presidential race, but I’ve seen two Romney signs to one Obama (and that Obama sign has been there since 2008, no joke, as it is faded and torn), as well as a “Save America, Vote Republican” sign. In a week to 10 days, you will really see the yard signs spring up throughout Ohio.

    Do I believe the polls? No way. Is it close in Ohio? Probably (that woman in the Obama phone video shows you what we’re up against), but I believe Mitt can take it.

  • AnonymousDrivel

    It still boils down to SCoaMF versus Not Obama no matter what the polls and media say. Voters will still look around and say to themselves, “Do I really want another four years of THIS? This is a disaster and the trendline everywhere is a downgrade for America. Seriously, SCoaMF is the BEST we can do? I think not.”

    Carter redux wherein we don’t need a Reagan to spectacularly outperform in a debate. The debate is, “You want more of that guy? Are you a fookin’ idiot?”

  • http://wizbangblog.com/ Adjoran

    Hmmm. So we are being told the Ohio electorate will be MORE Democratic than it was in the wave elections of 2006 & 2008, while at the same time Democratic registration has significantly declined?

    The same thing is true in most of the states being polled.

    In the immortal words of Dr. Henry Lee, “Something wrong.”

  • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady

    It is a close election. It has been so for months. Things will break one way or the other after the debates.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_MJGP4QXZ5PRW2MFA5E25CV2WNU rosalie

    “These sensible Midwesterners, who two years ago elected Republican John Kasich govern0r and Republican Rob Portman to the Senate, are unlikely to buy into a lot of media hype going ’round.”
    That’s very true. I never thought about that.

  • http://twitter.com/John_Scotus John Scotus

    But Obama is surging in Ohio, I tell you! He’s surging! (sputter, sputter). Now I need to go get some more meds.

  • pacoent
  • http://twitter.com/BeccaJLower Becca Lower

    Are you sure that you aren’t secretly an Ohioan, Stacy? Almost too much common sense here!

  • JeffS

    Waiting for the paid trolls, shilling for Obama, in 5, 4, 3, …….

  • reliapundit

    IF U POLL 100 DEMS THEN OBAMA GETS 98% VOTES.

    IF U POLL 100 REPS THEN ROMNEY GETS 98%.

    IF U POLL 60 DEMS AND 40 REPS, THEN OBAMA WINS IN A LANDSLIDE.

    IF U THINK INDS WILL GO FOR OBAMA OVER ROMNEY, THEN U R NUTS.

    IF U THINK JEWS OR BLACKS OR CATHOLICS WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA IN THE SAME NUMBERS THIS TIME AS LAST, THEN U R IN FANTASYLAND.

    OBAMA’S FUNDRAISING AND CROWDS AND DEM REGISTRATION AND DEM ABSENTEE BALLOTING ALL LAD 2008.

    MITT IS WELL AHEAD RIGHT NOW AND WILL WIN.

  • Finrod Felagund

    There’s another kind of Ohio poll out there, and it’s absentee ballots requested, divided by party. Moe Lane is following this; Democrats are at 61% of the rate of 2008, whereas Republicans are at 101%:

    http://moelane.com/2012/09/27/tracking-ohios-absentee-ballot-requests/

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  • http://wizbangblog.com/ Adjoran

    Another leftist meme now is that even though the Democratic registration in Ohio is down 490,000 in 4 years, the increased # of independents will “lean Democrat” because of the auto bailout.

    It seems to me that those who changed their registration from Democrat to Independent aren’t moving or leaning in a Democrat direction. I could be wrong, but I’m not, no, I’m not.

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    On Beck’s channel Friday, GB was talking with Ralph Reed, who pointed out something I guarantee the polls are not picking up:

    Reed said that Evangelical Christians are participating in this election in record numbers. When we consider that in 2008 Evangelical participation was down from previous elections, and also that Evangelical Christians are a HUGE group that is highly-motivated to get out the vote, …well let’s just say that Obama’s chances look anemic, even in some fairly blue states.

    (EDIT: and by “participating,” I mean requesting signs, knocking on doors, writing letters, and sending donations.)

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    I think Obama has the UAW membership in his back pocket. I get this from talking with those guys.

    But Ohio is complex. Honda has a big plant there (not unionized), as well as Ford (not Government-ized). According to this five-year-old report, that makes the balance of Auto workers on the non-government side about equal to the ones in GM and Chrysler. (I’m not digging for newer data, because it’s not a big deal), Further, the steel mills in the east are booming on the growth in gas drilling and wells that everyone knows Obama will happily kill if he gets a chance.

    So it’s Union vs. Union. Coal and Steel guys know Obama wants their jobs to disappear. Auto guys know theirs might be in trouble if Obama’s grip on GM is removed, and GM has to sink or swim on its own.

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  • Anamika
  • Anamika

    Most of political partisan humanity is stuck in mind-control and has not opened them even an iota, a crack, to let the sunlight in. Air out all the ghosts, all the pretenses, the pettiness, all the meanness. All the rancor and self-obsession to even consider that one could be *wrong* no matter how brilliant and high-minded one THINKS s/he is.

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    In the picture of the MacDonald’s sign, I can sort of see having a player who’s 21. Some guys just take a while to graduate. But 50?

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    I’ve noticed most of them really suck at it, too. Which makes me wonder if I can get paid to do a terrible job of trolling for Obama, too.

    Nevermind. I’d probably accidentally help the man.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Patrick-McKenna/100001461954048 Patrick McKenna

    Baghdad Bob speaks.

  • JeffS

    Sounds like you’re hitting the nail, Stacy, if the shilling sad sacks over at sadly no are pulling out their hacked copy of Photoshop.

    You don’t earn their ire all that often; this must be an especially sensitive subject for them. Either that, or their lord and master is getting mighty nervous.

  • JeffS

    Yup. Anamika showed up.

  • Anamika

    I am a Big O supporter, it’s true.

    And as of this moment I have 1,063 FB friends, some of whom are RABID Republican assholes, imo. But I stay away from posting political stuff, esp, on FB. Which isn’t the case here, so you can call me a troll at ToM, but by no means I’m a paid one. As usual, you (and your prediction) are proven wrong.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/kcrary1 Kay Crary

    I’m not sure the lack of signs signals inattention. I believe there is such ranccor between and among the parties involved, many have decided not to get their feet wet. But they will vote, and I’m pretty sure they will want to change this depressing atmosphere with Romney/Ryan! Free speech is ingrained and many of us are feeling restrained, I say landslide Romney

  • http://www.facebook.com/kcrary1 Kay Crary

    With you on that med thing.

  • Wombat_socho

    Your honesty is appreciated, and in truth, you’re a lot less obnoxious than a lot of the latecomers.

  • http://twitter.com/BeccaJLower Becca Lower

    Good point, K-Bob, and one that hasn’t been talked about in the poll conversation. People also have to remember that there are many Catholics (Dems & GOP) in SW Ohio. That will be a problem for The Anointed One in ’12.

  • http://twitter.com/BeccaJLower Becca Lower

    What?

  • http://twitter.com/BeccaJLower Becca Lower

    K-Dog, people here (Ohio) might also be aware of the GM/Delphi retirees getting ripped off. Most of the bad stuff happened to Ohioans. Look at Matthew Boyle’s dossier at the DC.

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    Yeoww!

    (Rep. Darryll) Issa and (Ohio Republican Rep. Mike) Turner cited an early August report in The Daily Caller that
    included emails obtained and published showing that the Treasury
    Department and the White House drove the cutoff of 20,000 nonunion
    Delphi autoworker retirees’ pensions.

    I forgot about that. My God, the disaster is so bad it’s like WWII, where a battle that costs a thousand lives is merely one on a long list somewhere.

    Bill Whittle was right. Obama is a bastard.

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    Why is it so hard for Obama supporters to discuss things rationally? We’ve had to block several lately at Scoops. I don’t mind hearty disagreement. Heck, it’s more fun than being in lockstep. But you can’t have a one-sided dialogue, which is all that trolling is, really.

  • http://www.facebook.com/mark.j.goluskin Mark J. Goluskin

    Stacy, my friend. I plucked this out of this excellent post:
    The attempt by the Obamaphile media. . .
    I will give you permission to use this only if you gove me the credit.
    OBAMAWHORE MEDIA.
    Because that is what it had become and is even more whore with each passing day.
    Your welcome!

  • http://twitter.com/BeccaJLower Becca Lower

    Yup, that was Friday. On Thursday, Minority Leader McConnell was on board as well. http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/27/mitch-mcconnell-bashes-justice-dept-for-media-matters-coordination/

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