The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

The Obama-Clinton “Prisoner’s Dilemma”

Posted on | October 13, 2012 | 56 Comments

by Smitty

While they have a senior-subordinate relationship, at that altitude, Obama and Clinton are more like peers, especially in the broader scope of the Democrat Party, where Barack is hoping Bill will loan enough luster to Obama to somehow win re-election. Thus, Benghazi-quiddick (we should limit the -gate suffix on scandals lacking a death toll) resembles the classic game theory example The Prisoner’s Dilemma:

Two men are arrested, but the police do not have enough information for a conviction. The police separate the two men, and offer both the same deal: if one testifies against his partner (defects/betrays), and the other remains silent (cooperates with/assists his partner), the betrayer goes free and the one that remains silent gets a one-year sentence. If both remain silent, both are sentenced to only one month in jail on a minor charge. If each ‘rats out’ the other, each receives a three-month sentence. Each prisoner must choose either to betray or remain silent; the decision of each is kept secret from his partner. What should they do? If it is assumed that each player is only concerned with lessening his own time in jail, the game becomes a non-zero sum game where the two players may either assist or betray the other. The sole concern of the prisoners seems to be increasing his own reward. The interesting symmetry of this problem is that the optimal decision for each is to betray the other, even though they would be better off if they both cooperated.

Here, we have two public figures who both look negligent over a tragedy. And they hold grudges against each other going back. They can both get hammered together, or can try to minimize their damage by pinning blame on the other.

Clinton absorbs Obama accuses
Clinton accuses In this variant, Clinton steps up and takes responsibility for failures as Secretary of State, scuttling her 2016 hopes, with the idea of saving Obama’s re-election.
I’ll point you to Kevin DuJan at HillBuzz for that analysis.		 If they both escalates the accusatory posturing, then the bleeding may not stop until both are completely ruined.
Yet, accusations are their stock in trade. They just have to do it subtly.
Obama absorbs They both stand there and take the hit. Re-election now, and possible election in 2016 for Hillary only happens if the electorate enjoys some truly raging outburst of amnesia.
Unlikely in Internet Age, thank you, Al Gore.
Taking responsibility is something you make your opposition do. Never apologize, never explain. Which outs both of them as lousy leaders.		 Obama steps up and admits how badly he tubed Benghazi-quiddick, in order to save Hillary’s 2016 presidential hopes.

The bad news about this ‘game’ is that the price of admission is four human sacrifices. Those deaths were tragic for the four, and their families. The shame for the United States, and the increased boldness of our enemies, is far worse. Then there is the damage done to the validity, the basic confidence the people have in our government, brought on by the shameless deceits of the Obama Administration.

No good can come of the Obama-Clinton game. Beyond the entertainment value, the best we can hope for is minimal collateral damage.

More at Granite Grok, and Roger Simon analyzes the electoral impact and the general pulse of the Left.

via Breitbart

Update: thank you for linking, Instapundit, Hogewash, Victory Girls, and Dinocrat.

Update II: linked at God’s Own Crunk. Also, for those who dislike the labeling in the table, please feel free to offer an improved version somewhere on this vast internet. Otherwise, my guess is you’re firing for effect. In the wrong direction.

Update III: more at Daily Pundit:

Some people think Barack Obama is cold and calculating. I don’t. I think he’s a tangled ball of twisted emotions, primary among which are fear and hatred. Some part of him might understand that he’ll damage himself by trying to damage the Clintons, but I just don’t think he’ll be able to help himself.

Getting inside that noggin isn’t the least bit interesting to me. I just want to see BHO distanced from levers of power.

Category: Barack Obama, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Uncategorized

Comments

56 Responses to “The Obama-Clinton “Prisoner’s Dilemma””

  1. McGehee
    October 13th, 2012 @ 11:58 am

    If Obama loses re-election, nothing the Clintons can do for him will help — whereas the Clintons have some basis for believing they can weather almost any storm that isn’t 100% their own doing (and some that are).

    Therefore I think Obama will crack first, only to have the full weight of Clintonista wrath dropped on him both before and after the election. Indeed, I suspect he’s already vbeing warned — subtly — that he doesn’t hold the high card in this game precisely because he’s under more time pressure.

    Won’t matter. His supporters might hold out hope for a 2016 comeback if Romney wins next month, but Obama doesn’t want to go to the wilderness yet. He would devour Sasha and Malia alive on national television to save his job.

  2. Charles
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:04 pm

    Put it on the deputy works for Hillary as well as Barack.

  3. smitty
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:10 pm

    Ah, yes: they punish the monkey, and let the organ grinder go. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFGoY4N_Fc4

  4. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:26 pm

    For both Hillary and Barack, the best thing to do is not talk about this and hope it goes away. Which is why every blogger and political pundit on the right should run two or three stories a day on Libya.

    This is not just politics. Libya was a fiasco and is certainly grounds not to reelect Obama (alone). Four Americans are dead. It showed a lack of character by the Commander in Chief, a coverup that is arguably an impeachable offense, and it could have been prevented.

    Some may say: Well what about 9/11? George Bush did not blame some stupid video or pass the buck. Everyone recognized that event as a huge failure of everyone in government (the few who saw it coming were not listened to).

  5. NeoKong
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:27 pm

    Hillary will never be a president.
    2008 was her one and only chance and it was stolen from her by the DNC and handed over to Obama who abruptly led the party of a cliff. If Romney wins it will be a long time before Democrats will be trusted again.

  6. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:27 pm

    He cannot afford to do that now. It would be fatal to his reelection.

  7. JeffWeimer
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:28 pm

    Hey Chris, Instalanche.

  8. disqus_AfAzcyDjVO
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:31 pm

    All of this assumes neither has serious dirt on the other. But both the Clintons and Obama have based their entire political career on dealing dirt on other people — especially Obama, who quite literally might not have won two previous elections except for the magical appearance of really bad information about his opponents.

    So suppose one prisoner knows some really damaging stuff about the other. This clearly changes the equation. First, is it nasty enough to kill the other’s candidacy? Second, does each party know something about the other that is disqualifying, and does the other know that the information is in the other’s hands?

    Hmmm. Couldn’t happen to a better bunch. Gotta buy more popcorn.

  9. higgins1990
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:31 pm

    And I didn’t think I could despise the liberal mainstream media any more…

  10. Bandit
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:32 pm

    I don’t see either of them taking the hit for anybody. 2 rats on 1 sinking ship.

  11. truenorth
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:33 pm

    Yes there are a few other variations. One is blame the deputies and underlings and then wait for the left wing press to remain mostly silently about it for a while and then begin characterizing it as right wing conspiracy politics.

    The other is to blame no one and remain silent and then wait for the left wing press to remain mostly silent about it for a while and then begins characterizing it as right wing conspiracy politics.

    See a pattern here? No coincidence that this story leads the O’Reilly Report on Fox while barely getting a mention on ABCCBSNBCMSNBCCNN etc.

  12. Anon Y. Mous
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:45 pm

    You setup the labels on the table incorrectly. You have it so that Clinton absorbs & Clinton accuses intersect. You should switch the row 1 Clinton accuses label with the column 2 Obama accuses label.

  13. rosalie
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:53 pm

    I wonder if Bill wants her to be president more than she does? She may have lost the fire in her belly for it.

  14. Dinocrat » Blog Archive » Two crimes
    October 13th, 2012 @ 12:55 pm

    […] read an interesting discussion of the Prisoner’s dilemma and its application to Clinton and Obama. But it’s not really relevant. They’re both […]

  15. McGehee
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:11 pm

    What, the devouring the girls thing? Give it a couple more weeks for the panic and desperation to ferment — and we shall see what we shall see.

  16. McGehee
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:14 pm

    I still think that, doomed to failure as it would have been, the stars were in their best alignment for her in 2004.

    Which, sucks to be her I guess.

  17. McGehee
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:15 pm

    Remember that Hillary also hails from Chicago — in fact, unlike Obama she was born and raised there.

  18. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:16 pm

    I hope you are right. It would be quite entertaining to watch.

  19. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:16 pm

    I get that feeling too.

  20. Bob Belvedere
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:25 pm

    Obama will do what Valerie Jarrett [supported by Lady Michbeth] tell him to do. They’ve both got the ‘goods’ on him and his real life.

  21. Junie3
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:26 pm

    What a tangled web we weave when we stand at the podium together to deceive. Thank you Lord for exposing the deception of these two. More please. 4 dead in Benghazi, 200 + F&F, millions of unborn and throwing Israel under the bus. Measure for measure, the way of The Lord.

  22. Bob Belvedere
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:27 pm

    While I think we must keep this story alive, hammering it too much will cause people to start seeing the topic as so much background noise. It’s a delicate balance. Hammer the story, but use less swings and drive the nails in the coffin with less strokes.

  23. McGehee
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:30 pm

    Neither has any reason to spare the Clintons — in fact, I’d be surprised if FLOTUS hasn’t been lobbying for Hillary to be sub-bussed for four years or more.

  24. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 13th, 2012 @ 1:53 pm

    Talking about devouring: OU is BBQing the Longhorns. Sooners Rule 5

  25. Instapundit » Blog Archive » PUSHBACK: Ex-CIA chief: White House, not intel community, to blame for Benghazi. So between blam…
    October 13th, 2012 @ 2:11 pm

    […] UPDATE: The Obama-Clinton Prisoner’s Dilemma. “Here, we have two public figures who both look negligent over a tragedy. And they hold […]

  26. Jaynie59
    October 13th, 2012 @ 2:27 pm

    Neither of them has to do anything. The press will protect both of them and the Republicans won’t do anything about it even if Romney wins in a landslide and the Republicans take back control of the Senate. And I’m not saying that as some nutjob Libertarian with a “both sides are just as bad” mentality. The sad fact is that Republicans are incapable of seeing today’s Democrat Party for what it is and will refuse to pursue anything that may invite charges of vindictiveness. For that reason alone they will drop it.
    There is one thing both Obama and Hillary can do to take the pressure off, and it may also help Obama win the election. Bill Clinton needs to watch his back. Especially in the week leading up to the election. If I were him I’d find a nice island somewhere, not tell anyone where I am, and enjoy the beach. From about October 28th until November 7th. Or however long it takes to plan a state funeral for the 5th.

  27. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 13th, 2012 @ 2:38 pm

    The Badgers are beating Purdue pretty badly…

  28. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    October 13th, 2012 @ 2:39 pm

    Valerie may be dumb enough to turn on Bill and Bill will not hesitate to stick the shiv into both her and Obama.

  29. teapartydoc
    October 13th, 2012 @ 2:42 pm

    Hillary bet early on that BHO would serve two terms, and stayed at her post because she was waiting her turn. She demurred when offered the VP slot because of the slight possibility that she could be hurt if she was too closely tied to a failing administration. Now she has to worry about how the left-wing base would react if she rats on the boss. It is obvious even from a distance that this was discussed at the highest levels, even early on, because of the obvious coordination of the anti-muslim video talking points. In all likelihood, every aspect of the Libyan project has been discussed at every level as well because of it’s centrality to the diplomatic model the administration has been attempting to create. My guess is that when she does rat him out, it will be in a very subtle manner that will only be interpreted as such in retrospect, but soon enough to hurt him before the election. This is not to say that Hillary is calculating…

  30. WJJ Hoge
    October 13th, 2012 @ 2:58 pm

    The optimum solution is for Obama to lose the election and for neither of them to run in 2016.

  31. The Gordian Knot Solution | hogewash
    October 13th, 2012 @ 3:07 pm

    […] Gordian Knot Solution Posted on 13 October, 2012 by wjjhoge Smitty has a fine post up on how formal game theory would deal with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton sorting out who […]

  32. McGehee
    October 13th, 2012 @ 3:09 pm

    Just looked in on Texas-OU — the Sooners are looking a lot like my wife’s current alma mater, Mississippi State, in their Week 1 game against Jackson State.

  33. William T Quick
    October 13th, 2012 @ 3:23 pm

    I linked this, Smitty, but as an addendum to my own post about Obama’s Narcissistic Personality Disorder, coming up later today. I just don’t think Obama will be able to keep from indulging his hatred and fear of the Clintons, especially B.J., who just showed him up big time all over again at the convention.

  34. Soylent Green
    October 13th, 2012 @ 3:55 pm

    On a related note, who eats this turd burger…?

    http://sonofsoylentgreen.wordpress.com/2012/10/13/thermageddon-hoax-is-a-national-security-issue/

  35. Werbaz neutron
    October 13th, 2012 @ 4:40 pm

    Beelzebubba will hire every democrat lawyer with any political power, a good PR firm or three, Spend a lot of time talking it up with a velvet glove against Obie. Hilary will send out surrogates to take no prisoners. Ulsterman will hear more from the White House Insider who may be Clinton himself anyway.

  36. Adjoran
    October 13th, 2012 @ 4:45 pm

    But if she ever made it to President, it would suck to be us.

  37. Adjoran
    October 13th, 2012 @ 4:51 pm

    The larger point is that Obama refuses to take responsibility for anything. He never has stood up in his entire life.

    As President, the closest he’s come to taking responsibility for anything was when confronted with the overwhelming public opposition to ObamaCare. He said he should have explained it better, talked to the public more. He gave 54 speeches on the subject in a year anyway, of course.

    He said something similar to a question about regrets or what he might do differently. He said it isn’t enough to get the policy right (heh), you need to sell it to those dumb hick voters. Well, it’s not an exact quote, maybe.

  38. Clintons v Obama, Blame Game on Benghazi, and LINKS!
    October 13th, 2012 @ 4:55 pm

    […] fact, there’s already pushback against the White House position. I love how The Other McCain describes this: “Here, we have two public figures who both look negligent over a tragedy. And they hold grudges […]

  39. papertiguer
    October 13th, 2012 @ 5:02 pm

    another scenario – electorate sickens of both contestants – finds the game fatiguing and confusing – wraps in newspaper and heads on down to good will

  40. papertiguer
    October 13th, 2012 @ 5:09 pm

    I believe Nordstrum – had an interlude under State Dept in Indonesia and just to get a 5 drawer dresser out of them was more than one of the tasks of Hercules. I can see them stonewalling on security – especially since the arab spring erased 2,000 years of feudal thinking – We’re told its all cakes and ale over there by the mainstream press.

  41. smitty
    October 13th, 2012 @ 5:48 pm

    Yes. That’s the course where (hypothetically of course) she takes responsibility.

  42. The Prisoner’s Dilemma « God's Own Crunk
    October 13th, 2012 @ 6:28 pm

    […] This. […]

  43. SophieCT
    October 13th, 2012 @ 7:59 pm

    It will be about one election cycle. Romney is, after all, a Republican, and as inept as the Democrats are (and they are), the Republicans are war-mongering authoritarians. There’s only so much of that the citizenship can take.

  44. The Emperor of the Empty Suit Versus the Queen of Mean | Daily Pundit
    October 13th, 2012 @ 8:01 pm

    […] UPDATE:  Smitty looks into the Prisoner’s Dilemma aspect of this situation:  The Obama-Clinton “Prisoner’s Dilemma” : The Other McCain […]

  45. SophieCT
    October 13th, 2012 @ 8:04 pm

    While I do think THIS story deserves far more attention, there are lots of “stories” that lead on the O’Reilly Report on Fox while barely getting a mention on ABCCBSNBCMSNBCCNN etc. Just because Fox or O’Reilly carrry a story, doesn’t make it newsworthy. In fact, usually when they harp on a story, there’s no there there.

  46. SophieCT
    October 13th, 2012 @ 8:06 pm

    Here’s an odd idea: what if neither of them did anything wrong? What if it really was neither of their fault? Just a thought…

  47. McGehee
    October 13th, 2012 @ 8:21 pm

    The guilty flee where none pursueth. They’re both too obviously trying to dodge blame for this to be a possibility.

  48. smitty
    October 13th, 2012 @ 8:27 pm

    Uh, Sophie: you’ve got 4 bodies which contend that there has at LEAST been a sin of omission.
    It is impossible to desire the office and its trappings while escaping the responsibilities attendant with the office. Secretary of State, or POTUS.
    If it happens on your watch, it’s your fault. Don’t make a Paul Anka outta me. That’s JUST THE WAY IT IS.

  49. Anon Y. Mous
    October 13th, 2012 @ 8:35 pm

    That can’t be right. How can Clinton absorb and accuse at the same time? She has two choices: absorb or accuse. Obama has the same two choices. But, neither of them can choose both paths at the same time. They each have to make their choice.

  50. JeffS
    October 13th, 2012 @ 9:55 pm

    Of course Bill does. He can sit in the background, offer advise, and eat donuts to his heart’s content, all without worrying about the responsibility of being President. It’s his turn to have fun.

    For exercise to counteract those fat pills, there will be all those hawt interns for Bubba to boff.