The Other McCain

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NY-25 Prediction: Ann Marie Buerkle Will Score Landslide Victory Over Dan Maffei

Posted on | October 17, 2010 | 8 Comments

HANCOCK, N.Y. — Pete Da Tech Guy and I were driving up Highway 17 toward Binghamton when we got the call from the Lonely Conservative, informing us that Ann Marie Buerkle’s victory is now a near-certainty. However, that’s not the headline in the Syracuse Post Standard:

Dan Maffei leads Anne Marie Buerkle
by 12 points in new poll

Why is this poll such a certain indicator of a Buerkle victory Nov. 2? Because the poll was conducted by Sienna College.

On Sept. 23 — the day before the New York primary — a Sienna poll showed Rick Lazio was leading Carl Paladino by a 57%-24% margin. The very next day, Paladino stomped Lazio 62%-38%. (SEE CORRECTION BELOW)

So the Sienna poll had a margin of error of . . . oh, somewhere in the neighborhood of umpteen gazillion. You could better predict an election by drawing numbers out of a hat.

Less than two weeks ago, a GOP-commissioned poll showed a dead heat in the 25th District, and if Sienna says Maffei’s leading, that can only mean Maffei’s going to be squished flat on Election Day.

Go give Buerkle $20. Pete and I just ate at McDonald’s and now we’re ready to get back on the road again.

UPDATE: The Lonely Conservative notes some suspicious anomalies in the Sienna poll. We have no demographic breakdown of the sample, and the same poll shows Mario Cuomo leading Paladino by 34 points in this district, which was represented by Republicans until 2008.

UPDATE II: Just realized I completely misread the Sienna poll of Sept. 23. But the point about Sienna’s inaccuracy is only slightly weaker. In August, Sienna had shown Lazio leading Paladino by 13 points — 37 points off the September result, where Paladino won by 24 points.



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