The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Who Needs Dope When You’ve Got Salon?

Posted on | March 13, 2011 | 8 Comments

by Smitty

Anyone wanting to feel a little vicariously stoned is encouraged to sample the world of Thomas Schaller.

Why Republicans should run in 2012 — to lose
For some ambitious Republicans, President Obama’s improving reelection prospects may not be bad news
The Ides of March are almost upon us, but few potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates seem to have their eyes fixed squarely on the White House. As Salon’s Steve Kornacki argued recently, the most obvious reason for the largely vacant GOP field — sorry, Herman Cain — is that the prospects of a Republican beating a once-again formidable Barack Obama seem rather bleak. The 2012 Republican nomination may be a prize not worth winning. 

Only a Lefty with his head firmly planted in a dark place could set about building an argument where it’s a good idea for someone to enter a contest with intent to lose, but Schaller does just that.

The first pattern is that the party of an incumbent president running for reelection to a second or even first full term wins about two-thirds of the time 


another very powerful historical trend: the inability of either party to win the presidency thrice consecutively 


The third pattern involves capturing the Republican nomination. With the exceptions of Bush 43 and the highly unusual case of Ford, every GOP nominee in the post-Barry Goldwater era has run at least once and lost before eventually gaining the party’s nod. 

The rest of the analysis remains completely backward looking, and mentions nothing of the vast debt crisis, or the Tea Party which the total loss in confidence in either Ruling Class party engendered. I guess Schaller is a Poli-Sci prof at UMBC. Maybe Stacy McCain can swing by and enlighten the gentleman, or at least help him sober up.


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