The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

New Polls Confirm Santorum Surge in Iowa; Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry Fading

Posted on | December 30, 2011 | 31 Comments

One poll is getting the big headlines this morning:

NBC poll: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul
neck-and-neck in Iowa; Newt Gingrich in 5th

The numbers from that poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday:

Romney 23%
Paul 21%
Santorum 15%
Perry 14%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 6%

Similar numbers from a Rasmussen poll conducted Wednesday:

Romney 23%
Paul 22%
Santorum 16%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 13%
Bachmann 5%

Thesed results have been enough to move Santorum to third place in the Real Clear Politics average of Iowa polls, but there’s yet another poll — conducted Thursday by We Are America — which shows Santorum now in second place:

Romney 24%
Santorum 17%
Paul 14%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 12%
Perry 10%

All three of these polls, then, show the former front-runners Gingrich and Perry now fighting for fourth place.

Erick Erickson is frothing at the mouth and chewing the carpet.

Also, there is a graveyard, and Ace is whistling past it.

Thanks to Anthony Massa for the Twitter tip on that third poll.

Category: Election 2012, Fear and Loathing in Iowa, Iowa, Polls

Comments

31 Responses to “New Polls Confirm Santorum Surge in Iowa; Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry Fading”

  1. Zilla of the Resistance
    December 30th, 2011 @ 11:59 am

    Paulbots and Perryists hardest hit.
    Woohoo!
     

  2. Jill
    December 30th, 2011 @ 12:02 pm

    The NBC poll shows Perry increasing by 4 points as opposed to Santorum’s 6. How is that fading? Also, the margin of error is 4.8.

    This was linked by Ace:
    “Rick Perry has enjoyed the best upward trend of all candidates over the previous month’s polling at +5.5 percent .”
    http://news.yahoo.com/iowa-caucus-deadline-looms-trending-polling-072000798.html

    Just sayin.

  3. Silentcal
    December 30th, 2011 @ 12:09 pm

    He lost Pennsylvania in 2006 by 19%.   19 Percent.    He’s going nowhere, sorry.   He’s a socon big spender.  A Bush type. He’s exactly what we don’t need.

  4. Anonymous
    December 30th, 2011 @ 12:31 pm

    Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research (Dec 28, Iowa caucus intenders) : 
    Paul 17.3 %Romney 17.2Newt 16.7Santorum 13.4http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdv_Iowa_1229.pdf 

  5. MrPaulRevere
    December 30th, 2011 @ 12:33 pm

    Eric is so precious, why he coined a new term ‘earmarxist’! Such a bright boy he is…

  6. Tennwriter
    December 30th, 2011 @ 12:41 pm

    First point has been dealt with over and over again with smashing replies, and the haters just get up out of the dirt, and try again as if we have no memory of a week ago.

    The post proves that, at least right now, he’s going up. Could change.  Could go up faster for all I know.  Could get run over by a libertarian on a bycycle or a drunken Canadian goose could crash land into him. 

    Socon=True Conservative.  You want fiscal responsibility, you need socons, not spines of jello Governators.

    RSM said Santorum was a ‘brutal counterpuncher’ in debate.  Bush, who was a RINO and not a socon, had many fine qualities, but brutal counterpunching in debate was not one of them.

    Right. Because Mr. Enabler of the RINOs, we need Romney.  Well, I happen to support real change.  I don’t want to ride the car for another year and hope it doesn’t explode like the RINOS.  Nor, like the Libertarians do I want to stand around and mouth incantations while they try to transform a Model T into a SHIELD flying car.  Instead I favor someone who has accomplished change, and I think we need to pop the hood, and get out the wrenches, and get to real work.

    Rick Santorum looks to be an excellent choice for car mechanic.

  7. Guess Who’s Gonna Be Watching Hawkeye Football Tonight With Rick Santorum? : The Other McCain
    December 30th, 2011 @ 12:54 pm

    […] 30: New Polls Confirm Santorum Surge in Iowa; Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry FadingDec. 30: Rick Santorum to Ann Coulter: ‘I Mean, Ann, Should I Have Voted for Amnesty?’Dec. 29: […]

  8. Anonymous
    December 30th, 2011 @ 12:58 pm

    I really like your writing style and your blog is one of my must reads every day but I am really frustrated by your obnoxious harping about Santorum, He has no national presence, no executive experience, lost his last race a long,long time ago in his home state and has zero chance of being the candidate. Somehow his solid family life and moral character are all that matters to you. He is drawing away the conservatives that Perry needs to make his run. He is a far superior choice over Mitt and Newt with all the qualifications necessary for a commander in chief including having served int eh military. You could at least pretend to have an objective view of the race instead of using your credentials to create a false sense of momentum for your chosen candidate. You are allowing the MSM which is completely ignoring the rising poll numbers for Perry and the large turnouts he is getting at his events to push a candidate who has zero chance of winning the nomination.

  9. ThePaganTemple
    December 30th, 2011 @ 1:03 pm

    Whoa, Nellie, Bush was a RINO yes, but not a SoCon? Hell social issues was about the only thing about him that was conservative.

  10. ThePaganTemple
    December 30th, 2011 @ 1:05 pm

    Hey, Perry? What drives conservatives away from him is the fact that he can’t say shit whether he does or does not have a mouthful of it. And for the record, I’m for Bachmann, not Santorum, but Stacy has as much right to promote his candidate as any of the rest of us do. And if Santorum does end up winning, frankly I can live with that.

  11. Anonymous
    December 30th, 2011 @ 1:15 pm

    For more than 10 years, Perry has successfully governed one of the largest states in the union which requires a considerable amount of ability. He has been reelected. He has a proven record. What has Santorum done that makes him qualified to be the CEO of the largest enterprise on the face of the earth. Senators are uniquely unqualified as they only have to manage a small staff, make speeches on the floor and bear no responsibility if the proposed legislation fails. Has he proposed anything that was revolutionary, think outside the box type of ideas when he was a senator? if so, why did he get crushed by a weak, legacy candidate like Casey? Bachman is no better. She got elected in one congressional district and that is supposed to translate to a national mandate? Give me a break. You are all dreamers. So, the primary qualification to be President is to be president of your college debate society. Obama was very articulate and look how well he has done. Deeds, not words.

  12. ThePaganTemple
    December 30th, 2011 @ 1:20 pm

    Don’t you realize that we have to pull independents in order to win this election, and that if Perry gets in a debate with Obama and trips over his words like he has in some debates he’s going to look like a retarded country bumpkin? You think that’s not going to have an impact? Its just a fact, image matters, like it or not. I’d be fine with Perry if he was President, its the being able to get there I worry about, and in the meantime taking the down ticket races down in flames with him. I can hear it now-

    “Oh lookey there, its the Shrubs younger and dumber Texas cousin.”

  13. EBL
    December 30th, 2011 @ 1:41 pm

    Newt cried, credibility dies.

  14. Anonymous
    December 30th, 2011 @ 1:45 pm

    Still waiting to hear what commends Santorum other than he is a good family man and talks nice. I seem to remember that he was not quoted once after the debates as he was completely ignored. Everyone seems to demand to know the programs and policies that candidates would put in place if elected. Has Santorum issued a single position paper? Everyone was gung ho for Cain when he didn’t even know what the right of return was and yet Perry forgetting the third agency he would eliminate is grounds for dismissing his candidacy. You are being completely hypocritical. Do you think Obama is smart just because the MSM says he is? Where are his transcripts? He’s made plenty of dumb errors in his speeches. People said those things about Bush because the MSM drilled it into your head that he was dumb. He had an MBA, he flew airplanes,he listened to his generals and made the right decisions in the conduct of the war, he got reelected! The libs are going to call our candidate dumb or heartless or the wrong religion or whatever it takes to drag him down. If you want a candidate that will please the left, you are setting yourself up for heartbreak.

  15. richard mcenroe
    December 30th, 2011 @ 2:59 pm

    2008 is a long time ago?  What are you, 12? And what happened to the rest of the GOP that year?

    I could live with Perry; I respect his service; but he needs to prove to me that he was key to the success of Texas.  The stuttering stumblebum from the debates doesn’t prove that to me.

  16. richard mcenroe
    December 30th, 2011 @ 2:59 pm

    2008 is a long time ago?  What are you, 12? And what happened to the rest of the GOP that year?

    I could live with Perry; I respect his service; but he needs to prove to me that he was key to the success of Texas.  The stuttering stumblebum from the debates doesn’t prove that to me.

  17. richard mcenroe
    December 30th, 2011 @ 3:00 pm

    And dude, I don’t even have a television at this point, so the MSM ain’t a big influence.

  18. richard mcenroe
    December 30th, 2011 @ 3:00 pm

    And dude, I don’t even have a television at this point, so the MSM ain’t a big influence.

  19. richard mcenroe
    December 30th, 2011 @ 3:02 pm

    What recommends Santorum?  He ran a Dem speaker out of office and Democrats out of Congress on corruption charges.  He was the floor manager holding the vote together on welfare reform while Newt bloviated in front of the cameras.  He got us the ban on partial birth abortions.  He challenged the Bush administration when they blew off the Iranian nuke threat.  Not a bad start.

  20. richard mcenroe
    December 30th, 2011 @ 3:02 pm

    What recommends Santorum?  He ran a Dem speaker out of office and Democrats out of Congress on corruption charges.  He was the floor manager holding the vote together on welfare reform while Newt bloviated in front of the cameras.  He got us the ban on partial birth abortions.  He challenged the Bush administration when they blew off the Iranian nuke threat.  Not a bad start.

  21. Adjoran
    December 30th, 2011 @ 3:10 pm

    Statistically speaking, the differences between Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich in all three of these polls is insignificant, and would be even if it was a normal primary on Tuesday.  But it isn’t, and caucuses are not attuned to the normal primary screening methods for likely attendees.

    For example, Gingrich has virtually no ground game at all in Iowa.  Traditionally, on the GOP side, if you don’t have a good organization you have to depend on existing ones, like the evangelicals.  Since Gingrich’s idea of “family values” is porkin’ the help, I doubt they will turn out for him.  Expect his results to fall short of his polls – it is far easier to tell a robo-poll that you are going to vote than to actually spend an hour or two in a poorly-heated school cafeteria on a cold Tuesday night when you could be home watching Michigan and Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl.

    Santorum is rising in polls, but Perry’s events are drawing large crowds.  With his late start, he has to hope the evangelicals swing his way.

    So much of Paul’s support is young people and first-time caucus-goers, groups which have the lowest turnout rate for caucuses.  As  someone noted yesterday, a lot of the Paul support isn’t Paulbot fanboys, with just them he would be at his usual 5-10% depending on the parole rate in the given state.  The rest is probably a protest vote from disaffected conservatives who don’t even want to build a new white nation with no Joos, so whether they show up and who they end up voting for is still in doubt.

    So it’s still anybody’s race, and I would pay no attention at all to poll differences of less than 5% – and take those greater with a grain of salt.

  22. Adjoran
    December 30th, 2011 @ 3:10 pm

    Statistically speaking, the differences between Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich in all three of these polls is insignificant, and would be even if it was a normal primary on Tuesday.  But it isn’t, and caucuses are not attuned to the normal primary screening methods for likely attendees.

    For example, Gingrich has virtually no ground game at all in Iowa.  Traditionally, on the GOP side, if you don’t have a good organization you have to depend on existing ones, like the evangelicals.  Since Gingrich’s idea of “family values” is porkin’ the help, I doubt they will turn out for him.  Expect his results to fall short of his polls – it is far easier to tell a robo-poll that you are going to vote than to actually spend an hour or two in a poorly-heated school cafeteria on a cold Tuesday night when you could be home watching Michigan and Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl.

    Santorum is rising in polls, but Perry’s events are drawing large crowds.  With his late start, he has to hope the evangelicals swing his way.

    So much of Paul’s support is young people and first-time caucus-goers, groups which have the lowest turnout rate for caucuses.  As  someone noted yesterday, a lot of the Paul support isn’t Paulbot fanboys, with just them he would be at his usual 5-10% depending on the parole rate in the given state.  The rest is probably a protest vote from disaffected conservatives who don’t even want to build a new white nation with no Joos, so whether they show up and who they end up voting for is still in doubt.

    So it’s still anybody’s race, and I would pay no attention at all to poll differences of less than 5% – and take those greater with a grain of salt.

  23. ThePaganTemple
    December 30th, 2011 @ 4:25 pm

    Of course, Ace would say that. And you can count on him cherry picking the polls that make Perry look best, just like certain other people I won’t mention cherry pick certain other polls I won’t mention that make their own candidates, who I won’t mention, look best.

  24. ThePaganTemple
    December 30th, 2011 @ 4:29 pm

    I don’t want a candidate who will please the left, in fact, I want one who will go out of his way to NOT please the left. But I also want one who won’t make himself look like a blabbering idiot.

  25. ThePaganTemple
    December 30th, 2011 @ 4:34 pm

    On top of that, at least 40% are undecided. Now whether that is 40% of likely caucus goers or just 40% of registered voters could make all the difference in the world, but it is a significant number. Frankly, I think its 40% of people that don’t particularly like any of the candidates, so it could mean it might not make any difference whatsoever if none of that number show up for the caucuses.

  26. Anonymous
    December 30th, 2011 @ 5:55 pm

    Really, you mean he’s never won elective office?  

  27. DIANE LANE
    December 30th, 2011 @ 7:32 pm

    Rick Perry is a former democrat and his views on illegal immigration scare me!  Rick Santorum is winning over all of the candidates (Romney is next), because he is a staunch conservative…something America needs right now.  The country has never seen the TRUE RIGHT OF THIS NATION RISE UP…but they will very soon because our country is in jeopardy of falling FAST with this administration and the others before it!  We no longer can stand on the sidelines while they drive a bulldozer thru The Constitution and The Bill of Rights!  We have to unite behind a TRUE AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE, or we risk falling to third world nation status, as the rest of the world is handed every prized  possession of ours!  Wake up America, time to clean house!!! 

  28. Ccoffer
    December 30th, 2011 @ 8:04 pm

    Is there a living republican this assclown Erik Erikson isn’t calling a Communist? What a worthless asshole.  Seems there should be Green or Footballs somewhere in the name of his Unabomber Shack of a website.

  29. ThePaganTemple
    December 31st, 2011 @ 6:46 am

    Rick Perry’s views on illegal immigration are fine. In fact, if he was as good in the debates as he was as a governor he would be my first choice.

  30. ThePaganTemple
    December 31st, 2011 @ 6:47 am

    And I know that sounds shallow, but its just an unfortunate fact that in this day and age, image matters as much as substance, unfortunately, and you do not take that into account at your own peril.

  31. Memo From the National Affairs Desk: Eight Days in a Mustang Later … : The Other McCain
    January 5th, 2012 @ 9:53 am

    […] 30: Guess Who’s Gonna Be Watching Hawkeye Football Tonight With Rick Santorum?Dec. 30: New Polls Confirm Santorum Surge in Iowa; Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry FadingDec. 30: Rick Santorum to Ann Coulter: ‘I Mean, Ann, Should I Have Voted for Amnesty?’Dec. 29: […]