The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Is Virginia Still a Battleground?

Posted on | October 25, 2012 | 13 Comments

Mixed signals about the state of the presidential campaign in Virginia. Obama drew a reported 15,000 people to a rally in Richmond today, and has reportedly scheduled an appearance next week with Bill Clinton in Manassas. Meanwhile, Paul Ryan had a rally this morning in Bristol and will have another rally this evening in Charlottesville, while Romney is scheduled for three stops Sunday in Virginia, including his own rally in Richmond.

Rasmussen has Mitt Romney +2 in Virginia, while PPP has Obama +5, and they can’t both be right.

It therefore would appear that Virginia is still a hotly contested battleground, yet there is apparent confirmation today of a rumor I heard Tuesday, namely that Obama has pulled half his staff from Virginia and also quit polling the state. So what’s actually happening?

My best guess, based on observation, polls and anecdotal reports: Romney will win Virginia, and the Democrats know it, but — but — the question is whether Romney will win Virginia by enough of a margin to allow the networks to call the state early. If Obama can make a strong enough showing to keep Virginia in the “too close to call” column past 9 p.m. Eastern time, then this avoids the kind of clear shift on the Electoral College map that might suppress late Democrat turnout in the West, which would help tip Iowa, Colorado and Nevada toward Romney.

So the massive Republican get-out-the-vote effort in Virginia — which I have had a chance to watch first-hand — will continue.

Something else: Notice the Left’s desperate pushback, including the latest from Nate Silver, against the idea that Romney has momentum coming out of the debates. This is because, of course, Romney has momentum coming out of the debates.

Graveyard whistling can be sweet music.


13 Responses to “Is Virginia Still a Battleground?”

  1. SeanSorrentino
    October 25th, 2012 @ 5:02 pm

    Is Virginia a still battleground? NO
    Now, is New Jersey now a battleground? That’s a much more interesting question.

  2. keller23
    October 25th, 2012 @ 5:14 pm

    VA polls close at 7pm which is 4pm in Nevada and 5pm in Colorado. A VA loss early for Obama dampens a lot Dems in those 2 states who are getting ready to vote after work. Wait what am I saying, Dems don’t work. Never mind.

  3. Earl Scruggs
    October 25th, 2012 @ 5:19 pm

    Obama’s dismissive bayonets and horses snark in relation to the Navy was a tell – Obama knew at that point Virginia was out of reach.

  4. justaconservativegirl
    October 25th, 2012 @ 5:39 pm

    I marched in a Halloween parade last night in Northern Virginia with the republican ticket. This particular town is normally very left leaning. We got our shares of jeers and boos, but we also got a great deal of cheers. Romney only needs about 35% of this county to hold the state. I think he will get more than that.

  5. Adjoran
    October 25th, 2012 @ 6:23 pm

    Obama can’t leave Virginia for the same reason he can’t leave Florida, although that is even more hopeless: with the talk and momentum being about Romney, if he pulls out of battleground states while Romney moves into Wisconsin (and maybe Michigan & PA), it just feeds the perception that he is losing.

    And that is death to his easily-discouraged and hard-to-motivate base of minorities, young voters, the lazy, the disengaged, the stupid, and the parasitic. Of course the rabid Marxists and America-haters will be with him no matter what, but there aren’t so many of them despite the screeching volume of the noise they make.

  6. Chris Wysocki
    October 25th, 2012 @ 6:30 pm

    Funny you should mention New Jersey. Obama is running TV ads in NYC, presumably aimed at us here in the Blue State That Elected Chris Christie. Even if it doesn’t mean he’s gonna lose NJ, the fact he’s spending money in the most expensive media market in America speaks volumes.

  7. SeanSorrentino
    October 25th, 2012 @ 6:35 pm

    I’m convinced that the polls are biased so badly that Romney will end up winning by 100 Electoral College votes, taking states that no one expects him to take. And I think Obama already knows it.
    All the newspapers will have “Unexpectedly” in the headlines. They sure got enough mileage out of that word every time the unemployment rate “unexpectedly” jumped upwards again. Romney “Unexpectedly” crushes Obama!

  8. smitty
    October 25th, 2012 @ 6:56 pm

    It looks like the Social plugin un-Bidened itself. Woo hoo.

  9. smitty
    October 25th, 2012 @ 6:58 pm

    Is this thing going to work, then?

  10. Wombat_socho
    October 25th, 2012 @ 7:08 pm

    So it’s working/not working/gone altogether?

  11. richard mcenroe
    October 25th, 2012 @ 8:39 pm

    The social plug in seems to be wor????????…

  12. #MyFirstTime–Best Political Ad…EVAH? « Blog de KingShamus
    October 25th, 2012 @ 11:40 pm

    […]  Check out The Other McCain’s Virginia analysis.  Read the whole thing, then ask yourself if the Lena Dunham advertisement embarrassment is gonna […]

  13. big4bluz
    October 26th, 2012 @ 2:08 am

    This ‘who’s pulling out where’ stuff no longer applies. Both campaigns are up to their ying-yangs with cash and can fight everywhere till the end. These ‘pulling out’ rumors are planted by staffers to gin up enthusiasm for their own workers/base.