The Other McCain

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More Signs of a Midterm ‘Red Wave’?

Posted on | October 17, 2022 | 1 Comment

Ann Althouse captures Frank Bruni of the New York Times worrying that Joe Biden’s unpopularity may sink Raphael Warnock’s Senate reelection bid in Georgia. (Hat-tip: Instapundit.) The other big problem for Warnock is that the Democratic candidate for governor is Stacey Abrams, who is losing very badly to Gov. Brian Kemp.

Bruni is apparently trying to warn readers of the Times — trapped inside their liberal media echo chamber — that November 8 is starting to look like a complete wipeout for Democrats. Did I mention that Republican Kari Lake, a dreaded pro-Trump “election denier” is leading the governor’s race in Arizona? Although some polls in Arizona have shown the race a tie, or with a lead for Democrat Katie Hobbs, the RCP average has been in Lake’s favor for the past month. And if Lake is winning the governor’s race, isn’t it likely that Republican Blake Masters will upset Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona? Masters is scarcely more “extremist” than Lake, and how many split-ticket voters will there be in Arizona? If we are looking at a genuine “wave” election, the fact that Kelly has an enormous money advantage and has led all the polls won’t save him from defeat. And hey, what about Connecticut?

Yes, Connecticut — a state that Joe Biden won by a 20-point margin two years ago — may be in play on November 8. The latest Connecticut poll shows Democrat Gov. Ned Lamont with just a 6-point lead over GOP challenger Bob Stefanowski, and Sen. Richard Blumenthal is leading Republican Leora Levy by only 5 points. While I doubt that Republicans are on the verge of upset victories in Connecticut, the mere fact that the polls are this close speaks volumes about the general anti-Democrat mood of the nationwide electorate as the midterms approach.

Democrats are now sweating elections in places where Republicans haven’t won in years. Republican Lee Zeldin’s challenge to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is now rated a “toss-up,” in large measure because crime in New York has gotten completely out of control, and the blame goes directly to Democrats for passing “bail reform” laws.

If Democrats are fighting to keep their jobs in New York and Connecticut, how do you think the midterms are shaping up for Democratic congressional candidates in crucial “swing” districts?

There are 36 House races currently rated as “toss-ups” by Real Clear Politics. Thirty of those seats are held by Democrats. Five of them are in New York (the 3rd, 4th, 17th, 18th and 19th districts) and one is in Connecticut (5th District), so the fact that statewide races are unusually close in those states points toward the likelihood that at least some of those seats will end up in Republican hands. This is even more true for toss-up seats in the Heartland, like OH-9, TX-28, NC-1, MN-2 and MI-8. Keep in mind that Nancy Pelosi’s grip on the Speaker’s gavel rests on a razor-thin 222-213 majority, so that Republicans only need to flip five seats to take control of the House. Rick Moran breaks down the latest numbers from the CBS Battleground poll, which estimates the GOP gaining 11 seats — and that’s likely a lowball estimate.

CBS frames the story as Democratic “momentum has stalled, at least for now” — the Republican lead has “stabilized” after two months in which the Democrats had gained ground in the CBS poll. However, polls are a lagging indicator; what this actually reflects is that the Democrats got a bump in June because of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, but that boost was only temporary. Economic reality has proven to have a more enduring impact, as might be expected.

The nationwide average price of a gallon of regular gasoline peaked at $4.84 in mid-June, then slid down all the way to $3.51 in mid-September, but it’s now back up to $3.72 and can be expected to continue rising, as the demand for home heating oil impacts petroleum prices. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was near $36,800 in January, closed Friday at $29,635 — nearly a 20% decline, which translates to a loss of more than $30,000 for the average 401(k) account.

Democrats have spent the past seven years chasing delusions — first the “Orange Man Bad” bogeyman, then the “Black Lives Matter” crusade, and now the belief that endless deficit spending and “Green energy” boondoggles can be sold as “inflation reduction” — and all those fantasies will collapse into a heap of futility once the midterms end Pelosi’s tenure as Speaker of the House. Frank Bruni’s column is his way of nudging the elbows of New York Times readers, telling them the jig will soon be up, so when the “Red Wave” hits on November 8, they won’t be so shocked.




 

Category: Congress, Election, Polls

Comments

One Response to “More Signs of a Midterm ‘Red Wave’?”

  1. News of the Week (October 23rd, 2022) | The Political Hat
    October 28th, 2022 @ 12:34 am

    […] More Signs of a Midterm ‘Red Wave’? Ann Althouse captures Frank Bruni of the New York Times worrying that Joe Biden’s unpopularity may sink Raphael Warnock’s Senate reelection bid in Georgia. (Hat-tip: Instapundit.) The other big problem for Warnock is that the Democratic candidate for governor is Stacey Abrams, who is losing very badly to Gov. Brian Kemp. […]