The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Is It Panic Time for Democrats Yet?

Posted on | April 4, 2024 | Comments Off on Is It Panic Time for Democrats Yet?

Seven months is a long time in politics. Anything could happen between now and Election Day. Even if you’re not worried about another “plandemic” (and I’ll let everyone be their own judge of what constitutes sufficient paranoia), it is not safe to presume that the political situation as it looks in April will be anything like the situation in November. Having offered that caveat, OH BOY DO THINGS LOOK BAD FOR BIDEN!

Democrats with deep knowledge of the Biden campaign acknowledged former President Donald Trump’s significant chances of completing the greatest political comeback in American history. . . .
Democrat fundraiser John Morgan said his party is “prepared to lose” the presidential election to Trump. Morgan, a very successful lawyer from Central Florida, added he is nervous about President Joe Biden’s current political position.
“As my great-grandfather used to say, ‘I’m as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs.’ Yes, hell yes,” Morgan told the Washington Post. “We all know this is a jump ball,” he said.

It’s a “jump ball,” but their guy can barely walk. Biden’s poll numbers are catastrophic. Look at the job approval numbers: Biden is hovering around 41%, and compare that to where Trump was four years ago — 46.9% on April 4, 2020. Biden is also below where Obama was in Aoril 2012 (47.8%) and where Bush was in April 2004 (48.8%). Which is to say, Biden is historically unpopular. He makes Jimmy Carter look like a winner, by comparison. Now look at the horse-race number: Trump leads by about 1 point — a statistical dead heat. Except compare that to where the race stood four years ago, in April 2020, when Biden was up 5.9 points. Which is to say, there’s been a 7-point swing toward Trump. In the end, of course, Biden’s margin in the popular vote was 4.5 points, but if the same pattern holds true this year (i.e., if there is the same ratio between April RCP average and the final election result), then Trump would win by a margin of more than two points nationally. And what about the battleground states?

Former President Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign manager, James Carville, is also worried about Trump’s strong position. In six of the seven top swing states, Trump leads Bidenreversing Biden’s 2020 success in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona, a Wall Street Journal poll found Tuesday. Trump also holds sizable leads over Biden in six out of eight issues polled by the Journal.

As Professor Reynolds always says, “Don’t get cocky,” but as things look now, Trump could win this thing in a November landslide.


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