FOUR MORE DAYS: Kid Rock Tonight in the Only County That Matters
Posted on | November 2, 2012 | 12 Comments
The National Affairs Desk, Blue Ash, Ohio, Nov. 2, 2012
BLUE ASH, Ohio
Six days since Ali Akbar and I arrived in Ohio, four days until Election Day, and we are right now at the epicenter of the political universe:
Butler County may prove to be the key to the entire 2012 election, Ground Zero of the battle for the White House and essential to Mitt Romney’s hopes for victory. That explains why, when the Romney campaign scheduled Friday’s massive “Victory Rally” to kick off a four-day final pre-Election Day tour, they chose Butler County as the site.
An all-star cast of Republicans — including Rudy Giuliani, House Speaker John Boehner, Condoleezza Rice and Marco Rubio — will join Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan at an event in West Chester featuring Kid Rock as musical entertainment. The rally is expected to draw greater attendance than the Republican National Convention — some have dubbed it “RNC II” — and such a crowd is expected that the doors will open four hours ahead of the 7:30 p.m. start of the rally.
To understand why this suburb of Cincinnati is so essential to Republican success, it is necessary to look at the past two elections. In 2004, when George W. Bush carried Ohio by more than 100,000 votes, approximately half his margin of victory came from Butler County, where he defeated Democrat John Kerry by about 53,000 votes. In 2008, however, when Barack Obama won Ohio by a margin of 250,000 votes, the GOP margin for John McCain in Butler County was less than 40,000 votes — roughly a 4,500-vote decline for the Republicans and nearly a 10,000-vote increase for Democrats.
With this year’s fight for Ohio’s crucial 18 Electoral College votes expected to be extremely close, the difference of a few thousand extra votes for Romney in Butler County might be the difference between victory and defeat. On Election Night, then, analysts will be watching returns from this county very closely. If early returns show Romney near 65 percent here, he’ll likely be the next President of the United States. If not …
Read the whole thing at The American Spectator, and keep in mind something I said last night on Twitter:
@ali @mike_gus24 Once the results get to 50% precincts reporting in a few key counties, we’ll be able to call Ohio.
— Robert Stacy McCain (@rsmccain) November 2, 2012
@ali @mike_gus24 For example, Romney needs at least 65% in Butler County.
— Robert Stacy McCain (@rsmccain) November 2, 2012
@ali @mike_gus24 Butler is Ohio’s largest “red” county.
— Robert Stacy McCain (@rsmccain) November 2, 2012
All the polls in the world are moot now, because this election is within a range where the winner will be the team with superior turnout. The three most important factors now are:
- Turnout;
- Turnout; and
- Turnout.
If Romney can’t get the numbers he needs in Butler County, Romney won’t win Ohio, and if Romney doesn’t win Ohio, it’s another four years for Obama. Period. It is therefore no exaggeration at all to call this the make-or-break point for the entire election. So now . . .
Yeah, OK, let’s talk polls, but anybody can talk polls, and I feel slightly guilty talking polls when the tip-jar hitters are paying me to be in Ohio, and I could be talking polls at home in my pajamas. Nate Silver gets paid six figures by the New York Times and never has to leave his Brooklyn apartment while telling the whole world that it is now a scientific certainty that Obama has a 80.9 percent likelihood of re-election.
Let me tell you something: As much as I want to defeat Obama, I want to destroy Nate Silver.
And I’m sure you do, too, which should be all the motivation anyone needs to go all-out for the next four days, to ensure that Nate’s a laughingstock on Nov. 7. Please hit the tip-jar.
PREVIOUSLY:
- Nov 1: Fred Thompson Makes News With Benghazi Comments at AFP Event
- Oct. 31: BREAKING NEWS FROM OHIO: REPUBLICAN WOMEN ARE HOT
- Oct. 31: FROM OHIO: POLLS, POLLS, POLLS
- Oct. 30: FROM OHIO: GROUND GAME REPORT
- Oct. 30: Mark October 30 on Your Calendar: Democrat Panic Hits Pandemic Stage
- Oct. 29: SCENES FROM ROMNEY-RYAN RALLY
- Oct. 29: FROM OHIO: Schedule Scrambled; Obama, Romney Cancel Campaign Events
- Oct. 28: FROM OHIO: ROMNEY GAINS IN STATE POLL, NOW TIED WITH OBAMA
- Oct. 27: STORM CANCELS ROMNEY VIRGINIA EVENTS; OHIO, HERE WE COME UPDATE: BOOM! Mitt Romney Endorsed by Des Moines Register
Comments
12 Responses to “FOUR MORE DAYS: Kid Rock Tonight in the Only County That Matters”
November 2nd, 2012 @ 5:49 pm
RT @smitty_one_each: TOM FOUR MORE DAYS: Kid Rock Tonight in the Only County That Matters http://t.co/SDcIfizW #TCOT
November 2nd, 2012 @ 5:55 pm
RT @smitty_one_each: TOM FOUR MORE DAYS: Kid Rock Tonight in the Only County That Matters http://t.co/SDcIfizW #TCOT
November 2nd, 2012 @ 5:57 pm
You won’t destroy Silver, Silver will destroy Silver, with a bit of help from the voters.
I’m still a bit of an Eeyore on this. I refuse to over estimate the intelligence of the electorate.
November 2nd, 2012 @ 6:27 pm
Kevin Trainor Jr. liked this on Facebook.
November 2nd, 2012 @ 7:59 pm
“As much as I want to defeat Obama, I want to destroy Nate Silver.” truly, he is the Red Legs Terrell to your Josey Wales…
November 2nd, 2012 @ 8:18 pm
[…] Posted on 2 November, 2012 by wjjhoge When Stacy McCain called me this afternoon, he was in Blue Ash, Ohio, preparing to cover a Mitt Romney rally in nearby West Chester. Blue Ash. That reminds me […]
November 2nd, 2012 @ 8:51 pm
[…] early voters than John McCain did in 2008, and Republicans have the enthusiasm factor on their side.Romney is in Ohio – or as Stacy calls it, the epicenter of the political universe – for a big campaign rally […]
November 2nd, 2012 @ 9:18 pm
I have been playing video poker and making enough not to lose money and tip the barmaid bringing me drinks. I am feeling like a winner.
Nate who?
November 3rd, 2012 @ 12:56 am
[…] 2: FOUR MORE DAYS: Kid Rock Tonight in the Only County That MattersNov 1: Fred Thompson Makes News With Benghazi Comments at AFP EventOct. 31: BREAKING NEWS FROM OHIO: […]
November 3rd, 2012 @ 2:14 pm
[…] 2: WEST CHESTER, OHIO: MASSIVE CROWD FOR ROMNEY-RYAN RALLYNov. 2: FOUR MORE DAYS: Kid Rock Tonight in the Only County That MattersNov 1: Fred Thompson Makes News With Benghazi Comments at AFP EventOct. 31: BREAKING NEWS FROM OHIO: […]
November 4th, 2012 @ 12:05 pm
[…] 2: WEST CHESTER, OHIO: MASSIVE CROWD FOR ROMNEY-RYAN RALLYNov. 2: FOUR MORE DAYS: Kid Rock Tonight in the Only County That MattersNov 1: Fred Thompson Makes News With Benghazi Comments at AFP EventOct. 31: BREAKING NEWS FROM OHIO: […]
November 6th, 2012 @ 7:50 pm
[…] OHIO ‘ALL-STAR’ RALLYNov. 2: WEST CHESTER, OHIO: MASSIVE CROWD FOR ROMNEY-RYAN RALLYNov. 2: FOUR MORE DAYS: Kid Rock Tonight in the Only County That MattersNov 1: Fred Thompson Makes News With Benghazi Comments at AFP EventOct. 31: BREAKING NEWS FROM OHIO: […]