The headline is “Obama Urges Europe Not to Drop Stimulus Measures Yet,” but to understand what the president is actually trying to say, you have to read this New York Times story very carefully:
President Obama signaled on Friday that countries in Europe should not withdraw their extraordinary spending programs too quickly.
In a public letter to other leaders of the Group of 20 nations in advance of a summit in Toronto next week, Mr. Obama wrote, “Our highest priority in Toronto must be to safeguard and strengthen the recovery.” . . .
Mr. Obama also wrote, “We must be flexible in adjusting the pace of consolidation and learn from the consequential mistakes of the past when stimulus was too quickly withdrawn and resulted in renewed economic hardships and recession.” . . .
American officials are concerned that fiscal retrenchment by too many countries at once could imperil the global recovery.
Mr. Obama warned of the risks of a double-dip recession, which most economists consider unlikely but not impossible.
“In fact, should confidence in the strength of our recoveries diminish, we should be prepared to respond again as quickly and as forcefully as needed to avoid a slowdown in economic activity,” he wrote.
People who haven’t been paying close attention might not understand why Obama is saying all this. Obama, his advisers and the Democrats in general are firm believers in Keynesian economics, which prescribes deficit “stimulus” spending. But Germany isn’t buying that baloney. Bloomberg News explains:
While Obama endorsed restoring order to public finances in the “medium-term,” his focus on growth is at odds with that of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s preference for budget cuts amid Europe’s debt crisis. Each strategy carries risks. Continued stimulus risks bondholder revolt over rising debt burdens, while spending cutbacks could tip the global economy back into recession.. . .
Merkel, the head of Europe’s largest economy, said June 11 she expects to have a “hard time” at the summit and that she will respond that “there is no alternative” to cutting the fiscal deficit.
Germany’s Cabinet this month backed budget cuts worth more than 80 billion euros through 2014, while French President Nicolas Sarkozy this week raised the retirement age and increased taxes.
Pay close attention to this part of the Bloomberg story:
Chinese officials said in Beijing today that they plan to use the Toronto talks to discuss responses to Europe’s sovereign debt turmoil while keeping the yuan’s value off the agenda. The yuan has been held at about 6.83 yuan to one U.S. dollar since mid-2008 to help protect China’s exporters, drawing threats of tariffs from among U.S. lawmakers.
Obama doesn’t mention China in the letter but maintains his position that China’s currency value should be determined by the market. “I also want to underscore that market-determined exchange rates are essential to global economic vitality,” he said.
Obama is facing domestic pressure from his own party to lean on China to raise the value of its currency. Lawmakers such as House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Sander Levin and New York Senator Charles Schumer, both Democrats, say a weak currency gives Chinese exporters an unfair advantage over their U.S. competitors and costs U.S. jobs.
Levin said yesterday that the value must be increased by the end of the summit. After the G-20 meeting, “if China does not act and the administration does not respond promptly thereafter, the Congress will act,” Levin said yesterday at a hearing.
The Bloomberg reporter doesn’t connect the dots here, but mention of a potential “bondholder revolt” and this trade issue with China are in fact connected.
China owns a lot of U.S. debt, and there seems to be an implicit bargain here: China will keep funding Obama’s deficit spending spree, so long as the U.S. keeps its markets open to Chinese goods. Under pressure from U.S. labor unions, however, Schumer and Levin are starting to talk like Smoot and Hawley, which would undo that bargain.
So we’ve got high unemployment with mind-boggling deficits as far as the eye can see, and the whole thing could unravel if China ever gets tired of buying U.S. debt.
Gold just hit $1,262 an ounce. Mere coincidence, I’m sure.