LIVE AT FIVE: 09.24.12

“He surfed into the race on a tsunami wave of overconfidence, his campaign led by a bunch of cutthroat a–holes who had just finished sabotaging Newt Gingrich.
“They convinced a lot of people . . . to climb aboard The Smilin’ Texan Express for a one-way ride to glory.”
— Robert Stacy McCain, Nov. 29, 2011

Back during the primary campaign — and I think it was in January, but I could be wrong — Ace of Spades did a post in which he ranted sarcastically against “gut hunches” as a basis for political judgment. Perhaps it is solipsistic to imagine Ace had me in mind, just because my hunches during the campaign repeatedly proved more accurate than the predictions of the elite punditocracy.

Even before the campaign really began, I saw the enormous upside potential of Herman Cain’s candidacy at a time when most of the other reporters regarded him as a novelty lightweight. By the time he zoomed to the top of the polls in late September 2011, I looked like prescient genius, and if it hadn’t been for the unexpected (and, Herman still insists, entirely false) sexual allegations, who knows what might have happened?

As soon as the Cain Train ran off the rails, I jumped straight to the Santorum Express, at a time when he was the lowest underdog in the field. Again, my gut hunch proved prescient, and by the time the polls began to catch up with my gut, Santorum was on the verge of a stunning upset in the Iowa caucuses. Despite all the odds against him, until he finally dropped out in April, Santorum was the last viable alternative to Romney.

Many other things my gut also got right: Pawlenty was too boring, Huntsman was hopeless, the Gingrich bubble predictably imploded, and Sarah Palin never got past the “maybe” I got from her people when I tried to gauge her interest in the 2012 race back in early November 2010. (The well-placed source who, in June 2011, left me hanging in the wind with his word that Palin would make a final decision “within a week”? Yeah, maybe I ought to burn him, but he swears that was the word he got from Palin’s people, and I guess their mixed signals were not his fault.)

Of all my gut hunches, however, none was more accurate than the weird vibe I got in August 2011 about the Rick Perry campaign:

“What I fear will happen is that Perry will spend several months sucking up media oxygen and burning through GOP donor cash, only to collapse early next year. This will have the effect of suffocating other conservative candidates, and thereby lead to … Romney 2012.”

Something was definitely wrong with the Perry campaign, and if I couldn’t quite articulate the rational basis for that spooky foreboding, the deadly accuracy of my hunch was amply vindicated by subsequent events. So now comes Jay Root of the Texas Tribune to tell his own version of events:

At this point you may be wondering why anyone would write a book about a presidential candidate who made the word “oops” his calling card. The short answer is that “Oops! A Diary From the 2012 Campaign Trail” began not as a book but as a diary — a behind-the-scenes look at life on a modern presidential campaign. The “embed” reporters. The bus. The way news is really gathered in the age of Twitter and YouTube.
I had every reason to believe I was covering the eventual Republican nominee when Perry immediately shot to the top of the polls in the summer of 2011. By the time his campaign ground to a halt five months later, the words of the Democratic strategist James Carville, spoken on CNN in January, seemed like the most apt description of what I had witnessed: “the worst presidential campaign/candidate in American history.” . . .

Read the whole thing. It may not as interesting as some of my gut hunches, but it’s still pretty good.

Category: Election 2012, Rick Perry

Oh, Say, You Can’t See, By The Hope Or The Change, What So Sadly We Beheld, Like Benghazi’s Last Blood Streaks

Posted on | September 23, 2012 | 13 Comments

by Smitty

First, the United States has not properly mourned the deaths of our Libyan Ambassador, or the other three victims in the Benghazi tragedy. The Obama Administration piled deceit after the fact upon incompetence beforehand, and has still not come fully clean.

Thus it was with grisly irony that the blogs seized on Obama’s vainglorious corruption of our national flag:

Alongside the literal handwriting on the wall in Benghazi where the some final thoughts were communicated, perhaps while Barack was getting some much-needed rest:

And how do you know that American voices penetrated the fog in Obama’s head in a way those fingers in Benghazi couldn’t penetrate the wall? “Whoops! Our bad”

“Our bad”, indeed. In 2008. We either voted for an incompetent, or didn’t work hard enough to fend off an incompetent. While it’s a great thing that the U.S. elected a black man, removing the final stain of racism (except where evil ones on the Left strive to keep the stain in place) just about everything else about Obama has been a wash. And, if you take away bagging Osama, you lose that “just about”.
Obama deserves to be pilloried about taking down that flag ad, roughly as much as putting it up there in the first place.

via PowerLine

Update: linked at Maggie’s Notebook

Category: Barack Obama

You Don’t Say, Kirsten Powers!

Posted on | September 23, 2012 | 9 Comments

The media — with certain notable exceptions, she neglects to add — “seem to have taken their marching orders from the Obama administration” in their coverage of the terrorist attack that killed our ambassador to Libya:

The fact is, most of the major media didn’t even wait for marching orders, but rather began their coverage of the Benghazi massacre with the premise that it was a campaign controversy (which Obama must win), rather than a policy issue (which might possibly damage their beloved idol’s re-election chances). So they were willing and eager to attack anything Mitt Romney said about it or (contingently) to attack him for being silent if he said nothing at all.

The current narrative the media are interested in telling can be summed up in six words: Heads, Obama wins; tails, Mitt loses.

Category: Libya, Media Bias

Classic: State Department Attacks CNN for Reporting Inconvenient Facts on Libya

Posted on | September 23, 2012 | 23 Comments

We now know that, despite warnings from multiple sources — including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens — about the rising threat from Islamic extremists in Libya, the Obama administration failed to take necessary precautions. After the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi that killed Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans, the Obama administration dishonestly tried to deceive the public by characterizing the attack as part of a “spontaneous” protest inspired by an obscure video. As the truth of the matter has slowly emerged, the Obama administration has sought to avoid admitting its errors and deceptions, and instead attempted to distract from this catastrophic failure of its own policies by attacking media outlets that are reporting honestly on the Libyan disaster.

CNN news reported that Ambassador Stevens was concerned that he was on an “al-Qaeda hit list,” but the network failed to disclose that one source of that report was the ambassador’s journal, which the network’s reporters had recovered from the ruins of the consulate.

The State Department has scapegoated the network for that decision, and you can see the predictable dogpile at Memeorandum, although news that is favorable to the Obama administration — e.g., “secret video” — never provokes this kind of reaction. PJ Media’s Rick Moran comments on the ethical question:

One can sympathize with the family on this issue, but the murder of an American ambassador and publishing his thoughts leading up to his death is a story with worldwide significance. CNN felt it had an obligation to selectively air those thoughts, only after confirming them with other sources, and keeping secret any personal and intimate details contained in the journal.

It’s a rare day when I agree with Rick Moran, but he’s right here: While CNN’s conduct is certainly subject to criticism, that pales in comparison to the “worldwide significance” — the legitimate news value — of the story they were reporting. Attempting to distract from this important story by trying to indict CNN before the court of public opinion? Predictable and wrong:

CNN broke a pledge to the late ambassador’s family that it wouldn’t report on the diary, said State Department spokesman Philippe Reines, a senior adviser to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
In a blistering statement, Reines called CNN’s actions “indefensible.”
The channel said in the story online that it took “newsworthy tips” from Stevens’ diary and confirmed them with other sources. Citing an unidentified source “familiar with Stevens’ thinking,” CNN said that the ambassador was concerned about security threats in Benghazi and a “rise in Islamic extremism.”
In a statement Saturday, CNN defended its use of the journal’s contents and asked “why is the State Department now attacking the messenger.”
“CNN did not initially report on the existence of a journal out of respect for the family, but we felt there were issues raised in the journal which required full reporting, which we did,” the channel said.
The public has a right to know what CNN learned from “multiple sources” about fears and warnings of a terror threat before the Benghazi attack, the channel said, “which are now raising questions about why the State Department didn’t do more to protect Ambassador Stevens and other U.S. personnel.”

Here is the CNN video report:

More commentary from Darleen Click, Ann Althouse, The Lonely Conservative, Twitchy, Gateway Pundit and NewsBusters.

Category: CNN, Libya, Terrorism

Memo From the National Affairs Desk: Worldwide Headquarters of Crazy, Inc.

Posted on | September 23, 2012 | 8 Comments

My plans to get to Ohio and cover the three-day Romney-Ryan Buckeye State bus tour that begins tomorrow have thus far been thwarted.

It’s one of those long complicated stories you don’t want to hear, but if there is any conservative in the Mid-Atlantic region willing to make the run, please contact me on Twitter. I’ve offered cash money to friends who tell me, alas, they’ve got more important things to do, and I’m half-tempted to drive this broken-down KIA (in dire need of major repairs) as far as it will take me, abandoning it if it breaks down, then trying to hitchhike my way along the campaign trail. The situation has become that desperate and, as I keep telling myself, Woodward and Bernstein never had to deal with this kind of crap.

Also, Woodward and Bernstein never had to deal with crazy people on Twitter. Without further explanation . . .

Attagirl! @beccajlower gets the ‘Lanche! pjmedia.com/instapundit/15…

— Robert Stacy McCain (@rsmccain) September 23, 2012

Signs @rsmccain and I hijacked from the #DNC2012 twitter.com/ali/status/249…

— Ali A. Akbar (@ali) September 23, 2012

HBO ‘Newsroom’ Star Takes Me And @rsmccain To Task For Bashing Her Boobs patdollard.com/2012/09/hbo-st… #WAR #tcot #lnyhbt #twisters

— Patrick Dollard (@PatDollard) September 23, 2012

@rsmccain “Kimberlins to the left of him, Pills to the right of him, onward rode the McCain..”

— Patrick Dollard (@PatDollard) September 23, 2012

@patdollard The difficulty amid the craziness twitter.com/PatDollard/sta… is maintaining one’s own sanity. “When the going gets weird …”

— Robert Stacy McCain (@rsmccain) September 23, 2012

@patdollard Imagine what it’s like when my wife asks, “So, how was your day?” Oh, just topless celebrities and random psychotics. The usual.

— Robert Stacy McCain (@rsmccain) September 23, 2012

Twitter wars with topless starlets and psycho terrorists make it hard to keep in mind that I’m supposed to be covering a presidential election.

UPDATE: In a comment on yesterday’s post about Kimberlin associate Neal Rauhauser, Bill Hoge cautioned that he is not a psychologist in offering this information:

The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM IV-TR), defines antisocial personality disorder as follows:

A) There is a pervasive pattern of disregard for and violation of the rights of others occurring since age 15 years, as indicated by three or more of the following:
1. failure to conform to social norms with respect to lawful behaviors as indicated by repeatedly performing acts that are grounds for arrest;
2. deception, as indicated by repeatedly lying, use of aliases, or conning others for personal profit or pleasure;
3. impulsiveness or failure to plan ahead;
4. irritability and aggressiveness, as indicated by repeated physical fights or assaults;
5. reckless disregard for safety of self or others;
6. consistent irresponsibility, as indicated by repeated failure to sustain consistent work behavior or honor financial obligations;
7. lack of remorse, as indicated by being indifferent to or rationalizing having hurt, mistreated, or stolen from another;

B) The individual is at least age 18 years.

C) There is evidence of conduct disorder with onset before age 15 years.

D) The occurrence of antisocial behavior is not exclusively during the course of schizophrenia or a manic episode.

Yeah, I’m not a psychologist either, but if Crazy-Evil Disorder (otherwise known as Kimberlin-Rauhauser Syndrome) isn’t listed in the DSM-IV, it should be in the next update.

UPDATE II: Trying to get my mind off the craziness and back onto the presidential campaign, my Tweet of this video has been re-Tweeted more than 130 times:

Category: Election 2012, Fear. Loathing., Mitt Romney, Ohio, Paul Ryan, Shoe Leather Fund

Dean: Romney’s Tax Rate “Doesn’t Seem Fair To Ordinary Working People”

Posted on | September 23, 2012 | 11 Comments

by Smitty

Howard Dean is almost admirable, in his twisted way, both for trying to push the Administration’s class warfare rhetoric, and then trying to label himself a moderate:

Dean eats his party’s crap sandwich argument straight up. Hope that’s tasting good to you, Howard.

via Hot Air

Category: Hot Air

Topless @MsAlisonPill? Meh.

Posted on | September 22, 2012 | 13 Comments

In case you didn’t know it, there is an HBO show called The Newsroom, one of the stars of which is a blonde young actress named Alison Pill who, as we might say, “pulled a Weiner.”

That is to say, she had a Twitter accident in which, she explained, she was attempting to delete a topless photo of herself and instead sent the topless photo to her 30,000+ Twitter followers.

Oops.

Also, not impressive

Kate Middleton’s topless photos — blurry, taken with a telephoto lens — were more impressive, and they weren’t all that impressive.

Listen up, celebrity ladies: We’re tired of these unimpressive topless photos. Unless you’ve got something that’s really worth our time to click the link — e.g., a pair of natural D cups with aureolas the circumference of a Moon Pie — don’t bother us. Keep your top on.

Pat Dollard has the (unimpressive) NSFW photo of Alison Pill, and I’ll just say this: She’s no Alyssa Milano. IYKWIMAITYD.

Category: Celebrities

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The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

LIVE AT FIVE: 09.24.12

The Phantom Menace, Remembered

Oh, Say, You Can’t See, By The Hope Or The Change, What So Sadly We Beheld, Like Benghazi’s Last Blood Streaks

You Don’t Say, Kirsten Powers!

Classic: State Department Attacks CNN for Reporting Inconvenient Facts on Libya

Memo From the National Affairs Desk: Worldwide Headquarters of Crazy, Inc.

Dean: Romney’s Tax Rate “Doesn’t Seem Fair To Ordinary Working People”

Topless @MsAlisonPill? Meh.

THE FULL METAL JACKET REACH-AROUND AWARD

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