The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Don’t Underestimate Rick Santorum’s Campaign Strength in New Hampshire

Posted on | January 1, 2012 | 27 Comments

“Ten days ago I was at 5 percent [in the polls] and every question I got was ‘Why don’t you pack it up and endorse another candidate?’ And now they’re saying ‘You’ve got to win [in Iowa] to exceed expectations.'”
— Rick Santorum on NBC’s Meet the Press

JOHNSTON, Iowa
One of the stupid assumptions pundits keep making about Rick Santorum is that he’s got nothing happening beyond Iowa.

There is no need to call out by name the people who have been promoting this counter-factual nonsense that Santorum is “another Huckabee,” who will do well in Iowa on the basis of his support among hard-core evangelical Christians and accomplish nothing meaningful thereafter. This myth has become a sort of conventional wisdom among some conservative pundits, a talking point promoted by advocates of the campaigns of Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, who have insisted that only their well-funded “brand name” candidates have the wherewithal to fight Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination. And it’s high time for people to begin critically examining that conventional wisdom because:

A. It’s not true;
B. It prevents consideration of a viable alternative strategy for the “Anybody But Mitt” movement; and
C. The campaigns promoting it — Gingrich and Perry — are evidently on their way to finishing fourth and fifth in Iowa.

Conservatives: Why let a bunch of losers dictate strategy to you? Why outsource your thinking to people who are only repeating what they’ve been told by paid campaign operatives? Why not examine the facts and think for yourself?

But I’m getting ahead of myself here. What I want to point out is that, while Rick Santorum has campaigned relentlessly in Iowa, it isn’t as if he has ignored New Hampshire. In fact, Santorum’s campaign manager Mike Biundo is a veteran of New Hampshire politics with strong Tea Party connections, as was pointed out by ABC News a year ago:

Biundo is a seasoned Granite State political operative who most recently helped Republican Frank Guinta defeat incumbent Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in state’s 1st Congressional District. Biundo also served on Guinta’s successful campaign for mayor of Manchester and has been involved in politics for two decades.
“I am thrilled to have Mike a part of our team. His experience and knowledge will be invaluable in New Hampshire,” Santorum said in a statement. “As I continue on this journey, it is important we determine our ability to build grassroots support and Mike will be an integral part of this process.”
Biundo served on the presidential campaigns of former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson and Pat Buchanan, who won the New Hampshire primary in 1996. He is also a veteran of grassroots organizing in the crucial early primary state and led the New Hampshire Advantage Coalition, a group promoting limited government.
“As former Senator Santorum continues to consider a run for president, I am pleased to have the opportunity to play a part in that process,” Biundo said in a statement. “The Senator’s fiscally responsible approach to government and vision for America’s future will play well here in New Hampshire.”

Biundo was originally hired to run Santorum’s New Hampshire operation and is now national campaign manager and it is a national campaign. Santorum is already running this new TV ad in New Hampshire:

That’s a pretty strong signal that, while Santorum is now in the midst of an all-out final push here in the Hawkeye State, his campaign hasn’t neglected the rest of the country.

As I mentioned Friday, the plan is that if Santorum does well here — as he clearly expects to do now — his Iowa field director Jake Braunger will hopscotch ahead to South Carolina with two-and-a-half weeks to work on the “ground game” there before that state’s Jan. 21 primary. Given the possibility that Rick Perry is supposed to be the candidate to beat in South Carolina, and Perry may suffer a humiliating fifth-place finish in Iowa (and may not even try to compete in New Hampshire), there is a chance that Santorum could come into South Carolina with a wave of momentum, looking like the most viable conservative alternative to Romney.

We talked about this Saturday on Granite Grok’s “Grok Talk” podcast with Skip Murphy and Mike Rogers, and I’d urge you to listen to that because one of the things we talked about was the danger of looking too far ahead in the campaign, trying to base decisions on hypothetical suppositions about what will happen two weeks or two months in the future. Too many people, I suggested to Skip and Mike, began their 2012 calculations by asking, “Who can win?” And they ruled out the potential of a candidate like Rick Santorum (or Ron Paul, for that matter) to have an impact on the results.

We are now about 48 hours away from Tuesday’s caucuses, and I hesitate to predict what’s going to happen Wednesday until I know what happens Tuesday. But those who have pre-emptively dismissed Santorum as a possible contender for the final “Not Mitt Romney” role in this campaign may need to re-examine their calculations. And the sooner, the better.

Category: Election 2012, Fear and Loathing in Iowa, Iowa, New Hampshire, Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum Talks Steelers Football

Posted on | January 1, 2012 | 19 Comments

JOHNSTON, Iowa
My friend Dan Collins insisted that I must interview the candidate about his favorite NFL team, which I did Friday night:

SANTORUM: “We will beat the Browns this week. My prediction is, both the Patriots will lose to the Bills and the Ravens will lose to the Bengals and we will be the Number One seed in the AFC playoffs.”
ME: “And who is going to be your opponent in the Super Bowl?”
SANTORUM: “I cannot see how the Packers don’t get it. …”
ME: “So the Steelers and the Packers?”
SANTORUM: “Rematch. And of course, Green Bay, after the last Super Bowl says, ‘Ain’t gonna be no rematch.’ Well there is going to be a rematch.”
ME: “So you don’t give any credit to the Cowboys?”
SANTORUM: “Who?”

The kind of tough questions they don’t ask on “Meet the Press.”

Category: Election 2012, Fear and Loathing in Iowa, Football, Iowa, Rick Santorum

Rather Harsh, But Hard To Counter

Posted on | January 1, 2012 | 41 Comments

by Smitty

Goldfish and Clowns:

It’s becoming painfully apparent that the conservative movement has learned nothing from, or since, 2008. We continue to eat our own and mount a circular firing squad, not once stopping to consider whether our actions further the conservative cause or merely provide free ammunition to the left. It’s also becoming apparent that we have learned nothing from the 2010 election when we screamed that we wanted non-professional politicians, people who were committed to the ideals of the Tea Party, yet when we got them in the presence of candidates such as Christine O’Donnell or Sharron Angle we ran and hid, appearing only long enough to throw brickbats at them. Why was this?
The answer is it has become more imperative to maintain or improve position within the conservative blogosphere’s echo chamber than to embrace reality. Our commitment is not to conservative ideals, but rather how much credit we get for those ideals. We say we want a revolution, but unless we can assume the position of Washington crossing the Delaware we become quite disinterested.

In musical terms, we are The Ramones, in all their egalitarian glory, but we crave the virtuosity of the Satriani elite.

This is the paradox of American politics, to admire the seemingly effortless performance of the pro, while despising the orders of magnitude more time spent practicing than cranking it out on stage.

And yet, I’m not sure that the GOP nominee is going to be abandoned like O’Donnell or Angle. For all the primary support is scattershot, I anticipate the blogosphere (to the extent that it matters) will turn on a dime and support the nominee. What’s crucial, however, is communicating to that nominee that, in contrast to the cult-like support offered #OccupyResoluteDesk, that nominee can expect to have the hindquarters handed to him, insofar as he deviates from the conservative principles he ran on.

Category: Blogging, Goldfish & Clowns, Republicans

FMJRA 2.0: Cry Tough

Posted on | January 1, 2012 | 12 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho

The Santorum Surge: Mainstream Media Finally Beginning to See Omens in Iowa

Rick Santorum to Ann Coulter: ‘I Mean, Ann, Should I Have Voted for Amnesty?’

Prayer For The Egyptian Christians

SANTORUM SURGE: Finally, the Polls in Iowa Are Catching Up With … Me

Gingrich Misses Virginia Ballot, Too

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Edasurc: ‘Crusade’ Spelled Backwards

Memo From the National Affairs Desk: How’s the Weather Today in Vanuatu?

Fear and Loathing at BWI

The Lonely Conservative Injures Herself While Linking Us

Greetings From Iowa

Rule 5 Monday: Boxing Day Edition

VA Attorney General Cuccinelli On GOP Primary Ballot

Ron, When You Accuse Israel Of Starting Hamas, You Need To Cite A Good Reference

Rick Santorum On Greta

Republicans With Shotguns

Romney Campaign Infiltrated By DHS-Certified Right Winger In Black Ford Mustang Thinking Santorum Thoughts

When the Story Writes Itself

Greetings From the Quad City

Shorter Victor Davis Hanson: Postmodernism Sucks

Rick Santorum Gets ‘The Kind of Optics a Cash-Strapped Candidate Can’t Buy’

Nancy Pelosi, Victim Of Those Bad, Bad. . .Campaign Donors

‘Everyone Sells Out in Iowa’

IOWA NOTEBOOK: Occupy Caucuses?

I Thought Fischer Sounded Fishy

Guess Who’s Gonna Be Watching Hawkeye Football Tonight With Rick Santorum?

‘Quite a Difference!’

Missing The Point On Marriage!

Newt Throws A Hail Sarah Pass?

You Can View The Uncertainty With Trepidation, Or As An Opportunity

Perry Campaign’s Amateur Hour

Top linkers this week:

  1. Katy Pundit (8)
  2. (tied) Lonely Conservative, The Conservatory, and Daily Pundit (6)

Thanks to everyone for their linkagery, especially during the holiday season when most of us have so much other stuff going on. Deadline for next weekend’s FMJRA will be Friday, January 6. Happy New Year, everybody!

 

Category: FMJRA Award

Ah, Yes: The Wallet, Plus Two More Predictions For Next Year

Posted on | January 1, 2012 | 9 Comments

by Smitty

Mark Mardell at the Beebs:

The other major factor in whether or not Obama survives in office is the state of the economy. There are glints of light, indications it is getting a little better. But another set back in Europe could blow the US further off course. And whatever story of slight optimism the statistics tell, most Americans won’t be bathed in the glow of a feel-good factor.

My 2012 predictions, well, really only three:

1) Economy. Starting with late spring/early summer, the economic news thaws. The economy, itself, remains frozen in a block of ice, but the news thaws. By high summer, there is a lot of upbeat news. Some may be genuine. If you have some cash, and you really think BHO is OUT, then buying some stocks could be sensible. So the Dow will be up, a little. This will be touted as a Really Good Sign. Of course, the actual hiring of new workers, well, that won’t exactly be going on, but the last reports on jobs and the economy will be railed at the maximum favorable side of the margin for error. They always adjust them downward later, do they not?

2) Election. My crystal bollocks do not see an easy ride for Romney to the GOP nomination. In the first place, even though it sort of looks like the fix is in, behaving as though the fix is in may pop that fix right out. Romney has to appear to have earned the nomination. The Tea Party cannot and will not roll over for him, nor should he wish such. Mitt is going to have offer some detailed, specific assurances to conservatives to lure them to his banner. Buying Tim Pawlenty, Chris Christie, Christine O’Donnell and Ann Coulter, while good business, may not buy you as much as, say, Limbaugh, Levin, and Beck. We should know by Super Tuesday how things fare. It’s not clear whether Rick Santorum can play BHO to Romney’s Hilary Clinton (how is that for disparaging comparisons?) but I will be putting my money where my mouth is once I’m back to work.

Irrespective of the winner of the GOP nomination, conservatives do rally, push back upon the #Occupy weenies, and send BHO into a permanent golfing arrangement. If I’m wrong, you can have my crust of bread in the gulag.

3) CPAC. Stacy’s Rodney Dangerfield routine about listings and event panels reaches a crescendo, and Tabitha Hale goes all Jim Croce on him, Ron Paul wins the straw poll, and the network is still under-provisioned.

Category: Barack Obama, CPAC, Election 2012

SANTORUM SURGE SUNDAY: Final Poll Makes Front-Page News in Des Moines

Posted on | January 1, 2012 | 16 Comments

JOHNSTON, Iowa
You’re looking at the front page of Sunday’s Des Moines Register, which I just bought this morning at a convenience store down the street, and which carries the results of their final poll:

Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance.
The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.
But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.
“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.

A good solid third would be great for Santorum. Second place? Awesome. And we dare not dream of what Rich Lowry suggests:

If Bachmann and Perry fade more at the end — and this poll result could hurt them — Santorum is within striking distance of a stunning upset.

Yeah, that would be stunning. Even I would be stunned if Santorum somehow manages to win this thing. But why does Lowry suggest that only Bachmann and Perry have the risk of a “fade”? Why can’t Romney and Paul and Gingrich fade, too? Never mind.

The point is, if this lastest poll is an accurate measure, Gingrich and Perry are now locked in a desperate struggle to avoid placing fifth in Iowa. And yet the Perry campaign — which ought to be focused on beating Gingrich — is instead pouring a steady barrage of attacks on Santorum.

Category: Election 2012, Fear and Loathing in Iowa, Iowa, Polls, Rick Santorum

‘Get Crazy With The Cheese Whiz’

Posted on | January 1, 2012 | 21 Comments

by Smitty

Pat in Shreveport sums it up for us: “I Suck”. I blogged from Afghanistan for much of 2011; Stacy’s gonzo efforts continue to this day. Yet we’re still clocking in somewhere between haggis and chopped liver on Director Blue’s roundup.
Last night, reached for comment at ~2300 EST, Stacy allowed he was on the way to crash “The Raucous Before the Caucus,” though he was dubious as to whether or not Tabitha Hale had been invited. At the mention of Director Blue’s post, Stacy recalled a diagram:

Cue the Beck:
I might also mention that I overheard a GPS unit in the background of Stacy’s cel phone, a severe blow to his Luddite cred.
Update: Nice Deb at least noticed us. 🙂
Category: Blogging, Tabitha Hale

Virginia Attorney General Cuccinelli Rises To The Occasion For GOP Primary

Posted on | December 31, 2011 | 9 Comments

by Smitty

There is some blowback at Cuccinelli for being a bit of a self-promoter, wanting to be first in line to sue over ObamaCare, not to mention smaller outings. Like asking what exactly Michael Mann was doing on the public dime when Mann was cookin’ him some Anthropogenic Global Warming books, or suing the EPA. I guess you either love or loathe the guy. If you’re in any of the campaigns that found themselves hating life over the VA primary ballot, you’re likely in the former category:

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is intervening in his state’s presidential primary dispute and plans to file emergency legislation to address the inability of most Republican presidential candidates to get their name on the ballot, Fox News has learned.

Meanwhile, four GOP candidates on Saturday joined fellow candidate Rick Perry’s lawsuit against the state, urging the Board of Elections to either allow them on the ballot or at least refrain from taking any action until a Jan. 13 court hearing.

Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul qualified for the Virginia primary, a contest with 49 delegates up for grabs. Perry and the four candidates joining the lawsuit — Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman — did not.

The failure of other candidates to qualify led to complaints that the 10,000-signature requirement is too stringent.

Cuccinelli, who is a Republican, shared the concerns and plans to take them to the legislature while the candidates work through the courts.

“Recent events have underscored that our system is deficient,” he said in a statement Saturday. “Virginia owes her citizens a better process. We can do it in time for the March primary if we resolve to do so quickly.”

Cuccinelli’s proposal is expected to state that if the Virginia Board of Elections certifies that a candidate is receiving federal matching funds, or has qualified to receive them, that candidate will upon request be automatically added to the ballot.

This will be just another brick in the wall against Cooch, as far as Romney state campaign chair and VA Lt Gov. Bill Bolling is concerned, AFAICT.

I, for one, applaud Cuccinelli’s initiative. Since I can’t write in Sarah Palin, the Not Mitt Romney Imperative would have had me voting for Ron Paul (???!!??!?!?!?). Though I like him for Secretary of the Treasury, I’m not sure how much further I’d go with the fellow. If Cuccinelli is successful in un-beclowning the VA GOP primary, that lets me vote Santorum in 2012’s primary, and will be worth remembering in 2013, should Cooch still be offering an alterative to Bolling’s style of hidebound Republicanism in the VA GOP governor’s primary.

via NOVA Tea Party

Category: Virginia
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