The Other McCain

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PA-12: Burns 48%, Critz 47%

Posted on | May 16, 2010 | 23 Comments

Absolute dead heat in the final pre-election poll by the Democrat-run firm Public Policy Polling. You absolutely couldn’t hope for better news on the verge of Tuesday’s special election in Jack Murtha’s old district. Your money quote:

[T]hose planning to vote on Tuesday report having voted for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, compared to his actual 1 point victory in the district. And among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote in this election, Burns has a 60-38 lead.

I’ll be back to update in a little bit. However, I must not end without reminding you of this quote from February 2009:

If we are doomed to destruction, as least let it be said that we died fighting. But those who never fight, never win.

In a word . . .

WOLVERINES!

UPDATE: John McCormack at the Weekly Standard points out:

[O]ne advantage for Critz: Democratic turnout in the western Pennsylvania district may be boosted by a competitive Democratic senatorial primary between Joe Sestak and Arlen Specter (Pat Toomey has no serious competition for the GOP nomination).

Indeed, Sestak’s surge in the Senate race is probably the only reason Critz isn’t trailing significantly in PA-12. In early April, a Quinnipiac poll showed Specter leading by 21 points and Sestak trailed in every poll through the end of April. Five of the six most recent polls, however, show Sestak leading, so Democrats have a lot more incentive to turn out.

It is likely that many of the Democrats who will vote against the long-term incumbent Specter in the Senate race will also vote against Murtha’s henchman Critz in PA-12. Of course, Republicans can’t really count on those kind of crossover votes in their turnout strategy; instead, they’re relentlessly beating the bushes for Republican voters.

UPDATE II: Linked by Jim Hoft at Gateway Pundit. Thanks, Jim!

UPDATE III: Amy Crawford of the Greensburgh Tribune-Review does some good reporting for the New Republic:

Twelve hours a day for several weeks now, supporters of Tim Burns, the GOP’s candidate for Congress in Pennsylvania’s Twelfth district, have staffed a call center in a mostly-vacant office building in downtown Washington, PA. Bundles of phone cables hang from the ceiling, and the walls are decorated with navy “Tim Burns for Congress” signs and an American flag. “If he wins, he’s going to go to Washington and slow down the massive spending,” avowed Chris Burdick, 21, who had driven up from West Virginia to make calls.
Like Burdick, volunteers have come from out of town after learning about Burns on conservative websites and from Fox News. Across the country, other Burns supporters are using the campaign’s call-from-home program, which allows them to reach voters in southwest Pennsylvania from kitchen tables and living room couches as far away as California. Burns strategist Kent Gates is unapologetic about the outsiders. “This is a national election,” he declares. . . .

I showed you the Burns telephone operation in my May 2 special report on PA 12. Crawford seems to have filed her New Republic story before the latest poll showed Burns pulling ahead, but it’s still a very informative article — read the whole thing.

UPDATE IV: Critz brought in Bill Clinton for a rally in Johnstown yesterday — Brian O’Connor of Red Dog Report has more. And we’ve now got a Memeorandum thread.

UPDATE V: Linked by Da Tech Guy, and here’s Jennifer Rubin at Commentary:

A friend . . .who spent six days in the Pennsylvania 12th district . . . e-mails that he has been going door-to-door for Republican Tim Burns: “The Republican base is more motivated than the other guys and it will be all about turn out. Scott Brown spoke here [Friday]. The Dems are pouring it on, and the SEIU is in this big time, but we’ll win this race.” . . .
A loss for the Democrats in what has been characterized as a “bellwether” district will likely intensify the panic building in Democratic ranks.

What could be better than “panic building in Democratic ranks”?

+ + + + + +

To get the latest updates on the campaign, check #PA12 on Twitter, and you can also follow @TimothyBurns or his campaign’s outreach coordinator, Angela Lash (@Lash3). Anyone who wants to help with the Republican campaign can visit TimBurnsForCongress.com, or e-mail the campaign or call 814-619-3414.

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Comments

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  • chuck cross

    Go Tim Burns!!!!!

  • chuck cross

    Go Tim Burns!!!!!

  • http://silentmajority09.com Robert

    That is good news. I hope that the momentum holds all the way until November and we can purge Washington of all the liberals. Great site. I am adding to my blogroll.

  • http://silentmajority09.com Robert

    That is good news. I hope that the momentum holds all the way until November and we can purge Washington of all the liberals. Great site. I am adding to my blogroll.

  • goddessoftheclassroom

    My local paper endorsed Critz with the headline, “Critz will continue Murtha’s legacy.” I laughed out loud and thought, “That’s exactly the problem.”

  • goddessoftheclassroom

    My local paper endorsed Critz with the headline, “Critz will continue Murtha’s legacy.” I laughed out loud and thought, “That’s exactly the problem.”

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  • Joe
  • Joe
  • Roxeanne de Luca

    I just threw in some money to his campaign – I’m sure they can figure out a way to use it in the next 36 hours.

    As for “outsiders”: When the SEIU shoves money at a campaign, which certainly is NOT coming in from union members located exclusively within the confines of the district, it’s acceptable; it’s only a problem when grassroots conservatives give of their own time and money to help out. Such crap.

  • Roxeanne de Luca

    I just threw in some money to his campaign – I’m sure they can figure out a way to use it in the next 36 hours.

    As for “outsiders”: When the SEIU shoves money at a campaign, which certainly is NOT coming in from union members located exclusively within the confines of the district, it’s acceptable; it’s only a problem when grassroots conservatives give of their own time and money to help out. Such crap.

  • Bo

    At the end of the day, “Blue Dogs” are nothin’ but Pelosi’s bitches!

    Why vote for somebody who’s only going to cave in at the last minute to Rahm Emanuel’s D.C. arm-twisting… against what you really want?

    Go Tim Burns!!!

  • Bo

    At the end of the day, “Blue Dogs” are nothin’ but Pelosi’s bitches!

    Why vote for somebody who’s only going to cave in at the last minute to Rahm Emanuel’s D.C. arm-twisting… against what you really want?

    Go Tim Burns!!!

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  • LorenU

    More dirty politics by the Democrats. This special election should have been held on April 20th or 27th. With the excitement gap of 60-38, Burns would have won by 7 (54-46-1) points.

    To schedule this on a primary date is unfair for two reasons. 1) The only race that had a chance to be hot was the Specter-Sestak race. Even in February, anyone with a political mind could see that was true. 2) PA is a closed primary state. How you are registered will play a huge role tomorrow as Dems get Dem ballots. PA-12 has over 50% dem registration.

    At the end of the ballot is this special election. The Democrats will have to crossover to vote for Burns after voting for Democrats throughout the long ballot.

    Democrats are using all these unfair advantages to keep this seat. Burns should already be in Congress but has to sweat out a close race tomorrow made closer by lying, cheating, and stealing Democrats at all levels of their party.

    The MFM would have cried foul to high heaven if the Republicans tried these tricks. That said, if Burns loses, he would still have a good chance to beat Critz in November.

    If Burns wins, all predictions for November will need a complete reevaluation.

  • LorenU

    More dirty politics by the Democrats. This special election should have been held on April 20th or 27th. With the excitement gap of 60-38, Burns would have won by 7 (54-46-1) points.

    To schedule this on a primary date is unfair for two reasons. 1) The only race that had a chance to be hot was the Specter-Sestak race. Even in February, anyone with a political mind could see that was true. 2) PA is a closed primary state. How you are registered will play a huge role tomorrow as Dems get Dem ballots. PA-12 has over 50% dem registration.

    At the end of the ballot is this special election. The Democrats will have to crossover to vote for Burns after voting for Democrats throughout the long ballot.

    Democrats are using all these unfair advantages to keep this seat. Burns should already be in Congress but has to sweat out a close race tomorrow made closer by lying, cheating, and stealing Democrats at all levels of their party.

    The MFM would have cried foul to high heaven if the Republicans tried these tricks. That said, if Burns loses, he would still have a good chance to beat Critz in November.

    If Burns wins, all predictions for November will need a complete reevaluation.

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