The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

It’s All Over for Lisa the Loser

Posted on | August 26, 2010 | 46 Comments

Joe Miller won the Alaska Republican nomination for Senate, and I’m tired of people pretending that there’s some way Lisa Murkowski can undo her defeat.

It can’t happen, it won’t happen, and every bit of lip-service given to hypothetical miracle resurrection scenarios where it could happen only encourages Murkowski in her delusional belief that “it ain’t over.”

It’s over, Lisa.

You’re through. You are a future ex-senator, and the sooner you admit it, the better off you’ll be.

How many absentee ballots are still out? Somebody said 8,000, and the final vote count gives Joe Miller a 1,668-vote margin. Therefore, those 8,000 absentee ballots would have to break 4,835 for Murkoski to 3,165 for Miller — i.e, a 60% majority for Murkowski — in order for Tuesday’s result to be reversed. Is there any plausible reason to believe absentee voters would be so much more pro-Murkowski than the Election Day voters who went for Miller by 51%?

Answer: No.

The absentee-ballot scenario being demonstrably implausible, we then turn our attention to the prospect of Murkowski dragging out the process in a futile recount effort. Would responsible Republican officials — the grown-ups in the party — countenance such a spoilsport tantrum by the loser of a primary?

Answer: No.

OK, so we proceed to Final Jeopardy: Would Murkowski, who was bequeathed her Senate seat through appointment by her father, former Gov. Frank Murkowski, be a viable third-party candidate?

Answer: No.

All possibilities for the viable continuance of Murkowski’s candidacy are far-fetched conjecture. The AOSHQ Decision Desk made the right call at 4 a.m. Wednesday: Break out the pudding, boys — it’s freaking over.

Having finished off the RINO loser, let me now call your attention to further evidence of why conservatives should not contribute to the NRSC:

Two months ago, National Republican Senatorial Committee officials met with strategists for the Murkowski campaign and urged them to tap her nearly $2 million treasury to begin running ads against Miller, a party official said. The campaign declined, saying that to attack him would merely elevate an opponent whom they did not consider a serious threat, the official said.

Not One Red Cent for the NRSC until John Cornyn resigns and the commitee names and fires those officials who urged Murkowski to run attack ads against Joe Miller. Don’t support the NRSC, support the RINO Killer.

JOE MILLER for U.S. SENATE

Comments

  • Estragon

    Cornyn has made some terrible judgments, especially for a guy as basically conservative as he is. While I dislike NRSC getting involved in open primaries, in particular, it is nothing new and did not originate with Rove, Mehlman, or
    Bush.

    It’s part of candidate recruitment for open seats, the NRSC used to sit back and hope some good guys would choose to run as Republicans. And the Democrats controlled the Senate for more than half a century with only minor interruptions! Once we began recruiting candidates, we began having more success.

    But more than persuasion has always been involved. The NRSC and RNC would pledge certain levels of support, tactical, strategical, and financial. They also pledge to support the candidate against future primary challenges. That’s how you recruit.

    Remember, Republicans aren’t bored millionaire moms in tennis shoes or underemployed community organizers – nearly all our best candidates leave lucrative businesses or careers behind. If you don’t promise to stand by them for the long haul, they pass and you end up with the Huffingtons and Rand Pauls – nuts with a bit of money to blow.

    All this wrath on our side is senseless: our people are calling for the National Republican Senate Campaign Committee to stay the heck out of Republican Senate campaigns . . . Really? If this seems reasonable to you, try to avoid sharp objects and wear a safety helmet at all times.

  • Estragon

    Cornyn has made some terrible judgments, especially for a guy as basically conservative as he is. While I dislike NRSC getting involved in open primaries, in particular, it is nothing new and did not originate with Rove, Mehlman, or
    Bush.

    It’s part of candidate recruitment for open seats, the NRSC used to sit back and hope some good guys would choose to run as Republicans. And the Democrats controlled the Senate for more than half a century with only minor interruptions! Once we began recruiting candidates, we began having more success.

    But more than persuasion has always been involved. The NRSC and RNC would pledge certain levels of support, tactical, strategical, and financial. They also pledge to support the candidate against future primary challenges. That’s how you recruit.

    Remember, Republicans aren’t bored millionaire moms in tennis shoes or underemployed community organizers – nearly all our best candidates leave lucrative businesses or careers behind. If you don’t promise to stand by them for the long haul, they pass and you end up with the Huffingtons and Rand Pauls – nuts with a bit of money to blow.

    All this wrath on our side is senseless: our people are calling for the National Republican Senate Campaign Committee to stay the heck out of Republican Senate campaigns . . . Really? If this seems reasonable to you, try to avoid sharp objects and wear a safety helmet at all times.

  • waylay

    Would Murkowski, who was bequeathed her Senate seat through appointment by her father, former Gov. Frank Murkowski, be a viable third-party candidate?

    Answer: No.

    She may not be a viable third party candidate, but she can be a spoiler.

    What’s Murkowski’s political future in the GOP? She isn’t going to get any cookies by playing nice either from the establishment or from the raving teabaggers. She can at least leave an impression, if not wield power herself, in Alaska politics if she can decisively influence the Senate race away from the ultra conservative teabagger candidate by whatever means and tactics necessary.

  • waylay

    Would Murkowski, who was bequeathed her Senate seat through appointment by her father, former Gov. Frank Murkowski, be a viable third-party candidate?

    Answer: No.

    She may not be a viable third party candidate, but she can be a spoiler.

    What’s Murkowski’s political future in the GOP? She isn’t going to get any cookies by playing nice either from the establishment or from the raving teabaggers. She can at least leave an impression, if not wield power herself, in Alaska politics if she can decisively influence the Senate race away from the ultra conservative teabagger candidate by whatever means and tactics necessary.

  • waylay

    If and when Miller becomes a Senator, don’t be surprised if he personally delivers truck loads of obligatory pork from DC to his highly productive constituents. I just hope there will be enough Mexicans left in America to clean up the mess left by the exploding Teabagger heads.

  • waylay

    If and when Miller becomes a Senator, don’t be surprised if he personally delivers truck loads of obligatory pork from DC to his highly productive constituents. I just hope there will be enough Mexicans left in America to clean up the mess left by the exploding Teabagger heads.

  • Estragon

    Oh, sorry, forgot about Murky (a blessing, that) . . .

    No, she can’t win the primary with absentees or recounts. No, she cannot run independent except as a write-in, and write-in candidates rarely draw enough votes to notice (the only one to win was Strom Thurmond, whose candidacy was a reaction to the disrespectful way the SC Democratic Party replaced the deceased primary winner, incumbent Senator Burnett Maybank, directly after leaving his funeral).

    True, ol’ Wally Hickel once lost a primary and won anyway by winning the nomination of the Alaska Independence Party when their nominee stepped down in his favor, but AIP did not nominate a candidate this year and the deadline is passed.

    Some suggest Murky might replace the Libertarian Party candidate, although why they would give their ballot slot to a big-government establishment drone like her remains in doubt. Since both the candidate and the party would have to agree to it, it sounds like somebody’s been deep in the cooking sherry to come up with that scenario.

    Nope. She’s gone, gone, gone, and good riddance to her. She brought to the office all of her father’s faults and defects and few of his good qualities, if any. Miller is a stellar nominee with a lifetime’s worth of achievements already as he barely enters middle age. He will do Alaska and America proud.

  • Estragon

    Oh, sorry, forgot about Murky (a blessing, that) . . .

    No, she can’t win the primary with absentees or recounts. No, she cannot run independent except as a write-in, and write-in candidates rarely draw enough votes to notice (the only one to win was Strom Thurmond, whose candidacy was a reaction to the disrespectful way the SC Democratic Party replaced the deceased primary winner, incumbent Senator Burnett Maybank, directly after leaving his funeral).

    True, ol’ Wally Hickel once lost a primary and won anyway by winning the nomination of the Alaska Independence Party when their nominee stepped down in his favor, but AIP did not nominate a candidate this year and the deadline is passed.

    Some suggest Murky might replace the Libertarian Party candidate, although why they would give their ballot slot to a big-government establishment drone like her remains in doubt. Since both the candidate and the party would have to agree to it, it sounds like somebody’s been deep in the cooking sherry to come up with that scenario.

    Nope. She’s gone, gone, gone, and good riddance to her. She brought to the office all of her father’s faults and defects and few of his good qualities, if any. Miller is a stellar nominee with a lifetime’s worth of achievements already as he barely enters middle age. He will do Alaska and America proud.

  • http://threebeerslater.blogspot.com richard mcenroe

    “Would responsible Republican officials — the grown-ups in the party — countenance such a spoilsport tantrum by the loser of a primary?

    Answer: No.”

    Assumes a mighty crapload of facts not in evidence, your honor. Just look at what the NRSC already tried to pull on Miller.

    And what is the GOP mainstream’s record on loyal good losers taking one for the team? Crist, Scozzafava, Specter…

  • http://threebeerslater.blogspot.com richard mcenroe

    “Would responsible Republican officials — the grown-ups in the party — countenance such a spoilsport tantrum by the loser of a primary?

    Answer: No.”

    Assumes a mighty crapload of facts not in evidence, your honor. Just look at what the NRSC already tried to pull on Miller.

    And what is the GOP mainstream’s record on loyal good losers taking one for the team? Crist, Scozzafava, Specter…

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  • Mike Kryschtal

    Alaska does not have an open primary. In order to vote for in the Republican primary, the voter must either be a registered Republican, or nonpartisan and undeclared.

    5801 absentee ballots were mailed out to Alaskans voting in the Republican Senatorial Primary.

    Including absentee ballots 98,187 ballots were issued for the Republican Senatorial primary.

    In order to win the senate primary a candidate must have at least 49,094 votes.

    Joe Miller currently has 47,027 votes. He needs 2067 out of the available 5801(36%) possible absentee votes to win.

    Lisa Murkowski currently has 45359 votes. She needs 3735 out of the available 5810 (64%) possible absentee votes to win.

    This calculation assumes that all 5801 absentee ballots are returned and counted.

    The bottom line is that Murkowski needs to receive about two thirds of the absentee ballots to win the election, while Miller only needs one third.

  • Mike Kryschtal

    Alaska does not have an open primary. In order to vote for in the Republican primary, the voter must either be a registered Republican, or nonpartisan and undeclared.

    5801 absentee ballots were mailed out to Alaskans voting in the Republican Senatorial Primary.

    Including absentee ballots 98,187 ballots were issued for the Republican Senatorial primary.

    In order to win the senate primary a candidate must have at least 49,094 votes.

    Joe Miller currently has 47,027 votes. He needs 2067 out of the available 5801(36%) possible absentee votes to win.

    Lisa Murkowski currently has 45359 votes. She needs 3735 out of the available 5810 (64%) possible absentee votes to win.

    This calculation assumes that all 5801 absentee ballots are returned and counted.

    The bottom line is that Murkowski needs to receive about two thirds of the absentee ballots to win the election, while Miller only needs one third.

  • Jeff

    keep dreaming waylay … troll

  • Jeff

    keep dreaming waylay … troll

  • listingstarboard

    Yes Waylay, because Mexicans have done such a great job cleaning up the mess in Mexico. And the success of Bell, California run entirely by Mexicans. Yep, Mexicans are vastly superior to us hard working taxpaying clean living family oriented white Republicans.

  • listingstarboard

    Yes Waylay, because Mexicans have done such a great job cleaning up the mess in Mexico. And the success of Bell, California run entirely by Mexicans. Yep, Mexicans are vastly superior to us hard working taxpaying clean living family oriented white Republicans.

  • Joe

    Lisa needs to be gracious and back Miller now. That is just the way it has to be.

  • Joe

    Lisa needs to be gracious and back Miller now. That is just the way it has to be.

  • Jeff Weimer

    @Joe

    I get a feeling that’s not going to happen. Too much personal emotion wrapped up in it, with her bad blood with Palin and such. At best, she’ll merely keep her mouth shut.

  • Jeff Weimer

    @Joe

    I get a feeling that’s not going to happen. Too much personal emotion wrapped up in it, with her bad blood with Palin and such. At best, she’ll merely keep her mouth shut.

  • http://keaneobservation.blogspot.com/ Largebill

    Not sure about Alaska, but some states have election laws that prohibit running as an independent after losing a primary contest. Those rules are intended to avoid sore loser spoilers in general elections.

    Don’t know Murkowski’s nature that well, but doubt she will try stupid stuff to drag this out as long as the lead stays as big as it is.

    I’m not going to cry over her departure, but she has not been another Specter. She hasn’t even been as bad as Snowe or Collins. While we are dancing on her political grave, we should consider what role she might play in the Dem’s lame duck congressional session is something to consider. If we’re gracious in victory she may be less likely to vote with Dems out of spite.

  • waylay

    Gracious? Bad blood?

    Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton had political futures (and ideological legacies?) to think in their defeats but what future does Murkowski have, what ideological legacy and party loyalty (now hijacked by teabagger extremists) does the moderate republican have (other than her own family’s perhaps) to think about? What’s the point in her being gracious or silent in a bitter defeat?

    Maybe the Palins will throw a moose pie party to console Lisa? LMAO!

  • http://keaneobservation.blogspot.com/ Largebill

    Not sure about Alaska, but some states have election laws that prohibit running as an independent after losing a primary contest. Those rules are intended to avoid sore loser spoilers in general elections.

    Don’t know Murkowski’s nature that well, but doubt she will try stupid stuff to drag this out as long as the lead stays as big as it is.

    I’m not going to cry over her departure, but she has not been another Specter. She hasn’t even been as bad as Snowe or Collins. While we are dancing on her political grave, we should consider what role she might play in the Dem’s lame duck congressional session is something to consider. If we’re gracious in victory she may be less likely to vote with Dems out of spite.

  • waylay

    Gracious? Bad blood?

    Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton had political futures (and ideological legacies?) to think in their defeats but what future does Murkowski have, what ideological legacy and party loyalty (now hijacked by teabagger extremists) does the moderate republican have (other than her own family’s perhaps) to think about? What’s the point in her being gracious or silent in a bitter defeat?

    Maybe the Palins will throw a moose pie party to console Lisa? LMAO!

  • gahrie

    The NRSC calls me at least once a day, even though when I break down and actually answer the call I tell them I am not going to donate any money to the republican party until they pull their heads out and stop acting like Democrat-lite.

    I wonder how much money they have spent paying people to call me and ask for money? I bet it is more than I would have donated in the first place…

  • gahrie

    The NRSC calls me at least once a day, even though when I break down and actually answer the call I tell them I am not going to donate any money to the republican party until they pull their heads out and stop acting like Democrat-lite.

    I wonder how much money they have spent paying people to call me and ask for money? I bet it is more than I would have donated in the first place…

  • waylay

    @gahrie

    Still over two months to go, and you might as well breakdown and finally donate some substantial money just to keep the NRSC business intelligence software agents happy and the daily phone calls/emails/smses etc away.

  • waylay

    @gahrie

    Still over two months to go, and you might as well breakdown and finally donate some substantial money just to keep the NRSC business intelligence software agents happy and the daily phone calls/emails/smses etc away.

  • http://leatherpenguin.com/wordpress TC@LeatherPenguin

    Has anyone else noticed that an infestation of Lib/Prog trolls–some of the “concern” ilk–have been been appearing in a lot of right-leaning sites’ comment threads lately?

    I blame it on the fear/panic they are suffering when confronting the fact that their HopeyChangey ‘Unicorns for Everyone!’ rhetoric has been overwhelmingly rejected by an American electorate that is so pissed off they are ready to take roles in an Americanized version of the finale of “Les Miz.”

  • http://leatherpenguin.com/wordpress TC@LeatherPenguin

    Has anyone else noticed that an infestation of Lib/Prog trolls–some of the “concern” ilk–have been been appearing in a lot of right-leaning sites’ comment threads lately?

    I blame it on the fear/panic they are suffering when confronting the fact that their HopeyChangey ‘Unicorns for Everyone!’ rhetoric has been overwhelmingly rejected by an American electorate that is so pissed off they are ready to take roles in an Americanized version of the finale of “Les Miz.”

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  • http://www.haemet.blogivists.cm Roxeanne de Luca

    One of the loads of things that irks me about these inside-the-Beltway political types is that they simply do not understand how the rest of the country thinks and operates. If Murkowski were running in Massachusetts or California, you might hold your nose and vote for the lady, because she’s the most conservative you’re going to get. Alaska, however, can happily elect people to the right of Rand Paul, so why put up with a Murkowski when a Miller is available?

  • http://www.haemet.blogivists.cm Roxeanne de Luca

    One of the loads of things that irks me about these inside-the-Beltway political types is that they simply do not understand how the rest of the country thinks and operates. If Murkowski were running in Massachusetts or California, you might hold your nose and vote for the lady, because she’s the most conservative you’re going to get. Alaska, however, can happily elect people to the right of Rand Paul, so why put up with a Murkowski when a Miller is available?

  • Rob

    I’m hopping that in this up and coming GOP Congress won’t screw it up again. I’m glad we are going far right…balance the budget, curtail spending EVEN IN THE DEFENSE BUDGET. BTW, good job Gates! Keep it up. And in other crazy predictions…John Dennis is pulling his district according to a recent interview on his website or at least that’s what he hinted at…when you have $1M, you need to poll in a race like CA-8. John Dennis is doing what that wanna-be Speaker of the House can’t do, and that is firing Pelosi!

  • Rob

    I’m hopping that in this up and coming GOP Congress won’t screw it up again. I’m glad we are going far right…balance the budget, curtail spending EVEN IN THE DEFENSE BUDGET. BTW, good job Gates! Keep it up. And in other crazy predictions…John Dennis is pulling his district according to a recent interview on his website or at least that’s what he hinted at…when you have $1M, you need to poll in a race like CA-8. John Dennis is doing what that wanna-be Speaker of the House can’t do, and that is firing Pelosi!

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  • mrethiopian

    Lisa you sided with the corporations, when you should have sided with the people. Simply selling out America to the highest bidder will not be tolerated

  • mrethiopian

    Lisa you sided with the corporations, when you should have sided with the people. Simply selling out America to the highest bidder will not be tolerated

  • inspectorudy

    someone above asked about the “Sore Loser Law”. Yes Alaska has one. If you are defeated in the primary you cannot run as an Independent like the scum sucking Crist did.

  • inspectorudy

    someone above asked about the “Sore Loser Law”. Yes Alaska has one. If you are defeated in the primary you cannot run as an Independent like the scum sucking Crist did.

  • Harmony

    As a volunteer on the Joe Miller campaign I would like to say that Lisa can be pretty and she obviously has some popularity in the State as this is a very close race.
    That said GO JOE MILLER!! Anxiously awaiting the final results!!

  • Harmony

    As a volunteer on the Joe Miller campaign I would like to say that Lisa can be pretty and she obviously has some popularity in the State as this is a very close race.
    That said GO JOE MILLER!! Anxiously awaiting the final results!!

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