The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

BULLETIN: 5.0 Earthquake Hits Vanuatu; New Poll Shows Rick Santorum Headed for ‘Commanding Win’ in Louisiana Primary

Posted on | March 23, 2012 | 21 Comments

BATON ROUGE, Louisiana
News that the South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu was shaken today by a 5.0-magnitude earthquake reached me at just the same time as news that the latest poll shows Rick Santorum way ahead here:

Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.
It’s interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week’s results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that’s about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that’s why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week’s contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%
Santorum’s entire lead in Louisiana is coming with the furthest right factions of the Republican Party. He leads Romney 50-23 with ‘very conservative’ voters, 44-22 with Tea Partiers, and 51-23 with Evangelicals. Santorum also appears to have the late momentum on his side. Among those who’ve decided who to vote for in the last few days he’s at 47% to just 25% for Romney. That suggests he could end up winning by an ever wider margin than he has in this poll.

Ever since Dec. 1 — when an earthquake in Vanuate coincided with Santorum’s prediction that he would “surprise a lot of people” in Iowa — there has been a weird correlation between seismic events in the former French colony and surprising developments in the 2012 presidential campaign. The tale of my interest in this tiny island republic is perhaps too complex to relate in detail, but here are the key posts:

Basically, my wild mood swings, mirroring the gyrations in the GOP presidential race, have become inextricably linked to my ambitions for a diplomatic career as the first U.S. Ambassador to Vanuatu, a gig Rick Santorum promised me in early December when he was still in single digits in all the polls. (Don’t even think about reneging on that promise, Rick: I’ve got it on audio.)

That earthquake in Vanuatu on Dec. 1 became, to me, the cosmic portent — In Hoc Signo Vinces — that Santorum was 2012’s Man of Destiny and now, despite all the gaffes and disappointments and pundit talk about Romney’s “inevitability,” what do we see? Voters “abandoning Gingrich for Santorum,” so that the primary in Louisiana (once counted solidly in Newt’s column) is now looking like a double-digit blowout victory for Santorum.

You think Romney is “inevitable”? OK. Just don’t say it too loudly. God might hear you, and if The Big One hits Vanuatu . . .

Well, strange things keep happening. Probably just a coincidence.

UPDATE: Didn’t I just say strange things keep happening?

Newt: Why does Obama ‘behave the way
that people would think’ he’s Muslim?

Is that a “gaffe”? Is it just Newt’s desperate bid for for fringe votes? Or has Newt made a legitimate point that he might not bother to bring up in public if he weren’t so far down in the polls?

I’m just askin’ questions . . . Also, for reasons too complex to explain briefly, you should go hit Lisa Graas’s tip jar immediately.

Just do it, please.

UPDATE II: Almost forgot to hat-tip CO2Hog and Tah Deetz for the Twitter tip about the Vanuatu earthquake.


Category: Election 2012, Louisiana, Polls, Rick Santorum, Vanuatu

Comments

21 Responses to “BULLETIN: 5.0 Earthquake Hits Vanuatu; New Poll Shows Rick Santorum Headed for ‘Commanding Win’ in Louisiana Primary”

  1. Adjoran
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 2:38 pm

    Idiot.

  2. Finrod Felagund
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 2:57 pm

    Herman Cain disagrees with you, Stacy, regarding Newt:

    http://dailycaller.com/2012/03/22/cain-newt-shouldnt-listen-to-those-calling-for-him-to-drop-out/

  3. richard mcenroe
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 2:59 pm

    53%? Feh.Barely outside the margin of error. And it’s not like LA’s a serious blue state er nuthin.

  4. James Z
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 3:08 pm

    If Santorum was running for President of Mormon-hating Evangelicals, it would be no contest.

    Once you get outside of that group though, he gets clobbered.   The national polling has Romney destroying Santorum.

    Maybe the South should secede, you’d just have to hope they wouldn’t find out about what the Papist has said about Protestants.

  5. Charles
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 3:21 pm

    I think we’re just talking about bragging rights now, with second place a set of steak knives and a 40% chance to be the nominee in 2016 or 2020. Third place, of course, is you’re fired.

    http://www.leftbankofthecharles.com/2012/03/republican-bragging-rights-primary.html

  6. robertstacymccain
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 3:26 pm

    Am I to assume the “idiot” is aimed at James Z?

    Or is it toward me? Santorum?

  7. A Stephens
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 3:26 pm

     Wow.  Really?

    Did you cut your teeth in a DNC activist training camp and sewer?  That’s some classic progresso-style misdirection headspin right there.

  8. Red
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 3:32 pm

    A quake in Vanuatu? My goodness Stacy, I sure hope it didn’t spill your drink!

  9. richard mcenroe
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 3:41 pm

    When Stacy was rescued after being washed out to sea during the Krakatoa eruption/tidal wave, his only complaint was too much wateri
    on his whiskey.

  10. robertstacymccain
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 3:52 pm

    In point of fact, I stopped drinking whiskey after an unfortunate falling-out with my old friend Jack Daniels in 2000.

    Strictly beer, and never to excess.

    Of course, “excess” is a term of art.

  11. Zilla of the Resistance
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 3:57 pm

    I’m with Stacy and Rick, of course, and I would like to second the suggestion that everybody hit Lisa’s tip jar!  Do it for me, for Stacy, for America, and Vanuatu!

  12. Asian_chic
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 4:02 pm

    Does anyone realize that today is the second anniversary of Obamacare? Mittens said it’s a failure, raises taxes and infringes on religious liberty. That’s laughable coming from a guy who urge O to adapt the same crap in MA. Where is the outrage? And people want to big a deal over a comment about Mittens and O being the same? We all KNOW it’s true!

  13. Red
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 4:03 pm

    What that man goes through…

  14. Mortimer Snerd
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 4:04 pm

    Yumi, yumi, yumi!

  15. CCR
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 5:06 pm

    Or was he looking in the mirror?

  16. CCR
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 5:08 pm

    Stacy, are you sure about this ambassadorship to Vanuatu? Seems to me they’ve been having more than their share of earthquakes lately, which can mean only one thing…

    Godzilla is waking up. And he’s in a mood.

  17. Zilla of the Resistance
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 5:32 pm

    BTW Stacy, thanks for reminding me why I freaking hate politico and avoid following links to their leftist site. I know you hate Newt, but can’t you link to someone who isn’t in the tank for Oblamer?

  18. Bob Belvedere
    March 23rd, 2012 @ 7:45 pm

    Let’s look on the bright side: as you said last year Stacy, Willard will make a lovely concession speech in November.

  19. richard mcenroe
    March 24th, 2012 @ 12:14 am

     It’ll probably be the same speech he’s been chanting through the primaries.  At that point no one will bother writing him a new one.

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