Posted on | October 16, 2012 | 36 Comments
Impt to note on our national poll- 75% of interviews conducted within 48 hrs of debate. Would encourage Dems to wait a week before PANIC
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 9, 2012
“Disaster is now coming at Democrats from multiple unexpected directions.”
— Robert Stacy McCain, Oct. 11
A lot of news today, starting with this Hot Air headline:
And it’s also 50-46 in the latest Gallup tracking poll.
This is the quite specific circumstance — Romney leading national polls by four points going into the second debate — I described Oct. 7 as the “Fear and Loathing” scenario that could trigger a complete meltdown among Obama supporters. They’re up against the wall and they know it, and if Obama doesn’t score a clear win tonight . . .
Well, “don’t get cocky,” eh?
Monday night I had a phone conversation with Ali Akbar in which he wanted me to give odds on tonight’s debate result, which I refused to do. We simply cannot predict such an event in advance. It could be a disaster for Obama or a disaster for Rommey. We know that if Obama does OK — if the debate is no worse than a draw for him — the liberal media will spin it as an Obama “win,” just as they initially cheered the “Crazy Uncle Joe” show last week, before it became obvious that swing voters were turned off by Biden’s weirdness.
As Ed Morrissey says, it’s unlikely that tonight’s debate will be the kind of game-changer we saw Oct. 3 — hey, who called it, huh? — but you just never know, especially with the “town hall” format. When we were kids, we played a card game called “Dr. Pepper,” which is poker where 2’s, 4’s and 10’s are wild. With twelve wild cards in a deck of 52, just about anything was possible, including five of a kind. So it is with a “town hall” debate, and nobody can predict the outcome in advance. However . . .
We can reasonably predict contingencies — “If X, then Y” — and therefore: If Mitt somehow pulls off a second clear debate victory tonight, then Democrats will go into Full-Blown Freakout Mode. And here’s another predictable contingency:
If Perot had endorsed Obama, then this item would have sailed to the top of Memeorandum, with all the liberal bloggers trumpeting it as the ultimate proof of Obama’s worthiness for re-election. But instead — if/then — we’ll see the Perot endorsement either ignored, or else subjected to scoffing as the act of an irrelevant dingbat.
Remember the scorn heaped on Lindsay Lohan for her Romney endorsement? Celebrities routinely line up to endorse Democrats, but let one starlet stray from the Hollywood herd, and suddenly “slut” becomes an acceptable term among otherwise oh-so-“civil” liberals.
Likewise predictable: If there is any glimmer of encouragement in polls, then Nate Silver starts whistling past the graveyard again.
So while it is still wwaaaaayy too early to predict the outcome on Nov. 6, we are beginning to see possible signs and omens of future events.
UPDATE: Yet another panic signal? “Romney Closing In On Obama In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds.” If Obama can’t turn it around in tonight’s debate, so that the momentum shift toward Romney continues enough to put Pennsylvania genuinely in doubt, the whole thing could fall apart for Democrats.
- Oct. 15: Did You Say ‘Preference Cascade’?
- Oct. 14: ‘Media Credibility Day Is Coming’
- Oct. 11: Benghazi Breakdown: Team Obama, Liberals Now in Full Freak-Out Mode
- Oct. 9: Expect the Unexpected: Why Liberals Suddenly Melted Down After the Debate
- Oct. 8: Liberals Beginning to Realize They’ve Overestimated Obama’s Popularity?