The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Ross Perot Endorses Romney, New Polls Confirm Shift, Will #p2 Dems Panic Now?

Posted on | October 16, 2012 | 36 Comments

“Disaster is now coming at Democrats from multiple unexpected directions.”
Robert Stacy McCain, Oct. 11

A lot of news today, starting with this Hot Air headline:

Romney hits 50%, leads by 4
in PPP/Daily Kos national poll

And it’s also 50-46 in the latest Gallup tracking poll.

This is the quite specific circumstance — Romney leading national polls by four points going into the second debate — I described Oct. 7 as the “Fear and Loathing” scenario that could trigger a complete meltdown among Obama supporters. They’re up against the wall and they know it, and if Obama doesn’t score a clear win tonight . . .

Well, “don’t get cocky,” eh?

Monday night I had a phone conversation with Ali Akbar in which he wanted me to give odds on tonight’s debate result, which I refused to do. We simply cannot predict such an event in advance. It could be a disaster for Obama or a disaster for Rommey. We know that if Obama does OK — if the debate is no worse than a draw for him — the liberal media will spin it as an Obama “win,” just as they initially cheered the “Crazy Uncle Joe” show last week, before it became obvious that swing voters were turned off by Biden’s weirdness.

As Ed Morrissey says, it’s unlikely that tonight’s debate will be the kind of game-changer we saw Oct. 3 — hey, who called it, huh? — but you just never know, especially with the “town hall” format. When we were kids, we played a card game called “Dr. Pepper,” which is poker where 2’s, 4’s and 10’s are wild. With twelve wild cards in a deck of 52, just about anything was possible, including five of a kind. So it is with a “town hall” debate, and nobody can predict the outcome in advance. However . . .

We can reasonably predict contingencies — “If X, then Y” — and therefore: If Mitt somehow pulls off a second clear debate victory tonight, then Democrats will go into Full-Blown Freakout Mode. And here’s another predictable contingency:

Citing bad economy, Ross Perot backs Romney

If Perot had endorsed Obama, then this item would have sailed to the top of Memeorandum, with all the liberal bloggers trumpeting it as the ultimate proof of Obama’s worthiness for re-election. But instead — if/then — we’ll see the Perot endorsement either ignored, or else subjected to scoffing as the act of an irrelevant dingbat.

Remember the scorn heaped on Lindsay Lohan for her Romney endorsement? Celebrities routinely line up to endorse Democrats, but let one starlet stray from the Hollywood herd, and suddenly “slut” becomes an acceptable term among otherwise oh-so-“civil” liberals.

Likewise predictable: If there is any glimmer of encouragement in polls, then Nate Silver starts whistling past the graveyard again.

So while it is still wwaaaaayy too early to predict the outcome on Nov. 6, we are beginning to see possible signs and omens of future events.

‘All Is Proceeding as I Have Foreseen’

UPDATE: Yet another panic signal? “Romney Closing In On Obama In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds.” If Obama can’t turn it around in tonight’s debate, so that the momentum shift toward Romney continues enough to put Pennsylvania genuinely in doubt, the whole thing could fall apart for Democrats.
 




 

RECENTLY:

Bookmark and Share

Comments

  • http://twitter.com/RangerSG Shawn Gillogly

    80 “Undecided” voters in New York? At a University. Let’s just say I thoroughly expect multiple ‘gotcha’ style questions aimed at Romney tonight.

    I will be unable to watch the debate live, as I will be attending the USAvsGuatemala World Cup Qualifier here @ Livestrong Park tonight. But I’ll catch whatever I can after.

  • http://wizbangblog.com/ Adjoran

    Yes, there is just no telling what will happen in a debate, or how it will be perceived by the home audience. Biden’s performance cheered up the base but turned women off.

    Remember Bush the Elder checking his watch in his Town Hall debate in 1992? It was widely interpreted as being bored, wanting the debate to end – but he was actually trying to catch the moderator’s eye because Clinton was talking past the time limit on every question.

    So what happens if Candi Crowley decides to ignore the Debate Commission rules and the agreement between the candidates and take over the debate? Does Romney rebuke her? Remind her of the rules? Or let her get away with it?

    Obama is too spineless to do that, and besides, any active role she takes will be to save his scrawny butt.

  • JeffS

    If the Obama Supporter Apocalypse come to be, then I predict a shortage of salt, butter, and popcorn nationwide

  • Bill

    What he said. This is a major setup. “80 ‘Undecided’ voters in New York? At a University. Let’s just say I
    thoroughly expect multiple ‘gotcha’ style questions aimed at Romney
    tonight.”

  • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady
  • Roxeanne de Luca

    I’ll say about this debate what I said about VP debate (and the Obama campaign in general): Obama needs to convince Americans that another four years of his Presidency will be fundamentally different (and better) than the last four.

    So long as Romney hammers him on “You already had four years to achieve that goal, two of which were with super-majorities of your own party in the House and Senate,” it will be very, very difficult for Obama to make his case.

    You can win a debate and lose an election, but you can’t, as an incumbent with a horrific economy, win popular support without having a solid plan for improvement. Solid plans, backed up with math, aren’t exactly Obama’s forte. He’s good at hopes, dreams, and motivational speeches. (As I said after the Gabby Giffords shooting, a great speech won’t change his Presidency nor define it, because his inabilities aren’t in speaking or communicating. His lack of ability is in doing the damn job.)

  • Adobe_Walls

    World Cup Qualifier. Is that the sport they invented so folks would have an excuse to blow vuvuzelas?

  • Pingback: Jackie Wellfonder - Raging Against the Rhetoric – The Big Endorsement

  • http://twitter.com/RangerSG Shawn Gillogly

    Nope, it’s the World’s most popular sport. One they don’t need a WAVE to make people cheer.

  • http://twitter.com/RangerSG Shawn Gillogly

    Crowley has already said she WILL disregard the agreement and ask ‘follow-up’ questions. If I was Romney, I’d answer the 1st one as follows, “Our agreement was to take as many questions from the audience as possible. You have a distinct pod for your personal questions. I’ll answer this then. Why don’t we ask what the voters, who truly matter, think in their time?”

  • Adobe_Walls

    Crowley has already defined her role as being more than what the commission and the campaigns agreed. Apparently no one even gave Crowley a copy let alone asked/demanded she agreed to abide by it. I assume the same goes for CNN which begs the question what was the point of an agreement in the first place? I smell a rat.

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    Ur doin it rong

    Oh, that’s not Brazilian for vajayjay?

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    Any truth to the rumor I just started that they’re gonna rename it “LiveJuiced Park”?

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    I sure hope the Secret Service guys are really on their game the next few months. Even if it takes more hookers.

    It’s getting to where I’m starting to wonder about the stability of some of the Dems closer to the supposed center.

    And where would that be anyway? (Now that Bill Ayers has been mainstreamed by the media and the major players on the left.) I’ll swear this is looking too easy all of a sudden.

    TIme for another trip to the “Huntin’ License” store, as senator Kerry would call it.

  • http://twitter.com/ThatChristyChic Christy Waters

    Wait, I thought the race was over a few weeks ago. Libs were saying Romney should just concede, and let Dear Leader ascend to the lofty heights for another 4 years.

    I didn’t know Perot was still alive. Wonders never cease.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    And it’s a sport for pussies.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    I’ve smelled so much rat over the past four years, my nose has stopped recognizing the odor.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    Willard’s is big trouble! Once you’ve lost Honey Boo Boo…

  • Wombat_socho

    Futbol es por los que no pueden el beisbol.

  • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady

    Here is my prescription for tonight! Make, Drink, Repeat.

    And the race is over anyway, given the endorsement that came out for Barack Obama last night.

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    It’s only a step removed from Lord Of The Dance. You get a ball to kick, and you don’t have to stay in line.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    Well put, Roxe.

    One Quibble: Obama – or at least his minions – have done their ‘damn job’. By overt and covert means they have been fundamentally transforming The United States government into a more Fascist one [examples: Obamacare, repeal of ‘Don’t ask don’t tell’, unconstitutional executive orders, unconstitutional regulations].

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    A capital idea for the ladies out there!

    Here’s the comment I left over at Evi’s joint:

    Thank you, Evi, for not calling the first drink [you list] a Martini.

    A Martini involves gin and vermouth and a vegetable [eg: olives or tomolives or lemon twist].

    Substitute vodka for the gin and what you have in NO LONGER a Martini, but, rather, the Kangeroo Cocktail [some call it a Vesper, but that is a cocktail with gin and vodka, mixed with, instead of vermouth, Lillet (an aperitif wine)].

    Here endeth the lesson.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    ¡Sí! Es un juego para los cojos.

  • http://wizbangblog.com/ Adjoran

    & drunken rowdies who like to pee down each other’s legs and riot when they lose.

    Soccer is siphoning our vital national body fluids and must be stopped!

  • http://wizbangblog.com/ Adjoran

    There go the low-information voters humanoid-like creatures.

  • http://wizbangblog.com/ Adjoran

    The media has completely beclowned themselves this year. It was bad enough they failed to vet Obama last time, but this cycle they have been working OT to cover for him. Did you realize the New York Times has yet to put a Libya story on Page 1 since the attack?

    The joke is on them, because the Obama base (besides the hard leftists) of black and young voters and single women under 40 are notorious for being easily discouraged about elections. When it’s apparent there is no more “cool” to be had with Obama, no more jubilant marches singing “We Are The World,” that in fact they are NOT the people they’d been waiting for, their turnout is going to be affected.

    That’s what happens when you build a coalition of low-info voters.

  • Adobe_Walls

    El queso es viejo y mohoso. ¿Dónde está el baño?

  • Adobe_Walls

    To the wall with the lot.

  • Pingback: Well, I Believe Romney Came Out Ahead | hogewash

  • Quartermaster

    There are no centrist Dems. They are all far left. The GOP is mostly left of center themselves. The country has shifted left since Hoover.

    The loony left, which makes up most of the Dem party these days, is not stable.

  • http://2012.ak4mc.us/ McGehee

    Yo quiero dos tacos y dos burritos, por favor. Y dos mas cervezas.

  • http://boogieforward.us/ K-Bob

    Exactly. If I were running for office today as a Republican, I wouldn’t trust the GOP any more than I’d trust a pack of wolves.

    But the thought of getting involved with what the Dems have become looks to me like crossing the boundaries of sanity altogether.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    El baño se encuentra al lado de la máquina taco.

  • Quartermaster

    It will prolly be years before your smeller returns to some semlblance of normal. It’s gonna take a very long time to rid DC of the stench.

  • Quartermaster

    Better wtahc it or the insane will be suing you for malicious slander :-P