Posted on | October 25, 2012 | 13 Comments
Mixed signals about the state of the presidential campaign in Virginia. Obama drew a reported 15,000 people to a rally in Richmond today, and has reportedly scheduled an appearance next week with Bill Clinton in Manassas. Meanwhile, Paul Ryan had a rally this morning in Bristol and will have another rally this evening in Charlottesville, while Romney is scheduled for three stops Sunday in Virginia, including his own rally in Richmond.
It therefore would appear that Virginia is still a hotly contested battleground, yet there is apparent confirmation today of a rumor I heard Tuesday, namely that Obama has pulled half his staff from Virginia and also quit polling the state. So what’s actually happening?
My best guess, based on observation, polls and anecdotal reports: Romney will win Virginia, and the Democrats know it, but — but — the question is whether Romney will win Virginia by enough of a margin to allow the networks to call the state early. If Obama can make a strong enough showing to keep Virginia in the “too close to call” column past 9 p.m. Eastern time, then this avoids the kind of clear shift on the Electoral College map that might suppress late Democrat turnout in the West, which would help tip Iowa, Colorado and Nevada toward Romney.
So the massive Republican get-out-the-vote effort in Virginia — which I have had a chance to watch first-hand — will continue.
Something else: Notice the Left’s desperate pushback, including the latest from Nate Silver, against the idea that Romney has momentum coming out of the debates. This is because, of course, Romney has momentum coming out of the debates.
Graveyard whistling can be sweet music.