Virginia Shocker: Cantor Canned

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by Smitty


Virginia is for lovers of elections and political gymnastics. Since its 2009 inception, the Tea Party had run an insurgency to force conventions for state-wide elections, which resulted in (what I thought) was a dynamite slate for last November’s elections: Cuccinelli/Jackson/Obenshain. Alas, the GOP elite didn’t seem to care much about this off-year contest, as Her Majesty’s favorite, Greasy Terry, schmoozed in to take the governor’s mansion.

Of course, the first thing T-Mac wanted was some fat Medicaid cash to cement the bluing of the state. Virginia law precludes governors running for re-election. That’s a feature, though: all the “federal” dollars (how, exactly, they differ from traditional frogskins exceeds this blog’s knowledge) wouldn’t be running out until McAuliffe was artfully exiting.

The GOP still controls the Virginia House, though, and has been fighting a delaying action to preclude the fiscal calamity of expanding the Medicaaid rolls without, you know, the economic foundation to pay for it when the day of reckoning arrives. Raaaaacist arithmetic, and all.

Recently, the GOP regained control of the Virginia Senate through means that are greasy enough to make Terry McAuliffe take notice. The sudden, convenient resignation of a Democrat Virginia State Senator could derail the Medicaid expansion and force McAuliffe to deal with a record in office that isn’t an Obama-esque fiscal disaster.

Within that context comes the news that the U.S. House Majority Leader, Eric Cantor, got whacked.

A solid, double-digit delivery for Brat. But what’s it all about? Politico reports:

Cantor is the second House incumbent to lose this primary season — Texas GOP incumbent Ralph Hall was defeated by a tea-party backed challenger at the end of May.

There were warning signs that kept piling up. In April, Brat supporters vastly outnumbered Cantor allies at local GOP meetings. Then in May, tea party fueled activists knocked off Cantor’s choice for local GOP chair in Cantor’s home base of Henrico County. But Cantor’s aides consistently brushed off the challenge, telling reporters and fellow GOP aides that the contest didn’t merit the media coverage it was getting

Brat severely trailed in fundraising, pulling in $200,000 this cycle compared to Cantor’s $2 million.

The AP gets to the heart of it:

Much of the campaign centered on immigration, where critics on both sides of the debate have recently taken aim at Cantor. Brat has accused him of being a top cheerleader for “amnesty” for immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally. Cantor has responded forcefully by boasting in mailers of blocking Senate plans “to give illegal aliens amnesty.”

And so the toppling of Cantor will lead to a gut check for the GOP: go all “scorched earth” and run amnesty through despite the base, or deal with the reality that those spiffy Progressive ideas have all the appeal of a dirty diaper outside the Beltway.

It would be great to say I’m confident that the latter will occur. The GOP will recognize the need for reform. The GOP will at least borrow some fortitude and ignore the Graham/McCain/Boehner Axis of Deadwood.

I don’t think that’s how this works. The Tea Party has to root out incumbents one at a time. The resources just don’t exist to start an entirely new party, much less blow away all the incumbent deadwood at once.

This will be a slow and steady effort. Congratulations to Brat, and a toast to avoiding becoming that which he despises.

101 comments

  1. Strictly speaking, you are not forbidden to run for re-election as Governor of VA. You are forbidden to serve consecutive terms as Governor of VA. I know what you meant …

  2. Dang! That’s like a sidewalk slam followed by a top rope leg drop.

    Eric , if you happen to read this tonight, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.

  6. If Cantor has any real character and respect for his constituents, his party and the political process he will return whatever campaign funds he has left with the recommendation his supporters vote for Brat in November.

  8. It was ALL immigration, added to hubris, that did Cantor in. He might well have still won easily – as was expected, most only hoped Brat could make it close enough to put the Fear of God into Cantor – if he hadn’t decided to flaunt his desire for amnesty just before the election. Only days later, all these teens and kids began to flow in on the promise Obama would let them stay.

    Bad timing? Bad luck? Well, if you drop trou, bend over and spread ’em, don’t try to blame luck if something flies up the old bunghole.

    But I have to LAUGH at the “tea party victory” line. What a joke. Yeah, some of the local TP folks in the district were on board, but Brat made a point of contacting every national Tea Party group when he got in the race. NONE helped. Not a freakin’ dime.

    The only outside support he got was Laura Ingraham, who held a big rally for him and made news.

    But now the TP guys want to take the credit? Reminds of the old “stages of a project” process where the last step is “Praise and honor for the non-participants.”

  9. He darned well better endorse Brat.

    If you can name me two other defeated candidates in federal elections who EVER returned their leftover campaign money, maybe I’ll join that call.

    HINT: don’t even think about Christine O’Donnell, she lived off her unspent millions for a few years.

  11. TP “groups” ain’t TP “guys”. I’ve never sent a penny to a TP “group” anymore than to the RNC, I spend it on TP candidates, and yeah, I give more weight to TP opinion than the RNC’s.

    Sometimes that’s a weakness: the TP has no mechanism for a race like, say, SC’s. There’s no one who can go in and say, look, none of you has more than 10% or whatever. We need to start seeing some withdrawals and endorsements here.

  16. Of course, cmdr358 and I will be on both sides of the swinging saloon doors to make sure the spikes we nailed into them will most definitely hit Eric Cantor in the ass.

    Probably several times.

    Then we’ll turn away, holding our beers, whistling like it’s all, “what?”

  22. Brat himself disclaims the Tea Party label, although he grateful for local Tea Party support.

    But there was some way to get $5 million to McDaniel in Mississippi, although no outside funding for Brat or any of Graham’s challengers.

  23. Kos and the rest are just idiots. The (roughly) same district elected Cantor SEVEN times, plus part of it elected him to the VA House of Delegates twice, but now they hate Joos?

  26. gaining market share for tea party ideas will largely come down to being right in our predictions and honest with our promises, but it isn’t rocket science. Trust is slow to accumulate, anyone who thinks everything can be overturned in a day is as much of a starry eyed idealist as any progressive.

  27. I did not research the precise definition of “re-election” for this post, but we’re both in agreement about the plain wording of Virginia law.

  31. Great Job ignoring all insults from everyone else, and censoring me for replying. You are the problem in the Republican party. Everything I said was true. If you don’t know that, that’s your fault. Mr. moderator. What a joke.

  32. “The Tea Party has to root out incumbents one at a time.”

    The Tea Party needs to root out Democrats and liberals, not “incumbents.”

    Of course, if you want to root out Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, I’d have no problem with it. If you want to stick with your anti-incumbent message, go after them and David Brat (or, more or less likely, the Democrat who defeats him).

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