The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

States Joe Biden Won’t Win

Posted on | September 8, 2020 | 1 Comment

One of the ways the media mislead America is with polls. The old phrase, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” should be amended to include public opinion polls, especially national polls in presidential campaigns. To state the fact as simply as possible, national polls are irrevelant in terms of projecting the final result, because what actually matters is the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but her national margin (about 2.9 million votes) was less than her margin in California alone (about 4.3 million votes). In other words, the massive pro-Clinton advantage in California created a lopsided margin nationwide. Hillary got 8.8 million votes in California, 4.6 million in New York, and 3.1 million votes in Illinois. These three states thus accounted for nearly 25% of Clinton’s total vote (65.9 million). Her combined margin over Trump in these states was 7 million. Her margin of victory in California was about 30 percentage points, 22.5 points in New York, and 17 points in Illinois. If you’re looking at national polls, you see, the horse-race number doesn’t reflect how the Electoral College turns out. It doesn’t matter if a presidential candidate wins Florida by a 1-point margin or a 30-point margin, the winner still gets all the Electoral College votes in Florida.

So the alleged “fact” that Joe Biden leads President Trump by 7.1 points in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls is not only absurd (no serious political observer believes Biden will win by such a landslide margin), but it is also irrelevant. The election will be decided in a comparative handful of “swing” states, and what it is important is to identify the states that actually are up for grabs this year.

Of course, it’s still eight weeks to go until Election Day, we don’t actually know which way the momentum might shift. One campaign or the other could collapse between now and Nov. 3, or events outside the campaigns could shift the race, so it is impossible to predict outcomes. As things stand today, however, you can scratch Iowa from the list of so-called “battleground” states. Iowa went for Obama twice, but it’s Trump Country now, and the Biden campaign isn’t wasting any energy there.

What about Georgia? Because Stacey Abrams came so close two years ago — a “high tide” year for Democrats — some have tried to claim that Georgia is a battleground. Bullshit. The latest poll has Trump leading by 7 points in Georgia, and it probably won’t be that close.

North Carolina? In late July, the RCP average of North Carolina polls had Biden up by nearly 5 points, but it’s now virtually tied and trending toward Trump. I never believed Biden had much chance in North Carolina, and am dubious of those who call it a “battleground.” The Antifa riots have probably hurt Biden badly there, and I’d be surprised if it’s even close. On the other hand, I am worried about Ohio. Biden has led 8 of the last 10 polls there, and although the RCP average for Ohio has Biden leading by less than 3 points (margin of error territory), clearly Trump has a fight on his hands there. This is the one I’ll be watching most closely. Whoever wins Ohio will be president.

What about Florida? I’ve got family there — in a heavily Republican area, full of rich retirees — and Trump was leading Florida in the spring before his numbers took a dip because of COVID-19, but he’s recovered his momentum now. The latest Florida poll has it tied, and the most recent Quinnipiac poll showed Biden had lost 10 points in the span of barely a month. The reasons for that sudden meltdown are almost certainly due to (a) the lousy Democratic convention performance, and (b) the ongoing “mostly peaceful protests.” You know who doesn’t want to hear a lot of angry lectures about “systemic racism” in America? Cubans.

Cubans have a low tolerance for that crap, and they sure as heck don’t want to hear any of your Marxist revolutionary nonsense:

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has seemingly lost his advantage over President Trump in the crucial swing state of Florida, an NBC News/Marist poll released Tuesday found. A lot of that shift seemingly stems from Florida’s Latino voters, who have gone from resoundingly supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to actually tipping in Trump’s favor this time around, the poll showed.
Less than two months before election day, Biden and Trump are tied in Florida with 48 percent support among likely Florida voters. Biden had previously pulled as much as a 13-point lead over Trump in Florida. That dip comes as a majority of Latino respondents say they’re voting for Trump over Biden, 50-46 percent; Latino voters went for Clinton 62-35 in 2016.
A poll from the Miami Herald and Bendixen & Amandi International backed up NBC News’ findings, at least in Miami-Dade County. Biden still has a strong advantage, 55-38 percent, in the heavily Democratic part of the state, the Tuesday poll found. But it’s not the best news considering Clinton won that county by 30 points in 2016 and still lost the state by 1.2 points. In addition, the Miami Herald poll found Trump and Biden are splitting Hispanic voters, 47-46 . . .

Look, I don’t want to call this too early. When you see a sudden shift in polls, as we are witnessing in Florida, it’s best not to trust it automatically. If the shift is real, it will be reflected in more polls during the coming week or two, so the smart thing to do is watch and wait. This time next week, we should have a better idea of where things stand in Florida, but if Trump has truly gained a decisive advantage there — if Florida is now reliably Trump Country — it’s going to be very difficult for Biden to get to 270 Electoral College votes.




 

Category: Election, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Polls

Comments

One Response to “States Joe Biden Won’t Win”

  1. Around the traps. – Dark Brightness
    September 10th, 2020 @ 1:48 am

    […] One of the ways the media mislead America is with polls. The old phrase, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” should be amended to include public opinion polls, especially national polls in presidential campaigns. To state the fact as simply as possible, national polls are irrevelant in terms of projecting the final result, because what actually matters is the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but her national margin (about 2.9 million votes) was less than her margin in California alone (about 4.3 million votes). In other words, the massive pro-Clinton advantage in California created a lopsided margin nationwide. Hillary got 8.8 million votes in California, 4.6 million in New York, and 3.1 million votes in Illinois. These three states thus accounted for nearly 25% of Clinton’s total vote (65.9 million). Her combined margin over Trump in these states was 7 million. Her margin of victory in California was about 30 percentage points, 22.5 points in New York, and 17 points in Illinois. If you’re looking at national polls, you see, the horse-race number doesn’t reflect how the Electoral College turns out. It doesn’t matter if a presidential candidate wins Florida by a 1-point margin or a 30-point margin, the winner still gets all the Electoral College votes in Florida. […]