The first polls close in Kentucky and Indiana at 6 p.m. ET, followed at 7 p.m. ET by Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont. There are certain “bellwether” counties to watch in each of these states, to get an idea of whether a “blue wave” scenario is happening, and just how big such a wave might be. Very few observers expect Republicans to maintain their slender majority in the House of Representatives, but the Senate is a whole ’nother thing.
Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber and, considering what the map looks like, that would require a “wave” big enough to switch several states that Trump won by substantial margins in 2024. Republicans are expected to lose North Carolina (the seat currently held by Thom Tillis), but could neutralize that loss if they can beat Abdul El Sayed in Michigan (the seat currently held by Gary Peters). My hunch — just a hunch — is that Susan Collins will prevail in Maine, where polls close at 8 p.m. ET, but where results will likely be slow to come in.
My office TV is currently tuned to CNN, where they’re citing exit poll numbers that sound very bad for Republicans, but I’ll take that with a grain of salt. Once we start getting actual vote totals, I’ll report those, so refresh this page every half-hour or so.
EXPECT UPDATES . . .
@JohnFBachman Peter Jennings smoked Camel Lights. I know because I bummed one from him in 2001.
— The Patriarch Tree (@PatriarchTree) November 3, 2026