And You Thought You Were Bummed Out

Struggling with feelings of despair? Count your blessings:

Rick Perry’s shaky debate performances have hurt his poll numbers and, apparently, the market for quickie books about the Texas governor. “I had a deal,” grouses . . . reporter R.G. Ratcliffe, “and Perry blew it.” I Love You Phillip Morris author Steve McVicker says interest in his proposed Perry book peaked in August, right around the time Perry held his giant prayer rally at Reliant Stadium in Houston, but now things are in “a state of flux.”

More bummers for would-be Perry biographers:

It may be hard to remember, but Rick Perry’s candidacy once seemed very promising to a lot of people, and book publishers jumped aboard the handsome cowboy/Bush II bandwagon — only to get off the second that everything got derailed. Unsurprisingly, this left a few writers penning “Perry might be our next president”-timed books in the lurch, and today, one of those authors, a Democrat, Jason Stanford, humorously lamented in the Texas Tribune about his turn of fortunes, and why he obviously feels conflicted. . . .
“He’s run such a bad campaign that we lost our book deal. …. People are reading Adios, Mofo and enjoying it, but its ultimate prospects are tied to Perry’s fortunes. That is, they stink. It’s selling well on Kindle, the e-book version of your band being big in Belgium. If Perry makes a comeback in Iowa, Adios, Mofo will be a different story, putting this Democrat in the horrible position of profiting from his potential success.”

Be thankful you didn’t jump on that bandwagon. And please shop our Amazon’s “Black Friday Deals Week” specials — great bargains for you, a small commission for me, a happy holiday to all.

Aw, C’mon, Governor Perry

by Smitty

This is either a result of (a) incomplete analysis, or (b) a cheap populist appeal:

“Any congressman or senator that uses their insider knowledge to profit in the stock market ought to be sent to jail—period,” said Mr. Perry, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination.

This sounds swell, but is going to hit a major brain freeze right around Article 1, Section 5:

Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behavior, and, with the Concurrence of two-thirds, expel a Member.

What I think would be effective, if I may utter the dread words “Constitutional Amendment” is along the lines of:

Every Congress, in the 18th month thereof, shall require a confidence vote by at least two thirds of the legislatures of the States. Failure to meet this confidence threshold shall result in no member of that Congress being allowed to retain their seat after that seat is next up for election.

I call this the “Kill Switch” Amendment. It’s not an individual term limit, but rather a global one. Chemotherapy, sadly, wipes out a few good cells with the bad. But don’t let your love of good tissue trick you into tolerating cancer. The Paul Ryans and Allen Wests are going to get themselves re-elected. If the Congress fails its confidence vote, they can either run for a Senate seat, state office, or just take a two-year sabbatical.

Example reasons for amputating a Congress en masse could include, but are not limited to:

  • Failure to balance the budget.
  • Failure to limit the federal government to the enumerated powers of the Constitution
  • Failure to check the Executive branch.
  • Failure to do more than insult the notion adhering to ethics.
  • Failure to read legislation prior to voting on it.
  • Failure to adhere to the Oath of Office.

I’m not going to say I had Princess Pelosi in mind when I wrote that list.

The argument that “government is too complex; we need to retain experience” is mostly specious. When someone says it’s too complex, the follow-up question is why we haver permitted the cancer of complexity to overtake matters. For example, in doing the homework for the simple act of retaining a nanny for The World’s Youngest Blogger, I have two words for the IRS, the second of which is “you”. The only reason that Doing The Right Thing with respect to taxation resembles a course in Differential Equations is that we have allowed to many “experts” to obfuscate matters.

The notion of a Kill Switch has the virtue of brutal simplicity. Possibly there would be a way to rig the idea; but would you vote for somebody willing to change their name legally just to get into office?

I predict that, with enough fresh blood and reduced incumbency, the Congress could move closer to serving the people, and resemble less an obnoxious aristocracy. You see that in the relatively less corrupt military; when the people are shifted around often enough, the focus moves more to accomplishing the mission. Sure, people end up making themselves look good, but that remains more a by-product of getting things done. Arguably, there is some loss to the size of mission scope brought on by lack of experience. However, I’m contending here that less scope is better. Or did you think ObamaCare was a keen idea?

Now, the idea of judicial term limits may be worth exploring. And one can admire the way Rick is willing to stir the pot, as with telling the truth about Socialist Security. Meanwhile, Governor Perry, can you please quit with the emotionally nifty appeals that are not going to mean much in the real world?

Update: linked at Dustbury.

Perry Aides Dissing Gingrich Campaign?

Interesting news:

A new book claims Newt Gingrich spent $1 million on jewelry to “buy off” his reluctant wife and stop her objecting to his running for president.
“Election 2012: The Battle Begins,” by reporters Tom Bevan and Carl Cannon, follows up on previous reports about Gingrich’s unpaid $500,000 charge account at Tiffany’s and his Greek cruise with his [third] wife, Callista.
Gingrich’s staff denied the latest account, which details the GOP hopeful’s extravagant spending while he professes to be a fiscal conservative.
Unidentified sources in the book are believed to be former Gingrich aides, many of whom now work for rival Rick Perry.

A hit-job on a GOP candidate blamed on Team Perry? I’m shocked.

Will Perry Be Blamed for Cain Scandal?

Sunday’s original widespread suspicion that the Rick Perry campaign was responsible for the “oppo” hit at Politico appears to be shared by many others, including the target himself:

In the summer of 2003, Cain recalls briefing Anderson—his general campaign consultant at the time—that sexual harassment claims were brought against him while he was chairman of the National Restaurant Association from 1996 to 1999.
“I told my wife about this in 1999 and I’ve got nothing to hide,” Cain told me Wednesday. “When I sat down with my general campaign consultant Kurt Anderson in a private room in our campaign offices in 2003 we discussed opposition research on me. It was a typical campaign conversation. I told him that there was only one case, one set of charges, one woman while I was at the National Restaurant Association. Those charges were baseless, but I thought he needed to know about them. I don’t recall anyone else being in the room when I told him.” …
Aside from knowing about the alleged sexual harassment accusations, Cain campaign officials point to the timing of Anderson’s hiring by Perry as evidence of his involvement. The campaign announced Anderson’s role on October 24, just a week before Politico broke the story.

Related headlines:

Cain Faults Perry as More Allegations Emerge
— New York Times

Cain accuses former adviser Curt Anderson
— Politico

Cain Camp Accuses Perry Campaign
of Leaking Sexual Harassment Claims

— Fox News

Perry Backer Says He Witnessed Cain
Harassment, Cain Blames Perry Staffer

— Business Insider

Perry Pollster Worked for Restaurant
Association at Time of Cain Allegations

— The Weekly Standard

Regarding Herman Cain: It’s Not
Racism. It’s Opposition Research.

— Erick Erickson, Red State

In that last item Erickson is essentially defending his candidate, saying that even if this was an oppo job by his buddies on Team Perry, Republican voters should not blame his buddies for doing it. But this is still merely a hypothetical. We have only suspicion at this point, and even if there is evidence that appears to support that suspicion, “evidence” is not a synonym for “proof.” Republican voters, of course, may not care to quibble over such fine distinctions. And if suspicions toward the Perry campaign take root . . .

“Howdy. Thank You, Erick.”

Meanwhile, via Hot Air, we get a weird story from Iowa talk radio host Steve Deace, who remarks on “awkward/inappropriate things he’s said to two females on my staff” and then says:

Especially since I have very talented employees that happen to be women. I go out of my way to treat them like my sisters. For example, I wouldn’t tell them or any other woman I am not married to nor related to how pretty she is.

Hold on a minute there: It is now “inappropriate” — perhaps even career-destroying harassment — for a married man to compliment a woman on her looks? According to conservatives?

Strom Thurmond never would have survived in 21st century GOP politics.

Now, as I keep reminding readers, we don’t yet know the names of Cain’s accusers and haven’t heard their accusations directly. We therefore are unable to judge the credibility of the charges.

However, it strikes me that Deace’s testimony about Cain’s allegedly “inappropriate” remarks might actually be viewed as exculpatory. That is to say, no reasonable person could possibly believe that Cain was “hitting on” Deace’s female staffers, right? Yet this incident might suggest that Cain — like the late Strom, like me, like many other old-fashioned men from the South — considers flirtatious flattery and jocular banter an innocent amusement.

Coming from a time and place where every diner waitress called you “honey” or “sugar,” and where extravagant compliments were the routine currency of social life, I am probably more sympathetic to the cultural defense of such behavior than the average Iowan would be. The many people who know Herman and praise him as an amiable gentleman perhaps see his down-to-earth jocularity as charming, whereas others might see it differently.

There is of course a line, recognized even among Southerners, between harmless flirtatiousness and “hitting on” someone, and occasional misunderstandings used to be settled the old-fashioned way. When I was about 21, I got sucker-punched by a college buddy who did not appreciate the cleverness of a double-entendre made in reference to his girlfriend (whom I’d known before she ever met him). And my extroverted wackiness may make others feel “awkward.”

At any rate, I think the lovely and charming Gail Collins shares my basic viewpoint of the allegations to date:

Sexual harassment is a matter so serious that I’m not prepared to prejudge anybody, including the woman who accepted money in return for leaving the organization, until I have a pretty fair factual understanding of what actually happened.  If you feel you have no power, that everybody with clout is aligned against you, and the situation makes keeping your job untenable, you might feel compelled to just get out of there with whatever compensation is available to tide you over. On the other side, if none of Cain’s accusers speak up in public, it’s hard to judge him guilty.

So far, we have a sex scandal with no actual sex and only vague descriptions of accusations made by unnamed women. Cain might be wholly guilty or mostly innocent, and there is simply no way yet to judge. It wouldn’t want to see the women targeted by some kind of James Carville “nuts and sluts” attack, but neither can Cain be condemned on the basis of anonymous accusations.

 



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RECENTLY:

Ouch! New Poll Shows Perry at 7% in Iowa

The headline on the Des Moines Register story is “Herman Cain, Mitt Romney lead new Iowa Poll,” but when you break down the numbers, the really shocking result is farther down:

Herman Cain …………………. 23%
Mitt Romney ………………….. 22%
Ron Paul ……………………….. 13%
Michele Bachmann ………….. 8%
Rick Perry ………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………. 7%
Rick Santorum …………………. 5%
Jon Huntsman …………………. 1%

Perry tied for fifth place? This poll was taken Oct. 23-26 (Sunday through Wednesday), entirely after the Oct. 18 Vegas debate, during a period when the media were heavily reporting Perry’s new tax plan and …

Fifth place? Single digits? Wedged between Bachmann and Santorum?

Perry put $174,000 into a TV ad campaign that started Tuesday in Iowa. As far as I know, Perry is the only candidate now running TV ads in Iowa, so he’s likely to see his numbers rise between now and mid-November. We’re still 65 days from the Iowa caucuses, but Perry’s got a lot of ground to make up if he’s going to avoid an embarrassment.

And the really scary thing: Romney wasn’t supposed to be a player in Iowa, and yet he’s neck-and-neck for the lead. Romney is almost certain to win New Hampshire. If he also wins Iowa . . . dude, game over.

Cain Leads New Ohio Poll; Close to Romney in Nevada; Perry Fading Away

The big headline today is the Ohio poll by Quinnipiac:

Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain has jumped to the front of the line among GOP presidential contenders with 28 percent support among Ohio Republicans. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 23 percent, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry is almost at the bottom of the pile with 4 percent.

The poll was conducted Oct. 17-23 — partly before the Oct. 18 Vegas debate, partly after — and the complete numbers are:

Herman Cain ……………….. 28%
Mitt Romney ……………….. 23%
Ron Paul ……………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich ……………… 7%
Rick Perry …………………… 4%
Michele Bachmann ………. 4%
Jon Huntsman …………….. 2%
Rick Santorum …………….. 1%

Of course, that’s kind of irrelevant, because Ohio won’t have its primary until June, but there’s also a new Nevada poll by Public Policy Polling:

Mitt Romney ……………….. 29%
Herman Cain ……………….. 28%
Newt Gingrich ……………… 15%
Ron Paul ……………………… 7%
Rick Perry …………………… 6%
Michele Bachmann ………. 3%
Jon Huntsman …………….. 2%
Rick Santorum …………….. 2%

There’s just no escaping the point: Perry has become a second-tier candidate. Although his RCP national average is still 11.9%, Perry has been in single digits in two recent national polls — Rasmussen and CBS/NYT — and the latter was taken entirely after the Vegas debate. Which is why you’re starting to see headlines like this:

Can Rick Perry save his campaign?
— CBS News

You can do a lot with $15 million, I suppose. Like this Iowa ad:

Maybe he should try puffing a cigarette in his ads.


Herman Cain Builds Lead Over Romney, Rick Perry 5th in New CBS/NYT Poll

The big news? This poll was taken Oct. 19-24, entirely after last week’s Vegas debate (Perry’s best performance to date) and covers the period during which the abortion controversy was supposedly (if you believe Karl Rove) destroying the viability of the Cain campaign:

Herman Cain ………………. 25%
Mitt Romney ………………. 21%
Newt Gingrich …………….. 10%
Ron Paul ……………………… 8%
Rich Perry ……………………. 6%
Michele Bachmann ………. 2%
Rick Santorum ……………… 1%
Jon Hunstman ……………… 1%

Earlier today, I heard Megyn Kelly discuss this poll on Fox and she felt obliged to point out that Cain and Romney are actually in a statistical tie because of the 4% margin of error. Right: And Rick Perry is in a statistical tie with Michele Bachmann, with Jon Huntsman close behind.

Perry’s effort to revive his campaign has already encountered difficulties. Three Republican governors — Terry Brandstad of Iowa, Bob McDonnell of Virginia and Haley Barbour of Mississippi — are criticizing Rick Perry for playing footsie with Birthers.

It’s a good day to be the Future Ambassador to Vanuatu.

‘Two Nationally Known GOP Insiders’

Thus does Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post describe Nelson Warfield and Curt Anderson, who have been brought aboard Team Perry in a campaign overhaul. Another money quote:

Perry’s original staff seemed not to appreciate that running for president was a fundamentally different task than running for reelection in a deep red state.

No duh. I noticed Rubin’s item because she cited my mockery of Anderson’s faux-populist rhetoric in August. Monday’s headlines about the attempt to restart the Perry bandwagon:

Perry shuffles campaign team
— Texas Monthly

Rick Perry ads start Tuesday in Iowa
— Politico

You could read those articles, or you could look at the latest polls:

Iowa …………………. Perry 6% (6th Place)
New Hampshire … Perry 2% (7th Place)
South Carolina ….. Perry 12% (3rd Place)
Florida ……………… Perry 3% (4th Place)
Nevada ……………… Perry 5% (5th Place)

Keep in mind that on Sept. 13, Perry led the Real Clear Politics national poll average with 31.8% — a 12-point lead over Mitt Romney. Can the Perry bubble be re-inflated? I dunno. You can buy a lot with $15 million, and even the MSM are finally noticing that Herman Cain’s campaign lacks anything remotely resembling an effective “ground game” in the early states. (But don’t get me started on that.)

So let’s suppose a mini-revival for Perry. Can he recover from single-digit poll numbers in so many early states? I don’t say that’s impossible, but I remind you of my Aug. 9 warning:

What I fear will happen is that Perry will spend several months sucking up media oxygen and burning through GOP donor cash, only to collapse early next year. This will have the effect of suffocating other conservative candidates, and thereby lead to … Romney 2012.

“Howdy. Thank you, Erick.”