The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Nate Silver Asks: Whose Shark Is This, and Why Do I Feel a Need to Jump It?

Posted on | October 19, 2012 | 35 Comments

It seems so long ago, but it was only late September, when Jonathan Chait dismissed as “poll denialists” those who expressed skepticism about the validity of polls showing Barack Obama sailing to an easy victory in Ohio and elsewhere. We were, said Chait, “totally crazy” for questioning the samples of these polls.

Three weeks later, Romney having zoomed upward in the polls, now it is the turn of liberals to complain, and we find that the previously respectable Nate Silver of the New York Times is now a poll denialist, complaining that the Gallup national tracking poll that showed Romney leading by 7 points is “deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.”

Whatever.

We’re now 18 days away from Election Day, and we’ll know soon enough whether Gallup or other polls are accurate. Is it likely that Romney will win the popular vote by a 7-point margin? I dunno. Probably not. This would be a landslide of historical proportions.

On the other hand, without going into Nate’s entire argument, I’ll say this: Polls are a lagging indicator. By the time a decisive shift begins to appear in the polls, the factors that caused the shift are usually several days or even weeks in the past. Instapundit wishes to make clear that he did not coin the term “preference cascade,” but if this is what we’ve been watching for the past three weeks . . .

Well, it is what it is. Donald Douglas says “wonder boy Nate Silver’s practically blown a gasket over the latest Gallup tracking numbers,” but the real question is, “Was Nate every really a wonder boy?” Or is it possible that, like Obama, he was overrated all along?

I’d make more fun of Nate’s newfound skepticism, except that for all I know, he’s right. This is my luxury: I’m a mere journalist, with a blog, and nobody’s paying me to be the Omniscient Expert, so I don’t have to pretend to know everything. Lucky me.

Category: Election 2012, Polls

LIVE AT FIVE: 10.19.12

Posted on | October 19, 2012 | 10 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho


TOP NEWS
Candidates Trade Jokes Instead Of Accusations At Al Smith Dinner

Yukking it up under ecclesiastical supervision

A welcome break in the rancor?

Boy Scout Pervert List Released
(This space reserved for the inevitable editorial using this to justify forcing the BSA to change its policies to allow more of the same)

Family Of Bomber Wannabee Shocked At His Arrest
Describe would-be jihadi as peaceful, quiet boy



POLITICS
No Surrender: Congressional Republicans Vow No Tax Hikes Even If Obama Re-Elected

Veto threats are not negotiation, Mr. President

President thinks victory will force GOP to compromise, aide says think again
Related: Romney campaign slams Obama for “fiscal cliff” veto threat, failure to meet with Boehner


Second Circuit Court Of Appeals Holds Defense Of Marriage Act Unconstitutional

Ann Romney Schools Whoopi Goldberg On Mormons And The Military

Akin, McCaskill Square Off In Debate

Paul Ryan: We Agree With Bill Clinton, The Economy’s Not Fixed

Obama Tells Jon Stewart Deaths At Benghazi “Not Optimal”

FBI Arrests Second Suspect In Bomb Plot Against NY Fed



THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Crude Oil Mixed In Asian Trade; NYMEX $92.01, Brent $112.48
Stocks Finish Lower After Google’s Earnings Leak
Sprint Takes Control Of Clearwire
Chinese Auto Parts Maker Vows To Top Johnson Controls Bid For Bankrupt A123 Systems
Macy’s Targets Millenials With New Brands
GM To Hire 3000 Workers From HP, End Outsourcing Of IT
Unemployment Applications Spike to 388K Due To “Technical Factors”
Southwest Airlines Posts Small Profit After Weak September
Google Launches $249 Chrombeook
SAP Launches Cloud Platform Built On Hana
Apple Gives Super iPhone Hacker Comex The Boot
AOL Re-Imagines E-Mail With Alto Web Client



SPORTS
Well-Armed Tigers Sweep Yankees, Win American League Pennant

Tigers skipper Jim Leyland takes the ball from starter Max Scherzer

Tigers blitz Yankees 8-1; Delmon Young voted ALCS MVP


A-Rod’s Season, Possibly His Yankees Career, Ends With a Whimper

Wainwright Frustrates Giants As Cardinals Cruise To Game 4 Win

49ers Beat Seahawks In Battle For First

NHL Dismisses Union’s Counteroffers

Ryan Mulls Using Tebow At Running Back

Hamlin Crashes During Testing At Kansas Speedway

Pakistan Perfectly Safe For Cricket, Says Kallicharran

Nationals Would Like To Thank You For Your Fandom, But You Can’t Have Your $4 Back



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS
Drew Lachey Whines About Getting Beaten By Bristol Palin

Drew Lachey and Bristol Palin

Former 98 Degrees crooner pitches a fit backstage after being eliminated October 9

Paul Rodriguez Endorses Romney, Cuts Spanish-Language Ad

Sylvia Kristel Dies, 60; Starred In “Emmanuelle” Movies

Flavor Flav Accused Of Double-Knife Rampage Before Arrest

Bravo Wants Jill Zarin To Come Back To “Real Housewives Of New York”

“Beyonce” Rooms For Affluent New Moms At Lenox Hill Putting Newborns At Risk, Nurses Say

Two-Time Nominee Joaquin Phoenix Dismisses Oscars As “Bullshit”

Miley Cyrus Can’t Get Enough Of Honey Boo Boo



FOREIGNERS
Assad Forces Try To Reverse Rebel Gains With Air Power
East China Sea Tension As PRC Set For Naval Exercises
EU Leaders Clash On Fiscal Unity As Greeks Riot Against Austerity
Could Malala Yousafzai’s Shooting Be The Turning Point For Pakistan?
Australia, ROK, Three Other Nations Elected To Temporary Seats On UNSC
Putin Backs Ban On Muslim Headscarves In Schools
Hamid Karzai Rules Out Foreigners On Elections Commission
Libya Attack Suspect Scoffs At US In Plain Sight



BLOGS & STUFF
WyBlog: Obama’s “Recovery” Lasts All Of One Week As Initial Unemployment Claims Spike
American Power: Nate Silver Blows Gasket As Gallup Shows Romney Pulling Away
Dinesh D’Souza: I Am Not Having An Affair
Allahpundit: Romney Campaign Thinking About Shifting Money From NC to Bluish MI, PA, WI?
Weasel Zippers: Obama On Benghazi – “When Four Americans Get Killed, It’s Not Optimal”
Lonely Conservative: Another Left-Leaning Newspaper Endorses Romney
Weekly Standard Blog: Bill Clinton Says, “I Thought Obama Was Going To Cry”
Protein Wisdom: It’s Time To Do Away With Congress, And Even The President
Power Line: Romney Up By 4 In Pennsylvania?
Pirate’s Cove: Joe Biden Wonders How Many Have Served In Iran
Mark Levin: I Have No Question Obama Uses Binders Or The Equivalent Too
Atlas Shrugs: Virginia Teacher Charged With Assault After Student’s Hand Cut During Forced Islamic Hand Sign Drill
American Thinker: Obama, Oy Vey! American Jews Finally Have Had Enough
Jammie Wearing Fools: Democrat Hate Speech Alert – Rep. Keith Ellison Calls GOP Opponent “Lowlife Scumbag”, “Gutter Dweller”


Remember, links for the FMJRA are due by midnight tonight!

Category: Live at Five

Those Wanting Obama Impeached Should Understand. . .

Posted on | October 18, 2012 | 17 Comments

by Smitty

I knew as I watched the debate that the Benghazi question was the climax. This ad compiles the details of the Presidential prevarication nicely:

What Romney did there was prosecute the Benghazi case for Stevens, Smith, Doherty and Woods. And he did it in the court of public opinion. And he was halted in his effort by a lousy sycophant of a moderator.

That’s all you’re going to get. There is no way under the sun, even if Dingy Harry were removed, that the precedent for turning the end of a Presidency into a legal probe is going to happen. You don’t want that precedent. Even for #OccupyResoluteDesk, who is hopefully the most atrocious piece of work this country ever suffers.

So, enjoy that ~20 seconds, and keep that in mind in just over a fortnight, when you get to cast your portion of the judgement on this sad little tool.

via Breitbart

Category: Barack Obama

#ObamaGoogleHistory What Is My Current Abuse Level At http://theothermccain.com

Posted on | October 18, 2012 | 6 Comments

by Smitty

This hash tag game had its origins in this:

Slightly strange, this game. I’ve had a lot of love for this tweet:

Yet not so much for this one:

And who doesn’t dig a Harry Reid riff?

Category: Barack Obama, humor

#Winning: Va. Tech College Republicans

Posted on | October 18, 2012 | 10 Comments

Danielle Saul is youth coordinator for the George Allen campaign. When I saw her in Charlottesville last night, Dani said she was on her way to Blacksburg where tonight Allen will debate Democrat candidate What’s-His-Name on the campus of Virginia Tech University. She said something about putting up signs. I thought nothing more about it until today when the Roanoke Times  posted this:

This morning Virginia Tech officials ordered the George Allen for Senate campaign to remove all but 100 of the about 1,000 signs erected overnight in grassy areas in front of Squires Student Center.
Allen and Democratic challenger Tim Kaine will hold their final live debate tonight in Squires.
Permission had previously been granted for both campaigns to erect signs at Squires, Tech spokesman Larry Hincker said. . . .
But officials didn’t think to mandate a limit on the number of signs each campaign could erect. This morning every square inch of the designated area was covered in signs for the Allen campaign.

Click here to see the photo. Attagirl, Dani.

 

Category: Election 2012, Virginia

GALLUP: ROMNEY 52, OBAMA 45 — Let the Great 2012 Liberal Freak-Out Begin!

Posted on | October 18, 2012 | 22 Comments

They convinced themselves that Obama “won” Tuesday’s debate, but Romney actually gains in the first Gallup national tracking poll with post-debate reaction? Oh, boy.

UPDATE: Ace explains what happened:

 The debate was not a victory for Obama. It was a confirmation of Romney’s acceptability, plausibility, and fitness for office.

Yesterday, Sully admitted he had been “on the ledge”:

Guess what?

UPDATE II: Ed Morrissey points out that these latest numbers indicate that neither of the past two debates helped Obama among likely voters.

 




 

RECENTLY:

Category: Ace of Spades, Andrew Sullivan, Barack Obama, Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Polls

For What It’s Worth

Posted on | October 18, 2012 | 8 Comments

— by Wombat-socho


Maetenloch over at AOSHQ had this list of top-ranked conservative websites, courtesy of Doug Ross at DirectorBlue who did the grunt work of sorting through Alexa to figure out who’s hot and who’s not.


The good news is that we’re hot: #96 on the list, just a few spots behind Dan Riehl (#93) and Ann Coulter (#91). There’s some weird stuff on the list that I’m not sure qualifies as “conservative”, strictly speaking, including the Volokh Conspiracy (#97) and the various Gannett military papers such as the Army Times, but it’s not my list so I don’t get to say who’s in and who’s out.


No Buffalo Springfield link, much less video. I hate that song.

Category: Blogging

Virginia Town’s Airport Is Collateral Damage in Obama’s ‘War on Coal’

Posted on | October 18, 2012 | 19 Comments

“The front page of Thursday’s Washington Times features a story about how the Obama administration’s ‘war on coal’ has thwarted plans by the tiny Appalachian town of Grundy to expand its airport. The hostile regulatory climate imposed by the president’s environmental agenda has been a steady theme of Romney’s stump speeches. The coal issue also resonates in Ohio, as well as Pennsylvania, which RCP likewise counts as a battleground state. Coal-industry advocates in Grundy are planning a rally Sunday, and their story could help dramatize the economic costs of the administration’s anti-coal policies.”
— Robert Stacy McCain, “Obama’s Hope Fades in Virginia,” The American Spectator, Oct. 18, 2012

The population of Grundy, Virginia, is 1,105. It is the county seat of Buchanan County, population 23,581, where the median household income is $29,183, far below the U.S. median average of $51,914. This community, about 10 miles from the Kentucky border and 15 miles from the West Virginia state line, is quite obviously in need of economic growth — so why is the Obama administration standing in the way?

Officials from two Southwestern Virginia counties say a project vital to the area’s economic development has been held up for years because of a dispute with federal regulators over what is an airport and what is a coal mine.
Local leaders say the three-year battle with the U.S. Office of Surface Mining over plans to extend the runway at Grundy Municipal Airport has cost taxpayers in this poverty-stricken corner of Appalachia millions of dollars in lost opportunities, and a list of regulatory hurdles remains before construction can even begin.
“We were attempting to permit this project as an airport project, not a coal-mining project,” said state Sen. Phillip P. Puckett, a Democrat from Lebanon who has been involved for three years with the effort to lengthen the runway from 2,200 feet to more than 5,000 feet — the length needed to comply with insurance standards for corporate jets. The holdup: Federal regulators have refused to allow the runway project to go forward without a mining permit because of the coal deposits below the land that will be dug up during construction.
“That’s where the permitting process got caught up — in determining whether it was an airport project or a mining project, by the Office of Surface Mining in Washington,” Mr. Puckett said. “We’ve tried to resolve that with them for the last couple of years. We’ve had very little success.”
Regulators contend that a mining permit is needed because local authorities plan to sell the coal dug up in extending the runway to help finance the overall project. . . .

Read the whole thing at the Washington Times. People everywhere should be outraged by this: A poor Appalachian town’s best prospect for promoting economic development held up for three years because the radical environmentalists appointed by President Obama are determined to destroy the coal industry. (See my Oct. 8 column, “Counting on Coal Country,” for more background on Obama’s “war on coal.”)

The federal Office of Surface Mining might as well be re-named the Office of Abolishing Surface Mining under Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar who, as Michelle Malkin has detailed at length, is a top enforcer of Obama’s environmental agenda.

Grundy is 53 miles from I-81, but it’s a winding two-lane mountain road so it takes an hour and a half to drive it, which tends to discourage potential business investors from visiting the town. If the town could extend its airport runway, executives could fly in and out, and light commercial aviation might even help promote tourism. (“Ski Grundy,” perhaps?) But no — the project would involve coal mining, and the Fanatic-in-Chief at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is beholden to tree-hugging freaks, so he cheerfuly pisses away millions of taxpayer dollars on bankrupt “green energy” boondoggles, while his bureaucrats crush hope for the people of Grundy.

In the War on Coal – It’s Grundy vs. Obama
— Matt Vespa, Hot Air Greenroom

Why Does Obama Hate Coal Miners And Appalachia?
— The Lonely Conservative

Grundy will have a rally Sunday to show “support for American coal jobs and the people who work in our industry.”

If the Romney campaign would grab hold of this issue, they could make America understand how Obama’s “war on coal” is hurting real people and hindering economic recovery.

 


Category: Barack Obama, Environmentalism, Virginia
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