The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

@Nigel_Farage “This Battle Of Bureaucracy Verses Democracy”

Posted on | October 15, 2012 | 1 Comment

by Smitty

“I never stab anybody in the back. I always stab in the front.”

Keep your pimp hand strong, Nigel!

via American Power

Category: Uncategorized

Did You Say ‘Preference Cascade’?

Posted on | October 15, 2012 | 22 Comments

“One might have thought that the 2010 mid-term elections . . . would have convinced the Left that they had miscalculated. Instead, they placed their confidence in Obama’s ability to navigate the new environment . . .
“Everything seemed to be proceeding in accordance with those beliefs until Romney dismantled Obama in Wednesday’s debate — a psychological shock that has unhinged the Left, causing them to begin lashing out furiously and rather erratically at anyone who suggests that the dam has broken and that the ‘preference cascade’ may doom Obama to defeat in November.”
— Robert Stacy McCain, Oct. 6

“[I]t is possible to imagine a scenario where Mitt Romney comes into the Oct. 16 debate sitting on a 4-point lead in the national polls with just three weeks to go before Election Day. And if I can envision such a scenario, you know that Democrats must be imagining the same possibility with a sense of Fear and Loathing.”
— Robert Stacy McCain, Oct. 7

As a great man once repeatedly said, “Don’t get cocky,” but there are good reasons for Republicans to be optimistic with 22 days remaining in the 2012 campaign. Ed Driscoll has previously invoked the phrase “preference cascade” to describe what we may see if Americans wake up to the reality of the SCOAMF’s incompetence. And today Ed Morrissey employs the same phrase:

I don’t think that Obama has lost the election yet, but there is only three weeks to go now. This is when preference cascades begin to materialize, and usually away from the incumbent, who has had nearly four years to make the case for re-election.

Exactly. While defeating an incumbent president is always an against-the-odds project, history would suggest that (a) the debates would be a decisive factor, and (b) the shift toward the challenger wouldn’t happen until fairly late in the campaign.

If this is what we’re seeing now, then Obama’s poll surge in September — on Sept. 29, he led the Real Clear Politics average of national polls by 4.3 points — was in fact a mirage. Whether or not those of us whom Jonathan Chait called “poll denialists” were right about the skewed samples, Obama’s poll lead prior to the first debate was actually an illusion that did not take into account the underlying reality of (a) Obama’s failed policies and (b) his inability to defend those policies when challenged by Romney outside the media filter.

So far, only one poll (Pew) has shown Romney leading by 4 points nationally, and Romney’s biggest RCP lead was 1.3 points on Saturday, but the latest Gallup tracking poll has Mitt leading 49-47, and if Obama doesn’t score a clear win Tuesday, the whole thing may shift toward an outright Romney landslide.

The RCP Electoral College map currently has the race at Obama 201 and Romney 191, with Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan and Pennsylvania in the “toss-up” category. By this point in 2008, John McCain’s campaign was in meltdown mode and had already pulled out of Michigan. For Romney to win any of those four states would almost certainly be decisive: If Mitt wins Michigan he won’t lose Ohio, and if Pennsylvania is even competitive in the final week of the campaign, Romney could win as many as 300 of 538 Electoral College votes.

What will happen in Tuesday’s debate? Both campaigns are “working the refs” with CNN’s Candy Crowley as moderator, Michelle Malkin reminds us of “plant” infestations at town-hall debates and Noel Sheppard quotes Ed Hart: “We will know in the fullness of time.”

Keep watching the slo-mo walkback by Nate Silver, whose Incredible Mystical Forecasting Model™ has now raised Romney’s odds to a precisely calculated 36.7% after having him at 12.9% Oct. 4.

UPDATE: The Insta-Driscol-lanche! Thanks, Ed.
 




 

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Category: Ed Driscoll, Ed Morrissey, Election 2012, Instapundit, Polls

Say Hello to ‘Honest Joe’

Posted on | October 15, 2012 | 4 Comments

Doug Powers highlights this new ad from the Republican Party:

Headline from Mytheos Holt at The Blaze:

EVEN MARTHA RADDATZ THINKS
JOE BIDEN’S PERFORMANCE WAS ‘TOO BIG’

Category: Election 2012, Joe Biden

Does This Explain Something?
UPDATE: What a Cover-Up Looks Like

Posted on | October 15, 2012 | 11 Comments

Why is Obama still leading Mitt Romney in Ohio, but trailing in Florida? This puzzle might be explained by the early blitz of attack ads the Obama campaign laid down against Romney in Ohio back in May and June, which created a sort of “opinion deficit” that Romney has had to try to make up during the past four months.

Yet Obama also hit Mitt early in Florida, and Romney has bounced back pretty strong there in the past two weeks.

Is it Libya? And is it possible that the deadly Bungle in Benghazi has raised concerns about the administration’s Middle East policy among a key constituency in Florida? A friend on Twitter called attention to an article by my American Spectator colleague Jay Homnick:

MIAMI — The Jewish outreach of the Romney campaign leaves a great deal to be desired, about which more on another day. One good thing this wing of the overall effort has been doing is involving Ambassador John Bolton in presenting to Jewish groups. His powerful pro-Israel record and reputation make his name a good draw in the circles of the more knowledgeable Jewish voters. It does not hurt that he has astonishing breadth of knowledge, pristine clarity of thought, and crystalline clarity of expression.
Sunday night he appeared here in Miami at a synagogue bordering the two communities of Surfside and Bal Harbor. The biggest concentrations of Jews in the Miami area are not near that spot, but its equidistance from Miami Beach and North Miami Beach situate it perfectly for such events.
The room was packed to the rafters, and there were no hecklers or provocateurs. The crowd listened raptly and applauded lustily. It is difficult to extrapolate from this to voting patterns on Election Day, but this much was clear: there is a strong Romney-Ryan contingent among both the religious and secular Jews of Florida. . . .

Go read the whole thing. And while we’re at it, remember during last week’s debate, when Joe Biden laughed while Paul Ryan talked about the seriousness of the Iranian nuclear threat?

Biden’s dismissive attitude toward the danger of a nuclear Iran, accusing Republicans of reckless warmongering for taking that threat seriously — how did that play with Jewish voters? Biden’s bulldozing aggression against Ryan may have cheered up demoralized Democrats, but the unseriousness of Biden’s attitude hurt Democrats among undecided voters. Jim Geraghty examines a poll that found the Republicans gained a 3-to-1 advantage from last week’s debate.

But why trust the polls, when we’ve got the word of the Lord?

“And I will make of thee a great nation, and I will bless thee, and make thy name great; and thou shalt be a blessing: And I will bless them that bless thee, and curse him that curseth thee . . .”

You never want to get on the wrong side of a thing like that.

UPDATE: The big problem with the scandal now becoming known as “BenghaziGate” is that the Obama administration evidently decided to tell The Big Lie from the start, and so many officials repeated that lie so often that, once it became obvious they were lying, coming up with a plausible new lie was difficult. Ultimately, however, their problem is not their shifting lies, but rather the ugly truth of the administration’s failure. Even such a master of deceit as David Axelrod can’t hide from the facts:

Q. How soon after the attack did the President meet with the National Security Council, with people from state, with people from the…, the Director of National Intelligence, with all of the various people to try to sort out what happened in Benghazi?
A. Look. We are sorting out what happened there. Understand that the President the day after the attack called it an act of terror and charged everyone with responsibility for getting to the bottom of what happened. . . .
Q. Yes, the president made a statement and then he went to a fundraiser in Nevada. Question: Before he went to the fundraiser in Nevada, did he meet with his National Security Council to try to sort out the shifting stories. Because State says they never said it was a spontaneous demonstration; Intel, you are quite right, did. Did he meet with the National Security Council before he went campaigning in Nevada?
A. Chris, I assure you that the president was in contact with all those who had information and responsibility in the national security chain about this incident.

Via Memeorandum.

 

 

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Category: Barack Obama, Debates, Election 2012, Florida, Israel, Joe Biden, Libya, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan

Axelrod: Did Your Parents Believe Your Malarkey?

Posted on | October 15, 2012 | 9 Comments

by Smitty

I don’t know if it’s possible for me to assign a figure of merit to the veracity of Axelrod’s statements. He’s basically Joe Biden with a little less hyena grin:

In three weeks, this country needs to retire Obama and this sad little Commie parasite.

More at Powerline.

via RNCResearch

Category: Democrats

LIVE AT FIVE: 10.15.12

Posted on | October 15, 2012 | 4 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho


TOP NEWS
Arlen Specter Dies, 82

Arlen Specter, 1930-2012, RIP

“Snarlin’ Arlen” felled by complications of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma

Norodom Sihanouk, Former King Of Cambodia, Dies At 89
Died in Beijing hospital of heart failure

Chuck Yeager Breaks The Sound Barrier Again At 89
Retired Air Force general takes an F-15 supersonic on 65th anniversary of his historic flight in X-1
Related: Some fool falls 24 miles, survives



POLITICS
National Polls Tighten As Second Debate Looms

Huge crowds greet Romney on the campaign trail

GOP optimism surging, confidence in Romney increasing according to WaPo/ABC poll

Navy Says Sub, AEGIS Cruiser Collide, Investigation To Follow

Governor Brown Struggles Against Buffett’s Children

A Divide Of Donors In Massachusetts Senate Race

Todd Akin Speaks On God In Public Life At KC Forum, Cites Increased Support From GOP

Graham, Issa Accuse White House Of Putting Politics Ahead Of Safety In Libya

More Asian-Americans Seeking Higher Political Office



THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Oil Slips As Demand Worsens; NYMEX $91.14, Brent $114.08
PRC Inflation Rate Dips To 1.9%
Bernanke Defends Fed, This Time From Foreign Critics
Softbank To Buy 70% Stake In Sprint, Shares Fall
Faster GDP Growth Predicted For 2013, If Congress Avoids Fiscal Cliff
2013 Social Security COLA Increase Could Be Lowest Since 1975
Amazon.com Says E-Book Refunds May Be Coming
Microsoft Turns On New XBox Music Service
FTC staffers Pushing For Antitrust Actions Against Google
SNL Skit Mocks iPhone 5 Complaints, Compares Whiny Tech Writers To Apple Factory Workers In PRC
Apple Agrees to Pay Up For Using Iconic Swiss Clock Design
Taking “Forza Horizon” For A Spin



SPORTS
Tigers Primed To Win Pennant In A New York Minute

Phil Coke reacts after striking out Curtis Granderson to win Game 2 of the ALCS

Punchless, Jeter-less Yankees fall to Detroit 2-0

Freese, Beltran Go Yard, Boost Cards To 6-4 Win In NLCS Game One

Rodgers Throws 6 TDs As Packers Rout Texans

Seahawks Steal 43-24 Win After Patsies’ Futile Second Half

Tide #1 In BCS Standings

Giants Force Three Interceptions, Rip 49ers 26-3

Lions Rally, Beat Eagles In OT

Ravens Barely Survive Cowboy Ambush

Griffin, Redskins Run Past Vikings

Pieces In Place For Nationals To Make Another Big Run In 2013



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS
Russell Crowe, Danielle Spencer Split

Russell Crowe and Danielle Spencer

Marriage of nine years a victim of his shooting schedule

Lindsay Lohan To Sit Down With Barbara Walters

Neighbors Ban Unspeakable Armenians From Filming In South Beach

Gary Collins Dead At 74

Rapper Nas Loses Georgia House To Foreclosure, Auction

“Taken II” Leads Box Office For Second Week,  “Argo” Debuts At #2

Hulk Hogan Contacts FBI Over Leaked Sex Tape

“Friday Night Lights” Creator Accuses Mitt Romney Of Plagiarism



FOREIGNERS
Pakistani Schoolgirl Attacked By Taliban Sent To UK For Treatment
Tensions Between Syria & Turkey Grow
Lithuania’s Left, Populists Move To Form Government After Defeating Conservative Coalition
Mauritanian President Survives “Accidental” Shooting
Libya Chooses Ex-Diplomat As Prime Minister
Nigerian Army Says Mosque Massacre Criminal, Not Sectarian
Israel Warns Finns Ship Will Be Blocked From Entering Gaza
Muslim Rebels Arrive To Sign Philippine Peace Pact
Human Rights Watch Accuses Assad Regime Of Using Cluster Bombs On Civilians


BLOGS & STUFF
American Power: That So-Called Racist Romney Shirt Is Almost Certainly Photoshopped
NRO Corner: Axelrod Won’t Say If Obama Met With National Security Team Before Heading Off To Vegas
Power Line: Axelrod, Bobbing And Weaving Over Benghazi
Jennifer Rubin: Where Is CIA Director Petraeus?
Breitbart: Morgan For Mitt – CNN Star Says Romney “Might Just Save America”
Atlas Shrugs: Thousands Of Muslims Protest Free Speech At Google’s London HQ
Legal Insurrection: Preview Of Presidential Town Hall Debate
Protein Wisdom: Stealth Jihad – NY Review Of Books Calls For Criminalizing Criticism Of Islam

NewsBusters: Candy Crowley’s Moderator Role Under Scrutiny Even Before Debate Starts
Wake Up America: Why Obama’s Strategy Is Backfiring – Reality
Weasel Zippers: Dimwit Tommy Christopher Freaks Out, Accuses Mark Sanford Of Calling Obama A Spearchucker

Category: Live at Five

Libya Cover-Up: Hillary Clinton Throws Obama Under His Own Benghazi Bus

Posted on | October 14, 2012 | 51 Comments

The Benghazi blame game has been going on for more than a month since the Sept. 11 attack in Libya that killed U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans. Last week there were signals that Team Obama was trying to make Hillary Clinton’s State Department the scapegoat, but anybody who knows the Clintons could have predicted she wasn’t going to take the fall. Today, Hillary struck back:

A confusing array of contradictions concerning the murders of four Americans, one of which was a U.S. ambassador, was made worse by Vice President Joe Biden’s remarks during the debate with Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan Thursday evening.
Today the confusion only worsened yet again when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters that her agency was not the source of misinformation concerning the attacks, charging instead that the White House was the source of the false mantra that the murders were spurred by an anti-Muslim film made in the  United States.
Clinton told reporters that when Susan Rice, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, made her rounds on every Sunday morning news show to claim the film motivated the attacks, the information had been fed to her by the White House and not the intelligence community in the State Department or the CIA.
Not only does Clinton’s statement contradict early White House accounts but directly contradicts statements made by Vice President Biden during the debate.

If Obama thinks he’s gonna throw Hillary Clinton under his bus, he’s going to find out the hard way his bus ain’t big enough. He’s not looking too good in the polls lately — even PPP has him trailing Romney in Florida now — and rather than playing the Good Soldier in his doomed re-election campaign, why shouldn’t Hillary kick off her 2016 campaign by helping expose Obama’s bungling? And here’s a good laugh for you:

Axelrod defends White House on Libya,
says Romney seeking to ‘exploit’ issue

Oh, sure, like David Axelrod never exploited an issue . . .

 

 

Category: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Libya

Rule 5 Sunday: Celebrity Skin (Stacey Dash Edition)

Posted on | October 14, 2012 | 8 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho


Yep, it’s that time again. Many of these links contain full or partial nudity, guns, knives, appalling taste in music, and/or exposed snooches. Viewer discretion is advised.


Right Wing Uncensored debuts this week with Stacey Dash, Laughing Conservative has Leah Francis with her back against the wall, and RightKlik also pays tribute to the rebellious Ms. Dash. Eye of Polyphemus, meanwhile, has Rachel Nichols, while Fishersville Mike has the U. Virginia cheerleaders. First Street Journal continues their tributes to women in uniform this week with Coasties, and Randy’s Roundtable takes a break with Alina Vacariu.


EBL keys off Protein Wisdom for some Elizabeth Shue, followed by some bottomless Kate Middleton, Badgers we could use more of, and some Sooner gals along with regrettable pix of drunken UT fans.


El Opinador Compuslivo has an all-star lineup this week with Kate Upton, Cameron Diaz, a double-dip of Stacey (That’s Miss Dash if you’re nasty), Bianca Beauchamp, and last – but certainly not least – Mila Kunis.


Soylent Green joins the Stacey Dash parade, after which come Monday Motivationer Tanya, Evening Awesome Heather, Tuesday Titillation Barbara, a record-setting day without Catalina Robayo, Humpday Hawt Hope, more Stacey Dash with bonus Paul Ryan motivation, AM Awesome Anna, a million new site minions, The Ghost Of Corsetcare, Go(Ogler) Shoutout a la Grecque, and a questioning of Canuckistan.


Proof Positive’s Friday Night Babe is (perhaps inevitably) Stacey Dash; his vintage babe Celeste Yarnell. Halle Berry has the Sex In Advertising covered this week; also, obligatory 49ers cheerleaders and happy Thanksgiving wishes to Canada! Dustbury offers Michelle Wie and Beverly Johnson, and at the Camp of the Saints, it’s Kate Upton and the Rule 5 News.


The DaleyGator’s DaleyBabes this week include Yu Akiyama, Jenna Dewan Tatum, Risa Akai, Polly Parsons, Mila Kunis, Monica Keena, Stacey Dash, and Sophia Bush.


Thanks to everyone for their linkagery! To be included in next week’s Rule 5 roundup, send your links to the Rule 5 Wombat mailbox by Saturday, October 20.


UPDATE: Post title corrected to give Ms. Dash, the nearly unanimous choice of our Rule 5 linkers, her propers.

Category: Rule 5
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