The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

America Is Not Italy: Wuhan Coronavirus and the ‘Grisly Calculus’ of Pandemic Risk

Posted on | March 16, 2020 | Comments Off on America Is Not Italy: Wuhan Coronavirus and the ‘Grisly Calculus’ of Pandemic Risk

Let’s start with the good news: My American Spectator colleague Jeffrey Lord just ended two weeks of self-quarantine, a precaution after being potentially exposed to Wuhan coronavirus at CPAC. My brother and I both attended CPAC, of course, and while we are not aware of any direct contact with the person from New Jersey who later was diagnosed as a COVID-19 patient, it was nevertheless possible we were exposed. Having passed the 14-day incubation period, then, we have some sense of relief, although I was not worried because I have a robust immune system.

Sunday, Italy reported 368 COVID-19 deaths in a single day. That was two days after Newt Gingrich (whose wife is U.S. Ambassador to the Vatican) published an alarming report on conditions in Italy, where the pandemic has hit most severely. While I still believe Americans are panicking too much over this virus, Gingrich notes that we are fortunate President Trump took one crucial step very early:

President Donald Trump was right to cut off travel from China as soon as it was clear how big the pandemic was going to be. He saved American lives and bought time for America to be more prepared as the pandemic developed.
When you realize that the current 1,016 deaths in Italy with a population of 60 million would be the equivalent of 5,400 deaths in the United States instead of the 41 deaths we have had so far, you can see what milder, slower and less aggressive responses might have cost in lives. Then we would have needed to move to truly draconian measures of isolation and shutdowns.
By the same standard, Trump was exactly right to ban travel from Europe. In fact, he was following the advice of his best medical experts.

Almost no one in the media is reporting the demographic factors involved in Italy’s pandemic disaster, and I can’t vouch for this “alternative” source’s account about the way manufacturers in Northern Italy brought in thousands of Chinese laborers to work in the leather and textile industries. Nonetheless, seems plausible, because it resembles the way Mexican and Central American laborers have been brought into the United States to work in, for example, meat processing plants.

Precaution is not a synonym for panic. To respond rationally to a genuine risk requires facts and arithmetic, because risk is always a matter of statistical probability. China deliberately suppressed the facts in the immediate aftermath of the Wuhan outbreak, and Italy’s government made the mistake of trusting China. By the time they realized how serious the COVID-19 danger was, it was too late to halt the contagion. Last night, I did some quick math and discovered that, a week earlier, there had been more than 500 reported cases of coronavirus in the United States with 21 reported deaths. As of Sunday night, there were about 3,500 reported U.S. cases with 65 reported deaths. This provides us a benchmark estimate of the rate of increase. By next Monday, I would expect around 20,000 reported U.S. cases with about 200 deaths.

WHY THIS MATTERS:
If the number of reported U.S. coronavirus deaths next Monday is significantly less than 200, it will mean our health system is functioning effectively to identify and treat infected people. If the number of reported cases is significantly less than 20,000 next Monday, it will mean that the precautions taken so far are effective in preventing the spread of the virus. Having extrapolated what the expected numbers would be in a week, these provide a benchmark by which we can tell whether we are winning or losing the fight against this disease.

My hope is that we will be winning, but what’s important is to establish a metric by which we can measure success. Meanwhile . . .

My 19-year-old son’s university canceled on-campus classes for the rest of the semester, so he booked a $49 flight to Florida, where he’s doing his coursework online and babysitting his nephews. My 17-year-old daughter is out of school for at least the next two weeks, and she informs me that her friends on social media are calling this holiday their “coronavacation.” Whether or not school cancellations will do much to halt the spread of Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) is a matter of speculation, but officials everywhere seem to have decided to err on the side of caution. Thus all Americans are affected by this disease, directly or indirectly, without regard to whether or not we ever actually were at any risk.
Blame the media, but also blame the tort lawyers. Imagine you were a university president, and suddenly cable TV news networks are warning of a deadly pandemic, with some experts offering estimates of millions of infections. The president announces a White House Task Force, and it seems as if we are on the verge of a virus-induced apocalypse. Other universities begin announcing that they will suspend classes, and what are you going to do, Mr. University President? Even if you are skeptical about the worst-case scenarios being discussed 24/7 on CNN, there is the problem of liability. See, if you don’t close your campus and even one of your students comes down with this disease, you might face a multimillion-dollar lawsuit, charging you with negligence for failing to take precautions.
Speaking of precautions, how much toilet paper do you have? . . .

Read the rest of my latest column at The American Spectator.



 

Category: China, Health Care, Italy

Rule 5 Sunday: Joy Harmon

Posted on | March 15, 2020 | 1 Comment

– compiled by Wombat-socho

Joy Harmon was an actress who had small parts in a dozen movies from the late 1950s through the 1960s, and continued to appear in several TV series through the 1970s. Her best known role is as the girl washing her car in Cool Hand Luke, from which this pic is taken. Later, she developed her hobby of baking into a highly successful commercial business, providing cakes, cookies, and other sweets to local studios and businesses.

Hot and wet, but not bothered.

Ninety Miles From Tyranny begins this week’s cavalcade of pulchritude with Hot Pick of the Late Night, The 90 Miles Mystery Box Episode #923, Morning Mistress, and Girls With Guns. At Animal Magnetism, it’s Rule Five Job Killer Friday and the Saturday Gingermageddon.

EBL circles the wagons with Lennox & Franklin, Shakira’s “Gordita” (thanks!), Holi Festival 2020, Asparagus Season, North – Nex In March, Johnny Appleseed Day, ZeroZeroZero, Sophie Trudeau, Rita Wilson, Yifei Liu, “Torn”, and Pi Day.

A View From The Beach serves up The Girl Who Broke Wikipedia – Denise Milani, Are Maryland’s Chickens Coming Home to Roost?, That Seems a Little Extreme, Thursday Tanlines, Spring is Sprung, Tuesday Tats,  Longnose Gar Sets New Maryland Record, Another Muddy Monday, They Hate You and They Want You to Die, Palm Sunday and DNA Confirms Viking Warrior Woman.

Proof Positive’s Vintage Babe is Pamela Hensley, and Red Pilled Jew has Pretty Faces for your consideration.

Thanks to everyone for all the luscious linkagery!

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Category: Rule 5

Wuhan Coronavirus Panic Continues

Posted on | March 15, 2020 | Comments Off on Wuhan Coronavirus Panic Continues

 

On Saturday night’s episode of The Other Podcast, Dianna Deeley was discussing the reaction to the Wuhan coronavirus in Georgia, where she lives, and I cited the number of actual cases in Georgia: 66 so far, with exactly one death, in a state with a population of about 10.5 million.

Anyone may offer speculative estimates of how far the virus will eventually spread, but so far, the danger of contagion in Georgia is infinitesimal, with the majority of the cases in three metro Atlanta counties. Math and logic, however, are powerless to stop hysteria:

Georgia elections officials postponed the presidential primary scheduled for next week because of the coronavirus pandemic, becoming the second state forced to push back a vote in the race for the White House due to the outbreak.
The state rescheduled the presidential vote previously scheduled for March 24 until May 19, the same date as the regular primary for a U.S. Senate seat and many other offices, elections officials told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Saturday. “Events are moving rapidly and my highest priority is protecting the health of our poll workers, their families, and the community at large,” said Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

This is arguably unnecessary, and its efficacy as a public-health measure is dubious, but the new rule is: EVERYTHING MUST BE CANCELLED!

As a matter of speculation, let’s just suppose that by March 24, Georgia’s Wuhan coronavirus cases quadrupled: 264 cases, four deaths. Still, in a population of 10.5 million people, such a number would not be a crisis. If 11 people died, that’s still just a one-in-a-million chance, and you might as well wager a month’s salary on the Powerball lottery, I guess.

Mere statistics cannot prevent panic, however, when the cable-news networks are now 24/7 in their reporting of the DEADLY PANDEMIC! People are reacting on the basis of emotion, not reason, and yet I feel the need to continue citing the actual numbers, so that those who have not yet succumbed to hysteria will at least have access to information that contradicts the media’s incessant drumbeat of doom.

So far, 2,826 cases of Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) have been reported in the United States, with 59 deaths. State-by-state:

Washington State …… 642 (40 deaths)
New York ……………….. 613 (2 deaths)
California ……………… 286 (5 deaths)
Colorado ……………….. 101 (1 death)

These four states have more than half (1,642, or 58%) of known COVID-19 infections, and 81% of the deaths reported from the virus. The rest of the country, 46 states, is comparatively unaffected in real terms, yet schools are shut down, the NBA is cancelled, and people are stampeding stores to buy up all the hand sanitizer, bottled water and toilet paper.

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) – There has been one confirmed case of the coronavirus in Montgomery County, and after health officials say they anticipate the virus spreading quickly in the coming weeks, locals are stocking up with supplies if they need be quarantined.
Household items like toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and bleach are flying off the shelves. Customers are desperate to stash up, leaving stores in Montgomery noticeably empty.
“There is no toilet paper on the shelves so I just got the paper towels and hopefully that will suffice,” said Walmart shopper Vanessa Ball.
Some families are even having to preorder their toilet paper because it is such a hot commodity.
“I feel lucky and probably like we need to get it in the car before we’re mugged or something for toilet tissue,” said Walmart shopper Steven Smith.
But toilet paper isn’t the only supply running out, says Renfroe’s Market Store Manager Clark Psalmonds.
“Disinfecting sprays, wipes, sanitizers are unheard of right now,” said Psalmonds. “You can’t find a sanitizer nowhere in the area.”

Ain’t none of them dadgum sanitizers nowhere in Alabama!



 

Category: Health Care

First Russia, Then Ukraine, Now a Virus — ‘The Walls Are Closing In’ on Trump!

Posted on | March 14, 2020 | 2 Comments

 

One symptom of mental illness is magical thinking, “the belief that one’s own thoughts, wishes, or desires can influence the external world. . . . People with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) engage in a type of magical thinking. . . . People diagnosed with schizophrenia and delusional disorders may also experience bouts of magical thinking.”

What drives the schizophrenic mad is a sense of helplessness, a lack of agency, the feeling that external forces are controlling their lives. In this condition, they resort to child-like fantasies of omnipotence, where they have the power to fulfill their desires simply by wishing the desired outcome into existence. Such delusional thinking is evident in the behaviors of those afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome.

The disappointment of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 defeat had a traumatic psychological impact on Trump’s enemies, particularly in the media, who experienced the election result as a loss of power. Immediately, the anti-Trump media began seizing on anything — a scandal, a poll result, Russian “collusion,” etc. — that might rid them of this demonized figure whose political success symbolized to them their own failure. Thus was born the “walls are closing in” meme of liberal media fantasy, where the latest “bombshell” was always “the beginning of the end” for Trump.

 

Never mind that 63 million Americans voted to elect Trump, and never mind any evidence of his success in office, the liberal media cannot accept the possibility that they are wrong. No one they know voted for Trump. Everyone whose opinion they respect agrees with them: Trump is Hitler, everyone who voted for Trump is a racist, and therefore, in order that Good triumph over Evil, the walls are always closing in on Trump.

Consider this outburst from #NeverTrump intellectual Peter Wehner:

It took until the second half of Trump’s first term, but the crisis has arrived in the form of the coronavirus pandemic, and it’s hard to name a president who has been as overwhelmed by a crisis as the coronavirus has overwhelmed Donald Trump.
To be sure, the president isn’t responsible for either the coronavirus or the disease it causes, COVID-19, and he couldn’t have stopped it from hitting our shores even if he had done everything right. Nor is it the case that the president hasn’t done anything right; in fact, his decision to implement a travel ban on China was prudent. And any narrative that attempts to pin all of the blame on Trump for the coronavirus is simply unfair. The temptation among the president’s critics to use the pandemic to get back at Trump for every bad thing he’s done should be resisted, and schadenfreude is never a good look.
That said, the president and his administration are responsible for grave, costly errors . . .
Donald Trump is shrinking before our eyes.
The coronavirus is quite likely to be the Trump presidency’s inflection point, when everything changed, when the bluster and ignorance and shallowness of America’s 45th president became undeniable, an empirical reality, as indisputable as the laws of science or a mathematical equation.
It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the con man behind the curtain. The president, enraged for having been unmasked, will become more desperate, more embittered, more unhinged. He knows nothing will be the same. His administration may stagger on, but it will be only a hollow shell. The Trump presidency is over.

This is “magical thinking” in action. Because Wehner wants the Trump presidency to end in failure, the coronavirus must be a catastrophic pandemic, and therefore he and his anti-Trump friends are doing everything possible to incite public hysteria over a disease which, as I explained Friday, has so far infected only a tiny fraction of Americans, in comparison to the many thousands afflicted in China, Italy and Iran. As of noon today, the Wuhan coronavirus had caused 1,266 deaths in Italy (population 60.4 million) and 191 deaths in Spain (population 46.8 million), compared to the 49 deaths in the United States (population 327 million). The situation in Italy appears to be spiraling out of control, but the number of U.S. cases (about 2,400) is fewer than in either Germany (4,174 cases in a population of 83.8 million) or France (3,667 cases in a population of 65.3 million). How is Trump guilty of “grave, costly errors” when Americans appear to be so much safer from this disease than are people in many European nations? What happens if the coronavirus panic turns out to be overblown? What if, under Trump’s leadership, the impact in the United States proves to be much less severe than in those European socialist countries that liberals are always praising as superior to capitalist America? Isn’t it possible that the American people will figure out that Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) were deliberately trying to incite a panic for political motives?

Peter Wehner and his friends have not considered that possibility, because they are emotionally invested in the worst-case scenario as part of their “magical thinking” delusion. What they seem to forget — Trump Derangement Syndrome has impaired their memory — is that elections are a choice, and you can’t beat somebody with nobody. Does anyone really believe Joe Biden is the man who will save America from doom?

Spare a thought today for our moral, ethical, and intellectual betters in the press. They’re going through a lot right now. In 2016 they sacrificed what was left of their dignity to drag Hillary Clinton across the finish line, and she failed them anyway. Now they’re expected to spend the next eight months cleaning up after this doddering old fossil, who makes Hillary look like a paragon of competence and health. No wonder they’re so grouchy all the time!

(Hat-tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)



 

Category: Health Care

Fear and Loathing in South Beach: Florida Democrat ‘Rising Star’ Found in Hotel Room With Meth and Gay Escort

Posted on | March 14, 2020 | 1 Comment

 

Typical Democrat behavior:

Andrew Gillum, a married father-of-three who narrowly missed out on becoming Florida’s first black governor, was too ‘inebriated’ to speak when cops arrived at the ritzy Mondrian Hotel in Miami’s South Beach party district.
He was inside the room early Friday with two more men, one of them a 30-year-old male escort named Travis Dyson who was being treated by paramedics for a suspected drug overdose.
Cops found three plastic bags of suspected crystal meth and the third man present, Aldo Mejias, 56, told officers that Gillum and Dyson had been ‘under the influence of an unknown substance’, according to a police report . . .
The report also noted that 40-year-old Gillum, a former Tallahassee mayor and regular CNN contributor, was seen vomiting in the bathroom and required a welfare check to see if he was okay.
Police are not pressing charges over the incident and Gillum denies taking drugs, however he later issued a groveling apology over his behavior. . . .
Miami Beach resident Dyson describes himself as a trauma certified ER nurse on social media, where he posts photos of himself working out in the gym, partying at gay nightspots and lounging on luxury yachts.
But DailyMail.com can reveal he also posts explicit photos and homemade porn movies online and has previously had a profile on the Rent.men website, which advertises male escorts and sex workers.

More details at Heavy.com.

Credit is due to Candace Owens for digging up a lot of material on this case. Gillum claimed his Miami party was celebrating a wedding, but the gay escort said he didn’t know anything about that. Deborah Heine notes:

Gillum and his former campaign treasurer Adam Corey were both the subjects of a Florida ethics investigation and an FBI corruption probe, stemming from his time as the Mayor of Tallahassee. Gillum, who is married, and Corey were rumored to have been in a long term intimate relationship.

As my brother Kirby said: “Ed Buck could not be reached for comment.”



 

Category: Democrats, Florida, Gays

In The Mailbox: 03.13.20

Posted on | March 13, 2020 | 2 Comments

– compiled by Wombat-socho

OVER THE TRANSOM
357 Magnum: The Violence & Arrogance Of The Democrats
EBL: Sophie Gregoire Trudeau
Twitchy: Former Head Of Obama’s ACA Called Out For Doing His Best To Terrify The Masses
Louder With Crowder: Media Says Saying “Wuhan Flu” Is Racist, So Here’s A Montage Of Media Racism
According To Hoyt: Unintended Consequences, also, A State Of Madness
Monster Hunter Nation: Correia On Current Events
Vox Popoli: Why Christianity Is Vital To Civilization, also, This Is Not Fear Porn

RIPPED FROM THE HEADLINES
Adam Piggott:
American Conservative: Joe Biden – The Democrats’ Exhausted Surrender
American Greatness: Instead Of Bracing For Coronavirus, Democrats Focused On Impeachment, also, Andrew Gillum Involved In Crystal Meth Incident With Two Other Men In Hotel Room
American Thinker: America’s Nightmare – A Colorless, Grumpy President, also, Exploding The NYT’s Anti-American 1619 Project
Animal Magnetism: Rule Five Job Killer Friday
Babalu Blog: Cuban Literacy Program Praised By Bernie Was In Fact A Massive Indoctrination Campaign
BattleSwarm: LinkSwarm For March 13
Cafe Hayek: Panic & Paid Leave
Da Tech Guy: Cancel Culture Corona Style & A Few Too Many Bodies Under The Fedora
Don Surber: Highlights Of The News
First Street Journal: Gov. Beshear (D-KY) Thinks Church Should Be Cancelled Due To Corona-Chan
The Geller Report: Former FL Dem Gov Candidate Andrew Gillum Found Naked In Suspected Drug-Fueled Gay Orgy, also, Melbourne Jihad Stabbing Rampage
Hogewash: Team Kimberlin Post of The Day, also, Generational Differences
Hollywood In Toto: How Mock & Daisy Make Conservatism Downright Hilarious, also, Sue Costello Says Hollywood’s Not Doing Enough To Stop The Next Weinstein
Legal Insurrection: NYT Reporter Complains “Disdain & Distrust Of Media Now Worse Than At Any Point During This Presidency”, also, DOJ & DEA Announce Arrests Of Over 600 Alleged Mexican Cartel Members
The PanAm Post: What Should Colombia Do When The Dollar Is Expensive? also, Spain Can’t Fix Its Vulnerable Economy After Coronavirus
Power Line: The Great Toilet Paper Pandemic Of 2020, also, That Schiffty Mr. Schiff
Shark Tank: Andrew Gillum Found “Under The Influence” On Scene Of Drug Overdose
Shot In The Dark: You May Ask Yourself…
STUMP: Pandemic – Coronavirus Links & Some Fun Stuff
The Political Hat: Firing Line Friday – Democratic Culture
This Ain’t Hell: Soldier Rescues Woman, Four Dogs From Burning Home, also, Valor Friday
Victory Girls: Gavin Newsom To Commandeer Property Because Wuhan Flu
Volokh Conspiracy: Do Pandemics Strengthen The Case For Immigration Restriction?
Weasel Zippers: Red China’s State Media Hints It Could Cut Off Meds To U.S., also, President Trump Officially Declares Wuhan Flu National Emergency
Mark Steyn: You Can’t Say That! (Or Anything Else)

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Category: Linkagery

A Heart-Warming Story That Every Patriotic American Can Celebrate

Posted on | March 13, 2020 | 1 Comment

 

This is guaranteed to bring a smile to your face:

Former liberal media darling and frequent CNN guest Michael Avenatti was recently held in a “rat-infested” jail cell for a 10-day stretch and “and was able to shower only twice in about two weeks,” according to The Washington Post.
Citing a letter Avenatti’s attorney sent to a judge, the Post reported that the former lawyer to porn star Stormy Daniels had a rough time during a lockdown at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Lower Manhattan, where he’s being held since last month after being found guilty of trying to extort Nike.
A New York jury found Avenatti, 48, guilty on three counts, including extortion, wire fraud and transmission of interstate communications with intent to extort. He faces up to 42 years in prison [when he is] sentenced later this year. According to the Post, Avenatti’s attorney said inmates lacked soap and or hot water to wash their hands and faced “deplorable” conditions.
“Avenatti’s cell was ‘infested with rats,’ and the facility ‘reeks of urine,’ the Post reported.

 

Yes, let us smile as we recall the Creepy Porn Lawyer announcing — on the Fourth of July, no less — his intention to challenge Trump in 2020:

Media Research Center director Tim Graham wrote last month that “CNN and MSNBC gave Avenatti 230 interviews in one year.”
Back in 2018, an MRC study revealed that Avenatti appeared on CNN a whopping 74 times over a 10-week period and the network’s in-house media critic Brian Stelter famously declared the now-disgraced porn lawyer was a legitimate threat to challenge Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
Stelter told Avenatti on air, “Looking ahead to 2020, one of the reasons why I’m taking you seriously as a [2020 presidential] contender is because of your presence on cable news.”

In addition to trying to blackmail Nike, Avenatti has been accused of several other crimes, including fraud, perjury and tax evasion. Oh, I’m sure his friends at CNN and MSNBC will miss their favorite guest, who is now where he has always belonged, in a rat-infested cell.

(Hat-tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)



 

Category: CNN, Crime, Democrats, MSNBC

The Absurdity of the Wuhan Virus Panic

Posted on | March 13, 2020 | Comments Off on The Absurdity of the Wuhan Virus Panic

 

Students at John Hopkins University have created a COVID-19 (Wuhan coronavirus) outbreak map, from which we may learn that, as of this morning, the disease has caused nearly 5,000 deaths worldwide, of which more than 4,000 were either in China or Italy. Likewise, of the 134,700 COVID-19 cases identified worldwide, four nations (China, Italy, Iran and South Korea) account for approximately 114,000 cases, about 85%. What percentage of COVID-19 cases are in the United States? A tiny fraction. We’ve had about 1,700 cases identified, with 41 deaths.

EVERYTHING IS CLOSED! No more NBA games, major league baseball has proposed postponing Opening Day, and my college-age kids have had their campuses closed down for the rest of the term. In New York, the governor has banned any gathering of more than 500 people, and the debate scheduled for Sunday between Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders will take place without a live audience. Nine members of Congress have declared themselves in “self-quarantine” because they may have been exposed to the virus, and Democrats are trying to wedge all their pet projects into an emergency legislative package to deal with the outbreak. All this because of a contagion that has, so far, killed fewer Americans than gunfire in Chicago.

Did I mention that about three-quarters of U.S. coronavirus deaths have occurred in Washington State? Or that nearly all U.S. cases can be traced to those who have traveled abroad? President Trump banned travel to China six weeks ago, and this week banned travel from continental Europe. So between those travel bans and the shutting down of everything — no school! no sports! — we might reasonably expect the spread of the virus to soon begin dwindling. Yet as the actual risk to Americans is decreasing, it seems panic is conversely increasing.

Roger Kimball says this panic “is a textbook case of the Rahm Emanuel principle that you never want a good crisis to go to waste.” Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) are deliberately inciting panic in order to justify implementation of “reforms” that expand government power. All we have to do is calm down for a few weeks, and the COVID-19 threat will be over by mid-April at the latest. Meanwhile . . .

 

The Babylon Bee treats this panic with the seriousness it deserves.



 

Category: Health Care
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