The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Question the Timing (and Sample): Poll Shows Obama Leading in Swing States

Posted on | August 1, 2012 | 15 Comments

You will remember that Democrats were panicking last month at the realization that Mitt Romney and the GOP outraised the DNC/Obama team in June, and that Obama’s unsustainable “burn rate” — pouring on a 2-to-1 ad blitz — had failed to move independent voters.

Everything the Dems had done was being sabotaged by Obama’s tone-deaf “you didn’t build that” gaffe, and so the mainstream media (eager to do their part to help undo Obama’s self-inflicted damage) decided to recycle their IRS mantra and turn everything Romney said during his foreign trip into a scandalous “controversy.”

Nevertheless, the needle didn’t really budge: It’s still basically neck-and-neck in the RCP national average. So what does the MSM do next? Come out with a poll showing (or at least claiming to show) that Obama is leading, with more than 50% support, in two key swing states — Ohio and Florida — plus Pennsylvania, which isn’t exactly a swing state (no Republican presidential candidate has carried it since 1988) but where Romney hopes to be competitive.

Can you say “f–ked-up sample,” boys and girls? The so called “internals” on the Quinnipiac/CBS/NY Times Florida poll show a partisan breakdown in the “weighted sample” of Democrat 36%, Republican 27%, Independent 32%. This is Florida, a state with a Republican governor, Republican control of both houses of the state legislature, and a House delegation that is 19 Republicans and 6 Democrats.

Despite such obvious facts, we are supposed to believe that Democrats enjoy a NINE POINT ADVANTAGE among “likely voters” in Florida?


Less than six weeks ago, a Quinnipiac poll of Florida had a “weighted sample” of Democrat 31%, Republican 28%, Independent 35%. We are supposed to believe that, since late June, there has been 6-point net swing of partisan ID from D+3 to D+9  among likely voters in a state where, I repeat, the GOP dominates elected offices.

I’ll be back to expand and update this just as soon as I can get my blood pressure down below the apoplectic stroke level.

UPDATE: Ed Morrissey managed to avoid an apoplectic stroke this morning, which is encouraging. How can I describe this bizarre imbalance in the partisan ID of the “weighted sample”? How to put this improbable distortion in layman’s terms, as it were?

Let’s put it this way: According to a recent Quinnipiac survey, my penis is 15 inches long, with a 4-inch margin of error.



15 Responses to “Question the Timing (and Sample): Poll Shows Obama Leading in Swing States”

  1. jlwellfonder
    August 1st, 2012 @ 4:06 pm


  2. smitty
    August 1st, 2012 @ 4:24 pm

    Your pen is is 15″? Doubling the verb is bollocks, boss. 🙂

  3. FenelonSpoke
    August 1st, 2012 @ 4:43 pm

    Perhaps you should not share the size of your penis. Despite your large conservative political opinions. Anamika may ask for a date. ;^)

  4. Charles
    August 1st, 2012 @ 4:51 pm

    The implications of this poll are that if Obama can hold these three states, Romney would have to run the board in the rest of the battleground states. On the other hand, if Romney can win 1 or 2 of these three states, that opens up a lot of possibilities.

  5. McGehee
    August 1st, 2012 @ 5:18 pm

    Quinnipiac is an old Indian word that means, “Hey, if you’re signing the checks we’ll get you a poll result that says the sun rises in the west!”

  6. Shawn Gillogly
    August 1st, 2012 @ 5:52 pm

    Been seeing a LOT of these bizarre sample sizes lately. The NBC/WSJ had a D+11 national survey, which was also *absurd*. But hey, anything to keep the race cross, right?

  7. Gaius
    August 1st, 2012 @ 6:57 pm
  8. DaveO
    August 1st, 2012 @ 6:59 pm

    Hmmm, sounds familiar – someone in the recent past noted the pollsters and reporters of polls would start lying.

  9. Wombat_socho
    August 1st, 2012 @ 7:42 pm

     I think she’s been around here long enough to be wary of the wrath of Mrs. Other McCain. I know Stacy is. 🙂

  10. Adjoran
    August 1st, 2012 @ 7:58 pm

    In all three states, the partisan breakdown equals the turnout in 2008.  So apparently the genius statisticians are operating under the assumption that Democratic enthusiasm will equal that year’s modern record and Republican lack of enthusiasm will, too, the intervening years and the 2010 election, the Tea Party formation, the reality of Obama as an operational failure as opposed to an inspirational apparition, are all to be forgotten completely by the electorate.

    And if you buy that, I have a bridge going into Brooklyn I just know you will be interested in.


  11. Evilbloggerlady
    August 1st, 2012 @ 8:37 pm

    Words of Wisdom!  

  12. McGehee
    August 1st, 2012 @ 8:39 pm

    So apparently the genius statisticians are operating under the
    assumption that Democratic enthusiasm will equal that year’s modern

    You mean like how the media expected the 2006 hurricane season to be as mind-blowingly, record-shatteringly active as the 2005 season was?

    Somebody refresh my memory were there any Atlantic hurricanes in 2006?

  13. Evilbloggerlady
    August 1st, 2012 @ 8:42 pm

    Reality Check:  Florida and Ohio are close.  But even Rasmussen (last time I checked) had Obama ahead (granted by a much narrower margin) so we need to recognize that this is not in the bag but it is hardly lost either.  

    Florida and Ohio are really must wins for Romney.  If he loses either I think Romney loses (I know he could win still, but it would be very difficult).  

    Pennsylvania is a must win for Obama.  If Obama loses that he loses.  

    Now I suppose we could have Romney win Pennsylvania and Obama win Florida and Ohio, which is unlikely but if it did happen I think Obama wins.  

  14. DaveO
    August 1st, 2012 @ 9:49 pm

    Hugo Chavez farted, and then nationalized Venezuela’s wind farms. Does that count?

  15. Finrod Felagund
    August 1st, 2012 @ 10:05 pm

    Did you notice that they didn’t put the demographic information in the main url; you had to look for and find at the very bottom links to separate files for each of the states.  Lame.