ALASKA SENATE COUNTDOWN TODAY UPDATE: MURKOWSKI CONCEDES!

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ANCHORAGE, Alaska
UPDATE Midnight ET (4 p.m. local) — The AOSHQ flaming skull dipped in pudding? Where’s Norah O’Donnell now that we need her?

UPDATE 11 p.m. ET (7 p.m. local) — It’s over. I just returned to Joe Miller campaign HQ after attending Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s concession speech on the other side of town. I fed live audio to Melissa Clouthier via cell phone, so she Tweeted the speech as it happened:

“Based where we are right now, I don’t see a scenario where the primary will turn out in my favor. . . . For the good of the state of [Alaska], I’m conceding the race for Senator. . . . We stayed on the high road.”

I’m now racing deadline for The American Spectator, so that should be it for now.

Celebrate, America: IT’S MILLER TIME!

UPDATE 11:25 p.m. ET (7:25 p.m. local): MALKIN-LANCHE!

And let me ask readers: After I spent last night in a fleabag motel near the airport, don’t you think I deserve a night in the Sheraton downtown? Hit the freaking tip jar!

UPDATE 8:50 p.m. ET (4:50 p.m. local) — Absenttes in Fairbanks are reported to be good news for Joe Miller. Anchorage talk-radio host Dan Fagan on 750 KFQD just said that the votes remaining to be counted would have to break 55% for Lisa Murkowski in order for her to win: “That’s not going to happen . . . . It’s over.”

Joe Miller campaign headquarters, where a delivery of pudding is expected to arrive momentarily.

Momma O’s is famed for its fried halibut sandwiches.

Miller volunteer SemperVigilo drives the “JoeMobile.”

UPDATE 8 p.m. ET (4 p.m. local) — Dan Riehl and Big Government were first to break this, and other sources here in Anchorage are also reporting that Lisa Murkowski is expected to concede the GOP nomination to Joe Miller in a few hours.

UPDATE 8:25 p.m. ET (4:25 p.m. local) — More numbers reporting, now the margin is 1,210 votes.

7:40 p.m. ET (3:40 p.m. local) — Joe Miller is now being interviewed live on the Mark Levin show.

UPDATE 7:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. local) — OK, it turns out that that folks at Joe Miller campaign HQ had been misinformed about the count in districts 13-16. I just interviewed Gail Fenumiai of the Alaska Division of Elections, who explained that absentee ballots (and early votes) were counted in those Mat-Su districts today. It was the questioned ballots that weren’t counted, and those will be counted Friday.

As of now, Miller leads by 1,292 votes. We don’t know if numbers from Juneau are included in this total. They’ve just started counting in Fairbanks. Fenumiai said she expects the online totals for today’s votes to be more or less complete by “six-ish” — i.e., 10 p.m. ET.

The summary at this point: Chill out. At this point, we’re still about three hours away from knowing what the complete picture is today. However, if there are any Ace of Spades readers in Anchorage, please drop off a six-pack of Jello vanilla pudding cups at the Miller campaign HQ on Northern Lights Boulevard.

UPDATE 5:55 p.m. ET (1:55 p.m. local) — While we were at lunch, the margin shifted again. Now, Joe Miller leads by 1,294 votes. I’m told that this reflects early votes and questioned ballots from the Wasilla-Palmer area.

I’m told that districts 13 through 16  will only count questioned and early ballots today, while absentees there won’t be counted until tomorrow.

UPDATE 6:10 p.m. ET (2:10 p.m. local) — Just confirmed with Miller campaign manager Robert Campbell: Absentee ballots in districts 13-16 — Miller-Palmer area, aka the Mat-Su Valley — will not be counted until Wednesday. So today’s totals, with Lisa Murkowski gaining slightly, do not reflect the final outcome in those districts, generally considered a Miller stronghold.

4:35 p.m. ET (12:35 p.m. local) — Joe Miller has just increased his lead over Lisa Murkowski to 1,460 after further counting of absentee ballots in the GOP Senate primary.

Now linked at Conservatives for Palin — thanks! — and also at Riehl World View, where Dan also reports further accusations of shenanigans.

UPDATE 4:25 p.m. ET (12:25 p.m. local time) — “We’re thinking it will be a good day at the end of the day,” Joe Miller campaign spokesman Randy DeSoto says in reaction to preliminary absentee ballot count from Anchorage:

UPDATE 4:05 p.m. (12:05 p.m. local) — Things are very busy at Miller campaign HQ, about three blocks away from the Elections Division office. Spoke briefly to campaign manager Robert Campbell and interviewed campaign spokesman Randy DeSoto and hope to have video in a few minutes.

Thanks for the Ace-o-Lanche — don’t panic, Ace. “So far, it looks pretty good for us,” as one source close to the campaign just said. The Anchorage Daily News is also blogging the results live.

Two friendly ladies named Mary staff the front desk at Joe Miller campaign HQ.

Linked by Brian O’Connor at Red Dog Report. Thanks!

UPDATE 3:25 p.m. ET (11:25 a.m. local) — After preliminary count of absentee ballots from Anchorage division, Joe Miller leads by a 1,325-vote margin, with 48,051 votes to 46726 for Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Although this narrows Miller’s lead from 1,668 in Election Day results, it is being interpreted as good news by the Miller campaign, because Anchorage had generally leaned toward Murkowski. Miller’s stronghold is in the Mat-Su Valley, where preliminary results of the absentee ballot count will be reported later today.

UPDATE 3:10 p.m. ET (11:10 a.m. local time) — Preliminary totals for absentee ballots from Anchorage should be available within the hour, according to Gail Fenumiai, director of the Alaska Division of Elections.

The absentee count began at 9 a.m. in Anchorage, where five clerks were operating Accu-Vote optical scanners at the Election Divisions headquarters. On the other side of the same room, separated by a partition wall, five more clerks were reviewing “questioned” ballots. Officials and volunteers representing both candidates in the GOP primary — Sen. Lisa Murkowski and challenger Joe Miller — were observing the count.

Meanwhile, the absentee count began at 10 a.m. local time in the Mat-Su Valley district office, while Juneau is scheduled to begin counting at 1 p.m. and the count begins in Fairbanks at 3 p.m.

Soon to be the World’s Most Famous Ballot-Counters operate the Accu-Vote optical scanners at the Elections Division office in Anchorage.

Gail Fenumiai of the Alaska Division of Elections briefs reporters covering the absentee ballot count in Anchorage.

PREVIOUSLY: OK, I just checked. It’s 2.7 miles from my cheap motel near the airport to the Division of Elections office downtown. where they start counting absentee ballots at 9 a.m. (1 p.m. ET). The Division of Elections is less than half a mile from the Joe Miller campaign headquarters. Expect updates throughout the day.

According to the Associated Press, they’ll only be counting about half the remaining ballots today:

Nearly 11,000 absentee ballots are scheduled to be counted Tuesday in Alaska with the outcome of the Republican primary in the U.S. Senate race in the balance.
The Alaska Division of Elections lists 10,850 absentee ballots for the count starting Tuesday morning in Anchorage and Wasilla and Tuesday afternoon in Fairbanks and Juneau.
Another 14,000 ballots still outstanding presumably will be counted Friday and Sept. 8.

Got to take a quick shower and pack. Here’s the front page of today’s Anchorage Daily News:

PREVIOUSLY:

159 comments

  1. I am relieved to see what look like optical-scan ballots. That means that, provided the ballots physically cast were locked up inside the machines and security maintained thereafter, we can get a recount in the precinct where that Murky operative got on the computer for 20 minutes and did God knows what.

    And there will be no hanging, pregnant, nor dimpled chads.

  2. I am relieved to see what look like optical-scan ballots. That means that, provided the ballots physically cast were locked up inside the machines and security maintained thereafter, we can get a recount in the precinct where that Murky operative got on the computer for 20 minutes and did God knows what.

    And there will be no hanging, pregnant, nor dimpled chads.

  3. The State of Alaska says all anyone could have done on the computer is read the information – changes are allowed only through their secured servers.

    Don’t worry, though – soon RSMcC will be bringing us the exclusive exposure of all the dirty dealings. Unless all those accusations were just made up.

  4. The State of Alaska says all anyone could have done on the computer is read the information – changes are allowed only through their secured servers.

    Don’t worry, though – soon RSMcC will be bringing us the exclusive exposure of all the dirty dealings. Unless all those accusations were just made up.

  7. Although this narrows Miller’s lead from 1,668 in Election Day results, it is being interpreted as good news by the Miller campaign, because Anchorage had generally leaned toward Murkowski.

    Murkowski actually outperformed her election day margin in this batch from the Anchorage districts, according to Swing State Project:

    Crunching the numbers using Jeffmd’s spreadsheet, Murkowski won House Districts 17 through 26 on election day by 53% of the vote. She won 57% from this batch of absentees.

  8. Although this narrows Miller’s lead from 1,668 in Election Day results, it is being interpreted as good news by the Miller campaign, because Anchorage had generally leaned toward Murkowski.

    Murkowski actually outperformed her election day margin in this batch from the Anchorage districts, according to Swing State Project:

    Crunching the numbers using Jeffmd’s spreadsheet, Murkowski won House Districts 17 through 26 on election day by 53% of the vote. She won 57% from this batch of absentees.

  9. Here’s the bottom line, as pbs60 @Swing State Project put it:

    According to the Alaska Elections website, Murkowski carried Districts 17-26 with 52.82% of the vote. The new ballots from those districts have gone to her with 57.2%. If Murkowski over-performs her Election Day numbers by the same 4.4% in all districts in the new ballots across-the-board, she would need a total of 23,843 new ballots to be counted to eke out a victory.

  10. Here’s the bottom line, as pbs60 @Swing State Project put it:

    According to the Alaska Elections website, Murkowski carried Districts 17-26 with 52.82% of the vote. The new ballots from those districts have gone to her with 57.2%. If Murkowski over-performs her Election Day numbers by the same 4.4% in all districts in the new ballots across-the-board, she would need a total of 23,843 new ballots to be counted to eke out a victory.

  15. Estragon,

    It’s not OK for people to screw around with elections, in any way. Confidence in our elections is an important matter. That Murkowski’s people are screwing around, even if their rule breaking didn’t overtly change votes, is unacceptable.

    There are theories as to how this could lead to cheating (such as figuring out which ballots hadn’t been returned yet, obviously helpful for cheaters), but I suspect they just didn’t care what the rules were. This is the Murkowski campaign, and their entitlement attitude reeks.

    Miller called them out, yet again, and their reaction should have been to apologize and obey the basic rules.

    But we’re talking about folks who wanted to run in a third party before they were rejected, so I guess I’m expecting too much.

    Go Joe Miller!

  16. Estragon,

    It’s not OK for people to screw around with elections, in any way. Confidence in our elections is an important matter. That Murkowski’s people are screwing around, even if their rule breaking didn’t overtly change votes, is unacceptable.

    There are theories as to how this could lead to cheating (such as figuring out which ballots hadn’t been returned yet, obviously helpful for cheaters), but I suspect they just didn’t care what the rules were. This is the Murkowski campaign, and their entitlement attitude reeks.

    Miller called them out, yet again, and their reaction should have been to apologize and obey the basic rules.

    But we’re talking about folks who wanted to run in a third party before they were rejected, so I guess I’m expecting too much.

    Go Joe Miller!

  19. Although, Miller gained votes, Murkowski has over-performed by about 10% ! compared to her election day margin in the second batch (district 13-16).

  20. Although, Miller gained votes, Murkowski has over-performed by about 10% ! compared to her election day margin in the second batch (district 13-16).

  21. Thanks Stacy M.

    This recount is being watched by interested parties far and wide. North Georgia here.

    Many of us want Miller to win. The real excitement is to see how far Lisa M will go to remain ‘the chosen one’.

    What in hell ever happened to gracious loser?

  22. Hmmmm, I doubt Murky will get within 1,000 votes at this point. It looks like they already counted her strongholds.

    Someone should check on the applicable recount laws.

  23. Thanks Stacy M.

    This recount is being watched by interested parties far and wide. North Georgia here.

    Many of us want Miller to win. The real excitement is to see how far Lisa M will go to remain ‘the chosen one’.

    What in hell ever happened to gracious loser?

  24. Hmmmm, I doubt Murky will get within 1,000 votes at this point. It looks like they already counted her strongholds.

    Someone should check on the applicable recount laws.

  26. Thomas, I think Miller is looking OK. Those reports of him behind 30 points and then slightly ahead 4 minutes later are largely just evidence than the pollsters were wrong.

    I’m not claiming there won’t be legal disputes and nastiness. Murkowski is exactly the sort to ‘win’ that way.

  28. Thomas, I think Miller is looking OK. Those reports of him behind 30 points and then slightly ahead 4 minutes later are largely just evidence than the pollsters were wrong.

    I’m not claiming there won’t be legal disputes and nastiness. Murkowski is exactly the sort to ‘win’ that way.

  29. The revised bottom-line as per pbs60 @Swing State Project:

    The Anchorage Daily News reports this latest batch of new ballots was from Districts 13-16 — the Mat-Su Valley (Palinland). Miller won 62.12% of the vote in those districts on Election Day, but he only won 52.33% of the new ballots from those districts. With all of today’s ballots, Murkowski is now out-performing her Election Day numbers in all districts that have been counted today by 5.9%. If that were to continue in all districts across the state, she would need a total of 16,690 new ballots to be counted to pass Miller.

  30. The revised bottom-line as per pbs60 @Swing State Project:

    The Anchorage Daily News reports this latest batch of new ballots was from Districts 13-16 — the Mat-Su Valley (Palinland). Miller won 62.12% of the vote in those districts on Election Day, but he only won 52.33% of the new ballots from those districts. With all of today’s ballots, Murkowski is now out-performing her Election Day numbers in all districts that have been counted today by 5.9%. If that were to continue in all districts across the state, she would need a total of 16,690 new ballots to be counted to pass Miller.

  32. #8 – Thomas,
    …. and she’ll probably deliver a real beatdown to Miller on the “challenged” ballots.

    Does this mean the ‘challenged’ ballots are submitted by the ‘challenged’ voters? Does this mean the “IQ challenged” who have problems voting would go big time for Lisa?

    Just asking…

  33. #8 – Thomas,
    …. and she’ll probably deliver a real beatdown to Miller on the “challenged” ballots.

    Does this mean the ‘challenged’ ballots are submitted by the ‘challenged’ voters? Does this mean the “IQ challenged” who have problems voting would go big time for Lisa?

    Just asking…

  34. Over at Ace’s, a commenter says:

    “There is only a recount in AK, if it is less than .5% diff, which in this case is something like 200 votes.”

    It doesn’t seem likely that will happen, unless I’m misunderstanding the distribution of votes and the number of GOP primary ballots still in play.

  35. Over at Ace’s, a commenter says:

    “There is only a recount in AK, if it is less than .5% diff, which in this case is something like 200 votes.”

    It doesn’t seem likely that will happen, unless I’m misunderstanding the distribution of votes and the number of GOP primary ballots still in play.

  37. @>a href=”http://1.hidemyass.com/ip-1/encoded/Oi8va25hcHBzdGVyLmJsb2dzcG90LmNvbS8yMDEwLzA4L2Jha2VkLWFsYXNrYS5odG1s”>Thomas L. Knapp

    Wow, those are two stunning, non-CW predictions!

    You will be >i>at least half right!

  38. @>a href=”http://1.hidemyass.com/ip-1/encoded/Oi8va25hcHBzdGVyLmJsb2dzcG90LmNvbS8yMDEwLzA4L2Jha2VkLWFsYXNrYS5odG1s”>Thomas L. Knapp

    Wow, those are two stunning, non-CW predictions!

    You will be >i>at least half right!

  42. waylay,

    I don’t think the Libertarian Party prediction was particularly prescient. If it seemed to go against the conventional wisdom, well, I had the inside track of 14 years as an LP activist to inform that guess.

    As to Murkowski ultimately coming out on top, I admit that that’s non-CW and highly speculative, but it’s my best guess.

    Regards,
    Tom

  43. waylay,

    I don’t think the Libertarian Party prediction was particularly prescient. If it seemed to go against the conventional wisdom, well, I had the inside track of 14 years as an LP activist to inform that guess.

    As to Murkowski ultimately coming out on top, I admit that that’s non-CW and highly speculative, but it’s my best guess.

    Regards,
    Tom

  44. Wow, I see the “further accusations of shenanigans” by Dan Riehl is ACTUALLY the same old thing about the Murky volunteer accessing a computer from several days ago.

    Still, that’s pretty astute for someone from New Jersey. But I have to wonder if repeating the same thing over and over again makes it plural . . .

    ~~~~~~~~

    Jeff @#6 ~ If the truth hurts, try scrolling past my comments with your eyes covered and keep repeating “Neener neener neener” until you are safely back in the fantasy zone.

  45. Wow, I see the “further accusations of shenanigans” by Dan Riehl is ACTUALLY the same old thing about the Murky volunteer accessing a computer from several days ago.

    Still, that’s pretty astute for someone from New Jersey. But I have to wonder if repeating the same thing over and over again makes it plural . . .

    ~~~~~~~~

    Jeff @#6 ~ If the truth hurts, try scrolling past my comments with your eyes covered and keep repeating “Neener neener neener” until you are safely back in the fantasy zone.

  48. The issue to me wasn’t whether or not the Libertarians would take Murkowski… I’m not surprised that some of the idiots in the party’s core would go for the exposure of that, but the actual rank and file would never accept that.

    The issue for me was that Murkowski was willing to entertain this prospect. It violated her promise to back the GOP in the general, and it also violated basic honor.

    It’s a shame a lot of this stuff happened too late for the absentee voters (or even the conventional voters). If ‘too close to calls’ let to a complete new runoff election instead of recounts, Murkowski wouldn’t be acting like such an ass. I’m tired of people who take the mask off when they aren’t worried about what the little people think anymore.

    That stunt with the observer playing with election computers and then his blackberry was way over the line, and I suspect Murkowski would lose in a landslide today.

  49. The issue to me wasn’t whether or not the Libertarians would take Murkowski… I’m not surprised that some of the idiots in the party’s core would go for the exposure of that, but the actual rank and file would never accept that.

    The issue for me was that Murkowski was willing to entertain this prospect. It violated her promise to back the GOP in the general, and it also violated basic honor.

    It’s a shame a lot of this stuff happened too late for the absentee voters (or even the conventional voters). If ‘too close to calls’ let to a complete new runoff election instead of recounts, Murkowski wouldn’t be acting like such an ass. I’m tired of people who take the mask off when they aren’t worried about what the little people think anymore.

    That stunt with the observer playing with election computers and then his blackberry was way over the line, and I suspect Murkowski would lose in a landslide today.

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