Meanwhile, On the Campaign Trail … UPDATE: New Santorum Radio Ad in Iowa Hits Herman Cain for TARP Support UPDATE: No Mercy for Perrybots

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Reporters from The Times of London and The New Republic interview
J.D. Gordon, communications director for the Herman Cain campaign,
at the Pentagon City Costco in Arlington, Va., Friday Oct. 7

If nothing else, the “Occupy Wall Street” protests give the media a reason to ignore the GOP presidential campaign, and to avoid discussion of the increasing possibility that Herman Cain could be the Last Man Standing in the conservative grassroots battle to stop Mitt Romney from getting the nomination on the basis of the Republican Establishment’s “It’s His Turn” principle. “Sunshine State Sarah” has a nice round-up of Cain campign news today, and reminds me of something I wrote Friday:

You may have noticed that some of our Republican friends seemed to lose interest in the GOP nomination fight just about the time Rick Perry melted down and Herman Cain surged into contender status. These people are already making peace with the idea of Romney carrying the 2012 Republican banner.

There was a time, barely a month ago, when these friends of mine seemed to be convinced, and were trying to convince everybody else, that a Perry-Romney showdown for the nomination was a fait accompli, so that supporters of all the other candidates might as well pack it in and quit now. The collapse of the Perry bubble has embarrassed a lot of people, including those who accused Michelle Malkin of “bad faith” and lacking “intelligence and integrity.”

The Perrybots’ response to political demoralization has been a sort of Kübler-Ross grieving process and, while I’ve had occasion to point out that I predicted Perry’s collapse, I don’t blame the bandwagon-jumpers for thinking they were rolling to inevitable victory. It seemed logical, after all, that the Texas governor would be a strong voice for conservative values with the necessary skills, money and campaign organization to take on the brutally efficient Romney machine. We really can’t blame Perry’s supporters for the unfortunate fact that the candidate they supported turned out to be a doomed and useless dingbat.

A new Bloomberg/WaPo poll has the GOP race at Romney 24%, Cain 16%, Perry 13% and this is a result no one could have predicted a month ago. (Taegan Goddard notes that Jon Huntsman got zero support in this new poll.) Where the campaign stands now, and how Cain may fare in the weeks ahead, is the subject of my American Spectator column today:

People stood in line for more than an hour Friday at the Costco discount store in the Pentagon City complex of Arlington, Virginia, across the river from D.C. At the front of the line was the man they had come to see, who smiled and chatted cheerfully as he signed his autograph on the first page of his new book, This Is Herman Cain!
The exclamation point serves as a fitting symbol of the shock among the political class at how far Cain has come along the path described by his book’s subtitle: “My Journey to the White House.” The Atlanta businessman’s sharp rise in national polls since winning a Florida GOP straw poll on Sept. 24 has left pundits of all persuasions struggling to explain how a candidate so recently rated somewhere between “long shot” and “no chance” could have suddenly emerged as a contender. Even Cain — who has said all along that he was “in it to win it” — seems slightly surprised by how quickly he’s jumped to second place in the Republican field, edging past Texas Gov. Rick Perry and closing the gap with the front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Although he has “enjoyed a phenomenal surge within the last couple of weeks,” Cain told reporters after his Friday book signing, his campaign “has gradually built momentum” for several months. His stunning breakthrough last month in Orlando, where the Republican straw poll delegates gave him more votes than Perry and Romney combined, has kicked that slow-building momentum into overdrive. And the question now is whether he can sustain his surging momentum or whether Cain, who has never before held elected office, will become just another “flavor of the week” in the see-saw GOP campaign. . . .

Please read the whole thing. I’ve got more photos and videos to upload, and there’s more campaign news to share, but I’ll add that in updates.

UPDATE: One of the things I foreshadowed in this morning’s column was an expectation that Rick Santorum was ready to go on the attack against Cain:

The Pennsylvanian is one of the few Republican candidates who hasn’t yet gotten a “flavor of the week” moment and, with another round of debates Tuesday in Hanover, N.H., and Oct. 18 in Las Vegas, Santorum may be foremost among those looking to throw a few rhetorical punches toward the surging Cain.

And this afternoon came the news that Santorum has released a radio ad — with a $30,000 buy in Iowa — that includes a shot at Cain for supporting the 2008 TARP bailout. As the Washington Post‘s Aaron Blake says, Santorum thus “effectively becomes the first major candidate to attack Cain.”

Cain has said he knows he’s got a target on his back now, and we’ll see how well he handles it in the debates Tuesday (Hanover, N.H., on Bloomberg TV) and Oct. 18 in Las Vegas. I have previously remarked that Santorum has proven himself a “brutal counter-puncher in debates.” He has been bumping along in single digits in the polls, waiting for his shot, and talking to him Friday at the Values Voters Summit, I got the sense he was ready to make a move.

UPDATE II: Here are a couple of videos from Herman Cain’s book-signing event Friday in Arlington. First, I spotted some familiar faces in the line at Costco:

And here is Cain, after the book-signing and his Q&A with reporters, talking about his “phenomenal surge” in the campaign:

UPDATE III: The latest poll in New Hampshire puts Romney (of course) first at 38%, followed by Cain at 20% and Allahpundit describes how far Rick Perry has fallen:

Perry clocks in at four percent, tied for fifth with Huntsman behind Romney, Cain, Paul, and Gingrich at five percent. Four percent is also what he polled in last week’s WMUR survey of New Hampshire likely voters, so in case you were thinking of discarding that one as an outlier, think again. This guy is, for the moment, on life support in one of the big five early-primary states . . .

Allah goes to great lengths trying to imagine a comeback strategy for Perry, but . . . Dude. When your “conservative” Republican front-runner candidate is tied with Jon Huntsman, it’s over.

UPDATE IV: A commenter objects to my employing the phrase “useless dingbat” to describe Rick Perry. This required an explanation in the comments, which I’ll repeat up here for the benefit of anyone who might be curious:

“Useless dingbat” is a phrase borrowed from Hunter S. Thompson’s description of Ed Muskie in 1972. If you haven’t read Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72, you probably didn’t notice the parallels between Perry’s meltdown in the Orlando debate and Muskie’s infamous “Sunshine Special” debacle. But I noticed the parallel, and the idea of describing Perry in similar terms as Thompson described Muskie was inspired by that parallel.
Given how Perry’s supporters spent the first six weeks of his campaign personally savaging anyone who criticized Perry — including Michelle Malkin — I’m not in much of mood to hear pleas for mercy from Perrybots now that their candidate is doomed beyond hope of recovery.

I warned readers in early August of my concerns about the Perry campaign. Little notice was paid to my warning, while other blogs were urging everybody to jump on that $17 million bandwagon. So if the Perrybots are feeling butt-hurt now, that’s not my fault. You chumps need to go ask Erick Erickson why he didn’t warn you that Perry couldn’t debate his way out of a wet paper sack.

UPDATE V: Having mentioned my warnings, let’s take a stroll down memory lane, why don’t we? On Aug. 5 — the third day of my Iowa trip — I wrote:

Having Rick Perry’s potential campaign looming on the horizon casts a certain shadow over the proceedings here.

Perry’s supporters were running TV ads in Iowa in the run-up to the Ames Straw Poll, even though (a) Perry was not yet officially a candidate; and (b) Perry wasn’t participating in the straw poll.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? Who does a thing like that? Later that day (Aug. 5 was a Friday), I posted:

My phone just rang with a tip from a source who says his Texas sources tell him that Rick Perry is going to unofficially announce this weekend that he’s going to make an official announcement next week.

Which was pretty close to right: The “unofficial” word went out Monday, and the official announcement was . . . Saturday, Aug. 13, the same day as the Ames Straw Poll, a deliberate diss to Iowa and an attempt to upstage the other candidates already in the race.

Again: Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? Four days later (Tuesday, Aug. 9), I encountered “Americans for Perry” campaigning at what was supposed to be a Tim Pawlenty event:

Yeah, I know political journalists aren’t supposed to believe in “omens.” Still, there’s something vaguely . . . hinky about the way Perry’s stealth campaign has been operating here in Iowa.
Call me crazy. Attribute my forebodings of doom to irrational prejudice. Say what you will, and I don’t care, but I felt a need to put on the record my instinctive sense that there’s something fundamentally wrong about the Perry campaign. And if Jan. 20, 2013, brings the joyous inauguration of President Perry, then you can say my fears were mistaken. Yet I can’t shake my gut hunch is that it won’t work out that way. Some kind of catastrophe will result, one way or another.

And in response to a comment by Steven in TN, I explained:

There have been a few little things — including one source who says Perry has been on the wrong side of the eminent-domain issue — that lead me to think Perry is a lot less certain ultimately to win the nomination than some people seem to think. What I fear will happen is that Perry will spend several months sucking up media oxygen and burning through GOP donor cash, only to collapse early next year. This will have the effect of suffocating other conservative candidates, and thereby lead to … Romney 2012.
Understand, Steve: I’m not exactly anti-Perry. I got nothing against him personally or ideologically, and many of my Texas friends swear by the guy. But in my experience, when something looks too good to be true, it usually is. And there is a too-good-to-be-true vibe to this idea of “Perry to the Rescue.” Maybe my Jedi senses are wrong this time, but I’ve got a spooky bad feeling and I just can’t shake it.

I stuck by that prediction without apology, and on Aug. 28 — while Perry was building a huge lead on Romney in the polls — I re-iterated:

Go back to what first concerned me: Why would a Republican campaign go out of its way to “diss” the Iowa GOP in that manner? It is one thing for a candidate like Mitt Romney to de-emphasize Iowa, skip the straw poll and concentrate his efforts elsewhere. It was another thing — an unnecessarily provocative thing — for Perry’s campaign to deliberately upstage the Ames Straw Poll the way it did.
And who was the primary victim of that gesture? Michele Bachmann.
Bachmann won the straw poll, thereby destroying Tim Pawlenty’s campaign, but no sooner had the Republican 2012 herd been thinned by the culling of its weakest candidate — Pawlenty was always weak — than Perry jumped in and vaulted to the front of the pack. This put Perry ahead of other candidates who had spent many months criss-crossing the country and shaking hands with folks at county GOP events and hustling up contributions $50 and $100 at a time.
OK, fine. Congratulations to Team Perry on their Instant Front-Runner status. But I again repeat that I’m getting bad vibes about this development. When all is said and done, my early sense of foreboding will either be vindicated or discredited.

And I think we see which way matters are tending, eh? Perry stuck his thumb in Iowa’s eye, and it was the kind of bullying gesture that seemed to me so ill-advised as to raise serious doubts. There was more than that, though.

Before Perry ever got in the race, I had talked to an operative who had met Perry and worked with him in Texas. The operative said that (a) Perry was not a dynamic speaker, and (b) Perry was “uncomfortable in his own skin.” My source wasn’t very specific about what that last remark meant, but once the debates started, I could see what he was talking about.

And here’s the thing: My source was not anti-Perry. He liked the guy, but was being frank in expressing doubts as to whether Perry could make it at the presidential level.

The worst of it, though, was the godawful defensiveness of Perry’s supporters. For about six weeks there, anybody who criticized Perry got ripped to shreds because (so the Perry supporters had convinced themselves) Perry was the only alternative to Romney.

Ergo, if Bachmann hit Perry on the Gardasil thing, or if Santorum slammed Perry on immigration, Bachmann and Santorum were de facto Romney allies, and must be destroyed. All of that venom directed at Perry’s critics — including Streiff’s vicious attack on Michelle Malkin — did nothing to help Perry, however.

In fact, once Perry started freefalling, nothing could help him. So Perry’s defenders were just wasting their time and energy defending him, and the parallels to Ed Muskie’s startling collapse in 1972 were hard to ignore.

Watching Allahpundit trying to think up ways that Perry could possibly recover . . . Well, it’s painful, is what it is, because it’s not going to happen, and I think even Allahpundit knows that. Nevertheless, it’s good to see Team Perry finally start spending some of the millions they’ve collected to run TV ads attacking Mitt Romney:

Why did Team Perry wait nearly two months into their campaign to do this? If the argument for their candidate is “He Can Beat Mitt,” why not, y’know, start beating Mitt?

But never mind. I don’t know nothing about politics. And here’s some sad news for you Perrybots:

As poll numbers drop, Perry
pushed to side of debate stage

UPDATE VI: Ace continues his Kübler-Ross process:

I really hope Perry gets his act together and soon. There are debates scheduled for this week and next. With the primary schedule getting ever more condensed, it’s getting late pretty early for Perry.

Ace seems to be making the assumption that Cain can’t possibly go the distance and beat Romney. But nobody ever thought Cain would get this far, did they? Having covered Cain for 10 months, I’ve been hearing the “Cain can’t win” argument for 10 months. Maybe the people who keep saying “Cain can’t win” are right.

But Herman Cain just keeps on winning, doesn’t he?

61 comments

  3. Richard: Blogspot doesn’t “pingback” to WordPress. If you’ll e-mail me w CC to Smitty, that ought to do it. My apologies for the neglect.

  4. Useless dingbat?  Is that what you have reduced your criticism to?  Name calling like a card-carrying liberal?

    Here’s a suggestion:

    ask those veterans that fought for our nation and are now 100% disabled as a reward for their patriotism, if they think the fact that Governor Perry pushed for, and got legislation that ended their ad valorum taxes (taxes on homes, for the uninformed) makes him a useless dingbat.

    Ask the seniors, who have seen their property taxes remain low, when the Democrats were trying to end the Homestead exemption if they think Rick Perry is a useless dingbat.

    Ask those who spend money with Amazon, and other internet sites, if they think that Perry vetoing legislation that would made them pay sales tax if they think Perry was a useless dingbat for that veto.

    As all those doctors, that are fleeing to Texas, giving some of us in small towns a doctor, AND A HOSPITAL, for the first time in our lives because of Perry’s tort reform legislation if they think Perry is a useless dingbat.

    Then ask those Democrats, who sent in La Raza and ACORN, to register illegals so they could vote in Texas elections, how happy they are with our new Voter I.D. laws that will take effect prior to the 2012 elections.  I am sure they will agree with your assessment that Perry is a useless dingbat.

    Then tell me how many jobs have been created in your failed state and what the per person public debt is there.   And while you are at it, you can tell me what other border state governor has spent as much of his/her own states money to try to protect the border from drug cartel slugs.

  6. Just to let you know I have consistently linked to you when I do my rule 5 postings.  I understand the whole pingback situation.  God Bless all your efforts. 

  7. The TARP criticism of Cain is legitimate (in hindsight support of that was wrong but I understand while at the time people supported it).  Michelle Malkin was one of the most outspoken critics of it. 

    Did Rick Santorum speak out against TARP in 2008?  I checked and it turns out that Santorum did not speak out against TARP before the vote, but expressed reservations about it after it was done.  Okay, fair enough.  But unlike Michelle Malkin, he did not make a public statement condemning it before the vote (granted he was not a Senator then but then again neither was Michelle Malkin). 

    I do, however, remember Rick Santorum endorsing Arlen Spector over Toomey for the U.S. Senate in 2004.   I do not think Romney or Cain did so. 

  10. “Useless dingbat” is a phrase borrowed from Hunter S. Thompson’s description of Ed Muskie in 1972. If you haven’t read Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72, you probably didn’t notice the parallels between Perry’s meltdown in the Orlando debate and Muskie’s infamous “Sunshine Special” debacle. But I noticed the parallel, and the idea of describing Perry in similar terms as Thompson described Muskie was inspired by that parallel.

    Given how Perry’s supporters spent the first six weeks of his campaign personally savaging anyone who criticized Perry — including Michelle Malkin — I’m not in much of mood to hear pleas for mercy from Perrybots now that their candidate is doomed beyond hope of recovery.

  15. —–
    those who accused Michelle Malkin of “bad faith” and lacking “intelligence and integrity.”
    —–

    Lacking intelligence? No.

    “Lacking integrity” and “crazy as a shithouse rat,” however, often sport similar symptom sets, and Malkin clearly suffers from one or the other. You don’t get from her earlier commentary work  to Invasion and In Defense of Internment without breaking with one or both of two things — truth and reality.

  16. Considering the epidemic of explosive cranium failure that would result among those occupying (heh) the larboard side of the political spectrum, I think we can reasonably call that a…

    DEATH THREAT!!!

  17. I really don’t care if you took the phrase from War and Peace.  Is there anything that prevents you from voicing your opposition to a candidate without name calling? 

    I remember another meltdown, a lot more recent than ’72.  I remember a candidate that had basically lost his entire campaign staff and was dragging his own luggage through airports as he went from campaign stop to campaign stop.  My, my, that “useless dingbat” went on to win the nomination of his party in 2008.

    As to Michelle Malkin; I was not one who railed on her over her “Perry supports Sha’ria” bull, but she damn well deserved it.  Perhaps next time she won’t accept the rantings of a hyperventilating Pam Geller who sees radical Muslims under her bed.  Perhaps next time, Malkin will do her own research and learn that both the esteemed Danial Pipes, who is no slouch when it comes to radical Islam, and the Center for Security Policy, who actually wrote the book on Sha’ria in America, disagreed with Geller.  Or that the pro-Israel, Jewish centric Commentary Magazine disageed with Geller.

    Perrybot?  Excuse me?  I am not the one traipsing around the country following Herman Cain like an over grown groupie.  Instead, I choose to look into a candidate’s actual record, seeing what they did in the Congress, the Senate or in their state.   Oh, wait, Cain doesn’t have a record, not even as much as the disaster that currently resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.  I am also not looking to vote for the captain of the debate team.

    Look, if you are in the Cain corner, fine, that is your choice.  Say so and be done with it.  Hell, you don’t even have to give your reasons.  But there are those of us who are reeling from an inexperienced man in the White House and we have to think long and hard about doing that again, just because a guy has an (R) behind his name.

    Also, I see that it gains you nothing to be slamming other bloggers.  But then, perhaps my standards are higher than yours.

  21. I wouldn’t be using John McCain as an example, just saying. That doddering old fool was purposely promoted by the mainstream media as the chosen Republican candidate, precisely because he was a doddering old fool. Tim Russert especially comes to mind.

  22. I leaned Perry, myself, back in those halcyon days of September – ugh, what, about three weeks ago? – before I was mugged by the reality of watching Perry debate.

    The “Perry-bot” label came up only recently in response to the hyper-sensitivity of strong Perry supporters after their favored candidate started to implode. That label does not apply to all Perry supporters, even now.

    In theory, you’re not a Perry-bot because you’re a patient, sophisticated observer of politics who “choose[s] to look into a candidate’s actual record, seeing what they did in the Congress, the Senate or in their state.” Of course, we’d expect someone as mature as you to criticize RSM’s name-calling strictly on strategic grounds, yet inexplicably enough, you managed to get your panties in a bunch.

    As for Cain’s lack of a record in government, that’s a fair point.  

  23. actually, Cain is surging because of his honesty, just as Perry is falling because of his..honesty (you hear that you cold heartless b@stard), anyways, I prefer that Perry stays in Texas since he does such a wonderful job as the Texas President, ‘scuse me, as its governor (from the way he advertises, i forget the difference), besides it stops Dewcrist from getting a promotion.

  24. In 2008, it was possible to have been a strident anti-“progressive” corporatist, yet have been ambivalent about TARP. What’s important is one’s theory (and plans) for beginning the transition – as prudently as possible – from the edge of the progressive corporatist abyss to a more enlightened direction.    

  25. “Death: the passing or destruction of something inanimate .” 

    President Malkin would be the death of liberalism/progressivism. Hence, you’re right, that was a death threat!

  26. If Mr. Cain is so ‘honest,’ then he, of all people, should NOT have a problem with an audit of the Federal Reserve.

    So what’s his thought on that?  ‘Well, they audit themselves, so everything’s hunky-dory!’

    Sorry–I’m not a Paulista.  But why the Hell NOT audit the Fed and release the results to the public?  Cain covered himself with …..umnnnhhhh.l…….silliness when he made that remark.

  29. Herman Cain and Rick Perry are awful. Blame Fox News for giving you this shit field because they did their job trying to keep Palin out. We are stuck with a weak field full of crappy candidates.

  30. Actually, Tom, “In Defense of Internment” struck me as one of the bravest books ever written. For a long time, people had used the internment of Japanese nationals during WWII as the pluperfect example of a hysterical and essentially racist overreaction — an atrocity. But if you read Malkin’s book (as opposed to reading what people have written about her book) there were actually incidents in which Japanese nationals were engaged in espionage and subversion. The contempoary WWII arguments over internment, which Malkin recounted, are very enlightening as to how the subject was viewed at the time. And I think it was quite relevant to the arguments that followed 9/11.

    But whether you agree with her arguments or not, it’s hard not to admire the sheer guts it took Malkin to write a whole book attacking one of the pet myths of latter-day political correctness.

  31. AMANPOUR: … And it’s been — it’s been painted over. But the report raises questions about whether this rock, this stone, with that word on it, was still on display even quite recently in the last several years. What is your reaction to that?

    CAIN: My reaction is that is very insensitive…. And since Governor Perry has been going there for years to hunt, I think that it shows a lack of sensitivity for a long time of not taking that word off of that rock and renaming the place. It’s just basically a case of insensitivity.

    AMANPOUR: It was painted over.

    CAIN: Yes. It was painted over. But how long ago was it painted over? So I’m still saying that it is a sign of insensitivity.

  33. Stacy,

    I’ve read both of Malkin’s books.

    And no, writing them didn’t take “guts.” It took one of two things:

    1) Complete paranoid schizophrenic break with reality; or

    2) Venal willingness to cater to same to make a buck.

  34. My panties, as you put it, are not in a bunch. 

    I don’t slam other candidates by name calling.  If I have problems with any of them, and I do, it is based on their histories and their records.  Except with Cain, who has no record and anyone who is honest will admit that. 

    I’m not a Romney fan.  I see him doing the same dishonest things to Perry that he did to Guiliani and Huckabee.  Romney slammed Guiliani over New York City being a sanctuary city in a debate in Florida.  The very next day, the Boston Globe reported that Romney was working illegals for lawn care even though the Globe had reported the same thing, to Romney, a year earlier.  When Huckabee took a surprise win in the Iowa caucus on Jan. 3, 2008, Romney cut an ad that bashed Huckabee for Arkansas giving in-state tuition to illegals.  I researched Romney’s gubernatorial record in 2008, and didn’t like what I saw.  I have not changed my opinion of him.

    I am a political junkie.  And what I see is that everyone is basing their objections to Perry on his debate abilities.  And are now mocking him because his team says that he was tired the last time he debated.  Perhaps people should look at what he was doing that day.  In the air at dawn, flying over a county in Texas that had just lost over 1,500 homes to a 35,000 acre wild fire.  Visiting the families, in three counties, that had lost their homes.  Nah, no reason for him to be tired.  Maybe he should have just blown those families off and prepared for the debates, ya think?

    Bachmann I had problems with because she is a one issue candidate; Obamacare.  Santorum I have always liked, but lately he comes off as a petulent child who is not getting the attention he thinks he deserves.  I once heard Tom DeLay say that Ron Paul knew more about the Fed, and the financial machinations of the U.S. government than anyone in D.C., but he comes off as a loon with certain comments.  Newt is the smartest kid on the block, but has a tendency to wander away from home.  Huntsman and Gary Who? don’t interest me in the least.

    So who does that leave me?  Cain or Perry.  Cain is untested at a time when knowing exactly how a candidate will govern is really, really important.  And I am not sure that Cain is in it for the long haul and I get the feeling there is some agreement between Cain and Romney.  I know, it’s just a hunch, but I can’t shake it.   Call me silly if you want, but I want to know what I am getting and who (really) I am supporting.  Am I leaning toward Perry?  Yeah, and here’s why:

    tort reform in Texas
    Voter I.D. passed in Texas
    low public debt per citizen in Texas
    and last, but definately not least
    Perry lobbied for, and got, legislation that abolished the home owner taxes for veterans who suffer from 100% military related disabilities.  Anyone who care that much about our veterans is not all bad in my book.

    Now, if you want to slam me for not being star struck by any candidate, have at it.  But star stuck voters gave us Obama. 

  36. But anyway, back to the actual topic …

    … the fact that Cain is finally under attack, instead of being ignored or laughed at, is a marker of succcess. Like Gandhi said, “first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

    Whether he wins or not remains to be seen. I’m just not seeing it. I’m not a conservative, but I have to think that conservatives will have real problems with him as his actual positions come to light. So far he’s made it pretty much on gutsy first impression, but that free ride has ended.

    In late May of 2007, I publicly predicted (in comments on Hugh Hewitt’s blog, in response to a contest to predict when McCain’s campaign would shut down) that McCain would be the 2008 GOP nominee.

    It’s October of 2011, and I’m not nearly as sure about the 2012 nominee. But right now, if I had to take a guess, I’d guess Perry. I think Cain will have effectively knocked himself out or have been dragged down by the also-rans, by the time the Iowa caucus comes around. Perry wins or places a close second in the caucus. Romney wins New Hampshire but Perry does respectably well. Perry runs the table after that, except for Utah, Idaho and possibly Nevada.

  37. That’s something that bothered me.  One, the WaPo seems to be going out of its way to dig something, anything, up against Perry while it ignored Obama shady friends.  The nation knows more about Perry in a couple of months than we know about Obama in four years. 

    Cain seemed to not know that the Perry family didn’t own that property in his interview with Amanpour.  He seemed to actually know only what he was told on the interviews with Wallace and Amanpour.    Cain could have reponded two ways; said he didn’t know enough about the issue to comment on it yet, or say that Mr. Perry painted over the rock and that was the right thing to do.

    Cain played the race card.  And I have had enough of that from Obama and the Democrats.

  38. If Perry doesn’t pull his act together in time for the next debate, he’s toast. It doesn’t matter what his record is. In this day and age, a candidate has to be able to sell himself with the public. Perry comes across as a hayseed that just fell off the turnip truck and hasn’t quite figured out who or what he is yet. It might not be fair, but that’s the way it is. We aren’t living in Jefferson’s time where a man can get up in front of a crowd and mumble incoherently and expect no one to give a crap. In today’s age, presentation is everything. The sizzle sells the steak, to use an old phrase of the restaurant trade. If the only two people running for the nomination were Perry and Ron Paul, the GOP would be in a lot of trouble. I would vastly prefer Perry over Paul. But from what I’ve seen so far, I have no doubt that Paul could hold his own in a debate against Obama far better than Perry can. That should give cause for concern to even the most devoted of Perry-bots such as yourself.

  41. If you can set it up that the boys could just meet Christina Hendricks (Stacy and Smitty are married, not sure about Wombat) I suspect one time would do it. 

  42. The mass internment of Japanese on the West Coast was over blown in hindsight.  I read the book too.  To call the rejection of that “political correctness” is wrong.  It was a policy implemented by FDR and supported by liberal icons like Justice Douglas.   

    I can understand detaining Japanese nationals, but doing it to U.S. citizens, without any hearing or due process as to the actual threat they posed was wrong. 

    Yes of course there were actual incidents of Japanese Americans who were loyal to Japan.  But there were  actual incidents of German Americans who were loyal to the Fatherland.  But the actual number of individuals who were disloyal to the USA (German, Italian and Japanese) was very low. 

    We did not intern Japanese in Hawaii (too many to effectively do so).   And obviously Hawaii was very important in WWII, yet life went on.  Most of the Japanese who joined the Army who went to Italy came from Hawaii.   To prove their loyalty they fought hard and were one of the most decorated units in the Army. 

    But if you ever speak to Philippinos and Chinese about how Imperial Japanese occupation was like, you will discover a depth of resentment and hatred for the attrocities the Japanese did.   Michelle’s family fed her on a diet of Japanese resentment. 

  43. Romney will be more formidable than that.  He will do better than he did in 2008.  Whether that is enough to win remains to be seen.  I do not want to count Perry out completely, but he better do some amazing debate performances (and hope Romney has the flu or somethng)  if he expects to have a chance.

    Cain has to be smarter in dealing with the press.  If you are playing with rattlesnakes, you better  be paying attention.  I see that has his biggest weakness.  Romney is the opposite…too careful by a half. 

    If Rubio is serious about not being a VP, I see a Romney/Cain ticket. 

  45. If calling Perry’s rock insensitive is playing the race card, it’s not a very high ranking one, perhaps the deuce or trey at best.
     

  47. Leaving aside the propriety or decency of accusing Perry of “insensitivity” [ALERT***Liberal Code Word***ALERT], let alone the truth of the matter, it was a STUPID thing to do politically for a candidate for the Republican nomination.

    Previously he twice stuck his foot in his mouth over the “right” of a community to block a mosque and putting muslims in his cabinet.  These are all unforced errors, all coming when Herman Cain responded off the top of his head to a situation.  Shooting from the lip wins speaking invites for executives, but loses campaigns for politicians.

    For us considering the field for a prospective nominee, the worst fear is a candidate who will shoot himself in the foot and lose a prime opportunity to retake the White House – one we dare not pass up, for the sake of the country.

  48. Ah, yes, the Cain-obsessed spurned Palin stalker returns.  It’s heartening to know that after your crushing disappointment you can still find meaning in life, even if most of find it disturbing.

  49. Santorum might as well hit Cain – he was part of the gang-tackle on Perry and the attempt on Romney before that, and sometimes in a big field like this the only way to move up is to knock another guy down and step on him. 

    If TARP I is the best he’s got, it’s going to be a short attack.  That first installment was to provide emergency capitalization to institutions unable to meet the requirements under the insane “mark to market” rule once another federal blunder, the unleashing of a flood of subprime mortgage lending, had caused.  It did in fact stop a worldwide collapse of liquidity, and all the money given to banks for that purpose was repaid. 

    It’s hard to blame Cain for not foreseeing the misuse to buy out GM and Chrysler, and AFAIK he did not support TARP II, which was completely unnecessary and mainly frittered away by Obama.

  50. Remember when Moe Lane was the sane and reasonable one at RedState?

    Here he declares that he would have kept up the hourly ‘where’s Palin?’ posts for as many days as needed until her decision:

    http://www.redstate.com/jdaman/2011/10/10/day-by-day-cartoon-takes-a-shot-at-erick-erickson/#comment-18

    It’s sad and a bit frightening to see scorched-earth tactics like spamming being casually defended as reasonable to use AGAINST OUR OWN SIDE.
     
    I was so flabbergasted by his response that I still haven’t figured out how to respond.

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