by Smitty
The other major factor in whether or not Obama survives in office is the state of the economy. There are glints of light, indications it is getting a little better. But another set back in Europe could blow the US further off course. And whatever story of slight optimism the statistics tell, most Americans won’t be bathed in the glow of a feel-good factor.
My 2012 predictions, well, really only three:
1) Economy. Starting with late spring/early summer, the economic news thaws. The economy, itself, remains frozen in a block of ice, but the news thaws. By high summer, there is a lot of upbeat news. Some may be genuine. If you have some cash, and you really think BHO is OUT, then buying some stocks could be sensible. So the Dow will be up, a little. This will be touted as a Really Good Sign. Of course, the actual hiring of new workers, well, that won’t exactly be going on, but the last reports on jobs and the economy will be railed at the maximum favorable side of the margin for error. They always adjust them downward later, do they not?
2) Election. My crystal bollocks do not see an easy ride for Romney to the GOP nomination. In the first place, even though it sort of looks like the fix is in, behaving as though the fix is in may pop that fix right out. Romney has to appear to have earned the nomination. The Tea Party cannot and will not roll over for him, nor should he wish such. Mitt is going to have offer some detailed, specific assurances to conservatives to lure them to his banner. Buying Tim Pawlenty, Chris Christie, Christine O’Donnell and Ann Coulter, while good business, may not buy you as much as, say, Limbaugh, Levin, and Beck. We should know by Super Tuesday how things fare. It’s not clear whether Rick Santorum can play BHO to Romney’s Hilary Clinton (how is that for disparaging comparisons?) but I will be putting my money where my mouth is once I’m back to work.
Irrespective of the winner of the GOP nomination, conservatives do rally, push back upon the #Occupy weenies, and send BHO into a permanent golfing arrangement. If I’m wrong, you can have my crust of bread in the gulag.
3) CPAC. Stacy’s Rodney Dangerfield routine about listings and event panels reaches a crescendo, and Tabitha Hale goes all Jim Croce on him, Ron Paul wins the straw poll, and the network is still under-provisioned.
