Election 2014 BREAKING: GOP Wins Senate Majority, @AoSHQDD Says

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UPDATE 11 p.m. ET: Always trust the reliable source:

It’s a blowout, folks. A total Republican wave.

UPDATE 1 a.m. ET: Did I say “wave”? No, it’s a tsunami:

UPDATE 9 p.m. ET: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell crushed Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, apparently out-performing polls, perhaps signalling a “surge” for the GOP.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Republican Shelley Moore Capito defeats Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican Tom Cotton has defeated incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas, so that the GOP so far has a net gain of two seats, needing four more pickups to get to the magic number of 51 to control the Senate.

* * * PREVIOUSLY (4 p.m. ET) * * *

Allahpundit summarizes the likely Senate scenario:

Right now the GOP has 45 seats. You can go ahead and bump that up to 48 because three pick-ups are a fait accompli: Steve Daines will win big in Montana, replacing Max Baucus; Mike Rounds will cruise in South Dakota, replacing Tim Johnson; and Shelley Moore Capito will enjoy a landslide in West Virginia, replacing Jay Rockefeller. With those three in the bank, getting to 51 early in the evening should be easy, no? Tom Cotton’s going to beat Mark Pryor in Arkansas for number 49. Joni Ernst is probably going to beat Bruce Braley in Iowa for number 50. And then Cory Gardner’s going to put Mark Uterus out of his misery in Colorado — or I will take a flamethrower to this place — for number 51. There’s our majority! But wait: If Greg Orman knocks off Pat Roberts in Kansas, as he’s (slightly) favored to do, that knocks us back down to 50. What then?
Well, there’s always Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell is expected to beat Alison Lundergan Grimes. But McConnell is simply protecting his seat; that’s not a pick-up, so we’re still stuck at 50. Ditto for Georgia: Even if David Perdue avoids a runoff and beats Michelle Nunn outright tonight, he’s simply holding Saxby Chambliss’s seat. No pick-up there either. We could get back to 51 if either Thom Tillis beats Kay Hagan in North Carolina or Scott Brown beats Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, but the Democratic incumbents are favored in both races. Assuming they win, we’re still stuck at 50.

Read the whole thing. Without checking my archives, I can assure you that I predicted this basic scenario weeks ago. It’s weird to have ignored all the cable-TV pundit hype about the campaign during the past month, and then return to the subject on Election Day and find out, yeah, all that hype didn’t really change anything.

Here’s my gut hunch: About midnight Eastern time, the cable-TV talking heads will have the GOP at 48 or 49 Senate seats. Election junkies will stay awake until the wee hours and maybe — just maybe — the GOP will get to 50 seats by the time we crash out at 3 a.m. ET. By lunchtime Wednesday, about three of those 50 GOP seats will be within the range of a mandatory recount, and MSNBC talking heads will be screaming “vote fraud” (meaning somehow Republicans cheated) despite the fact that, as every liberal knows, there is no such thing as “vote fraud” (if that phrase means Democrats cheating).

So, while both parties will be scrambling squadrons of lawyers to the recount states, everything will ultimately come down to (a) the possible runoff in Georgia, and (b) the absolutely guaranteed runoff in Louisiana. At best, the Republican majority will be 52-48. At worst, Harry Reid’s Democrats will maintain control by the narrowest of margins, either 51-49 or else 50-50 with Joe Biden casting the deciding vote to keep the Majority Leader’s gavel in Harry’s hand.

All of that’s just gut-hunch stuff, of course.

We’ll see how my shoot-from-the-hip gonzo forecast holds up against the “expert” talking heads on cable TV who have spent the past month wasting their time (and ours) by telling us basically nothing.

UPDATE: The usual suspects, the usual message:

In a recent Democratic National Committee email, actress Scarlett Johansson said if Republicans win control of the Senate they will take away a woman’s right to choose. . . .
In fact, in August she designed a t-shirt on behalf of the abortion giant. As LifeNews previously reported, the pink t-shirt read, “Hey Politicians! The 1950s called …” on the front. And on the back, the shirts say: “They want their sexism back!”  . . .
An article in the Washington Examiner shares more about Johansson’s letter. The author, Ashe Schow, wrote the following:

“Despite the Left’s insistence that abortion is one of the few things women voters care about, the word “abortion” rarely makes it into their campaign ads. The reason abortion supporters call themselves “pro-choice” is that they’d rather not say the word. Abortion isn’t actually as popular as they would have you believe — it doesn’t poll well, and other than the first three months of pregnancy, large majorities of Americans think it should be illegal.
And so it is with a recent Democratic National Committee email sent on behalf of actor Scarlett Johansson (Black Widow from “The Avengers”), which claimed that if the GOP wins control of the Senate, they will take away “a woman’s right to choose.”
The email vaguely describes that choice as the ‘right to make her own personal health care decisions,’ but never says that the only decision they mean is abortion.

Experts predict a big win tonight for heteronormative patriarchy. And you know what that means? Prepare to be oppressed, ladies.

 

88 comments

  2. Why does everyone keep forgetting Louisiana? It probably won’t be decided tonight and will go to a runoff. Landrieu may be a political cockroach, but at some point her luck is going to run out, and this year is the year that it likely will.

  3. The LA runoff scenario makes no sense. If the Maness (Tea Party Republican) supporters do in Nov. what they’re telling the pollsters they’ll do in Dec., a choice they’ll surely have to make, they won’t have to suffer both national political machines and the national media despoiling their fair state. I have great respect for principled stands but deliberately inviting the entire prime time lineups of MSNBC and CNN to spend a month in their communities is just sick.

  5. South Carolina is going to go as predicted with Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott keeping their seats in the Senate and Nikki Haley winning by a landslide in the Governor’s race.

    I also believe all our conservative Reps will win out also. Pretty sure the only fly in the ointment, James Clyburn D, will probably keep his seat, too.

  6. Around me, I’ll be happy with a GOP legislative majority and Secretary of State.

    No way the bylined DFL operatives will let any Republican win Governor or Senate.

  9. And it Looks like McConnell will keep his seat in Kentucky according to Fox News.

    Lindsey Graham has kept his seat as predicted and so has Tim Scott.

  14. Looking very bad at the moment. It’s 8:22 and Tillis is down 53 to 44 with 27% in. Tillis has a pretty high wall to climb.

  22. The analysis leaves out Alaska, which is a strong GOP pickup opportunity. Alaska might not be called by the time the political junkies go to bed, but it likely will by the time people wake up tomorrow. Also Virginia is shockingly close, we could yet steal that seat.

  23. 9:36 and Brown is under water. Crist is down about 96K with 96% in. Tillis is still down about 9K right now with 67% in. NC is a nail biter.

  30. “(A)ctress Scarlett Johansson said if Republicans win control of the Senate they will take away a woman’s right to choose to murder their innocent children”

    FIFY

  31. Fox is projecting the GOP will retain control of the House (no surprise there) and will gain about 10 seats.

  33. Tillis up 52K votes with 90% in. On the other hand, Gillespie now trails Warner by 2.5K votes with 92% in, which looks bad because that’s the first time he’s trailed all evening.

  35. The low life, demented swine Harry Reid can pack his ill gotten gains and head back to Searchlight, Nevada. Good riddance, you filthy pig.

  36. Fox News calls Kansas for Roberts and the GOP! The last possible Senate pickup for the Democrats is now off the boards. The GOP will take the Senate if they take Virginia (not looking good), North Carolina (cautious optimism), Iowa (too early to tell), or Alaska (polls aren’t closed yet). Also Scott Brown is not conceding New Hampshire, hm.

  37. Harry Reid can now just go crumple in a corner and release his spores like the shriveled-up puffball he is.

    WHAT TIME IS IT??

    Time to be mean to the Republican party till they bleed American.

  40. Virginia is slipping away, but the question now is will Ernst take Iowa (330K votes, leading by 19K votes, 56% in) before Tillis takes North Carolina (1.3M votes, leading by 47K votes, 97% in) with Alaska and Louisiana as future pickup opportunities.

    I think 54 seats in the Senate will do just fine.

  41. Illinois governor Quinn’s “Rauner won’t let fags redefine marriage” message failed and now a Republican governor has taken Obama’s home state. Holy smokes!

  44. Why are feminists so obsessed with sandwiches, I asked myself. It doesn’t make sense; like many men, I’m better at it than them. Then it hit me: it’s a proxy. I’ll make myself sandwiches for dinner or even breakfast, but it’s an iconic lunch food.

    They’re not against sandwiches per se, as you can tell from their girths. They just don’t want to enable a man to bust his ass so they can stay home with the kids, because procreating and being provisioned is oppression.

    SAHMs are slaves. That’s the point of their premature objection to a form of food service that they suck at.

  45. When folks start going on about “reproductive rights”, I’ve taken to asking them if that means they also support free fertility and IVF treatments.

    I’m sure you can all imagine the answers I get. 8)

  47. Shall we expect sammich-making classes from the heteronormative patriarchy, together with spelling lessons so everyone knows how to spell sammich?

  48. Close, but Scott wins it. But…

    Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Alcee Hastings, Alan Grayson. A testimony to the brainless psychotics living in certain districts…

    Raaaalph….raaaaalph…raaaaalph…[pause for breath]…raaaalph……raaaalph…..raaaalph…

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