Category: Mitch McConnell

People Never Ask Me for Advice

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My brother Kirby and I had just finished eating lunch at Primanti Brothers and were enjoying a post-prandial smoke when, for no apparent reason, he brought up the subject of the New England Patriots. But why bring it up? This is obviously a painful topic for me to think about, especially after The Dumbest Play in NFL History.

Anyway, so Kirby was sermonizing on the subject of what Patriots owner Robert Kraft should do — i.e., give Bill Belichick an ultimatum to get rid of Matt Patricia, who is hated by New England fans like God hates sin — until finally I interrupted: “You know why I don’t think in terms of what people should do? Because nobody ever asks for my advice.”

In writing about politics, I try to avoid being one of those dime-a-dozen pundit types who presumes to offer election strategy or policy guidance. If politicians want my advice, they can pay me for it, and as no Republican has offered to hire me to be the right-wing James Carville, it’s safe to assume that any advice I offered — unsolicited, as a voluntary contribution — would be ignored. So what’s the point?

And it’s the same thing with the Patriots. Every sports talk-radio personality in New England is calling for Matt Patricia’s scalp, so what’s the point of adding my voice to this deafening chorus? Like, last night I was watching Greg Bedard and Nick Cattles discussing this disaster, and Nick is talking about a situation where the Patriots had the ball first-and-goal at the Raiders one-yard-line, saying that there were six-year-old children shouting at their TVs: “Give the ball to Rhamondre!”

Exactly — everybody can see what’s wrong with the Patriots, and they’re shouting it from the rooftops, with no apparent impact on the situation.

Politics is the same way. Like, WTF, Mitch McConnell?

Helping Ukraine is our Number One priority? Are you kidding me with this? As much as I want Ukraine to defeat the Russian invaders, that’s probably not even a Top Five issue for me, in the grand scheme of what the Republican Party needs to prioritize. And I can’t believe the voters of Kentucky — you know, the people who actually elected Mitch McConnell to the Senate — share his sense of priorities. But again, what’s the point of complaining? Ace of Spades, who has a lot more readers than me, has been hammering Mitch McConnell five days a week, and is running out of new ways to say the same basic thing: “Mitch, you bitch.”

The more you care about politics, the harder it becomes to escape feelings of helpless despair, a sense of futility caused by your inability to influence events, because nobody seems to be listening. You understand what Ecclesiates is getting at: “Vanity of vanities! All is vanity!”

It’s not just politics and football that cause wise men to decry the carnival of folly to which we bear unwilling witness. Every day, people are ruining their own lives by doing foolish things, which is why I feel compelled to offer my kids advice like, “Heroin is a bad drug. Stay away from heroin.” Or, “Don’t send people pictures of your penis.” Stuff like this should be obvious, and yet there are apparently people who didn’t get the memo, so I feel an obligation to warn my kids against such behavior.

If the world was organized on a basis of what I think people should do (and not do), we certainly wouldn’t be in the mess we’re in. Last night, Tucker Carlson interviewed a woman named Camille Keifel who has filed a lawsuit against the people who inflicted a double mastectomy on her as “treatment” for her “gender” problem. And I turned it off because it was too painful to watch, like the last play of the Patriots game.

Young women experiencing “gender” issues don’t solicit my advice on their problems, of course, but just imagine if they did.

“What do you think, Mr. McCain? Should I start injecting myself with testosterone and get my breasts amputated?”

ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME WITH THIS?

Nevertheless, there are licensed medical professionals who think this kind of “treatment” is a splendid solution to “gender” problems, and who are getting paid to butcher confused young people like this, and if you question the wisdom of such procedures, they’ll accuse you of hate.

Thousands of people are being chemically altered and surgically mutilated the way Camille Keifel was, and this is even being done with taxpayer money in some cases, but no one can be allowed to object — Libs of TikTok got banned — because criticizing “gender treatment” is considered dangerous hate speech. But of course, I don’t hate people or wish harm to befall them. Except maybe Matt Patricia, but even in his case, if he got murdered by an enraged Patriots fan, I’d consider that to be . . . unfortunate. Certainly I would never advocate or endorse criminal violence against Matt Patricia, and if a gang of deranged season-ticket holders were to kidnap him, murder him with a chainsaw and grind up his dismembered corpse in a wood chipper, then feed the remains to a pack of hungry pitbulls . . . Well, as I say, this would be unfortunate.

However, the world is not organized according to my preferences, and nobody ever listens to my advice, or else on first-and-goal, Matt Patricia would have called Rhamondre left, and if that didn’t work, he’d have called Rhamondre right on second down, followed by Rhamondre up the middle on third down. If they end up settling for a field goal on fourth down, OK, but I completely agree with that six-year-old kid shouting at his TV: “Give the ball to Rhamondre!”

They don’t ask for my advice, so we’ll keep spending billions on Ukraine, women will keep getting mutilated as “gender treatment,” and the Patriots will keep losing football games until, inevitably, Matt Patricia gets kidnapped by a gang of chainsaw-wielding season-ticket holders.

It’s just so . . . unfortunate.



 

$3.5 Trillion = Zero-Point-Zero Dollars?

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Look, I’m no expert in math, but you’re never going to convince me that the cost of a $3.5 trillion legislative package is zero:

In recent weeks, the Biden administration has been slammed for claiming the $3.5 budget reconciliation packages “costs zero dollars.”
On Monday, the president said once again that the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill as well as reconciliation are both somehow paid for.
Hours later, during her daily press briefing, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki made a similar point when pressed on whether the president admitted the bill didn’t cost zero when he said it would be less than he initially proposed.
“What we’re talking about is how much the top line investments are — which are all paid for,” Psaki said, referencing the $3.5 price tag. “So therefore, it costs zero, no matter what the cost or size of the top line investments are, we have ways to pay for it.”
Psaki added that the plan will be paid for by asking corporations and people of the highest incomes to “cover the cost of these necessary investments” through higher tax rates.
When asked one more time if the reconciliation budget costs zero dollars, Psaki admitted “the plan costs nothing for the American people who make less than $400,000.”

“Necessary investments” = a flaming dumpster full of socialist crap.

The speech that Biden read from his TelePrompter today was a gigantic stack of lies, which could not deceive anyone with the most rudimentary understanding of congressional procedure and the federal budget. Biden (or rather, his speechwriters) insisted that Republicans are to blame for Congress failing to raise the debt ceiling. In fact, Democrats could do this without a single GOP vote, using the same “reconciliation process” they’re trying to use to ram their $3.5 trillion — excuse me, I actually meant to say, zero dollar — spending package through Congress.

Mitch McConnell has made this clear, and he’s got the Republican Senate caucus lined up in solidarity, so that even the weakest RINOs aren’t flinching in the face of criticism from Biden, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and all their media henchpeople. Cocaine Mitch to Sleepy Joe:

“Dear President Biden:
“For many years, our working relationship has been defined not only by our strong disagreements, but also by mutual transparency and respectful candor. I write in that spirit to express concern that our nation is sleepwalking toward significant and avoidable danger because of confusion and inaction from the Speaker of the House and the Senate Democratic Leader concerning basic governing duties.
“Since mid-July, Republicans have clearly stated that Democrats will need to raise the debt limit on their own. All year, your party has chosen to pursue staggering, “transformational” spending through unprecedented use of the party-line reconciliation process. Democrats inherited bipartisan trends from COVID relief to appropriations but have chosen to govern alone. Even now, with Americans already facing painful inflation, Democrats are preparing another staggering taxing and spending spree without any Republican input or support.
“Bipartisanship is not a light switch that Speaker Pelosi and Leader Schumer may flip on to borrow money and flip off to spend it. Republicans’ position is simple. We have no list of demands. For two and a half months, we have simply warned that since your party wishes to govern alone, it must handle the debt limit alone as well.
“As you and I know from shared Senate experience, this is not unusual. The debt limit is often a partisan vote during times of unified government. In 2003, 2004, and 2006, Mr. President, you joined Senate Democrats in opposing debt limit increases and made Republicans do it ourselves. You explained on the Senate floor that your ‘no’ votes did not mean you wanted the majority to let the country default, but rather that the President’s party had to take responsibility for a policy agenda which you opposed. Your view then is our view now.
“There is one difference between then and now: Leader Schumer requested and won new powers to repeatedly reuse the fast-track, party-line reconciliation process. As a result, Senate Democrats do not need Republican cooperation in any shape or form to do their job. Democrats do not need our consent to set a vote at 51 instead of 60. Nonpartisan experts confirm that Senate Democrats have every necessary tool to pass a standalone debt limit increase through reconciliation and enough time to do it before late October. As I have warned for months, this is the path they will need to take.
“Congressional Democrats have wasted weeks complaining that this relatively brief process would inconvenience their floor schedules. Mr. President, as you know as a Senate veteran, that is not an excuse; it is just a complaint. Republicans will not build Speaker Pelosi and Leader Schumer a shortcut around procedural hurdles they can clear on their own so they have a more convenient path to jam us with a partisan taxing and spending spree.
“Mr. President, I have relayed this reality to your Democratic lieutenants for two and a half months. My concern for our country is that Leader Schumer and Speaker Pelosi have done nothing. Either the Democratic leaders simply cannot govern or they would rather play chicken with the U.S. economy than accept reality.
“Your Democratic majorities have no plan of their own to avoid default. On Thursday, we narrowly avoided a shutdown by a few hours because Senate Democrats wasted weeks on theatrics before accepting reality. The American people cannot afford the same rudderless drift toward danger with respect to the full faith and credit of our nation.
“Mr. President, I respectfully submit that it is time for you to engage directly with congressional Democrats on this matter. Your lieutenants in Congress must understand that you do not want your unified Democratic government to sleepwalk toward an avoidable catastrophe when they have had nearly three months’ notice to do their job.”

Translation: “You’re on your own, pal.”




 

Nancy Pelosi Blocks $1.8 Trillion #Coronavirus Bill. Why? Abortion!

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This is absolutely stunning: An emergency stimulus bill, intended to prevent mass bankruptcies caused by quarantine measures necessary to fight the Chinese virus, has been blocked by House Democrats, because it does not include a bailout for Planned Parenthood. Quite understandably, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is livid:

“The American people are watching this spectacle,” McConnell said. “I’m told the futures market is down 5%. I’m also told that that’s when trading stops. So the notion that we have time to play games here with the American economy and the American people is utterly absurd.”

Read the whole thing, or watch the video:




 

Senate Votes 51-49 Against Witnesses; Impeachment Circus Will End Wednesday

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Our long national nightmare will soon be over:

Senators defeated a last-ditch effort by Democrats to call witnesses in the impeachment trial of President Trump Friday evening, then approved a final schedule that will force a vote Wednesday on Mr. Trump’s fate.
That means the president will deliver his State of the Union address Tuesday while still under the cloud of impeachment, but will almost certainly be acquitted the next day.
In a series of votes, Republicans blocked Sen. Charles E. Schumer’s attempt to get former National Security Adviser John R. Bolton to testify. The GOP also shot down an attempt by Democrats to outsource all witness decisions to Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., who has been presiding over the trial but not playing an active role in decision.
After defeating those motions, the Senate adopted its final schedule on a 53-47 vote.
Under the new rules, the chamber has adjourned until Monday, when it will return to hear final arguments from the House Democrats prosecuting the case, and from the president’s defense team.
The trial will then take a break Tuesday, giving Mr. Trump space to deliver his speech from the House chamber that night. Then the trial will reconvene Wednesday at 4 p.m., when a final vote on both articles of impeachment will occur.

(Hat-tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.) There was never really any chance that Trump would be removed from office, which would take 67 senators voting to convict. Nancy Pelosi knew that when she gave Adam Schiff the green light to commence this partisan witch-hunt in September. From the beginning, Schiff’s investigation was compromised by the fact alleged “whistleblower,” Eric Ciaramella, had no direct knowledge of the July 25 phone call at the center of the Ukraine (non-)scandal. Ciaramella is a Deep State protégé of John Brennan, and a known Biden supporter, while Ciaramella’s former NSC colleague Sean Misko, “joined Schiff’s committee staff in August, the same month the whistleblower submitted his complaint.” Whatever your opinion of Trump’s Ukraine policy, the Schiff investigation looked like a subversive plot against the president organized by a cabal of Democrat operatives.

Republican senators recognized this; the real question was whether such deliberate sabotage of the administration was acceptable. And thanks to “Cocaine Mitch,” the answer is, hell no. Exit quote:

“You know what I believe about all of this? It was a bunch of partisan bullshit in the House. It continued in the Senate. It’s gonna end Wednesday, the president’s gonna get acquitted, this is all gonna blow up in their face.”

You tell ’em, Lindsey.




 

Mitch the Ninja Turtle Will Force Democrats to Vote on Their Own Plan

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Amateur hour in the House Democrat majority — the blundering overreach of freshman Rep. Alexandra Ocasio Cortez — gives Senate Republicans a chance to pounce and seize, so to speak:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday that the Senate would vote on the Green New Deal introduced last week by Sen. Edward Markey, D-Mass., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.
“I’ve noted with great interest the Green New Deal, and we’re going to be voting on that in the Senate to give everybody an opportunity to go on record,” McConnell told reporters.
The proposal, which is not expected to pass the Republican-dominated upper chamber, could force some Democrats to make a politically awkward calculation.
Democratic liberals, including all of the senators currently running for president, have come out in support of the legislation, which calls for generating 100 percent of the nation’s power from renewable sources within 10 years. . . .
Democratic moderates have been less than enthusiastic about the proposal. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi derisively referred to the House version of the resolution as a “green dream,” while only 11 of the 47 senators who caucus with the Democrats have signed on as sponsors.

(Hat-tip: Instapundit.) The clumsy attempt by Democrats to distance themselves from the crazy “Green New Deal” FAQ that has now been removed from Ocasio-Cortez’s website showed how the party’s brash young socialist celebrity was Not Ready for Prime Time. Even so eminent a progressive as Jonathan Chait has admitted that the problem with the proposal was not a “botched” roll-out, as some Democrats have claimed, but simply that the plan is a bad idea. And now McConnell, shrewd tactician that he is, will force Senate Democrats to vote on this idea.

In 2020, Democrats will be defending Senate seats in Alabama, Colorado, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia. Does anyone suppose that “swing” voters in those states would vote for candidates who have endorsed Ocasio-Cortez’s wacky radical scheme?

Assuming that all 53 Republicans vote “no” on this idea, how many Senate Democrats does Mitch need to get to vote “no” in order to make the plan a loser by a 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 margin? Because no fewer than five senators expected to seek the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination — Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) — have endorsed the Ocasio-Cortez plan, what does this suggest the Democrat primary battle looming ahead? The televised debates will be a lunatic carnival of left-wing extremism, which will make it easy for President Trump and the Republicans to play the part of common-sense grown-ups in the upcoming campaign. Wanna buy some popcorn?



 

The Incorruptible Roy Moore Wins

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No man in American political life has suffered more than Roy Moore for his devotion to firm principle. He was harassed by the ACLU, purged from his office as chief justice of the state Supreme Court, and suspended again after he successfully campaigned for re-election. All of this he suffered because of his belief that human law ought to be in accord with God’s law, or otherwise is invalid. You may not share that belief, but Moore’s unwavering commitment marks him as incorruptible, a rare quality in an age when we see Republicans in Washington abandoning their campaign promises, and even forsaking their party platform, in misguided efforts to curry favor with the liberal media.

A well-scarred veteran of the Culture Wars, a former Army captain and a kickboxing champion, Roy Moore won a big battle Tuesday:

Roy S. Moore, a firebrand former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, overcame efforts by top Republicans to rescue his rival, Senator Luther Strange, soundly defeating him on Tuesday in a special primary runoff.
The outcome in the closely watched Senate race dealt a humbling blow to President Trump and other party leaders days after the president pleaded with voters in the state to back Mr. Strange.
Propelled by the stalwart support of his fellow evangelical Christians, Mr. Moore survived an advertising onslaught of more than $10 million financed by allies of Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader. His victory demonstrated in stark terms the limits of Mr. Trump’s clout.
Taking the stage after a solo rendition of “How Great Thou Art,” an exultant Mr. Moore said he had “never prayed to win this campaign,” only putting his political fate “in the hands of the Almighty.”
“Together, we can make America great,” he said, borrowing Mr. Trump’s slogan and adding, “Don’t let anybody in the press think that because he supported my opponent that I do not support him.”

(Via Memeorandum.) This was a humiliating defeat for Mitch McConnell and the Republican establishment in Washington, and the fact that Alabama’s evangelical Christians were not swayed even by Trump’s campaigning for Moore’s opponent is remarkable. Moore’s willingness to forgive Trump is itself testament to his character as a Christian and as a gentleman, who understands the nature of political combat.

John Nolte of Breitbart.com explains the national dynamic:

With the results now clear in Alabama’s hotly-contested U.S. Senate Republican primary race, the unambiguous message coming from the GOP voters responsible for Roy Moore’s underdog victory is clear-cut — a crucial reminder to everyone that Trumpism is not about any one person.
More importantly, what this humiliating loss tells President Trump is that Trumpism is not even about him. The indisputable lesson here for the president is that even he, the man who started the movement, is not bigger than the promises, ideas, agenda, and platform he ran on.

(Hat-tip: Instapundit.) This is arguably true, although Nolte overlooks the fact that conservative evangelicals, in general, have been reluctant Trump supporters. In the GOP primaries, Ted Cruz was the main candidate of the Christian Right, who did not approve of Trump’s offensive language and behavior. Nevertheless, when it came to a choice between Trump and Hillary Clinton, conservative Christians knew which side they were on. If they didn’t, Hillary’s campaign reminded them.

Alabama was one of 31 states where voters approved constitutional amendments declaring marriage a union of one man and one woman, prior to the 2015 Obergefell ruling, which invoked the Fourteenth Amendment to say otherwise (as if this was what those who ratified that amendment, circa 1868, had in mind). Among the states which voted to protect traditional marriage was California, where the Proposition 8 campaign exposed the viciousness of the Gay Left. My November 2008 American Spectator column “Gay Rights, Gay Rage” began thus:

Before he was purged from the bench, former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore made a remarkable and lamentably unappreciated contribution to American jurisprudence.
Concurring in the 2002 case of Ex Parte H.H., a custody dispute involving a lesbian mother, Moore demonstrated that homosexuality had no protected status in the Anglo-American common-law tradition, that indeed such behavior had been proscribed for centuries as “a crime against nature,” and that Alabama courts had consistently condemned homosexual acts as “illegal under the laws of this state and immoral in the eyes of most of its citizens.”
One does not have to share this abhorrence of homosexuality to agree that Moore’s concurrence — copiously studded with court precedents and citations of Blackstone’s Commentaries, 16th-century British jurist Sir Christopher Wray and even the Justinian Code — accurately summarized the legal foundation of the case against gay rights.
Moore’s 7,000-word treatise came to mind last week when gay activists began targeting sponsors of Proposition 8, the successful ballot initiative that amended the California state constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage. Taking to the streets in furious indignation, activists created an “enemies list” of those who had contributed to support the measure, targeting them for boycotts and protests. . . .

You can read the whole thing and, furthermore, Judge Moore’s concurring opinion in Ex Parte H.H. is still available online. The disastrous consequences of America abandoning its Christian heritage are insufficiently understood, even by most Christian conservatives:

If you read Justice Antonin Scalia’s dissent in the 2003 Lawrence v. Texas decision, it was apparent at the time that the majority’s “Emerging Awareness” Doctrine would have far-reaching effects in law, society and culture. These effects were not entirely predictable, because Lawrence amounted to a repudiation of many centuries of Anglo-American common law precedent. With this decision, America was setting sail into uncharted waters, voyaging toward that part of the ancient map marked “Here Be Dragons.” . . .

You can read the rest of that. My point is that too many Republicans have become so afraid of the accusation of “homophobia” that they are unwilling to examine the underlying principle which was at stake in Lawrence. If you didn’t know better, you might imagine that the United States was, prior to Lawrence, a nightmare regime akin to Iran as far as the safety of homosexuals was concerned. Democrats would have us believe that Christian conservatives are like ISIS throwing gay men off roofs, and the typical CNN viewer probably thinks Alabama is the Worst Place in the World to Be Gay. Yet the reality is that gay people in Alabama are generally unharmed by “homophobia” and, as I recall from my college days at Jacksonville (Ala.) State University, gays and lesbians didn’t exactly live in a state of fear back then. Who could forget the flamboyantly gay black man who served dinner at the university cafeteria, or the butch lesbians who played on the school’s athletic teams? Certainly, as a student in the drama department, I was aware of how many homosexuals there were among my fellow students, and if any of them were thrown off roofs, I somehow missed it.

What theses recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions — Lawrence in 2003, Windsor in 2013 and Obergefell in 2015 — have done is to reverse many centuries of legal precedent, and to establish (as is now becoming increasingly clear) the exact opposite of the status quo ante. Whereas before these decisions, homosexual behavior was under legal sanction, now we find that “homophobia” is so strictly forbidden in elite opinion (including judicial opinion) that people are losing their jobs and businesses because of their mere disapproval of homosexuality.

Whether or not Judge Moore foresaw all these consequences 15 years ago, he nevertheless had the courage to defend our national heritage — including the British common law tradition — against those radical forces who have since become generally known as “social justice warriors.”

 

There is yet hope to “Make America Great Again,” and Judge Roy Moore’s victory proves that many Americans still believe in that hope.



 

#WAR!

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Today’s vote in the Senate drew furious scorn in a statement from grassroots conservative activist Becky Gerritson:

I along with millions of conservatives around the country are furious with the Republicans’ surrender in the Senate today! We listened to Republican promises to curb spending, restore our liberties and stop President Obama’s illegal executive orders regarding immigration. We helped them win the Senate in November; giving them the largest majority in the House and Senate since WWII. Hopes were high.
However, instead of seizing the power they had been given by the voters, Republican leaders have timidly continued business as usual. In December, kowtowing to Democrat spin on shutting down the government, they passed a trillion dollar spending bill with the promise that in February they would stop President Obama’s illegal executive amnesty with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill.
But now, as the deadline for funding DHS approaches and the Democrats have filibustered (four times) a bill that would fund DHS except for Obama’s Illegal Amnesty, the Republicans are again showing their lack of resolve. Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, has revealed his feckless leadership and instead of holding the line on defunding executive amnesty, he is offering a “clean bill” to the Democrats on a silver platter. They are holding all the cards and yet they are folding!
According to exit polls, 75% of Americans reject Obama’s executive action. So Republican leadership didn’t merely let down their party, they abandoned their country. Whether Mitch McConnell’s feeble stewardship is due to cowardice or complicity, he has embarrassed and weakened his office, his party and our nation.
Becky Gerritson
President, Wetumpka TEA Party (AL)
“Born Free American Woman”–Congressional Testimony
www.WetumpkaTeaParty.com
www.BornFreeAmericanWoman.com

Some people you can walk over and live to tell about it. But you don’t do that to people from Wetumpka, Alabama.

 

Election 2014 BREAKING: GOP Wins Senate Majority, @AoSHQDD Says

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UPDATE 11 p.m. ET: Always trust the reliable source:

It’s a blowout, folks. A total Republican wave.

UPDATE 1 a.m. ET: Did I say “wave”? No, it’s a tsunami:

UPDATE 9 p.m. ET: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell crushed Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, apparently out-performing polls, perhaps signalling a “surge” for the GOP.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Republican Shelley Moore Capito defeats Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican Tom Cotton has defeated incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas, so that the GOP so far has a net gain of two seats, needing four more pickups to get to the magic number of 51 to control the Senate.

* * * PREVIOUSLY (4 p.m. ET) * * *

Allahpundit summarizes the likely Senate scenario:

Right now the GOP has 45 seats. You can go ahead and bump that up to 48 because three pick-ups are a fait accompli: Steve Daines will win big in Montana, replacing Max Baucus; Mike Rounds will cruise in South Dakota, replacing Tim Johnson; and Shelley Moore Capito will enjoy a landslide in West Virginia, replacing Jay Rockefeller. With those three in the bank, getting to 51 early in the evening should be easy, no? Tom Cotton’s going to beat Mark Pryor in Arkansas for number 49. Joni Ernst is probably going to beat Bruce Braley in Iowa for number 50. And then Cory Gardner’s going to put Mark Uterus out of his misery in Colorado — or I will take a flamethrower to this place — for number 51. There’s our majority! But wait: If Greg Orman knocks off Pat Roberts in Kansas, as he’s (slightly) favored to do, that knocks us back down to 50. What then?
Well, there’s always Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell is expected to beat Alison Lundergan Grimes. But McConnell is simply protecting his seat; that’s not a pick-up, so we’re still stuck at 50. Ditto for Georgia: Even if David Perdue avoids a runoff and beats Michelle Nunn outright tonight, he’s simply holding Saxby Chambliss’s seat. No pick-up there either. We could get back to 51 if either Thom Tillis beats Kay Hagan in North Carolina or Scott Brown beats Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, but the Democratic incumbents are favored in both races. Assuming they win, we’re still stuck at 50.

Read the whole thing. Without checking my archives, I can assure you that I predicted this basic scenario weeks ago. It’s weird to have ignored all the cable-TV pundit hype about the campaign during the past month, and then return to the subject on Election Day and find out, yeah, all that hype didn’t really change anything.

Here’s my gut hunch: About midnight Eastern time, the cable-TV talking heads will have the GOP at 48 or 49 Senate seats. Election junkies will stay awake until the wee hours and maybe — just maybe — the GOP will get to 50 seats by the time we crash out at 3 a.m. ET. By lunchtime Wednesday, about three of those 50 GOP seats will be within the range of a mandatory recount, and MSNBC talking heads will be screaming “vote fraud” (meaning somehow Republicans cheated) despite the fact that, as every liberal knows, there is no such thing as “vote fraud” (if that phrase means Democrats cheating).

So, while both parties will be scrambling squadrons of lawyers to the recount states, everything will ultimately come down to (a) the possible runoff in Georgia, and (b) the absolutely guaranteed runoff in Louisiana. At best, the Republican majority will be 52-48. At worst, Harry Reid’s Democrats will maintain control by the narrowest of margins, either 51-49 or else 50-50 with Joe Biden casting the deciding vote to keep the Majority Leader’s gavel in Harry’s hand.

All of that’s just gut-hunch stuff, of course.

We’ll see how my shoot-from-the-hip gonzo forecast holds up against the “expert” talking heads on cable TV who have spent the past month wasting their time (and ours) by telling us basically nothing.

UPDATE: The usual suspects, the usual message:

In a recent Democratic National Committee email, actress Scarlett Johansson said if Republicans win control of the Senate they will take away a woman’s right to choose. . . .
In fact, in August she designed a t-shirt on behalf of the abortion giant. As LifeNews previously reported, the pink t-shirt read, “Hey Politicians! The 1950s called …” on the front. And on the back, the shirts say: “They want their sexism back!”  . . .
An article in the Washington Examiner shares more about Johansson’s letter. The author, Ashe Schow, wrote the following:

“Despite the Left’s insistence that abortion is one of the few things women voters care about, the word “abortion” rarely makes it into their campaign ads. The reason abortion supporters call themselves “pro-choice” is that they’d rather not say the word. Abortion isn’t actually as popular as they would have you believe — it doesn’t poll well, and other than the first three months of pregnancy, large majorities of Americans think it should be illegal.
And so it is with a recent Democratic National Committee email sent on behalf of actor Scarlett Johansson (Black Widow from “The Avengers”), which claimed that if the GOP wins control of the Senate, they will take away “a woman’s right to choose.”
The email vaguely describes that choice as the ‘right to make her own personal health care decisions,’ but never says that the only decision they mean is abortion.

Experts predict a big win tonight for heteronormative patriarchy. And you know what that means? Prepare to be oppressed, ladies.