The Other McCain

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SUPER TUESDAY: Joe Biden Sweeps the South, Bernie Sanders Wins VT, CO, UT

Posted on | March 3, 2020 | Comments Off on SUPER TUESDAY: Joe Biden Sweeps the South, Bernie Sanders Wins VT, CO, UT

UPDATE 11:45 p.m. ET: OK, so far in California — about 15% of precincts reporting — it’s Sanders at 27%, Bloomberg 20%, Biden 18%, Buttigieg 12% and Warren 11%. You might say, “But I thought Buttigieg dropped out?” Yes, but early voting (an idea I’ve always opposed) means that many thousands of ballots were already cast before Buttigieg quit. Both Texas and Maine are still too close to call, but the “win” doesn’t really matter. What matters is the delegate count, and “too close to call” means that Biden and Bernie will more or less evenly split a majority of the delegates in those states. If Bernie manages to hang on for a win California, that will offset his losses elsewhere, and so the total delegate count should be nearly a dead-heat.

Still, tonight will be counted as a comeback victory for Joe Biden, whose campaign was written off for dead before he won South Carolina, and now he’s got momentum in a field that has swiftly shrunk from seven candidates to four. Warren has vowed to remain in the race, and Bloomberg’s campaign staff says they will “reassess” their situation tomorrow. My guess is that both of them hang around at least for the next debate on March 15, but that’s just a guess.

It was pointed out on MSNBC tonight that Biden won states where he never campaigned, ran no ads, and didn’t even have any staff or offices in the state. So a lot of inconceivable things have already happened, and I’m going to bed. We’ll sort it all out in the morning.

UPDATE 11:20 p.m. ET: Sanders wins Utah and leads by about 4 points in Texas, but it’s still too close to call there. Biden wins Massachusetts, where Warren placed third in her home state.

UPDATE 10:40 p.m. ET: Biden has won Minnesota and Arkansas, while Texas and Maine remain too close to call. Polls close in California at 11 p.m. ET.

UPDATE 9:30 p.m. ET: Tennessee has just been called for Joe Biden, adding to Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama and Oklahoma for the former vice president, while Bernie Sanders has added a win in Colorado to his previously announced victory in his home state of Vermont.

* * * PREVIOUSLY * * *

It’s 7 p.m. ET, and polls just closed in Virginia — which has already been called for Joe Biden — and in Vermont, where I’d say Bernie Sanders is the heavy favorite. A week ago, it looked like Biden was doomed, but he won big Saturday in South Carolina, forcing Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar to quit the campaign. Buttigieg and Klobuchar both endorsed Biden, and so that leaves Biden, Sanders, Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren as the only real candidates left. My hunch is that Bloomberg is going to get completely wrecked tonight. He’s spent something around $500 million in a huge bet on Super Tuesday, and I doubt he’ll clear 10% in any of the 14 states voting today. We shall see.

UPDATE 7:15 p.m. ET: Yeah, this was an easy call:

What really counts, of course, is not who “wins” each state, but rather the total delegate haul for each candidate. Keep an eye on that.

UPDATE 7:35 p.m. ET: Fox News just called North Carolina for Biden.

UPDATE 7:50 p.m. ET: Damn those Samoans! I just lost a bet!

That’s six more delegates than I thought he’d get. I’m shocked to learn that if you throw around a few million bucks in Samoa, you get results.

UPDATE 8:05 p.m. ET: The Biden juggernaut rolls on:



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