Remember: The Left Banks On At Least Two Things

by Smitty

Those two things being:

  1. The public has no recollection of history before the previous news cycle, and
  2. The public has no patience.

I, for one, see a great deal of wisdom in Sarah’s non-approach to toying with the notion of a Presidential campaign. She’s basically doing a Second Mover play. What is striking, ironic, and disheartening is that, for all of the dismay about politics as usual, there is nothing but contempt poured upon someone doing the unusual.

Fricking relax, people: Governor Palin will either declare, or not. You know who wants her to declare right now, so he can giver her the Full Alinsky? BHO, that’s who. The threat of her candidacy, itself, is something which conservatives should relax and enjoy fully, until such time as she declares that phase concluded.

Should the potential candidacy materialize, waiting as long as possible shall have minimized the exposure to the Ruling Class money sources, and maximize pressure on We The People to put up or shut up. If we fail to support a relatively independent candidate, then we deserve the Romney/Huntsman tool who will be picked by the Ruling Class to run a mediocre campaign, culminating in a gracious concession speech.

For my part, none of the candidates are talking about the kind of scaling back that is truly needed. Spending varies, typically increasing. So talking about spending cuts, or tax cuts may as well be hope and change, for all I care. Tell me about regulatory cuts, about structural reductions in the federal government, and you have a chance of sounding serious. That’s what needs to occur. Yet all of the candidates are concerned about focus-group testing every utterance, about ensuring they don’t scare the moderates. OK. Got it. We have to start where we can, and keep the pressure on to reduce the government. Three parts to bureaucratic struggle:

  • 48% showing up. Can you be peeled off of ESPN long enough to care?
  • 48% stamina. Do you outlast the opponent?
  • 2 4% the ideas you’re putting forth.

Keep that in mind.

Update: props to Anamika for helping my typing of ‘independent’.
Update II: woe unto the blogger who doesn’t make a separate math check after the spell check, especially when named ‘Smith’.

People Who Like Sarah Palin Liked Her Iowa Speech; Ace of Spades, Not So Much

Sarah Palin gave her big speech in Indianola while I was at lunch today with Da Tech Guy. However, I got a sort of live feed on the event via a series of text messages from Tea Party activist Tiffiny Ruegner.

“No doubt she’s campaigning,” Tiffiny texted, and at the end: “Finished. Didn’t announce. . . . You’ll get the story in New Hampshire.”

The part elided (“…”) involved the suggestion that perhaps Palin did not announce her presidential candidacy at Indianola because of her displeasure with the bungled organizing of the rally. So Tiffiny’s theory is that Palin will announce Monday at the Manchester rally, and I pass that along as an interesting theory to consider.

Doug Brady at Conservatives for Palin has a comprehensive round-up of the speech, including the complete video:

Here’s Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines Register:

Although this audience of like-minded conservatives passionately urged her to run, Palin during her 40-minute speech did not say whether she will seek the Republican nomination for president.

Here’s Alex Pappas of the Daily Caller:

“The reality is we are governed by a permanent political class,” Palin said to applause from a rain-soaked audience in Indianola, “until we change that.”
The crowd at the Tea Party for America’s “Restoring America” event ate it up. She was interrupted during her speech to chants of “Run, Sarah, Run.”

And here’s Scott Conroy of Real Clear Politics:

Sarah Palin still isn’t a candidate, but in an aggressive bid to lay down her marker in the 2012 Republican presidential race, she delivered a speech here Saturday that was as confrontational toward the Republican establishment as it was aimed at President Obama.
Despite her high-profile endorsement of Rick Perry during his 2010 gubernatorial primary fight, Palin used thinly veiled language to leave little doubt that she sees the Texas governor and national front-runner for the Republican nomination as part of the problem.
“Some GOP candidates, they also raise mammoth amounts of cash,” Palin said. “We need to ask them, too: What, if anything, do their donors expect from their investments? We need to know this because our country can’t afford more trillion-dollar thank-you notes to campaign backers.”
Again and again, Palin urged her audience to confront “the permanent political class,” “crony capitalism” and “the good ol’ boys,” whom she said she took on as governor of Alaska.

The idea that Palin may enter the 2012 field because of her dissatisfaction with Perry’s campaign is intriguing, but I’ll save that for another post. For now, let’s consider Ace’s idea that Palin’s just jerking everybody around:

[A]fter the encouragement of interest, and the cultivation of speculation about what that “major announcement” might be, it was a very standard-issue and not-particularly-important or novel stump speech.
Some might find this sort of coyness and games-playing “brilliant” or the like. I don’t.
Some may claim she “played a trick on the media.” Yes, the media. And everyone else too. . . .
Who’s being pranked here? The media in attendance were all paid to be there. Their travel arrangements were comped. They’ll get back their vacation day. And it was either covering this or covering Jon Huntsman.
What about everyone else?

You can go read the whole thing. Ace seems to be more or less on the Perry bandwagon at this point, so a bit of Palin-vs.-Perry drama may be shaping up . . . But as I say, that’s another post.

The “paid to be there” factor was part of the reason I didn’t go to Indianola. If I had thought she was going to announce, I might have made the trip. But I’d already spent 10 days in Iowa, whereas I hadn’t been to New Hampshire yet, so this trip seemed to me the better bargain for the tip-jar hitters. It’s cheaper, because I can crash on Da Tech Guy‘s sofa and ride with him, rather than paying for a hotel room and renting a car.

Florida, on the other hand . . . but let’s not get ahead of the story.


Fear and Loathing at Union Station

UNION STATION, Washington, D.C.
My son-in-law dropped me off here about 1 a.m. My train leaves at 3:15 a.m.  So I’ve got a few minutes to do a quick blog post before I board the train and head off to Worcester and thence to New Hampshire.

We’re trying to get Dan Collins of Piece of Work in Progress, who lives in Vermont, to come over to Manchester, N.H., for Monday’s Tea Party Express Rally with Sarah Palin. Go hit Dan’s tip jar.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, Sarah Palin met Friday with a couple hundred supporters at a restaurant in a Des Moines suburb, and managed to make news:

As former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin walked in the front door of The Machine Shed restaurant in Urbandale, Iowa, this evening, a reporter asked Palin what she thought about the current field of GOP presidential candidates.
“Happy with the field of candidates. I always think that there’s room for more, though, because spirited debate and more competition will allow an even better discourse and a more rigorous discourse that the public deserves,” Palin said.

So, yeah, she’s not ruling anything out. Just keepin’ everybody on their toes. You betcha.

This station is spooky in the wee hours. Dark and quiet. Here’s video:

All aboard! Time to go. Please hit the tip jar.

Iowa Conspiracy Theory

Two different people sent me this photo:

This photo — showing Texas Gov. Rick Perry talking to Ken Crow — was taken Saturday by Lisa Krantz of the San Antonio News-Express at a Polk County (Iowa) GOP fundraising event in Des Moines.

Crow is the president and founder of the Tea Party group that is hosting this weekend’s Indianola rally with Sarah Palin. In discussing the controversy surrounding that event, I mentioned earlier one friend’s conspiracy theory that Perry’s campaign was secretly orchestrating that controversy to undermine Palin. One of the people who sent me this photo included an e-mail comment:

This guy Crow has to be doing this all on purpose, for one reason: to make Palin look bad, for the benefit of someone who wants to make Palin look bad.
Remember: if they can make the narrative “Tea Party Woman=Christine O’Donnell=Sarah Palin” stick, then who wins? Rick Perry.

Way too far-fetched for my tastes. Is Team Perry really so crafty that, months in advance, they would dispatch a clandestine operative to insinuate himself among Iowa Tea Party activists, persuade them to invite Palin to a big rally, and then wreck the whole thing on purpose just to make Palin look bad?

Well, I don’t believe it — although some very intelligent people do believe it — yet I pass this along just to illustrate what kind of bad vibes have resulted from this disorganized Indianola situation.

UPDATE: Want some more paranoia?

The guy who supposedly put the hook in to get O’Donnell booted off the Indianola rally was Palin chief of staff Michael Glassner. Here’s his biography — total GOP Establishment guy, worked 15 years for Bob Dole.

Make of this what you will.

Indianola ‘Clusterf**k’
UPDATE: Iowa Rally Organizer Trashes Palin to NBC News?
UPDATE: Palin Blames O’Donnell?

UPDATE 4:15 p.m. ET: Holy stinking crap!

Tea Party of America President Ken Crow told NBC News, “I had to cancel Ms. O’Donnell” after a conversation with Sarah Palin aides — and is now hopeful Palin will attend the Saturday rally in Indianola.
He was told by Palin’s team that he’d have a final answer shortly.
This comes after failed Delaware Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell was in, then out, then back in, and now indefinitely out. And Palin was in, then “on hold.”

What a nightmare: Crow makes Palin the bad guy, telling NBC News (!!) that it’s Palin’s fault that O’Donnell got dumped, thus feeding the MSM’s “diva” meme. I’m beginning to believe one friend’s conspiracy theory that this is all being orchestrated by Rick Perry’s campaign.

UPDATE 4:25 p.m. ET: Ace ponders the What Were They Thinking questions, but never mind the thinking, it’s the saying that’s the real issue: Why would Crow tell NBC News — the propaganda apparatus of the DNC — about a conflict between Palin and O’Donnell, knowing how harmful such a narrative would be to Palin?

UPDATE 4:48 p.m. ET: The raw craziness reaches stratospheric levels:

An O’Donnell aide told RCP that the former GOP candidate for senator in Delaware had texted Palin to ask about the rapidly developing situation but had not received a response.
While it is clear that O’Donnell’s proposed speaking slot was not acceptable to Palin’s camp, the Palin aide denied that anyone on the Palin team had explicitly demanded that O’Donnell be removed from the speaker’s list.
Palin’s concern arose, the aide said, when an O’Donnell aide suggested to event organizers that Palin wanted the Delawarean to share the stage with her.
“They haven’t spoken in over a year,” the aide said of the two women.

According to whom did an O’Donnell aide do this?

How did Palin’s aides learn about this? From “event organizers”? Why would Palin’s aide then tell this to a reporter? Does the aide think that making O’Donnell the villain will make Palin look good?

UPDATE 5:10 p.m. ET: Linked by Iowa’s Shane Vander Hart who prefers “disorganized mess” as a family-friendly way to describe this clusterf–k.

UPDATE 5:30 p.m. ET: More from Ace:

Before inviting O’Donnell, did it occur to [the Iowa organizers] they should run that by their headliner/whole reason to have the rally in the first place?
Did none of them wonder about this at all?

Good question. But now Crow appears to be trying to blame it on Palin, and Palin’s staff is pointing the finger at O’Donnell. And all of this is being played out in headlines in the MSM because nobody involved seems to know how to say “no comment” when a reporter calls — unless it’s me calling, in which case either (a) my calls go straight to voicemail or (b) nobody will talk on the record.

PREVIOUSLY (12:17 p.m. ET): An uproar has suddenly erupted over Sarah Palin’s planned Sept. 3 appearance at a Tea Party rally in Indianola, Iowa. It has been reported she cancelled her appearance, but my impression — I can’t say who I’ve talked to — is that Governor Palin very much wants to appear at the event.

The reported cancellation might be best interpreted as a “final warning” gesture from Team Sarah to the event organizers: Get your act together.

Based on what I’m hearing, Ken Crow’s Tea Party of America has undergone predictable problems because the Indianola rally is the first event the group has ever sponsored. TPA gained instant credibility by recruiting longtime Des Moines Tea Party leader Charlie Gruschow, but Crow previously has had limited involvement in the movement. Once Palin was announced as the event headliner, many other people wanted to get involved, and basic problems common to volunteer organizations developed. Disputes arose over questions about what level of security was required for Governor Palin, and about who else would speak during the rally.

The recent controversy over whether Christine O’Donnell would speak at the Indianola rally was the public tip of a submerged iceberg of behind-the-scenes conflict surrounding the event, evidence of organizational ineptitude that one person described bluntly as a “clusterf–k.”

The very latest word — which arrived while I was writing this — is that Palin’s previously “cancelled” appearance is now un-cancelled, but this unfortunate public controversy can be taken as further indication of the risks involved in volunteer grassroots organizing.

UPDATE: Scott Conroy cites “two sources close to [Palin]” — I’m not going to grumble about unreturned calls right now — about “issues regarding the hosts” of the rally, and also quotes TPA’s Crow:

“The truth of the matter is you’ve got a couple old cowboys running a Tea Party and we’re not professional politicians,” Tea Party of America President Ken Crowe told RCP earlier on Wednesday morning. “I’m way green.”

Alex Pappas at the Daily Caller quotes Crow:

An organizer of the much-publicized tea party rally in Iowa this weekend says Sarah Palin would not be doing herself any favors if she drops out of the event.
“I hope that isn’t so…It would hurt her more than hurt us,” event organizer Ken Crow, the co-founder and president of the Tea Party of America, told TheDC.

Pathetic. You get Palin to headline your rally, screw up the planning and then — when Palin’s people become uncomfortable with your bungling — say her cancellation would hurt her more than it hurts you?

You never would have had a rally if it hadn’t been for Palin agreeing to appear, and she never would have agreed to it if Charlie Gruschow wasn’t involved. Everybody in the Iowa grassroots tells me they love Charlie, an experienced organizer, but Ken Crow? “Never heard of him before this.”

UPDATE II: Dave Weigel at Slate:

I met Crow in Iowa this month (I’ve been unsuccessful reaching him today) and he struck me as a classic Tea Party archetype — an amateur with big Field of Dreams ambitions. He made me well aware of all the projects he was working on but seemed a little laconic for a guy putting on a mega-rally.
“It’s gonna be televised on C-Span,” he said, “and maybe Fox, too.”
Reading up on Crow today, we find that he’s a talky activist prone to showing how much he knows. For example, on Palin: “I know for a fact she ain’t gonna run.” That’s the guy bringing Palin to Iowa for an event that reporters are attending because they wonder whether Palin will run!

Exactly. Crow’s doing an Amateur Hour act in Iowa, and he seems to be trying to convey the impression that he’s doing Sarah Palin a favor by “letting” her speak at an event that wouldn’t be a blip on the radar outside Iowa if Crow hadn’t been billing Palin as the headliner for more than a month!

UPDATE III: From the Wall Street Journal article, which has since been corrected, but which gives this background on the previously reported “cancellation”:

The former governor will now appear at a Friday event in Des Moines sponsored by the group Conservatives4Palin. It is currently scheduled for 8 p.m. at The Machine Shed Restaurant, though the location will probably have to be changed, the person close to Ms. Palin said. Ms. Palin is still scheduled to appear at a Tea Party Express tour stop Monday in New Hampshire.
Ms. Palin may still hold an event Saturday, the person said, though she has no firm plans. It’s also possible she could still attend the Indianola tea party rally, the person said.
The former governor’s team decided to back out Tuesday night after rally organizers re-invited Ms. O’Donnell to speak on stage. Organizers had booked Ms. O’Donnell, who lost her 2010 bid for a U.S. Senate seat from Delaware, to speak but quickly withdrew the invitation in an effort to avoid controversy.
A Tea Party of America leader told Ms. Palin’s aides that the former governor told him to re-invite Ms. O’Donnell, which is not true, the person said, adding that there were also issues over fund-raising and logistical changes that were not approved by Ms. Palin’s team.

If you read that carefully, you see that Palin’s team was signalling that they’d come to Iowa and do their own event, if they had to, rather than to be jacked around about this Indianola rally.

The “amateur hour” aspect shows in the decision to invite — and then dis-invite and re-invite — O’Donnell. What happened, I am told, is that once O’Donnell was announced, the organizers got e-mails from some Tea Party supporters and/or Palin fans who don’t like O’Donnell.

So then it was decfided to tell O’Donnell “no,” but you don’t ever do that.

This is just basic event planning stuff: If someone is announced to speak, but then for some reason either the organizers or the speaker change their minds — “schedule conflict.”

An unfortunate and unspecified mix-up happened, you tell the media, and you “look forward to working with [whoever] in the future.” Both the organizers and the bumped speaker get to save face, and nobody outside the tent knows what the real reason was. It’s just common courtesy.

The last thing you ever want to do in a situation like that is to appear to be publicly trashing somebody you had previously invited to your event. But that’s exactly what it looked like with the on-and-off scheduling of O’Donnell. Somebody failed to think through the possible consquences of making her a late-minute addition to the schedule, and when they started getting blowback, they pulled the trigger too quick — axing O’Donnell without considering the consequences of that, either — and then were forced to re-invite her:

Crow called the handling of O’Donnell a “mistake.”
“I didn’t handle it the way I should have,” he said. “We handled it incorrectly.”

Well, no duh. But Crow is meanwhile trying to spin this as an “aw shucks we’re just ordinary folks” thing, when Crow is the know-it-all self-promoter who got himself into a position where he’s clearly over his head. So when the WSJ quotes “a person close to” Palin as having “cited ‘continual lying’ from event organizers,” you maybe able to make a good guess who they’re talking about.

UPDATE IV: This “clusterf**k” in Indianola gives liberals in the media another chance to dump on Palin, as if this were all somehow her fault, when Palin had nothing to do with what went wrong.

Thanks for Answered Prayers, and Guess Who’s Going to New Hampshire?

OK, let’s start by saying that I’m waaaay behind on thank-you e-mails to those who’ve hit my tip jar in the past month. I’m going to catch up, I promise, but first, Da Tech Guy has an excellent point about answered prayers:

So do not worry and say, ‘What are we to eat?’ or ‘What are we to drink?’ or ‘What are we to wear?’ All these things the pagans seek. Your heavenly Father knows that you need them all. But seek first the kingdom (of God) and his righteousness, and all these things will be given you besides. Matthew 6:31-33

Admittedly, when I went to that mud-soaked festival in West Des Moines on Aug. 5, I wasn’t seeking the Kingdom of God, I was covering a political campaign. And when I uploaded video of Michele Bachmann’s Christian testimony it never occurred to me that it would provide such an unexpected blessing in such an unimaginable way.

With bills piling up here at home, I’d been wondering how I was going to fund further travels from the Shoe Leather Fund. How could I expect the tip-jar hitters, who gave so generously for my “Fear and Loathing in Iowa” trip to hit the tip jar again in September, when I hadn’t even been able to find time to thank them for what they’d already given in August?

Then that video got hijacked– what an amazing blessing in disguise. And if readers don’t mind, I hope some of the newly-created “Legal Defense Fund” can be applied to buy a train ticket to Boston.

You see, I’d been wondering if I should fly to Iowa for Saturday’s Tea Party rally with Sarah Palin. But now it is being reported that she’s going to New Hampshire right after that event, and my buddy Pete Da Tech Guy in Fitchburg, Mass., lives within driving distance of Manchester, N.H. — site of the noon Tea Party Express rally on Labor Day.

A one-way AmTrak ticket from D.C. to Boston is $162, and I’m sure my buddy Pete will pick me up at the Boston train station and be eager to join me on a trip to cover Governor Palin in New Hampshire. How I’ll get from there down to Florida for the debate in Tampa on Sept. 12 . . .

We’ll see. The important thing now is to hit the freaking tip jar, and then go read Da Tech Guy’s brilliant post. It’s like an answered prayer.

Mixed Signals from Sarah Palin Produce Pure Frustration for the Political Press

Sarah Palin poses for a photo with supporters at the Iowa State Fair, Aug. 12.

This morning Smitty taunted me via Twitter with a link to Ed Morrissey’s post Monday about the will-she-or-won’t-she question: What’s up with this Sept. 3 Tea Party rally in Indianola, Iowa? Ed makes a good point:

Politicians don’t win the Iowa caucus with showy, one-off events.  They have to conduct the retail politicking that the declared candidates are currently conducting all across the state.  That means going to small events as well as large ones, traveling through all of the small towns and shaking hands, and asking voters now to caucus for them in 2012.

Exactly: Let us stipulate that any event with Sarah Palin would be “large” by comparison with, say, the 50 or so voters who showed up for Rick Santorum’s barn party. Still, the fact remains that Iowa caucus-goers prefer to vote for candidates they’ve met face-to-face, and the winner will likely have shaken 50,000 hands by Feb. 6. As Ed says, “Palin would need to win Iowa to have a path to the nomination,” and if she’s going to win it, she’ll have to get busy pretty soon to catch up with the handshaking that’s already been done by her rivals.

Time’s a-wastin’, in other words. Continue reading Mixed Signals from Sarah Palin Produce Pure Frustration for the Political Press →

The Perry-Palin Litmus Test

by Smitty

Allahpundit, emphasis mine:

Since we’re talking Perry, Palin, and Iowa, here’s an … interesting poll that made the rounds yesterday. There’s nothing obviously suspect to me about the methodology for surveying Republicans (the poll was automated, just like all of Rasmussen’s), but I’m not familiar with this pollster so assign whatever degree of credibility to it that you like. I joked on Twitter today that it’ll be fun seeing which side Karl Rove comes down on if the race ends up being between Perry and Palin, but he’d surely take solace in the fact that things will inevitably turn really nasty online between each candidate’s supporters. Perry will get called a cronyist, Palin will get called unqualified, and thus shall the wedge be driven into the grassroots. Can’t wait to find out which of the two is the truer “true conservative.” It’s hard for us RINOs to tell sometimes, you know.

If Governor Palin is the spiritual daughter of Reagan, and his 11th Commandment was not to speak ill of another conservative, then it makes sense that she’ll discipline her troops, to heighten the contrast between her and at least the Left, if not also Governor Perry’s supporters.

But is it in her best interest to go in this early? If she lets Governors Perry and Romney bash on each other and the Left while remaining aloof, is that a bad thing? Her only opportunity cost would be near-term fundraising. However, gambling that her charisma will motivate campaign contributions from the hoi polloi may make it worthwhile to delay.

Furthermore, if a substantial number of the people already bet that she’s running, without an official announcement, then she builds pressure on BHO, while not actually being present on the field, which presence would become a rallying cry for the opposition. She continues to log hours in front of a camera, and work whatever offline coaching she’s doing, honing the message. The Recovering Liberal breaks down the pundit split, which favors a run, but cites 03 September for the announcement.

What is the fish/cut bait date? I predict a buildup during the fall, a final go/no go decision, which will be a go, and come on 13 November, with all of the appropriate invocations of Reagan. By that time, the mysterious 1 in 5 who strongly support BHO shall have ebbed about as far as they will, and the House GOP shall have had time to recycle the debt question with the FY12 spending bills. Unless BHO can find a way not to look a total boob (again) on budgetary matters (it could happen: his opponent is the GOP), he stands to be further weakened as the year drags on. Other than the corresponding economic damage to the country, what’s not to like about that?

So, sorry, Maggie Mac: your bustier straps are likely to remain twisted a few months more, if I’m right. Daily Pundit also sounds a trifle overheated:

At this point, if Sarah does jump in, I’m inclined to be annoyed with her. She dicked around playing cute for months, when she could have joined the fray and locked up the anti-RINO vote.

You’ll shake it off, I expect.

In any event, it makes little sense for Perry or Palin supporters to expend ammunition on each other. They’d fail the Reagan litmus test. And she’s not in the race. He’s still receiving the inspection reserved for candidates whose names do not rhyme with ‘trauma’. If they’re the last two standing, there may be some thumb wrestling to sort out who tops the ticket. But that’s all wildly speculative.