The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Prediction Update: Your Next Six Weeks

Posted on | October 2, 2011 | 46 Comments

by Smitty

Back in July, before Solyndra, I ‘boldly’ predicted that BHO wouldn’t complete the term, or run for re-election, for that matter. Now, watch the near-term future unfold. As the USS Obama capsizes and works on its submarine impression, the Left, casting about for someone, anyone, who is both

  • reliable, in the sense that they can be counted upon to maintain the Progressive status quo, and
  • has enough name recognition to run for President, and
  • is a big enough megalomaniac for the task.

I know, you think I’m going to say ‘Dennis Kucinich’, but really: we mean Hillary here, don’t we? The question is when?

Peering into my crystal bollocks, I don’t see how the administration survives the mounting tsunami of crap past the end of this month. So, I’m saying that, by 01 November, Silent Hillary shall have been identified as the Great White Democrat Hope. Literary allusion hyperlink provided in advance to deflect accusations of raaaaacism and anti-fat chick bias with that might come from a snarky sharky reference.

At that point, Sarah Palin’s hesitation to declare a run comes into focus. Once BHO is out of the picture, she cannot be used as an Alinsky focus to distract from BHO’s implosion. In 2008, the “If you do not vote for X, you are Y” argument featured X=BHO, and Y=raaaaacist. For 2012, X=Hillary, Y=misogynist. The Democrat party, itself, threw Hillary under the bus in 2008, knows that crowds never remember. Alas, the internet never forgets. The old Democrat playbook, never founded upon liberty, looks to be given about one last try next year.

Once Hillary and surprise running mate Morgan Freeman deploy to combat the Tea Party insurgency, Sarah becomes the obvious response. On 13 November, 32 years to the day after Ronald Reagan’s announcement, Sarah announces her candidacy, and let the various election laws fall where they may. Thus, American politics achieves the perverse result of whoever having the lesser negatives winning the election.

Let the Palinistas not take the previous sentence as some subtle swipe. I admire Sarah fully; she has weathered an unrelenting hail of ugliness from the Left. So, too, has Hillary for that matter. One cannot fail to give credit where due: Hillary is a sharp, determined lady who also endured a lot of cheap shots (including mine), and has successfully avoided punching Bill’s ticket for a saintly length of time.

The point I’m getting at is that our entire system of self-governance is in jeopardy if any election can be reduced to “If you do not vote for X, you are Y” arguments. Self-governance is a tax on your time. You have to invest a ‘reasonable’ amount of time, not so much in fretting every detail, but in ensuring that the leaders to whom you’re delegating your political power are supporting liberty. Otherwise, the EPA is going to take your breath away, like the KKK took your baby. Aside: the Presidential Seal behind the drummer is not ironic. The Ramones were conservatives!

And, if neither lady actually steps up to the plate, I can’t say I blame them. While proudly a pro-Constitutional American, I am so thoroughly anti-Progressive that dealing with the pile of hooey our government has become seems an exercise in futility. Many in politics may be driven by megalomania; I myself would need a mile-wide martyr complex even to try. Better still to stand in the peanut gallery and offer full-spectrum support to somebody else more suitable to task.

That is my prediction. Should it come to pass, I will extract the price of a cup of coffee from Stacy McCain. If it does not, I’ll post a picture of some edible crow. Stacy McCain is a serious journalist frequently masquerading as kibitzer here on the blog. As a serious journalist, he despises prediction pieces like this one. Something about a lack of facts, I suppose. I, on the other hand, am a kibitzer with few pretensions of serious journalism. I’d say ‘no pretensions’, but I’m anxious not to mislead.

At any rate, off to church to thank the Almighty for a safe return, a healthy son, and the certainty that we shall recover the country from this sad pack of jackwagons.

Update: linked by both Don Surber and Daily Pundit.

Update II: picked up by Fishersville Mike.

Update III: follow on thoughts at Common Sense Political Thought, who takes an internal view of BHO vis-a-vis LBJ and figures that BHO will not go gently into that political night.

The thesis of this post is that this administration has crossed the red line, between Solyndra and Operation Gunrunner. BHO’s monumental ego will be of academic interest as the sane remainder of the Democrat party tries to figure out how to preserve something past next years’ election.

Category: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Sarah Palin

FMJRA 2.0: Don’t Turn Your Back

Posted on | October 2, 2011 | 5 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho


ORLANDO GOP STRAW POLL RESULTS UPDATE: Herman Cain Beats Rick Perry

SHOCKER: Herman Cain Now Leading Rick Perry 28%-18% in New Zogby Poll UPDATE: Dennis Miller Endorses Cain, Invites Me* to Hang Out in Hollywood

Not a ‘Threat’: Palin Lawyer Gives McGinniss, Random House Legal Notice

Herman Cain on Obama: ‘I’m Listening to All This Bulls–t That He’s Talking About’

BREAKING: AL-QAEDA LEADER ANWAR AL-AWLAKI KILLED IN YEMEN ‘FACEBOOK FRIEND FROM HELL’

Dear Bill Kristol …

Schadenfreude At TNR

Varying Alinsky: Sexualize Everything
UPDATED: Response To Daily Pundit

The Joe McGinniss Method

CAIN-MANIA IN ORLANDO?
UPDATE: 7 Standing Ovations for Cain; Vultures Circle Perry’s ‘Sunshine Special’?

Buzzard Bait: Rick Perry’s Immigration Blunder Took Him From Hero to Zero

FMJRA 2.0: Electric Crown

Cain Rebuts Freeman’s Raaaaacism

I’ll Give You Three Reasons, Ann

Rule 5 Sunday: Sandman

LIVE AT FIVE – 09.26.11

‘Any Real Chance’

Politics as Show Biz

More Sex, Less Babies?

LIVE AT FIVE – 09.27.11

RUN, STEVE, RUN!

President Obama: He May Be Losing the Congressional Black Caucus …

Like Peaches & Herb

Ali Akbar’s Invitation to Morgan Freeman

EXCLUSIVE VIDEO Reveals U.S. Navy’s Secret Weapon in War Against Taliban

LIVE AT FIVE – 09.28.11

House GOP: ‘Instead of Raising Taxes, Why Don’t We Stop Funding Abortion?’

Insert Obscene Epithets Here

LATEST FOX NEWS POLL: Mitt Romney 23% Rick Perry 19% Herman Cain 17%

No, Sarah Palin Did Not Call Herman Cain ‘Herb’ and Did Not Put Him Down
UPDATE: Why Doesn’t the Fox News Transcript Match the Politico Video?

Plot Was ‘Not Reflective of a Particular Culture, Community or Religion’

At Least One Florida Republican Party Official Who Is Not Batsh*t Crazy

LIVE AT FIVE – 09.29.11

Fund-Raising E-Mail: Obama Campaign ‘Refused to Take Money From D.C. Lobbyists and Corporate Special Interests’

Garofalo: My New Raaaaacedar Can Tell That The Herman Cain Enthusiasm Is Like, Totally KKKamouflage

Florida: The Evil State

LIVE AT FIVE – 09.30.11

Candid Neo-Commie

They Told Glenn Reynolds …

Come to Think of It — No, Wait …

What Florida Has Wrought: Will Christmas Be In Iowa Or New Hampshire?

Herman Cain Rhymes With Hurricane: Fund-Raising Surges in Third Quarter

Ellen Carmichael Out, J.D. Gordon In As Cain Campaign Communications Chief


Top linkers this week:

  1. The Pro From Poca (15)
  2. (tied) The Lonely Conservative and The Camp Of The Saints (12)
  3. Daily Pundit (10)
  4. Herman Cain PAC (7)
  5. Da Tech Guy (6)
  6. Truth Before Dishonor (5)


Thanks to everyone for their linkagery! To be included in next week’s FMJRA if you’re still blogging on Blogger or some other platform WordPress hates, send your links (and the articles they link to, please!) to me by October 7 with “FMJRA” or “Shameless Blogwhoring” in the subject line.

Category: FMJRA Award

Is #PerryFail the Hot New #tcot Hashtag?

Posted on | October 1, 2011 | 48 Comments

Rick Perry is already in a hole over his immigration policy, but he keeps on digging:

“Are we going to kick these children over to the curb and say you cannot have access to college? Because the fact of the matter is there’s no way they could pay the out-of-state tuition.”

Once more, Allahpundit wields the knife:

[A]fter you’ve tried to win over voters by calling them heartless, there’s really nowhere to go but up. . . .
Really? There are no jobs for illegals anywhere in Texas to earn tuition money? . . . This is the same sleight of hand he tried to use in the debate answer that got him in trouble, equating illegals’ opportunity to go to school in Texas with some sort of moral imperative among taxpayers to subsidize their education.

Go back just 10 days — before the Orlando debate, before the Florida straw poll — and remember how Perry was the unstoppable juggernaut, the bandwagon everyone was going to ride to glory.

And now it’s over. Completely and irretrievably over. How over is it? Mitt Romney is mocking Perry as a RINO sellout:

Dude. When your “conservative” candidate makes Mitt Romney look like Sheriff Joe Arpaio, it’s over. So . . .

HERMAN CAIN for PRESIDENT
Because No Mexican Ever Said Anything Nice About Him

Category: Election 2012, Immigration, Mexico, Rick Perry

World’s Youngest Blogger Responds To ‘Occupy Wall Street’ Piffle

Posted on | October 1, 2011 | 4 Comments

by The World’s Youngest Blogger

With the firm support of his proud grandfather, The World’s Youngest Blogger offers a succinct editorial response to people behaving in an infantile fashion. And the WYB does know infantile.

Category: #Occupy, World's Youngest Blogger

Ellen Carmichael Out, J.D. Gordon In as Cain Campaign Communications Chief

Posted on | October 1, 2011 | 27 Comments

UPDATE (Oct. 6): “Storm Center: J.D. Gordon Takes Charge as Herman Cain Communications Director”

** PREVIOUSLY (6:36 p.m. ET, Oct. 1) **

I knew this last night but was sworn to secrecy, as it wasn’t supposed to be announced until Monday: Ellen Carmichael is leaving Herman Cain’s campaign as communications director. She will be replaced by a former Defense Department public affairs officer, J.D. Gordon.

CNN got the scoop today, because I don’t burn my sources. I’d rather get scooped than betray a confidence.

UPDATE: Shannon Travis of CNN is a friend of Ellen’s, as are a couple of other reporters who, like me, must be kicking themselves for not reporting the story yesterday when they had the chance. Travis’s story has most of what Ellen was willing to tell me — as one friend to another — last night. But the part about J.D. Gordon (and some other relevant info) I’ll have to get in the next update.

UPDATE II: First things first, according to the Cain campaign’s second-quarter FEC report, Ellen Carmichael was paid $22,628.49 for the three months ending June 30. Do the math, and that’s about $90,000 a year. (UPDATE: This estimate is wrong; see third update below.) It’s damn good money for someone just out of college and (not to put too fine a point on it) more than I’ve ever earned in any of my 25 years as a journalist. However . . .

The campaign hired on New Media director Michael Johnson, who was paid $21,674.70 during the second quarter — nearly equal to what they paid Carmichael, who has worked for Cain nearly a year. You can go down the list of other Cain staff salaries and ask yourself whether the Director of Communications was paid what such an important job title would suggest, relative to other members of the staff.

This is not to say that Carmichael quit over money, however. She didn’t even mention that in her conversation with me. I just happened to notice it today while I was reporting on Cain’s third-quarter fundraising.

However, the news that the campaign had hired Gordon to be Carmichael’s boss — dude, think about that. And I’m guessing Gordon’s salary will be more than $90,000 a year. IYKWIMAITYD.

UPDATE III: I’m told that some people are trying to claim Ellen was fired or “let go,” which is false. And I’m also told that my estimate of Carmichael’s salary is wrong. The figure reported on the second-quarter FEC report was actually retroactive until January, so that her annualized salary was closer to $45,000.

Having first met Herman Cain when I interviewed him in 2007, and being one of the first to cover his campaign in December, I know a lot more about what’s gone on with the “Cain Train” than I can report. Because (a) I don’t burn my sources, and (b) there’s a much greater chance of Herman Cain becoming president than most pundits and “experts” are able to see or willing to admit.

It’s important to say that Ellen Carmichael is leaving the Cain campaign on amicable terms and is still an admirer of Herman Cain. This was also true, however, of several people in Iowa to whom I spoke when I spent the entire Fourth of July weekend getting the backstory on a round of staff resignations in late June:

Charlie Gruschow called Tuesday, eager to clarify the terms of his departure from the staff of Herman Cain’s Republican presidential campaign in Iowa. “I have tremendous respect for Herman Cain,” said Gruschow, founder of the Des Moines Tea Party and one of the earliest backers of the Atlanta businessman’s effort in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. Gruschow re-affirmed his support for Cain’s candidacy but resigned his staff position because, as he says he told the campaign’s chief of staff Mark Block in a meeting last week, “my heart’s not in this anymore.”
By “this,” Gruschow meant the day-to-day business of campaign operations, which have been hampered in Iowa by conflicts involving some former Cain staffers. . . .

And who was quoted in that story?

Cain’s spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael called the personnel changes “growing pains” in a campaign that went from its official launch May 21 to a second-quarter fundraising total of nearly $2.5 million (and third place in the Des Moines Register poll) in less than two months.

You can read the whole thing. When she gave me the “growing pains” line, I told her, “Don’t spin me, Ellen,” but she was swearing on a stack of Bibles that this was just a minor speed-bump on the road to victory. And she assures me now that she still has the highest regard for Herman Cain, and the fondest hopes for the campaign’s future success, but felt that it was time for her to pursue other opportunities.

I’ll be back to deal with this story in a little bit, but I’ve got to go get some food right now, because the Alabama game comes on in about a half-hour. Roll Tide!

UPDATE IV: Dan Collins at The Conservatory:

My guess is that as Cain has become a top tier candidate, the pressure on him to get more experienced campaigners has grown. I imagine that at certain points this has meant that Ellen (whom I know only from Twitter) has gotten her toes stepped on, and got them stepped on one times too many. There’s also been the usual backbiting through the usual channels, with people saying that Romney’s campaign is better than he is, Perry’s is as good as he is, and Cain’s is worse than he is. I imagine that kind of back-channel criticism wore her down, too.

Which is a pretty damned good guess, really. This kind of stuff is routine in political campaigns, and the reason you don’t see staff resignations from the Romney campaign is (a) his people have been with him for years, and (b) Romney’s got more money than God, so if somebody gets shoved aside, they’re kept on the payroll anyway.

Ali Akbar at Tea Party Brew has an interesting story, making reference to “underlying tensions.” True enough, but has there ever been a presidential campaign that didn’t have “underlying tensions”? BTW, it was a phone call from Ali that informed me that CNN had broken the story that I’d been sitting on for about 18 hours.

Don Surber points out Gordon’s background:

Gordon is a big snag for Team Cain as he has been a contributing columnist and commentator to Fox News, The Washington Times, Human Events and Capital Insider. Since leaving the Pentagon, Gordon has been a Senior Fellow and Communications Consultant to several Washington-DC based think tanks, including Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Americas Forum, Atlantic Bridge, Center for Security Policy and the Liberty & Freedom Foundation.

Surber throws a couple of shots at Ellen, which is rather unfair. She joined Team Cain early last fall when the candidate was “Herman Who?” She leaves with the candidate now ranked third and poised the challenge the front-runners. Ain’t no shame in her game.

Speaking of the game: Florida scored first to take a 7-0 lead over Alabama. But the Tide just got a first down at the Florida 14. Roll Tide!

UPDATE V: The Examiner‘s Jonathan Gerhke tries to suggest that the Cain campaign is “fractured,” which is no more true today than it was a month ago or three months ago. Go back to something Cain told me in December: “”We are going to run a bottoms-up, outside-the-box campaign.”

The outside-the-box quality of the Cain campaign has manifested itself, at times, as missed opportunities due to inexperienced staff. In August, David Drucker of National Journal wrote an article about Cain’s staff that ended with a quote from an anonymous GOP operative: “Why run a campaign with amateurs?”

Good point, but then when Cain brings a pro like Gordon, this is portrayed as bad news for Cain. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

But let me remind you of something: The experts counted Cain out before he ever started. When he won the South Carolina debate, the experts said it was a fluke. After he placed fourth at Ames, the experts figured he was doomed. And as recently as Sept. 21, none of the experts gave Cain a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the Florida straw poll.

The experts keep saying Cain can’t win and yet, somehow, he keeps proving them wrong. Kind of a pattern there.

Trent Richardson just scored a TD. Bama 10, Florida 10. Roll Tide!

UPDATE VI: Stuff that pisses me off: At 6:23 p.m. ET, I was the first to report that J.D. Gordon would replace Carmichael.

Two hours later — about 8:30 ET — Fox News mentioned Gordon’s hiring at the end of their story. And then when UPI picks it up: “J.D. Gordon will take over as campaign spokesman, Fox News reported.”

See? No respect. Twenty-five years in the business it took me to become the Rodney Dangerfield of American political journalists.

Now in the 2nd quarter, it’s Alabama 24, Florida 10. Roll Tide!

UPDATE VII: University of Alabama alumnus Alex Pappas reports:

Carmichael, a Louisiana native who has a reputation for being well-liked by members of the press, began working for Cain in April of 2010. She also worked for his company, T.H.E. New Voice, and Cain’s exploratory committee before he jumped into the race.
In an email, J.D. Gordon, a foreign policy adviser to Cain who is also now Cain’s chief campaign spokesman, said “Carmichael decided to pursue other opportunities” and that they “appreciate her service to the campaign.”

That Carmichael was “well-liked by members of the press” is true, and the biggest challenge for Gordon will be building relationships with political reporters, none of whom know him from his Pentagon work. Gordon’s reputation in military and foreign policy circles, however, should prove to be a valuable asset for Cain.

Category: Election 2012, Herman Cain

Herman Cain Rhymes With Hurricane: Fund-Raising Surges in Third Quarter

Posted on | October 1, 2011 | 35 Comments

The buzz coming from the Herman Cain campaign is that they will be the only presidential campaign — including Obama and GOP front-runner Mitt Romney — whose third-quarter fund-raising numbers are better than their second-quarter numbers. (A quarter-to-quarter comparison is not possible for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who did not launch his campaign until midway through the third quarter.)

Cain raised slightly more than $2 million in the second quarter, according to official FEC reports, and the Atlanta businessman’s campaign had been heading toward a disappointing third-quarter result until experiencing a powerful surge in late September. Cain’s strong performance in debates Sept. 12 in Tampa and Sept. 22 in Orlando, followed by his shocking upset win in the Sept. 24 Florida GOP straw poll, ignited a massive influx of online contributions.

Most of Cain’s third-quarter total will be from small donors (less than $200), and more than $1 million of the quarterly total will have been raised in the last 10 days of September. Traffic to Cain’s Web page at times has been so heavy that several supporters have left comments on the candidate’s Facebook page in recent days complaining that they can’t get through to make online donations. While the campaign was coping with the phenomenal surge, a fund-raising e-mail sent Friday to Cain’s supporters boasted of the candidate’s success in attracting small donors.

“Other candidates are raising thousands of dollars from a few people. Herman Cain is raising a few dollars from thousands of people,” consultant Brad Marston wrote in the e-mail (full text below) sent shortly before last night’s midnight deadline for the second-quarter FEC report.

Cain’s appearance late Friday on “The Tonight Show” with Jay Leno will likely help carry over his third-quarter momentum into October. The next major event for in the see-saw GOP campaign is an Oct. 18 debate in Las Vegas, sponsored by the Western Republican Leadership Conference and televised on CNN.

* * * * * * *

TEXT OF CAIN FUND-RAISING E-MAIL

Date: Fri, Sep 30, 2011 at 6:14 PM
Subject: Herman Cain – What a week we’re having!
September 30, 2011
Dear [NAME] —
What a week we are having! After Mr. Cain’s great performance at the Fox News Debate, his impressive win at the Florida P5 Straw Poll and news reports showing he is clearly in the top tier of candidates, he is having his best fundraising week ever!
But we’re not done yet! The 3rd Quarter fundraising deadline is only hours away!
President Obama, Mitt Romney and other candidates are playing the expectations game, saying they will raise less money than last quarter. Herman Cain doesn’t play games. He works for and expects success!
This is the final Five Dollar Friday for the quarter. Please join me in donating at least $5 to Herman Cain today!
Other candidates are raising thousands of dollars from a few people. Herman Cain is raising a few dollars from thousands of people who like you, support his Common Sense Solutions! In fact, we are within 1500 donations of having MORE donors than last quarter and quite possibly EXCEEDING our past fundraising totals!
If you have donated recently or simply can’t afford another donation in these challenging economic times, please consider forwarding this email to your friends and family.
Thank you.

Brad Marston
Partner
FourTier Strategies, LLC

http://arealleader.hermancain.com/
PS. Donations must be received by midnight tonight EDT to count towards Herman Cain’s 3rd Quarter fundraising totals. Please donate now!

RECENTLY:


Category: Election 2012, Herman Cain

Fear And Smitty In Las Vegas

Posted on | October 1, 2011 | 19 Comments

by Smitty

[Updated to emphasize future tense.]

The Western Republican Leadership Conference will be hosting, with CNN, a debate at the Sands Expo on 18 October. That’s a little over two weeks away.

Now this blog may be Eastern, highly critical of Republicans, and think that leadership is just one of them book learnin’ concepts you talk about in lieu of delivering a jolly flogging to the foe, but there is only one correct response to the mention of an excuse for a Vegas trip:

This debate occurs while I have a bit of time, and the wife hasn’t spent all of the deployment savings on… wherever it goes. Whether we can do anything about Stacy’s roulette problem remains to be seen:
We’re trying to explain to Stacy that he is not the President, and these numbers on the felt do not represent green energy companies, but, once a Democrat, always a Democrat, they say.

Stacy is burning the cel phone tower down calling all of our left coast chums. He might be staying for several days, breaking news at the conference in his inimitable fashion. Most likely my time will be curtailed to two days, as the World’s Youngest Blogger and Mrs. The Other Smitty have me on a short leash.

Update: use of Smitty in the title means that I should show up somewhere in the post:

The Machismo burrito bar is really in Norfolk, VA, but this is a recent mug.

Consider hitting the freaking tip jar: frogskins make the Gonzo flow!

Category: Fear and Smitty in Vegas, Fear. Loathing.

Santorum Returns to Iowa

Posted on | October 1, 2011 | 11 Comments

Thanks to Florida (“the Evil State”) we may be  just three months from the Iowa caucuses, and Rick Santorum is going back to the Hawkeye State this weekend for a three-day campaign swing that includes this:

Sunday, October 2:
1:00pm CT: Senator Santorum will take part in a 1870s style baseball game at Living History Farms in Urbandale, IA. Prior to the game, Senator Santorum will visit the small church erected on the site in commemoration of where Pope John Paul II preached to Iowans during his 1979 visit.

Ah, the Pope — say, does anybody know what percent of Iowa GOP caucus-goers are Catholic? Because I kinda think that might matter.

Category: Catholics, Election 2012, Iowa, Rick Santorum
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