Sports, Politics and War: Morale Matters

Posted on | September 26, 2024 | Comments Off on Sports, Politics and War: Morale Matters

The benefits of having a readership full of nerds is that sometimes they can teach you things, as in this comment on yesterday’s post:

Obscure wargaming reference here. In the old Avalon Hill Game called Kingmaker — a simulation of the Wars of the Roses — one of the most annoying random event cards is “Defeatism Rife”. Worse than “Plague!” and less amusing then “The King Goes Hunting”. No matter how powerful your faction is, you suddenly lose the ability to leverage your offices, bishoprics, and mercenaries. Your winning faction with an military power of 540 is now a weak 40 for a Turn.
In life, defeatism is similar. I love it — in my enemies and rivals. They defeat themselves before I even move against them. That is why despair is a sin — the Sin of Sloth IIRC.

One is reminded of the old adage that England’s wars were won on the playing fields of Eton, by which it was meant that the education system of British leadership caste was such as to instill in young men the attitudes necessary to victory. The old “stiff upper lip” disposition of British officers, the quality of calm amid crisis, the dogged persistence in the face of daunting odds and discouraging setbacks — “the playing fields of Eton” taught those qualities, somehow. If there is any cause to be pessimistic about America’s future, certainly the state of our education system is at the top of the list, because there is no effort to create leadership of that character. Indeed, our education system is run by people who lack patriotism and clearly do not wish to make our nation stronger. How could “gender theory” lectures contribute to such a project?

Whenever the topic turns to tactics and strategy in politics, we naturally borrow our metaphors from sports and warfare, both of which involve competition between rival teams, in which victory requires cooperation — good teamwork — by the winning side. One of the surest harbingers of failure in any such endeavor is when team members cannot restrain their selfish ambitions and suppress their personal pride in the way necessary for successful team cooperation. Think of the numerous humiliations that George S. Patton had to endure — e.g., being sidelined because of controversy over his slapping a soldier he regarded as a cowardly malingerer — before finally getting his chance at military glory. Or think about the “Wilderness Years” of Churchill, when he was frozen out of the Cabinet while Baldwin and Chamberlain pursued a disastrous policy of appeasement. Being able to keep up the fight — to maintain one’s morale — amid such discouragement is the stuff of greatness.

(Shameless Capitalism Alert: You can buy Winston Churchill’s The Gathering Storm and Their Finest Hour via our Amazon Affiliates link. What the heck, why not buy the entire six-volume set of Churchill’s World War II history? While you’re at it, go pick up the old 1976 “Kingmaker” game set from Avalon Hill. As always, when you purchase products through our Amazon Affiliates links, we receive a small commission at no extra cost to you. Thanks!)

In any long conflict, history teaches, the leader who emerges victorious at the end usually is someone who was relatively obscure when the conflict began. Prior to the American Civil War, U.S. Grant was certainly not the kind of figure anyone would have expected to end the war as top army commander, and when World War II began, Dwight Eisenhower was not a household name. The lesson history teaches is that men destined for greatness often have to “wait their turn,” to persevere through adversity and overcome disadvantages, in order to find their opportunity.

Carolina Panthers fans were celebrating Sunday after veteran quarterback Andy Dalton threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns to lead their team to their first victory of the season — in fact, their first win since last December. The Panthers had the worst record in the NFL last year (2-15) as No. 1 draft pick quarterback Bryce Young struggled in his rookie season and, by “struggled,” I mean failed. After back-to-back defeats to open this season, Carolina head coach Dave Canales benched Young and brought in Dalton, a 36-year-old who has bounced around the league since his glory days with the Cincinnati Bengals more than a decade ago. Dalton hadn’t done much during stints with Dallas, Chicago and New Orleans, and most NFL fans had figured he was nearing retirement while riding the bench behind the rookie QB Young in Carolina. Would replacing Young with Dalton make a difference for the Panthers, who seemed so lacking in overall talent? I didn’t expect any such thing, but what Andy Dalton did against the Raiders on Sunday was a clinic, a showcase of football excellence that seemed to lift the entire team to new heights. I still don’t think Carolina has a snowball’s chance in hell of making the playoffs, but for one day, Andy Dalton was Hercules in cleats, a demigod hero. (I should be writing scripts for NFL Films.)

That’s the kind of saga that inspires us to hope at times when our situation seems hopeless. There was no reason Panthers fans should have expected that, after more than 15 years in the league, Andy Dalton should suddenly recapture his former Pro Bowl form to spark an upset over the Raiders, and yet that’s what happened. The lession — never get demoralized. Don’t let the “Defeatism Rife” card defeat you.

Also from the comments on yesterday’s post, we were reminded of William Jacobson’s warning against “Operation Demoralize”:

Don’t let them demoralize you, and don’t be part of the discouraging chorus of Eeyores, spreading pessimism about the election.

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Category: History, Politics

STOP DOING THIS!

Posted on | September 25, 2024 | Comments Off on STOP DOING THIS!

Look, I don’t want to name any names or call anybody out, but I am sick and tired of the defeatist negativity that crops up in the comments every time I blog about the election. Whenever I point to hopeful signs about November (as I did on Tuesday), the comments fill up with a chorus of doomsayers, declaring that there’s no way that any Republican can ever win anywhere because the Democrats are certain to steal the election. It’s “rigged” to the point of 100% certainty, proclaim the chorus of Eeyores, who always see the glass as half-empty and never let a glint of optimistic sunshine penetrate their preferred gloom of hopelessness. STOP IT!

This struck me when I looked at the comments not only here, but over at my American Spectator column. There are some people who appear to be temperamentally averse to good news, and feel compelled to share their discouragement with everyone — Apostles of Defeatism, so to speak.

What got me about such comments on my American Spectator column is that some of them implied that I had not considered the possibility of Democrats cheating, when in fact I’d included no fewer than three such references, including a specific mention of “ballot harvesting.” What’s the point of writing, if people are not even going to pay attention to what you write? “Oh, here’s a headline suggesting Trump could win — let me jump in the comments to rain on everybody’s parade.”

Do these commenters not realize that, as co-author of Donkey Cons, I wrote an entire chapter about the Democratic Party’s long and sordid history of election fraud? Must I flaunt my credentials as having somewhat more expertise in politics than the average guy on his sofa yelling at the TV news? Or are my rhetorical skills insufficient to convey the impression that I know what I’m talking about?

If you are among the (evidentaly) few who actually bothered to read my American Spectator column in its entirety, you see that it hinges on the predictive value of polling: Examining how closely polls (both individually and collectively) predicted past election results, and using this data to estimate the final result based on the prior track record.

Producing such an analysis is made easier, as I said in my column, with the tools provided by Real Clear Politics. Anyone who really cares enough to investigate this issue can do it, but it does take some effort — apparently more effort than most big-time journalists are willing to do, or they’d be hitting the panic button at CNN and MSNBC by what such research reveals about Kamala Harris’s chances in November.

Let’s take one battleground state, Michigan, as an example. According to the RCP average as of Tuesday, Michigan is Harris +1.8, but on the same date in 2020, Biden was +5.2 in Michigan and, because his final official margin of victory was 2.8 points, this gives us a measurement of predictive value — a 3.4-point swing, so that if the RCP average has Harris +1.8, the predictive value is Trump +1.6.

As I explained in my column, you can do this not only with RCP averages, but with specific pollsters. For example, the Marist poll has Harris +5 in Michigan now. But in September 2020, when Marist was polling for NBC News, they had Biden +8, which is 5.2 points higher than Biden’s final margin, meaning that the Harris +5 result by Marist has the predictive value of a narrow Trump victory in Michigan.

Guess what? If you go back into the 2016 and 2020 results, nationally or state-by-state, you’ll have a hard time finding polls that don’t overstate the Democratic vote, sometimes by mind-boggling margins. Practically all public pollsters err in the same direction, and I don’t think this is a coincidence. They’re not polling to find public opinion; they’re polling to influence public opinion. Most polls are literally political propaganda for Democrats — disinformation! — and Democrats know this as well as anyone, which is why they’re doing their own “internal” polls, which tell a very different story than what most public pollsters are telling us.

Harris’s path to 270 Electoral College is very narrow, primarily because of how badly she’s doing in Pennsylvania. With 19 Electoral College votes, Pennsylvania is the largest battleground state and the RCP average on Tuesday had it Harris +0.6; on the same date in 2020, RCP had Biden +4.3 in Pennsylvania. Because he only won the state by 1.2 points, the current Harris result has the predictive value of Trump +3.1.

DONALD TRUMP IS WINNING PENNSYLVANIA!

Shut up, you damned Eeyores! I can picture you poring over the RCP average trying to find a gray cloud to darken the horizon. “What about this Quinnipiac poll showing Harris +5 in Pennsylvania?” Picture my grin as I tell you that, in 2020, Quinnipiac had Biden +13 in Pennsylvania.

Thirteen points! Any Quinnipiac poll showing Kamala Harris with less than a double-digit lead is, in fact, predicting a Trump victory.

Those of you who are addicted to pessimism — discouragement junkies, seeking your daily fix of gloom — will have to look elsewhere to satify your craving. It’s all sunshine and flowers here, baby.

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Category: Election, Polls

The Slow Death of Kamala’s ‘Joy’

Posted on | September 24, 2024 | Comments Off on The Slow Death of Kamala’s ‘Joy’

Notice something about that picture of Vice President Kamala Harris? She’s wearing sneakers. Is this supposed to be some kind of message? At age 59, she is the candidate of youth, or something? In a campaign short on substance and long on symbolism, we can be certain that having the candidate onstage in a pair of Chuck Taylors is not mere coincidence.

Maybe the fashion editors at Vogue or Cosmo can fill us in on Kamala’s footwear choices, but my point is that the Harris campaign has spent the first two months of its existence inside a bubble of media-generated unreality. Remember how the trained seals of journalism mindlessly repeated the “joy” theme of the Democratic National Convention? Remember all the talk about the sudden groundswell of “energy” and “enthusiasm” once Joe quit and Kamala stepped in?

“Kamala Is Underperforming,” as I explained 10 days ago, and that reality is starting to become apparent even to her sycophants in the media. Worry lines have begun to furrow the foreheads of CNN and MSNBC personalities as they contemplate such signs as the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll showing the race a dead heat between Harris and Trump. This is not good news for Harris, because if the race is a tie nationally and we know that Democrats always do better in the popular vote than in the Electoral College, a tie in the polls almost certainly augurs a Republican victory in November.

So I went back to the well of “underperforming” Kamala:

Nobody wants Kamala Harris to win this election more than do her celebrity media friends, who are willing to forfeit their credibility to drag her across the finish line. ABC News, whose blatantly one-sided “fact-checking” during Harris’s debate with Donald Trump was widely criticized, has seen its ratings tumble in the aftermath.
What’s remarkable is not just the absolute shamelessness of the media’s pro-Democrat bias — they’re so far in the tank for her, their “news coverage” is just an endless campaign ad for Harris — but the fact that it doesn’t seem to be helping. The one story they’re not reporting is the most important of all: Kamala Harris is losing this election.
Don’t take my word for it. Go look at where Harris stands in the polls today, and then compare her numbers to what the polls showed for Joe Biden on the same day in his 2020 race against Trump, and for Hillary Clinton in her 2016 race against Trump. In both of those previous two elections, most polls were slanted in favor of the Democratic candidates, so that Trump did better in the final official vote tallies than he did in the polls. This track record of error in favor of Democrats provides the proverbial “grain of salt” with which everyone should consume public polling.
Fortunately, Tom Bevan, Carl Cannon and the rest of the crew at RealClearPolitics (RCP) have made it easy for anyone to compare current presidential poll numbers to those in 2020 and 2016. These comparisons show Harris to be underperforming Biden and Clinton to such an extent that a Trump victory in November is the most likely outcome. . . .

Read the rest of my column in The American Spectator. It’s more than 2,500 words, but I think it’s worth the effort.

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Category: American Spectator, Kamala Harris, Polls

Rule 5 Sunday: Moving Indoors

Posted on | September 23, 2024 | Comments Off on Rule 5 Sunday: Moving Indoors

— compiled by Wombat-socho

Even in Las Vegas, it’s getting cool enough outside so wet T-shirt contests need to start moving indoor to the bars from the pools. This week’s appetizer courtesy of kbdabear on X.
Ceterum autem censeo Silicon Valley et Hamas delendam sunt.

ANIMAL MAGNETISM: Rule Five Border Crisis Friday, and the Saturday Gingermageddon.

A VIEW FROM THE BEACH: Gabi Champ, Border Chief Told To Shut Up about Special Interest Aliens, Fish Pic Friday – Chezney, Sharks in the Bay?, Secret Service Encountered Routh at 10 Ft!, Gymnpedie No.1, Dogs, Man’s Best Friend, but Not Neanderthal’s, Where Did All the Crabs Go?, Post Assassination Attempt Hump Day, The Wednesday Wetness, Tattoo Tuesday, Half a Million for 10 Acres?, Trump Assassination Attempts, Round Two, The Monday Morning Stimulus, Random Celebrity News and Palm Sunday.

FLAPPR: T.I.T.S. for September 20th

Thanks to everyone for all the luscious links!
.

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Category: Rule 5

FMJRA 2.0: One Last Series

Posted on | September 22, 2024 | Comments Off on FMJRA 2.0: One Last Series

— compiled by Wombat-socho

We lost two out of three games against Boston and then split the two-game series against the O’s at home, which leaves us at 67-92, still in last place and five games behind the A’s. This week we’re facing the Pirates at home; we’re 1-2 against them so far this season, and it would be nice if we did at least that well in the last series of the season. Already looking at the roster for next year and seeing I’m going to have some hard choices to make in the draft since some of my stud players this year are turning into pumpkins next year.
Next week I’ll be in Oak Ridge for the Security Site Advisory Board Chairs meeting, and I have no idea what my schedule is going to be like, except that I’ll be flying into Knoxville on Monday and back to Las Vegas on Friday.
Ceterum autem censeo Silicon Valley et Hamas delendam sunt.

‘I Wouldn’t Call Him Crazy’
The Daley Gator
Flappr
A View From The Beach
EBL
357 Magnum

Kamala Is Underperforming
A View From The Beach
EBL
357 Magnum

FMJRA 2.0: The Beatings Will Continue Until The Season Concludes
A View From The Beach
EBL
357 Magnum

Rule 5 Sunday: Enthusiasm!
Flappr
Animal Magnetism
A View From The Beach
EBL

In The Mailbox: 09.16.24
A View From The Beach
EBL
357 Magnum

In The Mailbox: 09.18.24 (Morning Edition)
A View From The Beach
EBL
357 Magnum

A Message From the Mossad
American Free News Network
A View From The Beach
EBL
357 Magnum

The Only Trick in Their Bag
The Daley Gator
A View From The Beach
EBL
357 Magnum

In The Mailbox: 09.19.24 (Afternoon Edition)
A View From The Beach
EBL
357 Magnum

In The Mailbox: 9.20.24 (Afternoon Edition)
EBL
357 Magnum

In The Mailbox: 09.20.24 (Evening Edition)
A View From The Beach
EBL
357 Magnum

Top linkers for the week ending September 20:

EBL (11)
(tied) 357 Magnum & A View From The Beach (10)

Thanks to everyone for all the links!

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Category: FMJRA Award

In The Mailbox: 09.20.24 (Evening Edition)

Posted on | September 21, 2024 | Comments Off on In The Mailbox: 09.20.24 (Evening Edition)

— compiled by Wombat-socho

Well, so much for that plan.
Usual weekend deadlines for the usual weekend posts.
Ceterum autem censeo Silicon Valley et Hamas delendam sunt.

Funny how we’re not hearing so much about “stochastic terrorism” any more.

OVER THE TRANSOM
357 Magnum: A Digital Fahrenheit 451
EBL: Kamala: What’s The Plan? also, Hezbollah leader finds out about the Israeli pager attack
Twitchy: Eco Loon Wants To Destroy Your Quality Of Life With Communal Dining & Doing Laundry By Hand, Occasional Cortex Gets Schooled About “Islamophobia” After Whining About Cartoon, and “No One Is Coming For Your Gas Stove”
Louder With Crowder: Alleged gun owner Kamala Harris now claims she will shoot you if you do this
Vox Popoli: Attack on Trump Rally, DBD Arrives on Arktoons, Diddy and Biggie, and The Last Nine
According To Hoyt: Button Counting, Nations and Charities, and The Stodgy Past Generations
Monster Hunter Nation: 17 years ago today I started this blog, also, The Five Points Ripper, out now FREE on Audible
Upstream Reviews: Ordeal In Otherwhere,
Defending The Wood Perilous: Gypsie Princess Effie’s Diary #10 – Laethland Moving Day!
Gab: Embracing Joyful Warriorship

RIPPED FROM THE HEADLINES
Adam Piggott: Edward Feser and the law of non-contradiction, Bergoglio is the perfect Vatican II pope, and When Men Lead, Women will Follow
American Conservative: Why Do the Neocons Deserve the Right’s Loyalty?
American Greatness: DHS and Secret Service Face Lawsuit for Refusing to Release Documents on First Trump Assassination Attempt, House Judiciary Committee Demands Briefing From Wray on Iran Hack of Trump Campaign, DHS Whistleblower Claims Five Assassination Teams Are Currently Pursuing Trump, 58 Dems Voted Against Deporting ‘Non-Citizens’ Who Commit Violence Against Women, and Can Harris’s Cynical, Run-out-the Clock Campaign Succeed?
American Power: Renee DiResta, The People Who Turn Lies into Reality
American Thinker: Three Types of Assassination: The Desperate Effort to Eliminate Trump, Arrested by Kamala: A Black Mother’s Story, and Trump Supporters Apparently Attacked At Rally With Clandestine Weapon
Animal Magnetism: Animal’s Daily Assassination Attempt News, Animal’s Hump Day News, Animal’s Red Thursday News, Animal Magnetism LIVE Ep. 20 – Visions of Seattle and The Downfall of Our Cities, and Rule Five Border Crisis Friday
Babalu Blog: Cuban dictatorship sentences man to prison for sharing memes ridiculing the regime, New regulations on Cuba’s private sector gives Castro dictatorship more tools, and US Senate to vote on $100 million reward for arrest & conviction of Venezuelan dictator Maduro
BattleSwarm: Texas #1! The Hezbollah Pager Attack: How? Israel’s Supply Chain Hack – Manufactured, Not Altered, and LinkSwarm For September 20
Behind The Black: SpaceX and Elon Musk blast the FAA’s red tape again, Brazil approves space bill that appears to crush that country’s future in space, A review of Firefly’s new launch facilities in both the U.S. and Sweden, Land of cracks, and Boeing replaces the head of its defense/space/security division
Cafe Hayek: Some Economic Fundamentals, Busting Myths About NAFTA, Facebook Protects Defenders of Censorship, and We All Pay the Price for Protectionism
CDR Salamander: Fullbore Friday
Chicago Boyz: You Don’t Hate the Media Enough (3): Chaffapalooza Edition, The Most Wrecked House on the Market, Life in the Fully Politicized Society, and Loud Exhaust and Public Space
Da Tech Guy: If I’m Trump I Hire the Mossad to Guard Me, Paging Hezbollah – Not Anti-War, Just in Favor of Dead Jews, and I very much prefer the Heinleinian universe over the Asimovian universe
Don Surber: Making a House seat an inheritance
First Street Journal: Passenger rail in France, #Hezbollah’s pagers go boom, #AntiSemites wax wroth, In the end, hiding from your enemies just doesn’t work, and Democrisy! The party of more and more gun control are now buying themselves more guns
Gates Of Vienna: French People Need Not Apply, An Intifada in Paris, Geert Wilders: Our Prisons Are Full of Non-Western Foreigners, An Allahu Akhbar Moment in Rotterdam, and Alice Weidel: “You Are Robbing Millions of Voters of Their Full Parliamentary Representation”
The Geller Report: Antisemitic Activist Says Calls to Kill Jews ‘Not Hate Speech’ During Senate Anti-Semitism Hearing, Biden and Harris Ordered Border Patrol Agents to Hide the Number of Terrorists Crossing Over Our Border, and New Bombshell Transcript: General Mark Milley Admits Trump Ordered the National Guard Deployed to Ensure a Peaceful Protest on J6
Hollywood In Toto: Lorne Michaels In Shocking Denial About ‘SNL’s’ Liberal Bias, CNN’s ‘News’ Mocks Trumps, Joke Implodes on Cast, Six Myths That Define the American Psyche in Cinema, The Substance Turns Body Horror Into Sheer Revulsion, and Civil War Will Be Watched, and Studied for Years
The Lid: California’s Jobs-Killing Minimum Wage Law Ends 6,000 Jobs In Fast Food Sector In Just 5 Months
Legal Insurrection: WHO Authorizes First Monkeypox Vaccine to Combat Africa’s Current Outbreak, 158 Democrats Oppose Bill Deporting Noncitizens Convicted of Sex Crimes, Experts Predict Illegal Aliens Will Cast Almost Three Million Ballots in Election, Harris’s Profound Vapidity on Display at Livestream Event With Oprah Winfrey, and Jill Biden Kicks Off Joe Biden’s First Cabinet Meeting in 11 Months
Nebraska Energy Observer: Straight from, They’re Eating the Dawgs, College , and Scattershot Friday
Outkick: Norman Buzzing As Boos Welcome Tennessee Fans Strolling Campus, While Oklahoma Fans ‘Grateful’ For Josh Heupel, If Florida Loses To Miss State, That Should Be It For Billy Napier, And Scott Stricklin Won’t Make Next Hire, USA Today Tries To Bully Caitlin Clark And Patrick Mahomes Into Endorsing Kamala Harris, The Already Wild MLB Playoff Picture Just Got A Lot Crazier, and Crystal Hefner Finds A New Lover After Bashing Hugh, Horny Seniors Have The CDC On Alert & Lane Kiffin’s GF
Power Line: It only hurts when I laugh, Pondering Pomo Perversity, Further Bureau Intrigue, and Thoughts from the ammo line
Protein Wisdom Reborn: Mental Sorbet 2
Shark Tank: Walz & Moskowitz Introduce Bill Increasing Law Enforcement Access To DoD Gear
Shot In The Dark: School’s Out, Self-Fulfilling, The Minnesota Prototype, Jackboots Of Joy, and Berg’s 20th Law Goes 33 For 33
STUMP: Cuomo, COVID, & The Nursing Homes Part II
The Political Hat: Welcoming Wolves Into The Flock, Eco-Nazi Germans Fantasizing About Murdering Their Enemies…Again, Quick Takes – University DEI Offices Die, and Free to Choose Friday, Revisited (Part 4)
This Ain’t Hell: Israelis End Beirut Bomber, Marine veteran sentenced to prison for selling ‘ghost guns’, Antony Blinken sez US not involved with exploding Hezbollah pagers, Germans testing gas-piston ARs in Panama, and Valor Friday
Transterrestrial Musings: The Shame At Turtle Bay, The Latest In The People’s Republic Of California, The Ideology Of Societal Collapse, How Democrats Vote and What Is Really Happening In Springfield
Victory Girls: “Casual cruelty” of Sarah Huckabee Sanders Dig At Kamala Harris, New Columbia President Apologizes To Protesters For Their “Hurt”, Despite Rank & File Support For Trump, Teamsters Punt On Endorsement, Kamala Harris Cannot Be Parodied, and Dems And Media: OUR Violent Rhetoric Isn’t The Problem, Trump’s Is
Volokh Conspiracy: A Critique of Justice Kagan’s Supreme Court Ethics Reform Proposal
Watts Up With That: The Math Does Not Support New York’s Climate Plan, Replace Green Giveaways with Development of Fossil Fuels, Just Another Frivolous Climate Lawsuit, and EV Sales Collapse in Germany
The Federalist: Pennsylvania County Ditches Drop Boxes, Citing Security Concerns, Election Integrity Advocates Can Inspect South Carolina Voter Rolls, Federal Judge Rules, A Christian Fantasy Series That’s Sure To Delight All Ages, Leftist ‘Voter Guide’ Group Pushes Its Way Into Universities, and Calls Grow For Nebraska Republicans To Adopt Winner-Take-All System Before 2024 Election
Mark Steyn: Ring, Ring, Live Around the Planet, Beyond the Margin of Steal, Incuriouser and Incuriouser, and The Last Photocopier in the Woods

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Category: Linkagery

In The Mailbox: 9.20.24 (Afternoon Edition)

Posted on | September 20, 2024 | Comments Off on In The Mailbox: 9.20.24 (Afternoon Edition)

— compiled by Wombat-socho

Apologies for all the late & abbreviated posts this week. Been really tired in the evenings lately, which doesn’t bode well for my hajj to the holy city of Oak Ridge next week. I’ll pitch into this evening’s linkfest immediately after my Senators face the O’s tonight.
Silicon Valley et Hamas delenda sunt.