The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler


Posted on | November 4, 2012 | 40 Comments

Ali Akbar stayed up all night crunching numbers for an election analysis that’s going to blow some peoples’ minds later today. A few hints:

Is the media trying to play a Jedi mind-trick on us? Have the manufacturers of the Conventional Wisdom sold us a prefabricated narrative about a surge of enthusiasm for Obama, with the intent of using bandwagon psychology to discourage Republicans and tip undecided voters toward the Democrat?

Does a wild bear defecate in the forest?

In some future textbook about media bias, it will be noted that on the Sunday before Election Day 2012, a New York Times article about get-out-the-vote operations in Ohio buried this fact in the 57th paragraph:

“This is the first time in many cycles that the Republican presidential campaign has emphasized door-knocking over phone banks,” [Romney campaign Ohio field director Scott] Jennings said. Across Ohio, he said, Mr. Romney’s campaign is knocking on 19 times as many doors as Senator John McCain’s campaign did four years ago.

As Perry White of the Daily Planet might say, “Great Caesar’s ghost!” Isn’t this the most important fact in the entire story, Lois Lane? A historically unprecedented Republican door-to-door canvassing operation in what both sides agree is the most crucial swing state of them all? And this is in the 57th paragraph?

Meanwhile, last night, Nate Silver increased his Magical Projection Model™ number to better than 4-to-1 odds against a Romney win.

The question that faces us today — and I’m gonna need a nap at some point, after Ali woke me up before 8 a.m. with his numbers — is whether:

  • A. We should stick with our original plan to drive to Boston for Romney’s Tuesday night victory celebration; or
  • B. Ride it out here in Ohio all the way, and attend Tuesday’s Ohio victory party at the Renaissance Hotel in Columbus?

Let the readers and tip-jar hitters decide.

Either way, we’re going all the way to Election Night until this campaign (and, if need be, the recount) is over.




  • Mark Anderson

    To say that Nate Silver’s method is magical just shows why only 6% of scientists are Republican. See you Tuesday.

  • Steven_W

    Hey – we’re Americans – with the magic of television – can’t you do both? GO R&R GO!

  • datechguy

    If you end up staying their then I’ll skip Dixville Knoch but if you come here I’ll hit it with you

  • joethefatman

    57th paragraph for 57 states?

  • Buge Halls

    As soon as I saw the article by Nate Silver on his website that said Friday’s jobs report (with 171,000 jobs created) was “reasonably strong” I knew this guy was yet one more leftist shill! 171,000 jobs created and 170,000 new jobless claims is considered “reasonably strong”? Hah!

  • Mike Rogers

    Happy to see you if you make it here, but I’ll also enjoy the on-the-ground reports from Ohio.
    Let me know. Also, if you make a mad dash last minute to dixville notch, I’ll try to help with accom en route.

  • Wombat_socho

    Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

  • rosalie

    Let’s hope it’s a decisive victory for us and we don’t have to go through the agony of a recount. “Does a wild bear defecate in the forest?” Yes, but they have been known to defecate on front lawns in residential areas too. That happened to us twice.

  • Charles

    Do you want to party, gloat, or lick you wounds?

  • jwallin

    “I’d say there’s an 85.1% likelihood of that Tuesday.”

    I am revising Stacy’s figure to 85.135% likelihood of the media destroying their own credibility.

    (Because a pulling-it-out-of-my-ass number sounds soooo much more scientific carried out to 3 decimal places.)

    /off channeling nate silver

  • Dobby

    There’s a 99.7% chance that Nate Silver will be no longer be taken seriously after Tuesday.

  • steveb

    This will be a blowout for President Romney. President Romney… I love the sound of that.

  • steveb

    And which blatantly dishonest media organ of the party of liars told you that figure? Is that your way of telling yourself you’re smarter than republicans? I mean, any fool could see the results the last 4 years of your ” superior intelligence”, but somehow…you can’t. Click your heels three times, Dorothy. You’re in for a very bad day on Tuesday.

  • htowt
  • richard mcenroe

    I believe that’s “6% of scientists sucking on the gummint/academia teat…” FIFY

  • richard mcenroe

    94% of Democratic scientists working for the gummint & FEMA were suprised a hurricane caused flooding.

  • Soylent Green

    I’d say stay in Ohio. The booze is cheaper. So is everything else.

  • MM

    Ohio. A Noreaster is headed towards New England.

  • Adjoran

    Apparently all this hype and the joke polling has created a situation where nearly all of Obama’s supporters are convinced he will win. Some are threatening to riot if he doesn’t.

    Shoot rioters on sight, shoot looters to kill, no taxpayer money to rebuild when rioters destroy their own neighborhoods again.

  • slp

    You should stay in Ohio and report what is happening on the ground.

  • Rich Vail

    While staying OH would be sweet…I suspect being near the candidate would be best for your reporting.

  • riverlifecallie

    I vote for Boston because I would love to have your “in person” take on President Romney’s victory celebration – with pictures.

  • Dianna Deeley

    If he wants to lick wounds, he should be in California. It’s going to be a bittersweet night out here.

  • Dianna Deeley

    Ohio. It’s where the action will be.

    In a way, it’s almost strange to think of Romney waiting for the victory party in Boston – it’s going to be rather like California, in that it won’t stop being Democrat, even if Romney wins.

  • Jackie Wellfonder

    I commented on Ali’s FB too, while I’d love you guys to stay in Ohio to keep an eye on things, I wouldn’t want to miss the VICTORY party for the world 😉 Off to Boston!!

  • Evi L. Bloggerlady

    I do love pudding.

  • Finrod Felagund

    My $0.03 would be that if you think Ohio is won, then go to Boston. If not, then stay in Ohio because that is where the action will be.

  • Finrod Felagund

    Oh, and one of the standard election correlations: the Washington Redskins winning their final home game before the election favors the incumbent, and they lost to Carolina 13-21.

  • tomg

    Boston. When you’re done reporting, you can step outside and gloat.

  • Bob Belvedere

    He’s right! Priorities, Stacy, priorities.

  • Bob Belvedere

    If they’re not rioting in Boston.

  • Soylent Green
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  • ChuckUnderscore

    Please come to Boston. It will be worth the trip.


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  • Coast to Coast

    Ha Ha Ha.. I didn’t think it could be true but you guys really thought you were going to win – and never bothered analysing the polls… Seriously???