OK, after reading Karl’s Hot Air post, I’m starting to feel a bit embarrassed about my own grim outlook on the fall elections: Am I too pessimistic? Am I turning into Allahpundit?
Let me explain: I was at Doug Hoffman’s headquarters in Saranac Lake, N.Y., the night he came up short, and I was at Tim Burns’ headquarters in Washington, Pa., the night he came up short. So I’ve seen the agony of defeat at close range, and I know what disappointed hope looks like.
By contrast, I was in Boston for the Scott Brown victory celebration when the confetti rained down and the band played and the AOSHQ crew broke out the pudding. Miracles can happen and, if a Republican can win Ted Kennedy’s seat, nothing is impossible.
So let me give you a reason for optimism: Randy Altschuler in New York’s 1st District has $1.8 million cash on hand, compared to $1.4 million for incumbent Democrat Rep. Tim Bishop. The bad news is that Altschuler is in a Republican primary against GOP establishment candidate Chris Cox, who’s got more than $800,000 cash on hand.
Meanwhile, in NY-23, our hero Doug Hoffman has about $200,000 cash on hand and is facing a GOP primary against an establishment candidate, Matt Doheny, who’s got nearly $700,000. And the (Dede-endorsed) Democrat incumbent, Rep. Bill Owens, is sitting on $600,000.
Go back to Jim Geraghty’s list of 99 most feasible Republican pickups for November and from the “Blue” (easy) category choose MD-1. This district, containing the Eastern Shore area of Maryland, was long represented by moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest, who routinely won 2-to-1 landslides, but lost the 2008 GOP primary to conservative challenger Andy Harris. But when the Obama tide hit in November 2008, Harris lost narrowly (49%-48%) to Democrat Frank Kratovil.
MD-1 looks like a sure bet to flip back to the Republicans this fall. However, as of June 30, Kratovil had $1.3 million cash on hand, whereas there are two leading GOP candidates in the Sept. 14 primary, Harris (about $900,000 cash on hand) and Rob Fisher (about $240,000 cash on hand).
So here you’ve got what should be an easy win for the GOP — and yet (a) the Democrat’s got a significant money advantage and (b) the Republicans must fight out a primary battle that won’t end until seven weeks before Election Day.
Returning to Geraghty’s list, let’s pick one from the “Green” category (“should be GOP wins”): PA-3, up near Lake Erie, a district won by George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. In 2008, however, the Obama wave lifted Kathleen Dahlkemper to a 52-48 win over third-term incumbent Phil English. As of June 30, Dahlkemper was sitting on $1 million in campaign cash, while her GOP opponent, Mike Kelly, had a measly $100,000.
You see why I’m worried, folks? Republicans need to gain 40 seats to take over the House. When you combine the “Blue” and “Green” categories in Geraghty’s list, the total is 39 seats, and some of those races might be a lot tougher for the GOP than Geraghty thinks. “Blue Dog” Democrat Rep. Bobby Bright in AL-2, for example, got lucky when the Republican establishment lined up behind Martha Roby, who isn’t exactly a dynamic political personality. As of June 30, Bright had $730,000 compared to Roby’s $120,000.
Moving up to the “Yellow” (50/50) category, we find we’re in the same range as PA-12. How’s our friend Tim Burns doing since the May 19 special election? As of June 30, he was about even with Democrat Mark Critz in cash-on-hand. Another race I’m following is Ray McKinney in GA-12. As of June 30, Ray’s opponent, incumbent Democrat Rep. John Barrow, had more than $600,000 cash on hand, compared to less than $80,000 for McKinney.
Money isn’t everything, but it’s essential to running any political campaign and, almost everywhere, we see Republican challengers at a significant financial disadvantage to the Democrat incumbents they must beat if the prophecies of a GOP House majority are to be fulfilled.
These candidates can’t depend on the Washington-based Republican establishment to bail them out. RNC reportedly has only $5 million cash on hand. The NRCC has $17 million, compared to $33 million for the DCCC.
If conservatives online don’t start paying attention, Nov. 2 may be another one of those “agony of defeat” moments — a long night of tearful Republican concession speeches that brings smiles to the faces of Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann.
And nobody wants to see that, right?
Given limited funds, Stacy, Is it appropriate to ask which two or three candidates I should support monetarily? You may not want to make any recommendations, but none of them are in the area that I live so I need some guidance into how I should best spend what little money I have.
And yes, I will send some money to the tip jar when I next get paid. :^)
Thanks
Given limited funds, Stacy, Is it appropriate to ask which two or three candidates I should support monetarily? You may not want to make any recommendations, but none of them are in the area that I live so I need some guidance into how I should best spend what little money I have.
And yes, I will send some money to the tip jar when I next get paid. :^)
Thanks
“5 million dollars in cash on hand”
That’s an absolute disgrace. The key to November 2 will be a massive GOTV effort to get every single disgruntled voter to the polling places so that the tide can be turned back. Anything else is a sham. You HAVE to get people to the polls. You HAVE to organize and orchestrate this. Apathy is the death of any effort to make change a reality.
With limited funds on hand, Michael Steele proves he is the man to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s too late to get rid of him, too soon to tell if this matters.
“5 million dollars in cash on hand”
That’s an absolute disgrace. The key to November 2 will be a massive GOTV effort to get every single disgruntled voter to the polling places so that the tide can be turned back. Anything else is a sham. You HAVE to get people to the polls. You HAVE to organize and orchestrate this. Apathy is the death of any effort to make change a reality.
With limited funds on hand, Michael Steele proves he is the man to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s too late to get rid of him, too soon to tell if this matters.
“5 million dollars in cash on hand”
That’s an absolute disgrace. The key to November 2 will be a massive GOTV effort to get every single disgruntled voter to the polling places so that the tide can be turned back. Anything else is a sham. You HAVE to get people to the polls. You HAVE to organize and orchestrate this. Apathy is the death of any effort to make change a reality.
With limited funds on hand, Michael Steele proves he is the man to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s too late to get rid of him, too soon to tell if this matters.
you conservatives want to control what people do us liberals don’t hey you stop smoking or we will throw you in jail forever btw teh gop wants to loer taxes for teh rich and wants to give us the heartbreak
/Obaoma
you conservatives want to control what people do us liberals don’t hey you stop smoking or we will throw you in jail forever btw teh gop wants to loer taxes for teh rich and wants to give us the heartbreak
/Obaoma
Wish I had $17 million on hand… or even $600.000
Wish I had $17 million on hand… or even $600.000
Wish I had $17 million on hand… or even $600.000
The GOP started losing donors (I am one) when it became obvious in 2005 that Rove + GWB had in fact remade the GOP as the “new” progressive party. In 04 we heard all the lies from the GOP liberals how they only voted in the Nany State laws GWB pushed for “party unity” and that after winning control of Congress again they would repeal those collectivist laws they had passed from 01 – 04. Instead they passed more collectivist/NannyState laws. The same lefties who ran the GOP in 05 are there today. After promising in 06 what they promised in 04 and then in the next Congress the helped GWB take over GM by voting for TARP!
Why would a conservative give money th the GOP when it is still controlled by the same lefties who have been there for years?
Why would a liberal give the GOP money when at least the Dems are more honest about their politics?
That the GOP is behind on $ is *NOT* news. It is a 5 year trend. One that will continue as long as the collectivists run the party. Unless the get some integrity and start saying that they really are liberals and not conservatives as they have said the last 10 years; then they may get some of the $ no longer going to the Dems.
The GOP started losing donors (I am one) when it became obvious in 2005 that Rove + GWB had in fact remade the GOP as the “new” progressive party. In 04 we heard all the lies from the GOP liberals how they only voted in the Nany State laws GWB pushed for “party unity” and that after winning control of Congress again they would repeal those collectivist laws they had passed from 01 – 04. Instead they passed more collectivist/NannyState laws. The same lefties who ran the GOP in 05 are there today. After promising in 06 what they promised in 04 and then in the next Congress the helped GWB take over GM by voting for TARP!
Why would a conservative give money th the GOP when it is still controlled by the same lefties who have been there for years?
Why would a liberal give the GOP money when at least the Dems are more honest about their politics?
That the GOP is behind on $ is *NOT* news. It is a 5 year trend. One that will continue as long as the collectivists run the party. Unless the get some integrity and start saying that they really are liberals and not conservatives as they have said the last 10 years; then they may get some of the $ no longer going to the Dems.
The GOP started losing donors (I am one) when it became obvious in 2005 that Rove + GWB had in fact remade the GOP as the “new” progressive party. In 04 we heard all the lies from the GOP liberals how they only voted in the Nany State laws GWB pushed for “party unity” and that after winning control of Congress again they would repeal those collectivist laws they had passed from 01 – 04. Instead they passed more collectivist/NannyState laws. The same lefties who ran the GOP in 05 are there today. After promising in 06 what they promised in 04 and then in the next Congress the helped GWB take over GM by voting for TARP!
Why would a conservative give money th the GOP when it is still controlled by the same lefties who have been there for years?
Why would a liberal give the GOP money when at least the Dems are more honest about their politics?
That the GOP is behind on $ is *NOT* news. It is a 5 year trend. One that will continue as long as the collectivists run the party. Unless the get some integrity and start saying that they really are liberals and not conservatives as they have said the last 10 years; then they may get some of the $ no longer going to the Dems.
well said rod that is why you need to vote in conservatives
well said rod that is why you need to vote in conservatives
well said rod that is why you need to vote in conservatives
btw bayam over at hot air is blaming te economic collapse on the replubican and their tax cuts honestly i hope that pro-obama pro-jihadist nutjob gets put in front of a firing squad when the economy collapses due to the democraps evil
btw bayam over at hot air is blaming te economic collapse on the replubican and their tax cuts honestly i hope that pro-obama pro-jihadist nutjob gets put in front of a firing squad when the economy collapses due to the democraps evil
And Tancredo is shooting the Republicans in the foot in Colorado.
And Tancredo is shooting the Republicans in the foot in Colorado.
And Tancredo is shooting the Republicans in the foot in Colorado.
@Rod
Hell yes. I’ve been thinking that the GOP has blown it with too much of their base. Between the policies and knowing that people like (John) McCain — the Republican presidential candidate — was on the same payroll as many of the Democrats (receiving money from the likes of Kerry and Sorros) … they’ve blown it.
At what point do we stop differentiating between the Republican Party and the Democrat Party, and just start calling it “The Party”?
@Rod
Hell yes. I’ve been thinking that the GOP has blown it with too much of their base. Between the policies and knowing that people like (John) McCain — the Republican presidential candidate — was on the same payroll as many of the Democrats (receiving money from the likes of Kerry and Sorros) … they’ve blown it.
At what point do we stop differentiating between the Republican Party and the Democrat Party, and just start calling it “The Party”?
@Rod
Hell yes. I’ve been thinking that the GOP has blown it with too much of their base. Between the policies and knowing that people like (John) McCain — the Republican presidential candidate — was on the same payroll as many of the Democrats (receiving money from the likes of Kerry and Sorros) … they’ve blown it.
At what point do we stop differentiating between the Republican Party and the Democrat Party, and just start calling it “The Party”?
Well, when pessimism is prevalent, one needs a stress reliever. May I suggest… The. Greatest. Movie. Headline. Ever.
http://cbullitt.wordpress.com/2010/08/20/headline-of-the-day-carla-gugino-to-star-in-milf-revenge-movie/
Well, when pessimism is prevalent, one needs a stress reliever. May I suggest… The. Greatest. Movie. Headline. Ever.
http://cbullitt.wordpress.com/2010/08/20/headline-of-the-day-carla-gugino-to-star-in-milf-revenge-movie/
Remember, Mike Kelly in PA-03 is a VERY wealthy man, even if he is a poor fundraiser. He owns a few car dealerships up in the district and since the May elections has been constantly running TV commercials for his business; voters see Mike Kelly’s name and image all day long.
He is in better condition than his campaign coffers would lead you to believe.
Remember, Mike Kelly in PA-03 is a VERY wealthy man, even if he is a poor fundraiser. He owns a few car dealerships up in the district and since the May elections has been constantly running TV commercials for his business; voters see Mike Kelly’s name and image all day long.
He is in better condition than his campaign coffers would lead you to believe.
All,
$ is an issue. Trust the American people – everyday the D’s tell everyone what they need to know. Michael Steele, is not a great fund raiser, granted. Thanks to his investment in NJ & VA we flipped two Govs. In VA he left behind a stronger Repub party – Just ask Periello & Nye if you doubt that.
The D’s may have the $, they don’t have the votes – they don’t have the troops – SSEIU couldn’t overcome the Scott Brown situation. New York will take 10 years of effort to fix – I can’t tell and R from a D in that state. But the Mosque is going to force SEIU into NY to protect what they have. If they are there, they are not in PA.
Blanche Lincoln is gone. Burr is looking safe. Rubio is staying calm, looks like Meek will be the D and CC will collapse.
Will there be disapppointments? Sure, but there will be many more pleasant surprises. Why do I think that? Because in every state that’s been given a chance to express through votes that they hate Obamacare, debt and deficits the American people have come thru – NJ, VA, MA, Missourri – and MO was a win for liberty despite a tricky wording designed to full you into voting No – where Yes was the liberty answer.
In my office there are groups who meet in living rooms, 9/12 groups – they can’t afford to donate, but they move people from progressive to middle and middle to conservative. They will all be at the polls…
All,
$ is an issue. Trust the American people – everyday the D’s tell everyone what they need to know. Michael Steele, is not a great fund raiser, granted. Thanks to his investment in NJ & VA we flipped two Govs. In VA he left behind a stronger Repub party – Just ask Periello & Nye if you doubt that.
The D’s may have the $, they don’t have the votes – they don’t have the troops – SSEIU couldn’t overcome the Scott Brown situation. New York will take 10 years of effort to fix – I can’t tell and R from a D in that state. But the Mosque is going to force SEIU into NY to protect what they have. If they are there, they are not in PA.
Blanche Lincoln is gone. Burr is looking safe. Rubio is staying calm, looks like Meek will be the D and CC will collapse.
Will there be disapppointments? Sure, but there will be many more pleasant surprises. Why do I think that? Because in every state that’s been given a chance to express through votes that they hate Obamacare, debt and deficits the American people have come thru – NJ, VA, MA, Missourri – and MO was a win for liberty despite a tricky wording designed to full you into voting No – where Yes was the liberty answer.
In my office there are groups who meet in living rooms, 9/12 groups – they can’t afford to donate, but they move people from progressive to middle and middle to conservative. They will all be at the polls…
All,
$ is an issue. Trust the American people – everyday the D’s tell everyone what they need to know. Michael Steele, is not a great fund raiser, granted. Thanks to his investment in NJ & VA we flipped two Govs. In VA he left behind a stronger Repub party – Just ask Periello & Nye if you doubt that.
The D’s may have the $, they don’t have the votes – they don’t have the troops – SSEIU couldn’t overcome the Scott Brown situation. New York will take 10 years of effort to fix – I can’t tell and R from a D in that state. But the Mosque is going to force SEIU into NY to protect what they have. If they are there, they are not in PA.
Blanche Lincoln is gone. Burr is looking safe. Rubio is staying calm, looks like Meek will be the D and CC will collapse.
Will there be disapppointments? Sure, but there will be many more pleasant surprises. Why do I think that? Because in every state that’s been given a chance to express through votes that they hate Obamacare, debt and deficits the American people have come thru – NJ, VA, MA, Missourri – and MO was a win for liberty despite a tricky wording designed to full you into voting No – where Yes was the liberty answer.
In my office there are groups who meet in living rooms, 9/12 groups – they can’t afford to donate, but they move people from progressive to middle and middle to conservative. They will all be at the polls…
Two thoughts:
1) Who HAS money to give? The liberal elite class or the working class? I don’t know about anyone else here, but I have no idea how I’m going to pay my mortgage next month, or the month after. And, NO, I’m not aiming for an Uncle Obama bailout!! So here I am, trying to choose: scrape together enough to pay the mortgage or send five bucks to a political campaign that is cryin’ over wanting a million. Not a tough call.
2) Again, speaking for myself, I have HAD IT with being lied to. Mark my words, if the Rs win in November, they’ll think it is all about them. I don’t want it to be all about them. I want a whole bunch of public servants that give a damn about the USA, not about the R Party or the D Party. And this era of the R Party is all about meekly maintaining the status quo and sitting on their behinds and wringing their hands in consternation over when the D Party is going to regain control. I see ZERO value in spending my hard earned money to help send a bunch of garden slugs to work the salt mine!
Sorry for the rant.
-brian
Brian D. Paasch
Two thoughts:
1) Who HAS money to give? The liberal elite class or the working class? I don’t know about anyone else here, but I have no idea how I’m going to pay my mortgage next month, or the month after. And, NO, I’m not aiming for an Uncle Obama bailout!! So here I am, trying to choose: scrape together enough to pay the mortgage or send five bucks to a political campaign that is cryin’ over wanting a million. Not a tough call.
2) Again, speaking for myself, I have HAD IT with being lied to. Mark my words, if the Rs win in November, they’ll think it is all about them. I don’t want it to be all about them. I want a whole bunch of public servants that give a damn about the USA, not about the R Party or the D Party. And this era of the R Party is all about meekly maintaining the status quo and sitting on their behinds and wringing their hands in consternation over when the D Party is going to regain control. I see ZERO value in spending my hard earned money to help send a bunch of garden slugs to work the salt mine!
Sorry for the rant.
-brian
Brian D. Paasch
GOOOH, might be a factor the next election…
GOOOH, might be a factor the next election…
I second Rod. The trend has been bad for a long time and shows no sign of changing.
And Brian is right as well. If the Rs do win the House they will immediately begin trying to consolidate control through Your Tax Dollars At Work. Not that having the House, the Senate, and the White House would make all that much difference anyway.
I second Rod. The trend has been bad for a long time and shows no sign of changing.
And Brian is right as well. If the Rs do win the House they will immediately begin trying to consolidate control through Your Tax Dollars At Work. Not that having the House, the Senate, and the White House would make all that much difference anyway.
I second Rod. The trend has been bad for a long time and shows no sign of changing.
And Brian is right as well. If the Rs do win the House they will immediately begin trying to consolidate control through Your Tax Dollars At Work. Not that having the House, the Senate, and the White House would make all that much difference anyway.
Brian:great rant. Did we really expect to be doing as well as the Social Democrats in fund raising? After insurgents who have successfully pushed out establishment candidates how much money do we expect them to have after that? Didn’t we know that to win we were counting on more people being pissed not to mention shocked at how far left these Bolsheviks really are?
National polls don’t translate into local election victories but it seems to me that more people than not are aware that the Social Democrats CAN NOT fix the economy even if they don’t realize how much they’re screwing every else up.
As much as relatively unpolitical people still loathe the Republicans doesn’t mean they have faith in two more years of the last two years leadership.
Brian:great rant. Did we really expect to be doing as well as the Social Democrats in fund raising? After insurgents who have successfully pushed out establishment candidates how much money do we expect them to have after that? Didn’t we know that to win we were counting on more people being pissed not to mention shocked at how far left these Bolsheviks really are?
National polls don’t translate into local election victories but it seems to me that more people than not are aware that the Social Democrats CAN NOT fix the economy even if they don’t realize how much they’re screwing every else up.
As much as relatively unpolitical people still loathe the Republicans doesn’t mean they have faith in two more years of the last two years leadership.
linked!
linked!
So who do you think will be our presidential candidate in 2012?
Palin and Newt? Nope. I doubt Palin is going to run. Mitt and Huck? Nope. Pawlenty? Maybe but I am not jumping up and down. We reallly need to get someone to run who can beat Obama. Don’t kid yourself, a good candidate is required no matter how negative things get.
Dems made that mistake with Kerry (a sucky candidate). We cannot do the same.
So who do you think will be our presidential candidate in 2012?
Palin and Newt? Nope. I doubt Palin is going to run. Mitt and Huck? Nope. Pawlenty? Maybe but I am not jumping up and down. We reallly need to get someone to run who can beat Obama. Don’t kid yourself, a good candidate is required no matter how negative things get.
Dems made that mistake with Kerry (a sucky candidate). We cannot do the same.
[…] The Other McCain: Gulp. Is the GOP Heading for Heartbreak? […]
[…] 2010 — nicedeb We’ll introduce this week’s TBF poll with some thoughts from The Other McCain: “These candidates can’t depend on the Washington-based Republican establishment to bail […]
The RNC kitty is starving because of the nonsense that Steele has been pulling. The rest of the establishment is not helping either.
VA, NJ and Scott Brown are merely exceptions to business as usual for the establishment.
None of this is news. The Republicans were the first true leftist party in the country. They were Jacobins in the 1850s and transmogrified into the liberal establishment that took over both parties by 1960. The Neocons, the right-wing of the Dimocrats, are Jacobins as well, sending our troops abroad looking for monsters to slay. What one party has passed, the other consolidated. The Reps have never made a serious attempt to shove FedGov back into its constitutional cage, and the establishment is no more inclined to do so now than they were in 1880.
I feel much the same as Stacy does, but anyone that thinks the destruction the Dims will take in November is going to make much difference in the scheme of things, you are deluded. This is why Gerald Celente’s prediction of the establishment of a conservative party in the near future will most likely be fulfilled. I’ve been hearing that a takeover of the Republican party is the only chance for conservatives since I got out of High School in ’72. hasn’t happened because the establishment pretty much (Still) owns the fundraising and had control of the funds and lines of communication.
Politics has become just a matter of having your people in power so you rob the country to reward your people. Buchanan was right about the two parties just being two wings on the same bird of prey. We’ll get a few bones, but the rest of the time we’ll be ignored. Just show and vote for the people they anoint, like good little boys, then go back home until we need you again.
Frankly, this election is the last hurrah for the renamed Whigs. I’ll give to individuals, but never again to the RNC, or other alphabets owned by the establishment. The Rep establishment hasn’t learned their lesson, and I doubt they ever will. They have too many rice bowls to fill.
The RNC kitty is starving because of the nonsense that Steele has been pulling. The rest of the establishment is not helping either.
VA, NJ and Scott Brown are merely exceptions to business as usual for the establishment.
None of this is news. The Republicans were the first true leftist party in the country. They were Jacobins in the 1850s and transmogrified into the liberal establishment that took over both parties by 1960. The Neocons, the right-wing of the Dimocrats, are Jacobins as well, sending our troops abroad looking for monsters to slay. What one party has passed, the other consolidated. The Reps have never made a serious attempt to shove FedGov back into its constitutional cage, and the establishment is no more inclined to do so now than they were in 1880.
I feel much the same as Stacy does, but anyone that thinks the destruction the Dims will take in November is going to make much difference in the scheme of things, you are deluded. This is why Gerald Celente’s prediction of the establishment of a conservative party in the near future will most likely be fulfilled. I’ve been hearing that a takeover of the Republican party is the only chance for conservatives since I got out of High School in ’72. hasn’t happened because the establishment pretty much (Still) owns the fundraising and had control of the funds and lines of communication.
Politics has become just a matter of having your people in power so you rob the country to reward your people. Buchanan was right about the two parties just being two wings on the same bird of prey. We’ll get a few bones, but the rest of the time we’ll be ignored. Just show and vote for the people they anoint, like good little boys, then go back home until we need you again.
Frankly, this election is the last hurrah for the renamed Whigs. I’ll give to individuals, but never again to the RNC, or other alphabets owned by the establishment. The Rep establishment hasn’t learned their lesson, and I doubt they ever will. They have too many rice bowls to fill.
R. S., you make a good point about the money situation. I think that the Dear Leader and his money raising prowess has had some effect on why the Democrats are ahead in that category. But, I believe that the Republicans and conservative Republicans are much more engaged than ever before. The money may not be there now, but it will be. And the ground troops will be as well. Forget Michael Steele. There are hundreds of good, conservative Republican candidates to support with time and money. THAT is what is going to win back congress this time. And, you have inspired me to show up to help John Colbert beat Dear Leader sycophant Adam Schiff here in the California 29th congressional district.
R. S., you make a good point about the money situation. I think that the Dear Leader and his money raising prowess has had some effect on why the Democrats are ahead in that category. But, I believe that the Republicans and conservative Republicans are much more engaged than ever before. The money may not be there now, but it will be. And the ground troops will be as well. Forget Michael Steele. There are hundreds of good, conservative Republican candidates to support with time and money. THAT is what is going to win back congress this time. And, you have inspired me to show up to help John Colbert beat Dear Leader sycophant Adam Schiff here in the California 29th congressional district.