‘Howdy. Thank You, Erick.’

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Those were the first four words of Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s announcement speech at the Red State Gathering in Charleston, S.C., on Aug. 13. At the time, I was the only one who saw Perry’s diss of Iowa Republicans — his deliberate attempt to upstage the Ames Straw Poll held the same day — as an ominous portent of doom.

Perry’s decision to make his announcement in South Carolina was widely viewed at the time as a genius move that would lock down his support in a crucial early primary state, and once he emerged as the most viable conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, Perry would have no trouble making up whatever he’d lost in Iowa by dissing Ames.

Such was the conventional wisdom in August, but now today (via Wombat’s “Live at Five” aggregation) we see this headline:

Cain Takes Lead In South Carolina
ATLANTA — Herman Cain holds a decisive lead in the South Carolina Republican primary, according to a survey conducted Sunday for The Augusta Chronicle.
The InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll of 476 registered voters likely to vote in the GOP primary gave Cain 32 percent, twice the share of Mitt Romney’s 16.
Rick Perry holds 12 percent, making him essentially tied with Romney because the difference is within the 5 percent margin of error.
“In this case, South Carolina is a three-man race,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery. . . .

In a telephone conversation over the weekend, a Perry supporter tried to convince me that the Texas governor is still the only viable alternative to Romney, that Herman Cain can’t possibly win the nomination, and that anyone who is supporting any candidate other than Perry is therefore effectively pro-Romney.

Believe what you want to believe, sweetheart. And for all I know, you may be right. I don’t even get invited to BlogCon, so I must be a complete idiot, which is why Perry is in fifth place — single digits! —  in recent Iowa polls, while The Guy Who Can’t Possibly Win the Nomination is leading Romney by eight points in the Hawkeye State.

I’m a complete idiot who knows nothing about politics or blogging (just ask Tabitha Hale), so it is beyond my ability to explain that, or to fathom why Rick “Viable Alternative” Perry is in sixth place — trailing Jon Huntsman! — in the recent New Hampshire polls.

By the time you get to the Stacy Wasn’t Invited Conference in Denver, my dear Perry-loving friend, maybe all of this will have changed.

Maybe Rick Perry will have bought $15 million worth of debate mojo, and maybe Herman Cain will have forgotten how to tie his own shoes. And then all the bloggers in Denver can laugh at me some more, just like you’ve been laughing at me all along.

If you don’t think I’m an idiot, please: Hit the freaking tip jar!

UPDATE: By the way, I mean to get an explanation from the Cain campaign about this video snippet from ABC News:

Either (a) somebody in Iowa isn’t doing their job right, or (b) ABC News invented a story. Either way, it’s not encouraging.

51 comments

  2. Anyone who will get Mitt “J.A.D.” Romney out of the picture has my endorsement.
    *J.ust
    *A.nother
    *D.emocrat

  4. If Cain doesn’t win Iowa (and he won’t) he’d damn well better win South Carolina or its over for him. The good news on that front is I just saw a poll that has Cain ahead of Romney by a seemingly insurmountable lead in SC. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but it was WAY over ten percent.

    According to Althouse, Cain has a lot of backers in Iowa, including activists affiliated with CATO and the AFB, but I don’t care, if he doesn’t park his ass there for at least a good solid month before the caucuses, he will not come in first, second, or third.

  5. I think people (I know I was) were just happy to see the Iowa Republicans dissed.  You’ll remember that Perry was actually leading in the Iowa polls after his announcement like he was everywhere else.

    Whatever else has happened to his campaign, I don’t think the SC announcement had much to do with it.

  6. !!!!! Dis !!!!!

    You need to protest at OWS.  My wife, upon hearing that the top 450 richest people in the country have more wealth than the rest of us combined wants to go down with a sign:  “The Olsons Twins Have All My Money!” 

  7. Good advice.  Frankly he should focus on Iowa over New Hampshire.  I suspect Cain can do a decent second place in Nevada too. 

  11. If he does well in Iowa, that would help him in New Hampshire as well. I seriously doubt anybody can beat Romney there, but he might be able to come in a respectable second or third place.

    I’ll tell you who could really upset the apple cart in Iowa, and that’s Santorum. If he wins Iowa, which at this stage of the game he would practically have to, then people are going to be taking a serious second look at him, not so much in New Hampshire, but for sure in South Carolina.

  15. His problems are first and foremost Immigration, and then his overall poor performance in the debates. To compound his errors he’s not utilizing his strengths. His line about making government as inconsequential in our lives as possible was very effective even inspiring, that’s exactly what I want from the Oval Office. He should use that line as a greeting instead of hi how are you.

    Some have criticised Perry’s plan for immediately expanding oil and gas exploitation as only a small part of the solution to unemployment. That’s incorrect. Rapid and massive expansion of exploiting energy resources is the single most effective action to expand economic activity that we could take. Cheaper energy makes almost everything we do cheaper. Every thing from manufacturing, to heating our homes, schools and government offices. Oil isn’t just energy but is also the raw material for thousands of products. It would be hard to exaggerate the benefits of drilling from the gulf to the east coast to the arctic and everywhere in between including the everglades.

  16. Yes, he has policy weaknesses in immigration, at least for the primary.  His biggest problem has been the debates.  I think he could have handled immigration a lot better especially.

    We hear a lot about expanding the tax base, and rightfully so.  One of the things about expanding energy production that doesn’t get emphasized enough is the increase in revenue through royalties.

    Attacking some plan because it’s not the Full Solution is silly.  I’d also note that Perry’s just released plan contained stuff about reeling in the EPA.  This is a concrete example of insignificating (can we make that a word?) the Federal government, which conservatives should be all for.  And (as I’ve said before) I think that the regulatory environment is a bigger drag on the economy than anything in the tax code.

  19. Royalties, budget savings to government at every level, like I said hard to exaggerate the benefits, I’d bet with just the commenters here on this site we could cite several hundred different positive contributions.

    Replacing the EPA with an environmental solutions agency is something Newt’s been proposing for a while. Since it’s unlikely Newt becomes president I have the perfect job for him in the White House. He could head the special office to the president for the evisceration and draconian decimation of the federal bureaucracy.

  22. If Santorum did win in Iowa that is a boost for sure.  It would definitely keep his campaign alive a bit longer, but I doubt he ever goes viable front runner (or even second place).  He splits the Yankee vote with Mitt in South Carolina.  I doubt he does well in Nevada. 

  26. He could win Iowa if he would just get there and work at it. The only thing I can think of that might hurt him there is the ethanol subsidies issue, but he could still place a respectable second or third at least. If he doesn’t go he’s looking at fourth or fifth, or worse. Of course there is the point that if he does go there and still doesn’t do good that could bite, so I don’t know, maybe he knows what he’s doing.

  27. Cain is leading in Iowa and he’s not even courting them!  Rove and Will are on the Sunday programs, telling how Cain needs to be blanketing every town and cornfield, beating the drum and enthusing the Hawkeyes.  Meanwhile, Hermanwas in western Tennessee over the weekend, making the talking heads explode.

    Here’s to the ‘Impossible Dream’ in 2012!

  30. […] ‘Howdy. Thank You, Erick.’ : The Other McCain In a telephone conversation over the weekend, a Perry supporter tried to convince me that the Texas governor is still the only viable alternative to Romney, that Herman Cain can’t possibly win the nomination, and that anyone who is supporting any candidate other than Perry is therefore effectively pro-Romney. […]

  33. That Morris News poll showing Cain with a huge lead in SC – 32-16-12 over Romney and Perry – was a one-day poll with a small sample.  It’s definitely a three-man race here, but polls this far out have not been predictive, especially since our primary is on a Saturday, which messes with most of the turnout models.

    They did a similar poll of Florida and found Cain within the margin of error behind Romney, 32-30, with undecided third  16% and Perry  3%.

    Again, I wouldn’t want to put money on the numbers at this stage of the race, but the trend is undeniably toward Cain and away from Perry.

    As in most polls so far, Romney’s support doesn’t move any more than his hair.

  34. Perry is fine on immigration. He has one problem and one problem only. He is a crappy debater. I want somebody that can with one well turned phrase flip Obama over his head and down to the ground, then cut him from stem to stern, clean him, cook his ass and serve him up to his socialist masters with a heaping helping of tartar sauce, then laugh at him when they spit him out and turn away in disgust.

    That is just not Perry.

  35. The big question is, if Gingrich drops out of the race, where will his supporters go? It’s really hard to tell, because Gingrich is such a wild card you can see them going either way, or well I can. This is why Cain (or whoever turns out to be the final anti-Romney) needs to start piling up wins as early and often as possible. Because if and when Gingrich drops out, its hard to tell for sure where his roughly 10+ percent support will go.

  36. Perry is fine on immigration? What campaign have you been watching?
    He went all dreamy acty on our asses in a debate and has been defending that ever since. Coincidentally that’s about the time his poll numbers went all Hindenburgy on him.

  38. Rick Perry also has the problem of being a tax raising RINO who increased spending 85% and the debt 4 times what it originally was.

    He is Huckabee, except a lot less interesting, less ideas, and an inability to connect with others.

  39. LOL…it is obvious advice.

    Regardless, things are looking solid for Cain.  He just needs to keep on doing what he has been doing.

  40. I think Huck is more genuinely compassionate and has a “can’t we just learn to work together” streak that’s wide and deep, two serious character flaws.

  41. Like I said, its hard to tell. What makes a Gingrich supporter. I can see where conservatives would like him, or at least fiscal conservatives, not necessarily SoCons. And I can see why moderates would dig him. I can see where people looking for someone with legislative experience, or government experience in general would be attracted to him, or just for his depth of knowledge and his ideas and his ideals.

    So you tell me, would a Gingrich supporter be more than likely to go to Romney over the perception he’s a moderate supposedly more likely to attract a broad cross-section of voters? Or would he be more attracted to Cain due to his fiscal conservatism and ability to think outside the box and come up with bold solutions to vexing problems. Or would he be more likely to go to Perry due to the more extensive governmental experience and record of job creation by way of just keeping government out of the way of job creators?

    Or maybe Gingrich supporters are such a mix they would be more or less evenly split. I don’t know, but I do know he’s currently fourth in the polls, technically tied with Perry in most polls which have him generally at or just under or above ten percent. That might or might not be significant. It depends on how they break when he leaves the race. Of all the second tier candidates, he’s the only one who’s support is significant. Well, except for Paul, but they’ll never vote for anybody but Paul so he doesn’t matter.

  42. As an Iowan who donated to Cain’s campaign as far back as July, I’ve been utterly perplexed at the Iowa organization (if we can call it that). I’ve also reached out to national office to ask them to get on top of the disarray in the state. People who send money and volunteer to bring votes to the straw poll, and to assist at the county level, shouldn’t be ignored. In fact, I know a half-dozen folks from our corner of the state who went to the straw poll and voted for Bachmann since the Iowa Cain people (do they exist?) did the best job completely ignoring interested supporters.

    Clean house, Cain. Soon. NOW. Whatever the deal is here, rip the band aid off and get competence in charge. Or else… we’re gonna start calling you Fred II.

  43. Multitude, this is what I’ve been saying, only you being a native Iowan you can speak from knowledge and experience. Who would you say is in the best position the way things stand now?

  44. If Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, Perry or Gingrich dropped out, the majority of their supporters go to “anybody but Romney” in what proportion to each isn’t that significant except for Cain’s followers.
    When Huntsman drops out his follower will go to Romney. If Ron Paul drops out his followers will go home or to a park.

    If Christie had gotten in, many of Romney’s followers would have gone to him and maybe a few from each of the others. Christie would also have picked up many of the undecided, it is significant that Romney got almost nothing when Christie didn’t get in. The 32%,16% and 12% the three leaders have leaves 40%. Don’t know what the others have but they share about 20% which leaves 20% undecided. Some of those were probably hoping to support Christie and now don’t know what to do. As they don’t have to decide until the primaries are held in their state 20% could be undecided for a while.

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