Gingrich’s Glass Jaw

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“Mitt Romney won Saturday’s Nevada caucuses with his highest portion of a state’s vote yet, just over 50%, according to certified results released Monday by the Nevada Republican Party.”
— CNN

Remember this headline from Dec. 15?

Billionaire Prepared to Spend $20 Million
on My Blog Newt Gingrich’s Campaign

That was the report that Vegas mogul Sheldon Adelson had pledged his wealth in support of Newt’s “Winning Our Future” super-PAC. However, the New York Times had another headline Saturday:

Gingrich Patron Could Have a Plan B: Romney

Adelson would be perfectly willing to support Romney as the GOP nominee, and that story also explained that some of Romney’s supporters have reached out to Adelson, urging him to pull the plug on Gingrich’s campaign. This exposes Newt’s glaring weakness: With his campaign’s viability so dependent on the super-PAC largesse of a single donor, if Adelson sneezes, Gingrich gets the flu.

Now, let me remind you of what I wrote Friday:

Newt’s current “frontrunner” status is far more fragile than it looks.
Newt’s campaign can only survive a few more humiliating defeats before it implodes from the enormous weight of its utter implausibility. Whereas by contrast, Santorum has always been a long shot. Santorum’s expectations are lower, and he is therefore able to “succeed” with results that would be a bitter disappointment to the supporters of a big-budget frontrunner like Newt.
Gingrich will get stomped Saturday in Nevada. A few weeks from now, when Gingrich’s supporters have seen their man defeated over and over, without a significant win since South Carolina, Newt will quit and endorse Romney.

CBS has a report on the billionaires who have given to super-PACs, and Adelson is the only one backing Newt. Given the hints from Adelson, isn’t is now obvious why Gingrich will ultimately endorse Romney? Newt wouldn’t dare double-cross the patron whose multimillion-dollar donation was the only reason Gingrich wasn’t forced to quit after his fourth-place finish in Iowa and his fifth-place finish in New Hampshire.

So, how long until Newt quits? During his bizarre Saturday night Vegas tantrum, Gingrich predicted “he would emerge as the GOP front-runner again by the Texas primary,” currently scheduled for April 3.

This was evidently an attempt by Newt to push his make-or-break point past Super Tuesday, March 6. And of course, he vowed to take the fight all the way to the August convention in Tampa.

But has Sheldon Adelson signed off on that plan? Or, as I strongly suspect, is Adelson’s multimillion-dollar commitment to the Gingrich campaign likely to end — and his financial support shift to Romney — on or before the morning of March 7? The possibility that Newt might not even make it to Super Tuesday is reflected in this headline:

Tea party leader implores Newt
to get his act together

Will Gingrich and his supporters denounce Judson Philips of Tea Party Nation as part of the “GOP Establishment” and the “elite media”?

No one can say that about Professor Glenn Reynolds, who seems to be supporting someone named “Zeeba.”

57 comments

  1. Dude, if you think Gingrich is going to endorse Romney before the nomination is clearly wrapped up, you’re smoking crack.  Even if Romney wins, I don’t expect Gingrich to endorse him until the lead-up to the convention.

     

  2. So tell me, Stacy, how come your homeboy Rick is posting over on RedState instead of here?

    Bad move on his part, the posters there ripped him to shreds for misrepresenting Newt’s moon colony plans.  150+ comments currently and I can count the ones favorable to him on one hand.

  4. Interesting note on Space Ace Newt and his Moon Plans: Travis  S. Taylor (short form, real rocket scientist) has set hisself down and crunched the numbners, an esoteric concept unfamiliar to Newt, and worked out that to just to get back to the Moon on the level we achieved for JFK would cost $152,000,000.  Building a maintainable outpost… no one can guess yet.

    Where we gonna get the money, Newt?

    Some more crunchy numbers for Gingrinches: (HT: Michelle Malkin)
    Public Policy Polling
    Minnesota:
    Santorum: 29%
    Romney: 27%
    Gingrich: 22%Colorado:
    Romney: 40%
    Santorum: 26%
    Gingrich: 18%Nationally, Rick Santorum is the only Republican contender to beat President Barack Obama head-to-head.Rasmussen Reports PollGeneral Election Match-Ups:
    Santorum: 45%
    Obama: 44%Romney: 43%
    Obama: 47%Gingrich: 41%Obama: 49%

  5. I’m all for the moon colony. If Mitt suggested it Adjoran and a few others would be all for it, and if Rick suggested it, Stacy would be saying it’s been prophesied in the Bible or something. The same people bitching about the cost don’t seem to think shit about the tens of billions of dollars we piss down the drain every year maintaining bases in Europe and Asia, the vast majority of which are wholly unnecessary. Why is that?

  7. RSM did not even do a post on that Rasmussen poll that showed Santorum ahead of Obama.   As for the Red State posters, maybe they do not realize that Rick Santorum did not write that SNL opening skit last Saturday.  

  10. Oh, good grief! Santorum couldn’t even break 10% in Nevada. This is going nowhere. Santorum needs to drop it. 

    Interesting that Stacy is harping on Gingrich’s numbers, but not Santorum’s. That 9.9% is butt-hurtingly bad, and yet I see nary a word about it on this blog.

    I mean, really. I know Stacy’s in the tank for Rick, but actually pimping him goes a bit far, even for a journalist. 

  12. Hey Stacy, please don’t act like the MSM and cherrypick what you report.

    Yes, the facts you report are true.

    But so are the facts that Nevada voting was down significantly over 2008 and that Romney got fewer votes and a smaller percentage than in 2008. And yet Romney’s supposedly a stronger candidate now.

    See Byron York for these numbers.

    I’m not for any of the candidates at this point.

    But bashing Newt when Santorum didn’t even compete in Nevada seems dishonest.

    A more helpful post, it seems to me, would be to point out how, wherever Mitt wins, whether in a whole state or even county by county in Florida, turnout is down.

    Making the case that it’s actually Mitt Romney who supresses turnout and will hurt downticket GOP candidates would actually help all nonRomney candidates, even Santorum – though Santorum has yet to prove that he can increase turnout.

  15. No kidding.  It looks pretty bad when you’re slagging the candidate that came in second when your horse in the horserace came in fourth of four.

    Santorum has yet to break 25 percent *in any election so far*, even though we’ve been down to four candidates now in the last three elections.

  16. $152 million?  Do you realize that Obama’s stimulus was for more than FOUR THOUSAND TIMES that amount?  We could come up with $152M in an afternoon simply by trimming the low-hanging fruit out of the stimulus budget.

    Funny how you’re touting polling numbers when the actual elections are worse than grim for your guy.  If Santorum can’t beat Romney, Gingrich, or Paul in a primary, he doesn’t stand a whelk’s chance in a supernova against Obama, no matter what Rasmussen’s polling in February says.

  20. Give the press some time on that one.  They need to have him forcing 1o year old rape victims to give birth and being forced to give their babies up to adoption first.  

  22. Not true Pagan.  I am a strong supporter of a lunar colony and Mars mission.  Space is our future.  But I also know our fiscal situation warrants some creative thinking on funding such an endeavor.  Had Newt been a wee more conservative and libertarian in his space plans, I would be enthusiastically supporting them.  Rather his plea came off a shameless pandering for Florida space corridor votes.  

  23.  Exactly. The GOP was expecting 70% turnout, and probably ended up getting less than 40%. Now that’s something to worry about in such a hotly contested primary. People either don’t like their choices, or they don’t think someone they do like has a snowball’s chance. And it all goes back to the GOP establishment pressuring Palin out of the race and so obviously in the tank for Romney, it makes me inclined to teach them a real good lesson.

    Then again, maybe I’m being too harsh. The GOP is up against a party comprised of people who are, after all, professional politicians, as opposed to rank amateurs. Sure the GOP are damn good at cutting the throats of some of their own, and their rank-and-file, but other than a relative handful of exceptional politicians like Reagan, the GOP is a sad, sorry excuse for a party.

  24. Richard, you might want to figure out how to make a link that works before beclowning yourself further….

  25.  He was being conservative and libertarian, its just that his critics don’t bother to point out that he was proposing the encouraging of private investment and research, along with government funds and grants. At least Mitt was somewhat honest in his criticism, or put another way, he criticized it from the right perspective, to wit that it would be a bad business investment. I disagree, but at least that was the proper focus of criticism.

    Bottom line if the Chinese beat us there its over. They’ll control everything.

    Where Newt went off the rails was in talking about a potential lunar space colony could someday petition for statehood. Okay, yeah, maybe two or three hundred years down the line. A state should be self-sustaining, capable of engaging in agriculture and/or manufacturing in order to provide an economic base of support. That’s why Washington D.C. would make a piss poor prospect for statehood.

    People see a moon colony as something enclosed by a giant plexiglass dome for all eternity. It might start out that way, but after so long it might be possible to create an atmosphere that is self-sustaining, though it would of course take a lot of time and effort.

    Mainly though I see this as a national security issue, something that would be infinitely more important than defending the fucking Europeans, basically from themselves.

  29. The biggest issue (imho at least) is that the whole moon thing could only be feasible if our infrastructure was good and healthy.  It isn’t.  So this moon stuff is just lunacy to talk about until then (as for the Chinese, I have a feeling they may be more tied up in the near future with earthly pursuits than people realize — everything is not all hunky doorey in the Middle Kingdom).
    But by all means, once the infrastructure is healthy, then go for it.

  30. I understand the reason for writing hard-hitting articles  for Rick Santorum.  I’d like to see him do well.  I’d crawl over broken glass to vote for him in the general.  But you have to get votes for him from the Romney camp, anyway.  Why not do it now instead of destroying Newt, who we must rely on to beat Romney if Rick can’t get his numbers up?

    We all know the baggage on Newt.  I’d still take Newt, and an October Surprise to be named later over Romney.  Supporting Santorum by destroying Newt isn’t working so far, but it sure is helping Romney.

    Find another way.

  31.  I’ve heard estimates that the Apollo mission cost over $150 billion in today’s dollars, but it couldn’t be duplicated at that cost now.  It seems someone left out some zeroes somewhere.

  32.  Well, if he doesn’t beat Romney AND Gingrich AND Paul in several primaries, he won’t get the chance to face Obama anyway.

    Nothing succeeds like success

  34.  Thank. You. Sir. Stacy is doing the same damn thing people used to criticize Michelle Bachmann for doing, and calling her a stalking horse for Romney in the process of doing it. Makes one wonder.

  35.  Admittedly, Newt was going too far when he proposed a lunar colony by the end of his second term, but then again, maybe he sees the urgency of what the situation could become if the Chinese do start making great strides. Still, it is a goal we should work towards. Otherwise, if we don’t, the best case scenario I can see would be a joint collaborative effort to claim the moon on behalf of the UN. For the people of all nations, of course. Just imagine how that would turn out. Then you’ve got those monkeys wanting to interfere with any nation that wants to engage in space exploration outside of their aegis. The next think you know you’ve got some kind of idiotic international treaty to the effect that all space exploration must be conducted for the benefit of all nations, and all that horseshit.

    People need to stop and reason all this shit out, instead of jumping up and down like a bunch of gorillas during mating season ranting and raving and thumping their chests because they don’t like some politician that points it out.

  38. And yet Stacy is going full guns for a guy that endorsed Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey. 

    I could understand the NY-23 thing if not for that inconvenient truth. I would’t agree with it, but I’d understand it. 

  39. Yeah, I know. I just hope for something that isn’t in aid of Romney. I can see people who were personally affronted by Newt staying the course on the anti-Newt bandwagon. I get it. But It’s starting to look like the decision whether we right this ship and turn it around rests with people with connections and pull, and with people who are bearing grudges.

    Which is like trying to pull out of a stall by flashing your lights and turning up the radio.

  40. I never understood that attack on her. Never saw a lick of evidence to support it, either.

    She was just too stiff when being aggressive (like Mitt, oddly enough), and too rah-rah-ish when selling ideas (more like a cheerleader than an educator). That, and the misogyny caucus, was what made her fall down fast, from what I observed.

  45. Well, much as I like hot, heavy gorilla sex it seems a bit much to be calling people who, wisely, point out that the whole moon base thing was 1) a bit of feel good misdirection from some of our  global economic issues; 2) shameless pandering in FL.

    Let’s face it, politicians bring up things like moon bases when they want to stroke the anxieties of a given area’s electorate and/or don’t want to answer questions of immediate pressing concern because they really don’t have any good answers.

    But yep, this naughty monkey would prefer to hear from that “dull Cincinnatus” about fixing under/unemployment and doing something about crumbling roads and bridges….and really doesn’t see where there is a race to the freaking moon with either the Chinese or the Russians (who both have other issues they should be addressing and will be bad for them if they do not…besides, there are better ways of strategically countering any threat from a Chinese or Russian moon base than to invest in one of our own at this point in time).

  47. There’s no way to know what a sustainable moon colony would cost as we really don’t know what it would take to sustain it. If we had to lift everything out earth’s gravity well for the 1st 10 years, which is likely unless something is discovered in the lunar regolith we don’t about now, I don’t think it could be done any time soon. I think a minimum of a trillion simoleons just to get a good start. At present it isn’t feasible.

  48. And I don’t see that happening. Frankly, I expect this time next year we are going to cursing the RNC and the blue bloods again. Romney is just McCain release 2.0.

  49.  Yeah it was a real shame, because she is obviously a highly intelligent woman, cerebral even, and on top of that, at her best she has the Kennedy looks, charm, and charisma. It was one of those strange situations where she had the leadership abilities and the prerequisite knowledge, but unfortunately was lacking the necessary political skills to make the sell. She is just too parochial as a politician, and could never overcome her unfortunate reputation as a right wing lunatic fringe fanatic.

    But my main point here was she just didn’t spend enough time going after Mitt. If she had focused on him, she could have knocked him out. Then she would have been the conservative heroine, the one most conservatives would have naturally flocked to.

    Instead, many wasted their time on Rick Perry who, for all his own failings, was damn sure not shy about attacking Mitt Romney. But almost everybody else, except lately Gingrich, has been easy on Mitt, and we see what that’s gotten us. Yet, conservatives still waste their time fighting about Rick versus Newt, while Romney just stays poised to glide right in there.

  50. Instead of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, it’s the old “We’re all in this together, so I’m going to kill you (figuratively) and take your army to add to my own.”

    Very cynical.

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