The Other McCain

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Election Results 2024: Trump Wins Big in Florida and Virginia Is Too Close to Call?

Posted on | November 5, 2024 | No Comments

UPDATE 10:10 p.m. ET: OK, we’re starting to see some Georgia counties where 99% of the vote is reported. Barrow County, where Trump got 26,804 votes (70.6%) in 2020, he now has 30,674 votes (69.9%) so that he has increased his vote total, but with a slight decrease of percentage. In Walker County, where Trump got 23,173 votes (78.9%) in 2020, he now has 25,452 (79.3%) — increasing both his vote total and percentage. The question is whether small gains like this in more rural counties will be enough to offset Kamala’s big numbers in metro Atlanta. As of now, with 79% of the statewide vote counted, Trump leads by 52% to Harris’s 47%. The Real Clear Politics poll average for Georgia was Trump +1.3. He is overperforming the polls Georgia, so far.

UPDATE 9:45 p.m. ET: Right now, with 75% of votes counted in Georgia, Trump leads by a 5.2-point margin, about 112,000 votes. That’s a bit too close for comfort. In my next update, I’ll do some county-by-count breakdowns of Georgia. Meanwhile in Virginia, with 61% reporting, Trump leads by about 16,000 votes. He probably won’t win there, but the fact that it’s this close is a very good sign. Ohio has been called for Trump — it was never in doubt, really — and the encouraging thing there is that Trump’s margin is about 11 points, with 64% counted. Trump won by 8 points in Ohio in 2020, so expanding his margin there would bode well for Michigan and Wisconsin. We shall see . . .

UPDATE 8:50 p.m. ET: With 87% counted in Florida, Trump’s margin there is now 13 points, while in Virginia, with 43% counted, it’s a 49%-49% dead heat. These are good omens for Trump.

UPDATE 8:22 p.m. ET: Wait a minute — I heard that wrong! Hallucinations? Flashbacks from that 1979 psilocybin trip? Whatever — MSNBC still has Georgia “too early to call.” Apologies for the false alarm.

UPDATE 8:15 p.m. ET: Georgia is the first battleground state called for either candidate, and MSNBC calls it for Trump. The word for this is YUGE! Remember, the margin of victory is important here as an indicator of how other battlegrounds may go, but to be declared the winner in Georgia barely an hour after polls closed? YUGE!

EXPECT FURTHER UPDATES . . .

*** PREVIOUSLY (6:45 p.m. ET) ***

Usually, I watch CNN (so you don’t have to), but tonight my home office TV is tuned to MSNBC, because I think it’s gonna be glorious! Trump wins this thing? They’ll be crying 96 tears on MSNBC, baby.

Anyway, earlier today, I told you about Stacey Abrams and her fantasies of “voter suppression” in Georgia, and I turned some of that material into a column at The American Spectator:

When the Georgia General Assembly enacted new election laws in 2022, the state was targeted by a dishonest propaganda campaign led by the president of the United States. The new Georgia law was “Jim Crow 2.0,” Joe Biden said — a hateful smear for which that notorious liar has never apologized. Excuse my indignation, but I was born in Atlanta and grew up in Douglas County, Georgia, and this disgusting slander outraged my sense of pride in my native state. Yet the beautiful irony is that the new law in Georgia may prevent America from suffering another one of those “too close to call” nightmares such as was inflicted on us four years ago.
Georgia has greatly increased its early voting, and the votes that have been cast early will also be counted early, so that within a couple of hours of 7 p.m. Eastern, when polls close in Georgia, we may know the winner of that state. Depending on how Georgia goes, the winner there may be almost certainly projected as the winner of 270 Electoral College votes necessary to claim the White House. . . . 

You can read the rest of that. We’re getting ready for the polls to close in Georgia now, and I’ll be back with updates on that and other numbers.

UPDATE 7:05 p.m. ET: MSNBC just projected Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Harris, but claims that both Indiana and South Carolina are “too early to call.” LOL. However, Virginia — a state Joe Biden won by 10 points — is also “too early to call,” which could be interesting.

UPDATE 7:10 p.m. ET: OK, now MSNBC has called Indiana for Trump, and also projected Republican Jim Banks has won the Senate race in Indiana. Meanwhile, we’re starting to get results in Florida, which is not a battleground state, but which may give us an indication of whether Kamala Harris is underperforming Joe Biden. So far, with 18% reporting, it’s Trump 51.9% to Harris 47.2% — not much different from the Trump-Biden numbers four years ago. We’ll see.

UPDATE 7:25 p.m. ET: OK, I’m watching Steve Kornacki break down Georgia votes, with only 3% statewide reporting so far, but we’ve got a few GOP-leaning counties — including Gordon and Union — that are up around 80% reporting, and these seem to be on pace to hold strong for Trump. Honestly, we need Trump to get up around 52% in Georgia to feel comfortable with the other battlegrounds.

UPDATE 7:35 p.m. ET: Welcome, Instapundit readers! The polls have just closed in North Carolina, and meanwhile, MSNBC has just projected Donald Trump the winner in West Virginia (just in case anybody didn’t already know). And at this moment, with 9% of returns counted in Georgia, Trump leads 60% to 40% over Harris.

UPDATE 7:50 p.m. ET: It’s rather too early to draw any conclusions from the Florida vote — 71% counted, and polls still open in the western panhandle — but it doesn’t look bad for Trump there. To repeat, Florida is not a battleground, but we want to see if Trump does better against Harris than he did against Biden four years ago. In order to be confident that he can flip the battleground states, Trump needs to be exceeding his 2020 vote share everywhere. Right now, it’s Trump 54% to Harris 45% — a substantial improvement on the 51%-48% against Biden four years ago.

UPDATE 8:10 p.m. ET: Several states just got called by MSNBC, including Florida for Trump. Again, this was not a battleground, but Trump’s Margin of victory in Florida may be indicative of his nationwide strength compared to 2020. Right now, with 78% of the votes counted, it’s Trump 55%, Harris 44% — a substantial gain for Trump. Meanwhile, Steve Kornacki is going through Georgia county-by-county, and finding net gains of between 1 and 3 points for Trump. As I’ve said, we need to see Trump at 52% in Georgia to feel comfortable about North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Right now, with 36% reporting, he’s at 56%.

Hang on and keep praying, folks.



 

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Category: Donald Trump, Election, Florida, Georgia, Kamala Harris, MSNBC, Virginia

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