FROM OHIO: POLLS, POLLS, POLLS

CINCINNATI, Ohio
Pete Da Tech guy disassembles a Quinnipiac Poll that has samples of D+7 in Florida and D+8 in both Florida and Ohio, so that while Mitt Romney handily wins independent voters in both states, he nonetheless trails Obama by 1 point in Florida, 2 points in Virginia and 5 points in Ohio. These numbers are a sort of statistical hallucination. Pete quotes Ed Morrissey at Hot Air:

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election.  If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead.  However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday.  In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

You might think some reporter at the New York Times, which co-sponsored this poll, would think it worth his while to interview the people at Quinnipiac and ask where they’re getting these weird over-samples of Democrats. What is causing this? How is it that Republicans report greater voting enthusiasm by such large margins, and yet are underrepresented in the poll’s sample? It makes no sense.

Meanwhile, there is an actual campaign to cover here in Ohio. I’m going to see Ann Romney’s 11:30 a.m. event in Hamilton.

Ladd Ehlinger, Jr. Hanging It Up?

by Smitty

The latest Ladd Ehlinger continues to delight:

It’s with sadness that I read his retirement post there. His edgy work put a great deal of zip into the often boring political discourse, while keeping it rational. Unfortunately, it sounds like the effort to make things boring and predictable has filtered out true creative genius. This is a shame. Ladd has probably forgotten more about the craft of making a movie than I know.

Update: Instalanche, via Ed Driscoll! Thank you, sir.

@DanRiehl Update 29 Oct 2012

by Smitty

Rainy day in VA. My office is closed, and my wife’s incessant stream of telcons, like hurricane Sandra, is a major distraction, since I’m mostly looking after the World’s Youngest Blogger.

Yesterday, as the sky assumed a claustrophobic, slate grey cast, and the winds were picking up, I did a bit of shopping:


I’m actually able to navigate INOVA Fairfax readily, so I made it to Dan’t room by about 1530. Dan had a guest, an old friend, who chuckled at the box of Diet Cokes on my shoulder.

Dan was looking quite a bit better, feeling strong enough to rule out any further photo ops. This also extends the life of the camera optic. Dan allowed that, according to the doctor, his numbers continue to improve. Those that know Dan understand that he’s rather private about personal matters and medical details. Also, I’m neither a journalist, nor one to pry. So we just chatted about nothing, not even the presidential race. The point was to bolster his spirits, and get his mind off of being caged in the hospital for a while.

Today’s cruddy weather precludes another visit. We are far enough south that it’s mostly a colossal downpour here, and shouldn’t threaten the safety of anyone in a hospital.


So, the good news is that Dan is on the mend. Fret not, Conor Friedersdorf: your floggings will resume presently. And hit Dan Riehl’s tip jar. I’d estimate Dan’s dropping about a mortgage payment a day for that array of tubes he’s sporting.

@DanRiehl Update 27 October 2012

by Smitty

FAIRFAX, VA–I trundled around in Fairfax Station for three hours this morning. Nice McMansions, including a family named Riehl that allowed no relationship to Famous Blogger Dan. After lunch at the excellent Four Sisters, I headed over to see the Carnivorous Conservative.

INOVA Fairfax is a mad place. You park in the Gray Lot, walk through one building, take an elevator up, walk through a connecting hallway, and into the main tower. Dan had been moved from Intensive Care to a slightly less intensive area one floor up.  Whether the name of his new digs are ‘Intermediate’ or ‘Medical’ care was unclear, but he’s gone from the second to the third floor in the tower.

And joy was had, then uploaded to Twitter:

Dan is improving. He didn’t care to delve into the specifics of his condition, but I was to understand that he was fairly close to done with life on Wednesday, when he checked in. Seeing him conscious, he looked a couple of orders of magnitude better than yesterday in the ICU. The moral support of the blogs and Twitter and friends is helping. Stacy McCain called after seeing the second tweet listed here, and offered encouragement, but holding a phone conversation ran Dan out of breath rather rapidly.

If the Hurricane Sandra hasn’t cleaned the stores out entirely, I’ll see about liberating a case of Diet Coke and then check in on Dan tomorrow afternoon. It’s the least I can do. As a commenter on an earlier post noted, you’re dropping a mortgage payment a day for the privilege of being in a hospital. So do remember Dan Riehl’s tipjar in the right column on his blog.

@DanRiehl Update

by Smitty

I went by and saw Dan Riehl in the Inova Fairfax ICU.


Dan has worked harder than most (e.g., me) on the effort to tear down the walls of the mainstream media Jericho over the last few years. You have to drop names like that of the late, lamented Andrew Breitbart to name somebody who was working harder on the restoration of the country.  Multitudes of folks echo the current news (and don’t stop; we make an important chorus) but Dan was a maker of news. His contacts and investigative skills (of which I had the merest glimmer of insight) allowed him to dig up crucial facts on a host of stories (go see Hating Breitbart for just one example).

Dan is a true leader, mentoring those who will listen, flogging relentlessly those who will not. I’ve no idea what the medical bill will be like for a few days in the Intensive Care Hotel, but it can’t be cheap. My intention is to swing by tomorrow, around noon, after doing some door knocking for the campaign. Hopefully, he’ll be conscious, so that I can take a picture. Do consider his tip jar, as you are able. I’ll have to wait until next week, after the mortgage has cleared, myself.

Oh Lord, pour out some grace on Dan and heal him. Fully. Soon. So that we can gather at Shelly’s Back Room after the election, for all Dan may eschew partaking of the combustibles.

Update: thanks, Instapundit and A Time for Choosing.

Neal Rauhauser as Carlito2000:
How Barrett Brown Went Down

My planned campaign road trip has unfortunately been delayed, which gives me a chance to follow up on some recent activity by Neal Rauhauser, who became rather enraged when I pointed out that it was Neal who “drove Barrett Brown off the deep end.”

Rauhauser knows that this is true — the Sept. 12 video meltdown by Brown, the former “Anonymous” spokesman, was a direct consequence of Neal’s manipulations — and he is attempting to evade responsibility for Brown’s arrest.

Brown’s meltdown occurred in the immediate aftermath of his attacks on Patrick “Patterico” Frey. The fact that Brown went after Frey, then flipped out and started raving about Jennifer Emick, Aaron Barr and HB Gary — who loom large in Rauhauser’s favorite conspiracy theories — was all the circumstantial evidence needed to know that Neal was behind it. The day before Brown’s arrest, he posted to Pastebin a transcript of an online chat he had with Frey, which included this question from Brown:

Right now, I think the only real question I have for you is, do you know if Robert Stacy McCain might have had any discussions at all with either Emick or anyone at HBGary at any time, and do you have any correspondence in which he discusses me?

Woo hoo! Now, in point of fact, I never had any communication with Emick until Oct. 19, when she contacted me to talk about her recent conflicts with Neal Rauhauser. And I’ve never talked to anyone at HBGary, period. But this was what Rauhauser wanted Brown to believe, that somehow I was part of a conspiracy involving Emick and HBGary. In the Pastebin, Brown posts this excerpt of an online chat log:

13:47] <Carlito2000> Jen Emick & William Welna getting cornholed by #treehouse on 2600.net
[13:47] <Carlito2000> logs posted by Bitchiest aka Kelly Hallisey
[13:47] <Carlito2000> ringleaders there are Bratty (Kelly), Render64 (her man), Pythorian, girlfriday, DingoLingo & humu
[13:47] <Carlito2000> Emick has been circulating among right wingers for a while now
[13:47] <Carlito2000> Approached by @ZAPEM, tentatively Michele Lessick a while ago. Very likely was working with
[13:47] <Carlito2000> @Liberty_Chick (Mandy Nagy) and @dmatthewstewart (Douglas Matthew Stewart) in pursuit of Anonymous
[13:47] <Carlito2000> they hassle @AnonyOps, @AnonyNewsNet, claiming they are Neal Rauhauser, and otherwise act stupid
[13:47] <Carlito2000> Emick has appeared just once as “Cream” on @BrooksBayne site thetrenches.us, as secret source on Rauhauser
[13:47] <Carlito2000> there is a huge split there – Darby/Stranahan get crosswise with Bayne, nasty civil war stared a month ago
[13:48] <Carlito2000> nachash (@doxbin) release big torrent on @Sanguinarious (Welna) and there was a Jen Emick funpack
[13:48] <Carlito2000> funpack contains a doc about pursuit of Brett Kimberlin, straight out of HBGary playbook, and it was NOT in the initial dump UGnazi took from Emick
[13:49] <BarrettBrown> oic
[13:49] <BarrettBrown> where can I get that?
[13:49] <Carlito2000> source is believed to be Tom Ryan, canna go into details on how we sorted that out
[13:49] <BarrettBrown> okay
[13:49] <BarrettBrown> I know he and Emick are in some petty war
[13:49] <Carlito2000> So, its in Emicks’s directory but the writing ain’t her or ZAPEM, seems very much to be @Liberty_Chick style
[13:49] <BarrettBrown> and vaguely aware of Bitchiest etc conflicts, all that, but haven’t followed as much as I should
13:49] <Carlito2000> So, its in Emicks’s directory but the writing ain’t her or ZAPEM, seems very much to be @Liberty_Chick style
[13:49] <BarrettBrown> and vaguely aware of Bitchiest etc conflicts, all that, but haven’t followed as much as I should
[13:50] <Carlito2000> sadly, I am a subject matter expert on this anondrmama
[13:50] <Carlito2000> So Darby is under suspicion as being the SWAT caller that triggered #Swatgate

What you see here is that “Carlito2000” is offering Brown a file (“funpack”) supposedly containing information about Emick’s “pursuit of Brett Kimberlin,” which Emick says is a complete fabrication by Rauhauser. And you see that “Carlito2000” is also interested in many other of Rauhauser’s obsessions — Mandy Nagy, Doug Stewart, “ZAPEM” and Brandon Darby. Frey tried to get Brown to see this:

Frey: “Carlito2000” sounds an awwwwwful lot like Neal. . . .
I think your source Carlito2000 is Neal. He’s spreading disinformation the way he tends to, by sending it to people other than the target, to make it seem more credible. I know all his tricks by now and he and his people are all boring me.
Brown: I actually know for a fact that he’s not Neal, just like I knew for a fact that @Anony_Ops wasn’t Neal. And if I thought it was Neal I wouldn’t take it all too seriously.

With this in mind go watch the 13-minute video rant that got Barrett Brown arrested last month:

“I got to find out, thanks to a hack — thanks to another f–king stroke of luck, thank God — that HB Gary, since mid-February, had hired an FBI informant . . . making up reasons to raid Barrett Brown and get his information. . . .
“It turns out — from the e-mails that were stolen two months ago and that, thank God, I have — that that guy was an old military buddy of HB Gary executive Jim Butterworth. . . . I know what’s been done to me by these f–king contractors . . .
“FBI agent Robert Smith is a criminal who’s involved in a criminal conspiracy that has, thank God, been revealed, part of which was evident months ago, because I told the f–king FBI agent Daniel Forseck . . . when his f–king little Jennifer Emick — f–king informant, HB Gary employee — bragging about the sh-t, she gave me the number. I guess she wanted to talk to me and see what I’d say.”

So, who fed Brown this conspiracy theory about Emick and HB Gary? “Carlito2000,” a/k/a Neal Rauhauser.

Obscure Ex-Starlet @SophiaBush Sticks Her #LadyParts Out on Twitter, With Hilariously Predictable Results

Civility™ is getting so complicated, I just can’t keep up with all the new rules, in the same way I have trouble keeping track of which former starlets actually count as “celebrities.”

Last night, after I filed my American Spectator column about the debate — strategically, a win for Romney — I was kind of randomly browsing Twitter and saw Michelle Malkin having a war with someone named Sophia Bush:

It went on for a while, raising the obvious question: “Who is Sophia Bush?” I mean, Malkin’s a New York Times bestselling author, a syndicated columnist, New Media entrepreneur, Fox News contributor — a genuine somebody — so why is she arguing with this person I never heard of?

It began, evidently, when the actress read a satirical article mocking Ann Romney and Tweeted it out, apparently not recognizing that the stupid quotes attributed to Mrs. Romney were not anything the GOP candidate’s wife had actually ever said. Republican women then started arguing back at Ms. Bush on Twitter, causing her to get all huffy and defensive, finally issuing this intensely stupid retort:

Her idiocy earned Ms. Bush a post at Malkin’s Twitchy site, but she apparently failed to study the First Law of Holes, and began digging again Monday during the debate:

With that, I think, Sophia went from the ridiculous to the sublime. It’s like political haiku or something. Transcendent gibberish. And of course, Twitchy blew her up again.

Let us pause, readers, to contemplate the sequence: Sophia apparently cannot make any political statement without invoking her vagina, but if you object to argumentum ab vagina, this proves you’re some kind of insensitive misogynistic cretin. She just talks, talks, talks about her genitals, and we’re suppose to act like this is enlightened, sophisticated, praiseworthy, courageous.

Well, no, it’s weird and offensive.

Imagine you’re at the shopping mall and some woman you never met walks up to you and starts blabbering about her vagina.

Call 911, right? This woman’s either a crack whore or some kind of mental case, but either way, her behavior is so profoundly abnormal she must be a danger to herself or others.

Yet, thanks to Eve Ensler and the feminist movement, women like Sophia Bush have been persuaded that constantly talking about their vaginas in public is not only healthy and normal, but that anyone who is offended is a crazy right-wing extremist. The world has been turned upside down, so that the values are exactly reversed, and the crazy vagina-talkers think themselves fit to lecture others about “respect” and “civility.”

Although tempted to invoke my scrotum to settle the argument — “How dare you disrespect the First Amendment rights of my scrotum?” — this is unnecessary, as my point is simply this: The Left routinely defies all traditional norms and societal values, while reserving to themselves the right to be as indignant as a Victorian prude should anyone speak to them discourteously. It’s really just a crude totalitarian power-game, an expression of Marcusean radicalism, “liberating tolerance,” and it takes a strong mind to resist being lured into that Humpty-Dumpty alternative universe where words mean whatever the Left says they mean.

Well, to hell with the niceties, you see: Raw mockery is what they deserve, and I’ll make damned sure they get all they deserve. So I went right to work on Sophia Bush:

Let’s see here: Thirty years old, was queen of the 1999 Rose Bowl Parade, made her acting debut in 2002, best known for a cable TV show (One Tree Hill) you never heard of before, as well as a couple of movies John Tucker Must Die (2006) and The Hitcher (2007) you likewise never heard of before. Won a few “Teen Choice Awards” when she was, in fact, in her mid-20s.

Sophia can’t seem to keep a man. She was briefly married to her TV co-star Chad Michael Murray in 2005, but that didn’t last six months. She dated another co-star, James Lafferty, and then another, Austin Nichols, only to be returned to the reject pile each time. Basically, it looks like any male actor cast in One Tree Hill was contractually obligated to bang Sophia Bush for a while.

Is it cruel to mock her like this? Yes, purposefully so. Yet there’s nothing personal about it — heck, I never even heard of her until last night — and it’s not really political, either.

There are plenty of women every bit as liberal as Sophia Bush who don’t make themselves obnoxious by lashing out at Republicans, blabbering about their vaginas and acting as if they were courageous First Amendment heroes deserving of admiration and praise. If she’s going to get up in Michelle Malkin’s face with that kind of crude act, she’s practically handing us an engraved invitation to mock her politics, her miserable B-list career and her pathetic vagina, too.

Shut your pie-hole, woman, or I’ll start talking about my scrotum again.