Category: Fear and Loathing in the Sunshine State

‘Swarmin’ With Mormons’

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John McCain, Luis Fortuno and Mitt Romney during
rally at Lanco & Harris, Orlando, Jan. 27, 2012

ORLANDO, Fla.
If you don’t vote for Mitt, why do you hate America? That was the fundamental theme of Friday’s super-patriotic rally for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at an industrial warehouse here.

After a three-hour drive from Jacksonville, I arrived slightly late and was stunned by the size of the crowd, as evidenced by the cars parked streetside and in every parking lot near the Lanco & Harris warehouse. Four TV satellite trucks were parked near the loading dock, and as I walked up the ramp into the warehouse, some cranky geezer was onstage ranting about how he was fed up with all these darned debates.

“Nineteen of ’em! I’m tired of the mud wrestling!” the geezer said, provoking applause from the crowd of about 500 packed into the warehouse. As I got closer to the stage, I recognized the cranky geezer as Sen. John McCain, who then said: “Hey, you kids, get off my lawn!”

OK, maybe I just imagined that last quote, which didn’t show up in Maggie Haberman’s report for the Politico, but I’m sure I got the trademark cranky-geezer tone just right.

Exactly why the Romney campaign wants this elderly loser campaigning for them, I don’t know. McCain lost Florida by 200,000 votes four years ago. But there are lots of grumpy old folks in Florida who are registered Republicans, and maybe having McCain stumping for Mitt generates some sympathy or something.

Anyway, the crowd was big and enthusiastic, and I worked my way around to the other side of the stage where I saw Eric Ferhnstrom, one of Romney’s top advisers, and asked him, “Y’all got this pretty much locked up, don’t you?”

The polls show Romney pulling away here in Florida, but Ferhnstrom wouldn’t admit the obvious: Mitt’s going to win this one in a landslide. Instead, he merely agreed that “the trend is encouraging,” and said, “Mitt hasn’t won a day since he won South Carolina.”

Which is true. For the past week, Newt’s been swinging wildly, and desperation is not attractive. He’s headed for a failure of Perry-eque proportions here, and the none-too-subtle assertion that Newt’s the victim of an Establishment conspiracy — a myth that even Sarah Palin has apparently bought into — only makes it more embarrassing.

The main point of tonight’s rally was for Mitt to collect the endorsement of the Governor of Puerto Rico, Luis Fortuno who, in keeping with the super-patriotic theme, praised Romney for being “committed to protecting the homeland, and that includes Puerto Rico.”

It was hard to miss the implication that, if any of the other Republicans gets the nomination, Puerto Rico will be overrun by Iranian terrorists. But the subtexts of campaign rhetoric are generally lost on crowds of jazzed-up enthusiastic partisans, so Fortuno’s comment was cheered by the audience with the same fervor as they had cheered McCain’s earlier darn-these-stupid-debates comment.

Anyway, the crowd was large and as rabidly as pro-Romney as any crowd I’ve seen and they didn’t seem any more “Establishment” than any other GOP crowd you might find during this campaign.

Eventually, I found Sarah Rumpf, who had an assistant shooting video of Mitt’s speech. And then afterwards, I bumped into Dave Weigel, who was wondering what percentage of the audience might be Mormon.

“All of them,” I said. “They’re everywhere. We’re surrounded by ’em. The place is swarmin’ with Mormons.”

Which might be about half-true. Sarah had told me that there are a lot more Mormons in Central Florida than most people suspect. Nobody has any solid statistics on how many LDS there are in the Sunshine State, but they are sufficiently numerous as to give Romney a solid “base” of core supporters, in the same way that dopehead college kids give Ron Paul a solid base, or angry middle-aged guys form the core of the Gingrich grassroots.

And that’s probably enough raw slander for one night. I’m supposed to be driving down to Naples, where Dan Collins‘s parents have a condo they’re not using. There aren’t any campaign events near Naples tomorrow, but I’ve got unlimited mileage on this rented Chevy, so what do I care? Besides, I need some rest, before I get all cranky and start grumbling about these darned debates — “You kids get off my lawn!”

— 30 —


The Mitt-maniacs were out in force.

The rock-star candidate shakes hands after his speech.

Sarah Rumpf (right) and her assistant, whose name I forgot.

Santorum Praised by Rush Limbaugh, Endorsed by Florida State Sen. Plakon

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Wearing my Florida shirt at the CNN Jacksonville debate,
Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 (Photo by Dave Weigel)

JACKSONVILLE, Fla.
On his radio program today, Rush Limbaugh singled out Rick Santorum for his understanding that “ObamaCare is ballgame,” as Rush put it. Limbaugh referred to Santorum’s strong performance in Thursday’s CNN debate, going after Mitt Romney’s own record on health care:

SANTORUM: What Governor Romney just said is that government-run top-down medicine is working pretty well in Massachusetts and he supports it. Now, think about what that means —
ROMNEY: That’s not what I said.
SANTORUM: — going up against Barack Obama, who you are going to claim, well, top-down government-run medicine on the federal level doesn’t work and we should repeal it. And he’s going to say, wait a minute, Governor. You just said that top-down government-run medicine in Massachusetts works well.
Folks, we can’t give this issue away in this election. It is about fundamental freedom. Whether the United States government or even a state government — you have Amendment 1 (ph) here offered by Scott Pleitgen (ph), who, by the way, endorsed me today, and it’s going to be on your ballot as to whether there should be a government mandate here in Florida.
According to Governor Romney, that’s OK. If the state does it, that’s OK. If the state wants to enforce it, that’s OK. Those are not the clear contrasts we need if we’re going to defeat Barack Obama. . . .
SANTORUM: Does everybody in Massachusetts have a requirement to buy health care?
ROMNEY: Everyone has a requirement to either buy it or pay the state for the cost of providing them free care. Because the idea of people getting something for free when they could afford to care for themselves is something that we decided in our state was not a good idea. . . .
SANTORUM: Just so I understand this, in Massachusetts , everybody is mandated as a condition of breathing in Massachusetts , to buy health insurance, and if you don’t, and if you don’t, you have to pay a fine.
What has happened in Massachusetts is that people are now paying the fine because health insurance is so expensive. And you have a pre-existing condition clause in yours, just like Barack Obama.
So what is happening in Massachusetts, the people that Governor Romney said he wanted to go after, the people that were free-riding, free ridership has gone up five-fold in Massachusetts. Five times the rate it was before. Why? Because…
ROMNEY: That’s total, complete…
SANTORUM: I’ll be happy to give you the study. Five times the rate it has gone up. Why? Because people are ready to pay a cheaper fine and then be able to sign up to insurance, which are now guaranteed under “Romney-care,” than pay high cost insurance, which is what has happened as a result of “Romney-care.”
ROMNEY: First of all, it’s not worth getting angry about.

Limbaugh said it is worth getting angry about, and many Republican voters who watched last night’s debate are probably reconsidering whether the media’s predetermined Mitt-vs.-Newt frontrunner narrative is overlooking the possibility that neither Romney nor Gingrich is the best choice to take on Obama. One Florida Republican who sees Rick Santorum as the best hope for conservatives is Florida state Sen. Scott Plakon, who endorsed Santorum Thursday:

Scott Plakon said: “Rick Santorum is a man who has consistently shown that he can be trusted to stand by his deeply held conservative principles regardless of the way the political winds blow and will be a steady, even hand in leading America towards prosperity and liberty again.
“He has consistently shown that he is willing to make decisions not for the next election cycle, but for the next generation. That is exactly the kind of leader and values we need to confront the failed policies and leadership of the Obama administration and to return America to the shining city on a hill that President Reagan spoke of.”

I caught up with Plakon in the “spin room” after last night’s debate and asked him about his switch from backing Herman Cain to supporting Santorum:

The latest Florida poll shows Romney pulling strongly ahead here. From my American Spectator column today:

Thursday’s debate, the 19th televised debate among Republican presidential candidates this year, certainly did not lack fireworks. And while many political junkies have become weary of watching these affairs, the event here on the campus of the University of North Florida may be as decisive as the South Carolina debates that were credited with helping Gingrich score a crucial win there Saturday. Polls this week in Florida show Romney pulling away, and the former Massachusetts governor had one of his best-ever debate performances Thursday, while Gingrich had one of his worst yet.
While arguments between the two Florida frontrunners got the biggest play, however, Thursday was also an impressive performance for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Polls show Santorum running a distant third in the Sunshine State, but he slammed both Gingrich and Romney for their previous stances on health care. . . .

Read the whole thing, although I confess it was written in a condition of complete exhaustion. CNN neglected to provide coffee in the filing center, and I also ran out of cigarettes before the debate ended. I managed to file my column by midnight, then came back to the hotel room, fell asleep about 2 a.m. and didn’t wake up until 10:30 a.m.

The Tampa Bay Times reports on Santorum’s plans for Florida and beyond:

After remarks at Florida State University  geared toward social conservatives, Santorum rolled out the endorsement  of state Rep. Scott Plakon, R-Longwood, a former top Herman Cain  supporter. Plakon told reporters he chose Santorum for his  conservatism, after Newt Gingrich’s recent “Obama style” ads turned  Plakon off.
“We’re not going anywhere. We’re staying in this  race for the long haul. I think we’re playing for the next states,”  Santorum told reporters afterward.
Still,  questions persisted because he’s not looking toward any celebration on  Election Night. He will be in Florida on Sunday and Monday for events,  including in Sarasota and Miami. No promises after that.
Said Santorum: “We’re just trying to figure out Monday from that  point  on what we’re going to do and if whether we’re going to stay here  on Election Day, when you really can’t campaign, maybe start going to   another state and start doing some campaigning. We want to use every   single day to campaign. And we’re sort of up in the air to exactly how  that works.”

Santorum’s plans are in flux, and so are mine. I’ve got a 1,500-word article due today for the March print edition of The American Spectator, and there’s an event tonight in Orlando where Romney is expected to get the endorsement of the governor of Puerto Rico. It’s about a three-hour drive, and the event starts at 8 p.m. Tempus fugits and deadline looms.

CNN JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA DEBATE

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla.
CONCLUSION 1 a.m. ET: Excuse my long absence. Had to go to the spin room for the post-debate action, then write a column for The American Spectator. I was hesitant to say this earlier but, did Rick Santorum kick butt or what?

Because I wanted to believe he did well, I felt that maybe I was prejudiced. But then I saw Guy Benson’s post at Townhall:

What a night for the former Pennsylvania Senator … he definitely made a very serious case that he might be the best Not Romney in the race.

No argument. Newt was off his game tonight, and I’d score Romney the winner — that is to say, I think Mitt did what he needed to do to win here Tuesday. But I suspect a lot of people watched that debate and said to themselves, “Hey, that Santorum kid’s pretty feisty.”

9:30 p.m. ET: Newt talks about the “Romney attack machine,” defends his claim to being a latter-day Reagan.

9:25 p.m. ET: Admit it: Rick Santorum won the Best Wife competition.

9:16 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum wants Marco Rubio in his cabinet. Newt wants Rubio as VP. Romney recites the names of lots of Latinos who haven’t self-deported.

9:12 p.m. ET: Mitt Romney: “We’re insisting on personal responsibility.” This is good for Santorum to be able to go back-and-forth with Romney, thus ending the Mitt-and-Newt Show. Also, he name-checked Scott Plakon.

9:07 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum slams Newt and Mitt for their records on health care.

9:03 p.m. ET: Lynn Frazier is unemployed and wants health insurance. Ron Paul blames government for inflating medical costs.

8:59 p.m. ET: Newt accuses Santorum of being “cheap.”

8:58 p.m. ET: Mitt says, “You’re fired.” Accuses Newt of pandering. “We’ve got to say no to this kind of spending.”

8:57 p.m. ET: Newt warns of Chinese dominance of space.

8:55 p.m. ET: Ron Paul wants to send Newt to the moon.

8:50 p.m. ET: Question about NASA and manned space flight, because all politics is local. And galactic.

8:49 p.m. ET: Wolf Blitzer asks Ron Paul, age 76, if he’s willing to release his medical records. Paul makes a joke about age discrimination.

8:48 p.m. ET: Ron Paul talks about currency. Sound money.

8:46 p.m. ET: Santorum on 28% top tax rate: “If it’s good enough for Reagan, it’s good enough for me.” Get’s a laugh with, “I wish I made as much money as Mitt Romney.”

8:45 p.m. ET: Newt says he’s “the opposite of Obama.”

8:43 p.m. ET: More talk about personal finances. Newt gets caught trying to say he didn’t say what he said. Newt’s in a hole, but won’t stop digging.

8:36 p.m. ET: Ron and Rick get to have their say about Fannie and Freddie. Santorum draws cheers for demanding that they “focus on the issues.”

8:34 p.m. ET: Newt defends himself ably against the lobbying charge. But what was he paid $1.6 million for?

8:33 p.m. ET: Mitt stings Newt on mutual funds, draws cheers.

8:31 p.m. ET: Newt says Romney “has been attacking me inaccurately, and he knows it.” It’s getting nasty again.

8:30 p.m. ET: Mitt Romney gets a question about Fannie and Freddie, and starts talking about Newt Gingrich.

8:28 p.m. ET: Now it’s the Ron and Rick Show. These guys really don’t like each other.

8:25 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum talks about Honduras, accuses Obama of supporting Marxists in Latin America.

8:24 p.m. ET: A lady named Vasquez has a question about trade with Latin America. Ron Paul loves him some free trade.

8:22 p.m. ET: It’s turning into the Mitt-Newt Show again.

8:21 p.m. ET: Newt wants everybody to learn English.

8:20 p.m. ET: Mitt: “Our problem is not 11 million grandmothers.”

8:19 p.m. ET: Romney: “I am pro-immigrant. . . . I want them to come here legally.”

8:18 p.m. ET: Romney accuses Newt of “over-the-top rhetoric,” invokes Marco Rubio twice, gets a big cheer from the audience.

8:17 p.m. ET: Newt Gingrich won’t answer a direct question about his accusation that Romney is “anti-immigrant.”

8:16 p.m. ET: Ron Paul panders to the Vaguely Incoherent.

8:14 p.m. ET: Mitt defends self-deportation. Did you know his father was from Mexico? It’s true. Look it up. Anyway, Romney’s answer is long and complicated.

8:12 p.m. ET: Newt is in favor of a “guest worker” program.

8:11 p.m. ET: On immigration, Rick Santorum wants to enforce the law. This is radical extremism!

8:09 p.m. ET: Candidates say a few words. Rick Santorum introduces his 93-year-old mom, who’s a senior citizen, kinda like Ron Paul.

8:04 p.m. ET: The candidates have been introduced.

8:02 p.m. ET: That was some good pre-debate hype, huh?

8 p.m. ET: And we’re LIVE!

* * * PREVIOUSLY (7:29 p.m. ET) * * *

We’re on the scene here at the University of North Florida where, at 8 p.m. ET, the four remaining Republican presidential candidates will debate on CNN. A few quick headlines for discussion:

Angry Newt Gingrich Attacks
Mitt Romney in Florida
— ABC News

Romney paints Gingrich
as mentally unstable
— Washington Post

4 Sentences: Why Tonight’s Debate Matters
— National Journal

Santorum guarantees he’s
a candidate ‘for a long time’
— CNN

I’ll be live-blogging tonight and I’ll back with more in a bit.

UPDATE: When I walked up tonight, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz was being interviewed outside the filing center:

And here’s video of the media walk-through at the debate hall today:

Fear and Loathing: Oceanfront View

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TV satellite trucks outside the press filing center,
University of North Florida, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012

JACKSONVILLE, Fla.
Carl Cameron was standing near the satellite trucks parked next to the press filing center when I got back from the media walk-through at Lazzara Performance Hall on the University of North Florida campus, site of tonight’s CNN debate (8 p.m. ET).

“Beats the hell out of Iowa, eh?” I said. The afternoon was warm and sunny. UNF coeds were bouncing past in tank tops and shorts.

“Yeah, lots better than Iowa,” Cameron said. “When are you guys going to attack Newt?”

“Attack Newt? What do you mean?”

“National Review went after him today,” Cameron said.

“I drove here straight from the airport,” I said. “Havent seen anything yet. What happened? What did they hit him on?”

So then he starts telling me about Elliot Abrams going after Gingrich as a disgrace to the Reagan legacy, Bob Dole going after Newt, et cetera, et cetera.  Cameron was standing there with George Bennett of the Palm Beach Post, and we talked a while about this and that, the amazing meltdown of Rick Perry and so forth, and then I excused myself.

Got in the silver Chevy Impala I’d rented at the airport — unlimited mileage — and drove down to Butler Boulevard  and over to the beach, turned left up A1A , cut over to 1st Street and found a Comfort Inn.

The clerk at the desk was extremely helpful and gave me a free upgrade to an oceanfront room. I asked her if there was a Goodwill store nearby, so I could buy a cheap sports coat, since the only coat I brought with me is my big winter overcoat. She gave me directions. I’m on the second floor, with a palm tree right outside my balcony. It’s nice.

I’ve got to cover the debate tonight, then tomorrow I’ve got to do a 1,400-word article for the March print edition of The American Spectator, so this might be headquarters for the National Affairs Desk until Saturday, when there’s a candidate forum near Orlando. A couple more photos:

Inside the debate hall at the Lazzara Performance Hall.

On the balcony of the National Affairs Desk headquarters. Now I’ve got to go get that sports coat at Goodwill, take a shower and get dressed in time for the debate.

Departing for Jacksonville: What’s Up Today Down in the Sunshine State?

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My flight leaves Baltimore-Washington International Airport about 9 a.m. and arrives in Jacksonville about 1 p.m. By the time this post goes live, I’ll be on my way to the airport. But I’m troubled by the news reports indicating that Rick Santorum has evidently decided to leave the campaign trail in Florida after tonight’s debate:

Speaking to reporters here [in Naples], the former Pennsylvania senator said was unsure if he would be in Florida the night of the primary, committing only to campaigning in the state [Thursday and Friday]. On Saturday, he’ll head home to Virginia for fundraisers and to prepare his tax records which he plans to soon make public.
Santorum said this weekend will be the first time he’s slept in his own bed since Christmas. . . .
But the GOP hopeful has been seen strong crowds in the South, drawing more than 1,000 supporters to a Megachurch here. And his rhetoric suggests he has no plans to leave the race anytime soon.
“This race has just started. It’s a three man race. We’re going to be in this race for the long term,” he said.

OK, on one hand, this makes a lot of sense. Florida is a winner-take-all state, and if the best Santorum can hope for is third place (as polls currently indicate) it’s only logical that he would rather raise money in Virginia than to spend money traveling around Florida in a last-minute effort that might boost his final showing by a few percentage points, without making any significant difference in terms of delegates.

Nevertheless, it will cost him some potentially valuable media exposure to be off the trail, and a disappointment to his Florida supporters if their candidate doesn’t show up for a Primary Night event in Orlando.

Turning to more practical considerations, however, the campaign calendar becomes more complex and challenging after Florida. There’s the Feb. 4 caucuses in Nevada, expected to be a test of strength between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. (Lots of Mormons and libertarians in Nevada.) I’d be surprised if either Gingrich or Santorum decided to make an all-out effort there, although if they could knock Romney down a few points, it might enable the Paulistas to deprive Romney of a win.

A better chance for Santorum would be on Tuesday, Feb. 7, when both Minnesota and Colorado hold caucuses. With two states on one day, Santorum could focus his strongest campaign effort in one (probably Minnesota, an industrial state with lots of Catholics), trying to score a stronger-than-expected finish, and leave the other to Romney and Gingrich.

Then, however, there’s a three-week gap in the calendar before the Arizona and Michigan primary on Feb. 28, and I’d expect Santorum to go all-out in Michigan: It’s home turf for Romney (whose father was the state’s governor 40 years ago), but it’s also the kind of blue-collar Midwestern industrial state that has been the focus of Santorum’s economic message. If by some miracle of dogged determination, Santorum could pull an upset win in Michigan — his second victory over Romney — the 2012 campaign would be a whole new ballgame. And that would be doubly true if, while Santorum’s got Romney pinned down in Michigan, Gingrich mounts a similar all-or-nothing battle against Romney in Arizona.

That kind of strategic hypothetical is getting way ahead of the game, however. Meanwhile, there’s Florida, where Allahpundit says Romney “seems to have stopped the bleeding, at least. . . . Looks like Mitt’s Freddie Mac attacks at the last debate were more effective than we thought.”

OK, but who is this “we,” Kemosabe? Never mind. From the standpoint of stopping Romney, Santorum’s reported pull-out from Florida is good news because it could help Newt hand Mitt another defeat, confirming that Romney’s “inevitability” is over. But Newt continues playing the “grandiose” game, generating headlines like this:

Gingrich Pledges To Establish
Permanent Base On The Moon
‘By The End Of My Second Term’

Yeah, he’s pandering for aerospace industry votes on the Space Coast, but those people probably don’t mind. It’s only somewhere down the line — when Romney or Obama cuts a TV attack ad talking about the outrageous cost of this space project — that Newt will be forced to pay a political price for spouting kooky sci-fi stuff like this.

UPDATE: Ruh-roh — Newt down by six in the latest Florida poll? High stakes in tonight’s CNN debate. Much will depend on how Wolf Blitzer runs the show. Will he have Mitt and Rick beating up on Newt? Rick and Newt beating up on Mitt? The moderators of these debates exercise an important influence over the proceedings, and some Ph.D. student in communications could get a dissertation of how this year’s debates have been stage-managed.

Late last night I got an e-mail from CNN’s lovely and charming publicist, Jennifer Scoggins, telling me I’m OK with the credentials for the debate. The question is whether there will be room for me in the filing center.