The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Wild-Ass Scenarios? Chill.

Posted on | November 5, 2012 | 24 Comments

WILMINGTON, Ohio
Prudence Paine had asked me to submit an Electoral College prediction map and, while Smitty played the game, I chose to abstain. It’s just not what I do. I once won an office pool by correctly guessing the length of a Bill Clinton State of the Union speech, but I suck at election predictions.

Uh, 401 Electoral College votes? C’mon. There are plausible scenarios in which Romney could clear the 300-ECV threshold, and that’s about as high as I’d be willing to go. Just imagine that you had $100 riding on the outcome, and the outrageous optimism immediately chills. Give me Nate Silver’s 7-to-1 odds against Romney, and I’d gladly bet $100, but other than that, I’ll predict nothing.

As I’ve said before, it’s better to think in terms of contingencies: “If X, then Y.” I just saw some data on early votes in Virginia that would seem to indicate Romney winning that state with 52% or more, an outcome (i.e., R+4) that no recent poll has predicted. OK, so if Romney overperforms the polling in Virginia, then he is likely to overperform in other states.

That contingency would then suggest that the systemic oversampling of Democrats that we’ve seen in so many polls has badly misrepresented the electorate, and you could probably figure on adding two or three points to Romney’s RCP average in any state. But readers didn’t send me to Ohio so I could pontificate about poll numbers. Time to leave this McDonald’s and get back on the road to the Romney rally in Columbus that starts in two hours.

Hit the freaking tip jar!

Category: Election 2012, Polls

By ‘Research’, Furr Means ‘Whitewash’

Posted on | November 5, 2012 | 10 Comments

by Smitty


From YouTube:

Dr. Grover Furr is an English professor at Montclair State University. He is actively engaged in concealing the murder of 150 million citizens by Stalin and other communists. How an accessory to genocide like him is permitted to teach at any American University is evidence of the successful Marxist takeover of academia. The above exchange occurred on October 25th, 2012 at that university.

Yeah, I guess the Black Book of Communism is just a copy of The Lord of the Rings that got munged by a mad PHP application*.

Furr, this blog supports and defends your right to debase yourself after the fashion of the dishonorable jackass. But I wouldn’t take your class, nor would I allow you to pollute my son’s mind with your wretched distortions. If you want to talk about Socialism in the abstract, fine. It’s just a set of ideas. However, don’t write off the reality that every time it’s implemented on any significant scale, authoritarianism, ruin, and misery follow.

via The lovely Gabriella Hoffman, whom follow.

*All implied anachronisms defined as part of the gag.  See: PHP.

Category: Politics

OHIO: IT’S MITT’S TO WIN

Posted on | November 5, 2012 | 19 Comments

Volunteers make calls at Americans for Prosperity phone bank in Ohio

BLUE ASH, Ohio
We’re at the center of the storm — ground zero of the entire presidential campaign — and you’d think this might provide some special insight into the ultimate outcome of the election. Not so. Ali’s spent the morning pondering the Electoral College map, trying to make his final predictions.

Fortunately for me, I’m a reporter, not an operative, a consultant, an analyst, a pundit or whatever you want to call Nate Silver. What I’d call Nate Silver is an Anglo-Saxon comp0und word with 10 letters. It’s not “psephological godhood,” although I’m grateful to Colby Cosh for teaching me that word.

Making predictions is above my pay-grade, although I’ve occasionally ventured a prophecy based on omens and portents, but there have been no earthquakes in Vanuatu lately, so I have no claim to know the mysterious will of God in this election. Selah.

Eight days into this Ohio road trip, I’m sick of all these experts who issue their pronouncements from the comfort of their living rooms without ever having set foot in a swing state, pundits whose idea of a “road trip” is blogging from their neighborhood Starbucks.

To hell with Nate Silver, and to hell with all the rest of them, these stationary buddhas of political prognostication, journalistic intellectuals who consider mere reporting to be beneath their dignity. You won’t find any graduates of the Kennedy School of Government sleeping on the floors of motel rooms and eating crappy breakfast food from the nearest convenience store. But I digress . . .

 

In the Information Age, everybody can see the polls, and this has been the most extensively polled presidential race in American history. Yet we arrive at Election Day with the outcome still very much in doubt, thanks to the cleverness of the Romney campaign. It was brilliant how, in the past 10 days, Mitt’s team seized the initiative and “expanded the map,” making plays in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. With the polls showing Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado all within the margin of error, Romney made a bold gamble that clearly confused Obama’s brain trust: Was Mitt really so confident of carrying the key swing states that he felt he had the luxury of pushing for a mandate or, alternatively, was Mitt so worried about the Ohio polls that he was seeking an alternate route to 270 Electoral College votes?

At this point, it’s moot. The upshot is that Romney’s gamble threw the Chicago gang off-stride, forcing them to send Obama and his top surrogates to play defense in states that had been thought safely “blue,” preventing the Democrats from piling everything they had into Ohio. Granted, Romney has had to make visits to defend Florida and Virginia — both of which should be safely in his column on Election Night — but somewhere in the third week of October, looking at the Big Picture, Mitt decided to go big or go home, and this is perhaps the only reason that he’s still in the game on this final Monday.

If he had played it safe, Romney would have lost. As it is, he’s got a chance to win, a chance that’s certainly greater than the 13.7% Nate Silver gives him. And here in Ohio, with the Republican ground game running at Full-Tilt Boogie speed, the two most recent polls — by Rasmussen and the University of Cincinnati — show a dead heat. And here’s the lunatic gibberish I filed from the Double Tree Hotel lobby at midnight:

Tens of thousands of Republicans were jammed into a Friday night rally in the Cincinnati suburb of West Chester, and Ron Sokol leaned over the crowd-control barricade to talk about what he’s witnessed during his door-to-door canvassing expeditions.
“Between now and 2008, I see a world of difference,” Sokol said, explaining how much more enthusiasm there is for GOP nominee Mitt Romney — and how much less for Barack Obama. Sokol also mentioned that Republican get-out-the-vote operations here in Butler County have been bolstered by an influx of volunteers from around the country. “I see people from Tennessee, Texas, Indiana — everywhere.”
Eyewitness accounts like Sokol’s are routinely dismissed by analysts as mere anecdotes and, even though it is proverbial that the plural of “anecdote” is data, such tales don’t count for much among the gurus, soothsayers, and other savants who arrogate to themselves the mantle of political expertise. But why bring up Nate Silver at this late stage of the campaign?
The statistical wizard of the New York Times has gone so far out on a limb with his prediction of an Obama victory that Silver might as well pull a Joe Namath and guarantee it. Late Saturday, he peered into his vaunted “Forecasting Model” and raised the likelihood of the president’s election to 85.1 percent, the one-tenth of a percentage point being the gimmick by which Silver provides his guesstimate with the illusion of scientific precision. Whatever his qualifications as a political analyst, Silver may be the most successful public-relations man since Eddie Bernays. His self-created aura of infallibility has made Silver a vital bulwark of the Obama campaign, which fed him their internal polling data (and signed him to a confidentiality agreement) in 2008 when he was openly advocating the Democrat’s candidacy on his own blog.
These days, as Mike Flynn of Breitbart.com says, Silver has become “the patron saint of confirmation bias,” providing statistics that support the liberal True Believer’s faith in the ultimate triumph of Obama. . . .

Read the rest at The American Spectator. There’s a Romney rally this afternoon at the Columbus airport.

We’re going. Please hit the freaking tip jar!




 

PREVIOUSLY:


Category: Election 2012, Fear. Loathing., Ohio, Polls, Shoe Leather Fund

@PruPaine #JustABlogger Electoral Vote Entry: Don’t Settle For Egg On Obama’s Face; Give It The Full Omelette

Posted on | November 5, 2012 | 42 Comments

by Smitty

Commies in Seattle, Frisco, Chicago, and New York are going to have a pounding hangover to match the pounding #OccupyResoluteDesk takes tomorrow:

Click the map to join the fray. As a backup position, I predict that BHO doesn’t crest 200 in the electrical collage, even with states 51-57:


I trust that Romney, in stark contrast to BHO, will have the character to grasp that this isn’t about him. It’s about liberty.

via Prudence Paine

Update: popular vote breakdown:

Romney: 59%
Obama: 39%
Other: 2%

Update II:


After that 01 August Chick-Fil-A munch-in, my gut says tomorrow will spell political obliteration for BHO.

Update III: Wow, Gay Patriot played a conservative hand. I hope he’s mis-underestimated the GOP turnout, and I think the 01-Aug-2012 Chick-Fil-A incident indicated that he may have.

Update IV: Oh, and Bill Quick may also be a little wobbly.

Update V: Great roundup at Nice Deb’s.

Category: Election 2012

Obama Causes, Meets Coffins

Posted on | November 5, 2012 | 19 Comments

by Smitty

Listen here, Chris Wallace: “Interagency issues” are a crock. The buck doesn’t stop at the three-letter-acronym agencies. President “Gutsy Call” has become President “Putzy Gall”. BHO can’t get kudos for bin Laden and then shirk the responsibility for Benghazi.

“This president is 100% committed to the people he sent overseas personally to represent this country. He’s the one who met those coffins when they came home.”

Is this the destiny of any warrior foolish enough to be in service as long as Obama holds office? Until #OccupyResoluteDesk comes clean as to just what was afoot in Benghazi, the idea that he hates the U.S. forces is a plausible default.

‘Greasy’ Axelrod can roll his Commie carcass back to Chicago and study silence. I can’t think of a more contemptible political spokesman, at any time in our history.

via Breitbart

Category: Barack Obama, Election 2012, Video

LIVE AT FIVE: 11.05.12

Posted on | November 5, 2012 | 3 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho


TOP NEWS
Obama: “I Need You, Ohio!”

The stench of defeat

But does the Buckeye State need him?

Marathoners Run To Staten Island
One thousand runners help hand out emergency supplies

Thousands Rally In Philly Suburbs For Romney
Mitt continues to expand the map




POLITICS
Napolitano Claims Supplies “Very Well Positioned” Before Sandy

DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano

Claims supplies were in place last Tuesday, held up by distribution problems (Video)

Gov. Christie: NJ Residents Should Try To Get Back To Work Today

“It’s All On The Line Here” For Liz Warren

Ryan, Clinton Bring Battle To Minnesota

True The Vote Pollwatcher Training Challenged By Left-Wing Groups In Virginia

NJ, NY Make More Voting Changes Due To Sandy

California Congressman Says Bloomberg Should Focus On NYC, Not The Inland Empire



THE ECONOMY, STUPID
Oil Up Slightly Amid Reduced US Demand: NYMEX $85.17, Brent $105.94
United’s Dreamliner Makes Inaugural Flight
G-20 Officials Meet To Discuss US, European Debt
Raley’s Employees Strike For First Time In Company’s 77-Year History
Apple Paid Only 2% Corporate Tax Outside The US
Can Hyundai, Kia Get Through Their Credibility Crisis?
Long Island Power Reduces Outages Below 300K While Preparing For The Next Storm
Businesses Step Up To Aid Sandy Victims
PS3 Might Finally Be On The Way To PRC
Google Wallet Gets Real
NBC Sites Hacked For Guy Fawkes Day
Mobile OS Three-Way Cage Fight
A New Glow, And Deeper Master Chief, Highlight “HALO 4”



SPORTS
Falcons Hold Off Cowboys, Remain Undefeated

Tony Gonzalez and the Falcons get by Bruce Carter and the Cowboys

Four field goals and a Michael Turner TD do it for Atlanta

Giants Fail To Boost NYC Morale With 24-20 Loss To Steelers

Lakers Finally Win One, Thrash Pistons 108-79

Johnson, Keselowski Create Plenty Of Drama With Slam-Bang Finish In Texas

Ducks Pass Notre Dame, Now #3 In BCS Standings

Bucs Outlast Raiders For Wild 42-32 Victory

NHL Labor Talks Gain Traction After Secret Meeting

Knicks Beat Sixers, 100-84

Sri Lanka Beats New Zealand After Still More Rain

Nationals Make Qualifying Offer To Adam LaRoche



FAMOUS FOR BEING FAMOUS
Leonardo DiCaprio, Erin Heatherton Break Up

Leo & Erin

Ten months of dating ends in scheduling conflicts

Bristol Palin Victorious In Bar Heckler Lawsuit

50 Cent: I Didn’t Steal That Song You Don’t Own

Jeff Goldblum’s Stalker Arrested Outside LA Theater

Carrie Ann Inaba Says She’s Ready For A Baby

Octomom Speaks Out From Rehab, Denies Michael Lohan Intervention

Joe Simpson Denies Being Gay

Wayne Gretzky Tells TMZ They Can’t Date His Daughter

Selena Gomez Oozes Glamour



FOREIGNERS
Is Reality Catching Up With The CCP?
Coptic Church Chooses Pope Who Rejects Political Role
Mahmoud Abbas’ Remark Seen As Concession, Sparks Uproar
European Leaders Seek Asian Support In Debt Crisis
Rahul Gandhi Uses Rally To Take Center Stage
Syrian Rebels Take Oil Field That Supplied Fuel For Loyalists’ Tanks
Kenya Policeman Killed, 10 Injured In Grenade Attack On Church
Syrian Dissident Pushes To Unite Fractured Opposition
Nationalists Hold Annual “Russian March” In Moscow



BLOGS & STUFF
American Power: Deadlocked
Gateway Pundit: CNN Poll Shows Romney-Obama Tie – With D+11 Sample
Riehl World View: RINObama – Linda MacMahon Doorhanger Encourages Voters To Support Her And Obama
Power Line: Ryan Rocks Minnesota
Weasel Zippers: Biden Predicts RINOism Will Sweep GOP If Obama Wins
Sense Of Events: ABC News Pundits On Romney
Lonely Conservative: EPA Poised To Ram Through Coal Killing Regulations After Election Day
Twitchy: Huge Crowd Packs Romney Rally In Bucks County
Legal Insurrection: Liz Warren Is A Feature, Not A Bug, For Liberals
Duane Patterson: “I Feel Like A Victim Of Hurricane Katrina”
NRO Corner: Mad Politics With Jim Cramer
Protein Wisdom: Polls And Prognosticators
GayPatriot: Mittmentum Extends Even To New York?
Conservatives4Palin: What? NY Daily News Endorses Romney?


Due to election officer duties, there will be no Live At Five tomorrow.
NOBODY STAYS HOME. GO VOTE.

Category: Live at Five

Shorter Wesley Clark: “Wait Until The Benghazi Investigation’s Done, But Let Me Seem To Exonerate BHO Anyway”

Posted on | November 4, 2012 | 16 Comments

by Smitty

Under the bus with you, General Clark:

What a disgusting pile of hooey. The President has already labeled himself thoroughly guilty by lying about Nakoula. Remember Nakoula, the lousy auteur who is still in the cooler, General Clark?

Piously claiming we can’t offer judgement until after the investigation, and then offering judgement anyway, is pure crap. What’s in it for you, Wesley, SECDEF? In the case of a Clinton-level dirtbag, there is some merit to the argument that you can’t affect change externally, that you have to compromise a bit and work with a dirtbag to make a difference.

Here, we’re talking about BHO, where there is a strong likelihood that he let warriors die for sheer spite. I suppose you can argue that Woods and Doherty weren’t regular troops on a DoD mission. But reasonable Americans are going to argue that your a throne-sniffing tool if you try to split hairs that way.

Clark, your assessment of the investigation, when done, will be highly interesting. I hope you are fed you weasel-words here, along with a healthy dose of crow for attempting to defend someone who is utterly indefensible.

via Breitbart

Category: Barack Obama, Democrats

Rule 5 Sunday: Medicine Show

Posted on | November 4, 2012 | 9 Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho


This post contains links to material that is most definitely NSFW; it also contains links to material that is perfectly okay at work. You’re an intelligent adult, you figure it out.


EBL leads off with a Halloween costume suggestion from Iowahawk and a conservative flight attendant’s confession. Laughing Conservative looks at Kelly Brook, American By Birth has Laura Michelle Prestin, and Blessed Blasphemy offers Sarah Michelle Gellar. Zion’s Trumpet has a portfolio of Monika Pietrasinska, Randy’s Roundtable Carrie Pullaro, and the Grumpy Old Man offers a fine selection of cosplayers. First Street Journal returns to a favorite topic, Women of the IDF, while Fishersville Mike contemplates revenge. Valley of the Shadow checks in with Fairuza Balk and a rattling of the tip jar, for it is now November.


A View From The Beach has musician Florence Welch, a new problem with gingers, ghoulish girls on Halloween, Mr. Dependable, Obamacare and boobs, Stormy Monday with Eva Cassidy, Boy With A Coin, and Berlusconi goes to jail. Second week with no cave girls. 🙁


Soylent Green starts off with Overnighty Kayla Klass, Monday Motivationer Martina, Tuesday Titillation Geraldine, Humpday Hawt by candlelight, Halloween hooters, AM Awesome Senka Bosic, a plan to deal with Holiday Traffic Suckage, Corsetcare Continuum, Ginger Snapper spam (a PSA), Overnighty Jennifer, AM Awesome Jengie, and Fall Back Spassfabrik.


Proof Positive’s Babe of the Week is Barbara Mori, his vintage babe is Cyd Charisse, and aside from the obligatory 49ers cheerleaders, there’s vintage Sex in Advertising and Elvira “cleaning up” for Halloween. Dustbury offers Canadian songbird Damhnait Doyle and French First Lady Valerie Trierweiler. The Camp of the Saints returns with Pollyanna Woodward, Rule 5 News, and Coco-T. Three Beers Later, of course, is tastefully multicultural.


The Daley Gator’s Daleybabes this week included Camilla Belle (with additional Rule 5 linkagery!), Alina Vacariu, Sharlene Osborne, Iyo Hanaki, Noriko Kijima, Livia Brito, and AJ Cook. Also, did the Oregon Ducks cheerleaders cause climate change? Also also, LEGS!!!


Thanks to everyone for their linkagery! Submissions for next week’s Rule 5 roundup should be in the Rule 5 Wombat mailbox no later than Saturday, November 10.

Category: Rule 5
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