The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

World’s Youngest Blogger Got Out The Vote

Posted on | October 27, 2012 | 13 Comments

by Smitty

While I was out knocking doors for the Romney/Ryan campaign in Fairfax Station, Niklas went with Mrs. Other Smitty to cast her ballot:

The World’s Youngest Blogger peers into a possible future of a second Obama term with a hint of trepidation.

Category: World's Youngest Blogger

@DanRiehl Update 27 October 2012

Posted on | October 27, 2012 | 29 Comments

by Smitty

FAIRFAX, VA–I trundled around in Fairfax Station for three hours this morning. Nice McMansions, including a family named Riehl that allowed no relationship to Famous Blogger Dan. After lunch at the excellent Four Sisters, I headed over to see the Carnivorous Conservative.

INOVA Fairfax is a mad place. You park in the Gray Lot, walk through one building, take an elevator up, walk through a connecting hallway, and into the main tower. Dan had been moved from Intensive Care to a slightly less intensive area one floor up.  Whether the name of his new digs are ‘Intermediate’ or ‘Medical’ care was unclear, but he’s gone from the second to the third floor in the tower.

And joy was had, then uploaded to Twitter:

Dan is improving. He didn’t care to delve into the specifics of his condition, but I was to understand that he was fairly close to done with life on Wednesday, when he checked in. Seeing him conscious, he looked a couple of orders of magnitude better than yesterday in the ICU. The moral support of the blogs and Twitter and friends is helping. Stacy McCain called after seeing the second tweet listed here, and offered encouragement, but holding a phone conversation ran Dan out of breath rather rapidly.

If the Hurricane Sandra hasn’t cleaned the stores out entirely, I’ll see about liberating a case of Diet Coke and then check in on Dan tomorrow afternoon. It’s the least I can do. As a commenter on an earlier post noted, you’re dropping a mortgage payment a day for the privilege of being in a hospital. So do remember Dan Riehl’s tipjar in the right column on his blog.

Category: Dan Riehl

STORM CANCELS ROMNEY VIRGINIA EVENTS; OHIO, HERE WE COME UPDATE: BOOM! Mitt Romney Endorsed by Des Moines Register

Posted on | October 27, 2012 | 28 Comments

Press release from Romney-Ryan HQ:

Boston, MA – On Sunday, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will continue the bus tour across the Buckeye State by attending Victory Events at Celina Fieldhouse in Celina, Ohio and the University of Findlay in Findlay, Ohio, where they will be joined by Big & Rich. They will then attend a Victory Rally at the Marion County Fairgrounds Coliseum in Marion, Ohio. Please note that Mitt Romney’s events in Virginia have been postponed due to public safety concerns.

Just got this word about an hour ago. I had been planning to attend the Romney rally in Haymarket, Virginia, but now have changed plans and will be going to Ohio instead.

UPDATE: Here’s the NBC News report:

The approach of Hurricane Sandy along the East Coast forced Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney to scrap a planned campaign swing Sunday in Virginia, rerouting the GOP contender to the battleground state of Ohio instead.
“I was looking forward to being in Virginia tomorrow but you know the hurricane is headed up there, and I just spoke with the governor, Governor [Bob] McDonnell, and the governor and I talked about that. He said, you know, the first responders really need to focus on preparation for the storm, so we’re not going to be able to be in Virginia tomorrow, we’re going to Ohio instead,” Romney told some 4000 supporters at a rally [in Kissimmee] Saturday.

UPDATE II: Just calculated the drive time to Marion, Ohio, which will be the last of three stops on the Romney-Ryan Sunday tour of Ohio:

  • Celina Fieldhouse
    585 East Livingston Street, Celina, Ohio
    Doors Open: 11:30 AM EDT
    Invite Time: 1:30 PM EDT
  • University of Findlay
    Koehler Athletic Complex
    1000 North Main Street, Findlay, Ohio
    Doors Open: 2:00 PM EDT
    Invite Time: 4:00 PM EDT
  • Marion County Fairgrounds Coliseum
    220 East Fairgrounds Street, Marion, Ohio
    Doors Open: 4:30 PM EDT
    Invite Time: 6:30 PM EDT

I’d love to be at the Findlay event — which will feature country superstars Big & Rich in concert — but there’s just no way. Making it to Marion in time will be pushing it pretty hard.

UPDATE III: So this is it, I guess. My plan had been to see Mitt in Virginia before heading to Ohio for a week, but now it’s an early departure to Ohio, thanks to a freak late-season hurricane.

Ali Akbar will join me on this expedition, continuing a three-year adventure that goes back to when we first met during the legendary NY-23 campaign of Doug Hoffman in 2009. The Hoffman campaign — the first true test of the Tea Party movement as a political force — now seems like a million years ago. But then again, the Iowa caucuses seem like a million years ago, too, and that was only last January. It’s been a wild ride, and it promises to get wilder yet.

By the way, Smitty went by to see Dan Riehl today. As my Twitter followers know, Dan is doing a bit better, and is now out of the ICU. He should continue to be in our prayers, and if you haven’t hit Dan’s tip jar yet, now’s the time to do it. I gave him another $25 today myself.

All the signs and omens are propitious, you see, and I just got word that the Des Moines Register has endorsed Romney. “Preference cascade.”

UPDATE IV: From the Des Moines Register endorsement:

The Register’s editorial board, as it should, had a vigorous debate over this endorsement. Our discussion repeatedly circled back to the nation’s single most important challenge: pulling the economy out of the doldrums, getting more Americans back in the workforce in meaningful jobs with promising futures, and getting the federal government on a track to balance the budget in a bipartisan manner that the country demands.
Which candidate could forge the compromises in Congress to achieve these goals? When the question is framed in those terms, Mitt Romney emerges the stronger candidate.

It’s the first time they’ve endorsed a Republican in 40 years.

UPDATE V: Notorious partisan cheerleader polling expert Nate Silver just went all-in, raising Obama’s chances of re-election to 74.4%.

UPDATE VI: Smitty has an update on Dan Riehl’s condition.





Category: Election 2012, Fear. Loathing., Iowa, Ohio, Shoe Leather Fund, Virginia

Let’s Make These Children Cry

Posted on | October 27, 2012 | 36 Comments

Exactly who or what inspired the “Future Children Project,” I’m not sure. All I know is, I want them to lose — and to lose so badly that these ugly children and their dimwitted parents will be stricken with helpless heartsick grief on Nov. 6:

The Future Children Project from FutureChildrenProject on Vimeo.

 

Yeah, an America “where sick people just die“? I’m 100% in favor of it, so long as it helps make these petulant twerps unhappy.

Hey, kids, look — RAAAAACISM!

UPDATE: The Right Scoop had it first:

Apparently this was put together by a San Francisco ad team that believes Romney will kill the planet or something. It’s a horrible song and it’s the left using kids that have no idea what they are really promoting to push their leftist agenda.

Oh, look: Obama’s under 50% and Mitt’s gaining in Pennsylvania.

And look: Reince Priebus is considering RNC ad buys in both Pennsylvania and Michigan. Do it, Reince — do it and make these children cry THE TEARS OF UNFATHOMABLE SADNESS!

Category: Election 2012, Video

If Bias Doesn’t Matter …

Posted on | October 27, 2012 | 46 Comments

. . . why is Dan Hodges cheering Nate Silver for “singlehandedly dismantling the myth of Mitt-mentum”? That is to say, if the reporting of poll data doesn’t influence voters one way or the other — if there is no bandwagon psychology effect created by such media narratives — then what does it matter whether journalists believe one candidate or another is winning?

Good luck answering that, and good luck to all the liberals who believe that counterfactual cheerleading can prevent Obama’s defeat if, in fact, we’re already on the other side of a “preference cascade.”

When Gallup showed Romney widening his lead to 5 points — and at 51 percent, just 10 days before Election Day — Donald Douglas anticipated that Nate Silver’s head would explode. But the Grand Swami will find a way to rationalize this, and the Graveyard Whistling Choir will cheerfully parrot whatever rationalization Silver provides them.

– –

Only one poll in October has shown Obama as high as 50 percent, and if Silver shows a sudden enthusiasm for John Zogby, you’ll know why.

As for me, I’m more traditional in thinking that an incumbent president who is persistently polling below 50% in October is on his way to becoming an ex-president. Romney’s margin in the Real Clear Politics average is a slender 0.9%, but . . . we’ll see. Gallup’s topline number involves pushing of “leaners,” and we don’t know whether Romney will maintain or extend this advantage.

Look at the Investors Business Daily poll for something interesting: Obama leads by 2.3 points in the topline, but the sample is D+7 and Romney leads by 10 points among independents.

We’ve seen this pattern so often in so many polls this year that I think it’s time to ask, “Is this what brand damage’ looks like?”

Did the post-2004 unpopularity of President Bush and his party so damage the GOP’s reputation that voters who might have once identified themselves to pollsters as Republicans are, instead, now thinking of themselves “indepedendents”? Other than persistent sample bias (or “weighting” of the samples by pollsters) it’s hard to think of any other explanation of this trend. This has shown up in poll after poll — a remarkably high advantage for Democrats in terms of partisan identification (e.g., 38% D vs. 31% R in the IDB poll) and a double-digit advantage for Romney among independents.

If my “brand damage” theory explains this phenomenon, then the topline numbers in the polls are more or less valid. If, on the other hand, the D/R split is tilted to the Democrats’ advantage due to some kind of artificial sample bias, then Romney’s lead is being underestimated. Put the D/R split closer to parity, and Romney’s double-digit lead among independents would guarantee a big win — 53% or more in the popular vote.

We could have a big discussion about “brand damage” and the failure of the GOP to build a stronger sense of partisan loyalty among Republican-leaning voters, but I’m content to let that wait until after the election. There is a definite problem, I think, but the discussion of the problem will be fundamentally shaped by the election results, and we don’t yet know how that will turn out.

Wisconsin: Romney 49, Obama 49

New FL poll shows Romney up 5, 51/46

Or do we? My gut hunch is that Obama has really already lost, and that the only question is whether the margin of his defeat will be decisive enough that everyone can deal with it, or whether we’re going to get the Nightmare Scenario:

92% (!) of Obama voters think Obama is going to win. Obviously these folks get their news from the mainstream media, aren’t paying attention to recent poll results, and/or are just bad at math. But more importantly, if the current “preference cascade” continues and Romney wins, as appears more likely every day, a significant minority of that clueless 92% is likely to engage in Occupy-style riots and endless false accusations of voter fraud and “election stealing.” And the irresponsible media (e.g., Dan Rather, MSNBC) will have only itself to blame.

Please, Lord, not that. If the election is close enough that the fringe left can claim it was “stolen,” it’s almost worse than losing.

Almost, I said. The fact that David Axelrod is talking about how Obama could win without Ohio is, I think, highly significant.

 

“KEEP CALM AND FINISH HIM.”
— Bryan Preston

UPDATE: This morning’s results tick the RCP average up slightly — Romney is now a full point ahead — and look at the latest four tracking polls:

Rasmussen Reports 10/24-10/26 ……… Romney 50, Obama 46
ABC News/Wash Post (10/22-10/25) … Romney 49, Obama 48
Gallup (10/19-10/25) ………………………. Romney 51, Obama 46
IBD/TIPP (10/20 – 10/25) ……………….. Rommey 45, Obama 47

These four have results through Thursday, and the average of them is Romney 48.8%, Obama 46.8%. Thus the average of the four most recent polls has Romney +2, which is twice the RCP average that (as of today) includes results that date back as far as Oct. 15. And something else you’ll notice from the RCP average: In general, the bigger the sample, the greater the Romney lead. Ranking them by sample size:

Gallup (2,700 likely voters) ………… Romney +5
Rasmussen (1,500 LV) ……………….. Romney +4
Monmouth (1,402 LV)) ………………. Romney +3
ABC News/Wash Post (1,382 LV) … Romney +1
Politico/GWU (1,000 LV) ……………. Romney +2
IBD/TIPP (957 LV) …………………….. Obama +2
Associated Press (839 LV) …………… Romney +2
NBC/WSJ (816 LV) …………………….. TIE
Wash. Times/Zogby (800 LV) …….. Obama +3
CBS News (790 LV) ……………………. Obama +2

Does this mean anything? I’m not sure, but just ask yourself this: If the opposite were true — if the polls with the largest samples all favored Obama, whose lead was larger in the more recent results — don’t you think Nate Silver would be shouting it from the rooftops?

 


Category: Election 2012, Polls

World’s Youngest Blogger Says: Keep It Under Your Hat

Posted on | October 26, 2012 | 5 Comments


“Pssst! Dad says it looks like #OccupyResoluteDesk is toast in about a week and a half. Why would the President be grilled bread?”

Category: World's Youngest Blogger

About That Creepy Obama ‘First Time’ Ad

Posted on | October 26, 2012 | 22 Comments

by Smitty

Via Eric Simmons:

I haven’t heard any response to this tweet:

Update: this just in from Crowder:

Update II: linked at Gay Patriot. Crowder cross-dressing. Had a lengthy conversation with Cynthia Yockey today, who is doing much better. Also talked to Da Tech Guy, on his way home from his New York foray, mentioning that the NY GOP freshman are being inundated with talk of #LadyParts by the Democrats.

Category: Barack Obama, humor

@DanRiehl Update

Posted on | October 26, 2012 | 98 Comments

by Smitty

I went by and saw Dan Riehl in the Inova Fairfax ICU.


Dan has worked harder than most (e.g., me) on the effort to tear down the walls of the mainstream media Jericho over the last few years. You have to drop names like that of the late, lamented Andrew Breitbart to name somebody who was working harder on the restoration of the country.  Multitudes of folks echo the current news (and don’t stop; we make an important chorus) but Dan was a maker of news. His contacts and investigative skills (of which I had the merest glimmer of insight) allowed him to dig up crucial facts on a host of stories (go see Hating Breitbart for just one example).

Dan is a true leader, mentoring those who will listen, flogging relentlessly those who will not. I’ve no idea what the medical bill will be like for a few days in the Intensive Care Hotel, but it can’t be cheap. My intention is to swing by tomorrow, around noon, after doing some door knocking for the campaign. Hopefully, he’ll be conscious, so that I can take a picture. Do consider his tip jar, as you are able. I’ll have to wait until next week, after the mortgage has cleared, myself.

Oh Lord, pour out some grace on Dan and heal him. Fully. Soon. So that we can gather at Shelly’s Back Room after the election, for all Dan may eschew partaking of the combustibles.

Update: thanks, Instapundit and A Time for Choosing.

Category: Dan Riehl
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