The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Let’s Make These Children Cry

Posted on | October 27, 2012 | 36 Comments

Exactly who or what inspired the “Future Children Project,” I’m not sure. All I know is, I want them to lose — and to lose so badly that these ugly children and their dimwitted parents will be stricken with helpless heartsick grief on Nov. 6:

The Future Children Project from FutureChildrenProject on Vimeo.

 

Yeah, an America “where sick people just die“? I’m 100% in favor of it, so long as it helps make these petulant twerps unhappy.

Hey, kids, look — RAAAAACISM!

UPDATE: The Right Scoop had it first:

Apparently this was put together by a San Francisco ad team that believes Romney will kill the planet or something. It’s a horrible song and it’s the left using kids that have no idea what they are really promoting to push their leftist agenda.

Oh, look: Obama’s under 50% and Mitt’s gaining in Pennsylvania.

And look: Reince Priebus is considering RNC ad buys in both Pennsylvania and Michigan. Do it, Reince — do it and make these children cry THE TEARS OF UNFATHOMABLE SADNESS!

Category: Election 2012, Video

If Bias Doesn’t Matter …

Posted on | October 27, 2012 | 46 Comments

. . . why is Dan Hodges cheering Nate Silver for “singlehandedly dismantling the myth of Mitt-mentum”? That is to say, if the reporting of poll data doesn’t influence voters one way or the other — if there is no bandwagon psychology effect created by such media narratives — then what does it matter whether journalists believe one candidate or another is winning?

Good luck answering that, and good luck to all the liberals who believe that counterfactual cheerleading can prevent Obama’s defeat if, in fact, we’re already on the other side of a “preference cascade.”

When Gallup showed Romney widening his lead to 5 points — and at 51 percent, just 10 days before Election Day — Donald Douglas anticipated that Nate Silver’s head would explode. But the Grand Swami will find a way to rationalize this, and the Graveyard Whistling Choir will cheerfully parrot whatever rationalization Silver provides them.

– –

Only one poll in October has shown Obama as high as 50 percent, and if Silver shows a sudden enthusiasm for John Zogby, you’ll know why.

As for me, I’m more traditional in thinking that an incumbent president who is persistently polling below 50% in October is on his way to becoming an ex-president. Romney’s margin in the Real Clear Politics average is a slender 0.9%, but . . . we’ll see. Gallup’s topline number involves pushing of “leaners,” and we don’t know whether Romney will maintain or extend this advantage.

Look at the Investors Business Daily poll for something interesting: Obama leads by 2.3 points in the topline, but the sample is D+7 and Romney leads by 10 points among independents.

We’ve seen this pattern so often in so many polls this year that I think it’s time to ask, “Is this what brand damage’ looks like?”

Did the post-2004 unpopularity of President Bush and his party so damage the GOP’s reputation that voters who might have once identified themselves to pollsters as Republicans are, instead, now thinking of themselves “indepedendents”? Other than persistent sample bias (or “weighting” of the samples by pollsters) it’s hard to think of any other explanation of this trend. This has shown up in poll after poll — a remarkably high advantage for Democrats in terms of partisan identification (e.g., 38% D vs. 31% R in the IDB poll) and a double-digit advantage for Romney among independents.

If my “brand damage” theory explains this phenomenon, then the topline numbers in the polls are more or less valid. If, on the other hand, the D/R split is tilted to the Democrats’ advantage due to some kind of artificial sample bias, then Romney’s lead is being underestimated. Put the D/R split closer to parity, and Romney’s double-digit lead among independents would guarantee a big win — 53% or more in the popular vote.

We could have a big discussion about “brand damage” and the failure of the GOP to build a stronger sense of partisan loyalty among Republican-leaning voters, but I’m content to let that wait until after the election. There is a definite problem, I think, but the discussion of the problem will be fundamentally shaped by the election results, and we don’t yet know how that will turn out.

Wisconsin: Romney 49, Obama 49

New FL poll shows Romney up 5, 51/46

Or do we? My gut hunch is that Obama has really already lost, and that the only question is whether the margin of his defeat will be decisive enough that everyone can deal with it, or whether we’re going to get the Nightmare Scenario:

92% (!) of Obama voters think Obama is going to win. Obviously these folks get their news from the mainstream media, aren’t paying attention to recent poll results, and/or are just bad at math. But more importantly, if the current “preference cascade” continues and Romney wins, as appears more likely every day, a significant minority of that clueless 92% is likely to engage in Occupy-style riots and endless false accusations of voter fraud and “election stealing.” And the irresponsible media (e.g., Dan Rather, MSNBC) will have only itself to blame.

Please, Lord, not that. If the election is close enough that the fringe left can claim it was “stolen,” it’s almost worse than losing.

Almost, I said. The fact that David Axelrod is talking about how Obama could win without Ohio is, I think, highly significant.

 

“KEEP CALM AND FINISH HIM.”
— Bryan Preston

UPDATE: This morning’s results tick the RCP average up slightly — Romney is now a full point ahead — and look at the latest four tracking polls:

Rasmussen Reports 10/24-10/26 ……… Romney 50, Obama 46
ABC News/Wash Post (10/22-10/25) … Romney 49, Obama 48
Gallup (10/19-10/25) ………………………. Romney 51, Obama 46
IBD/TIPP (10/20 – 10/25) ……………….. Rommey 45, Obama 47

These four have results through Thursday, and the average of them is Romney 48.8%, Obama 46.8%. Thus the average of the four most recent polls has Romney +2, which is twice the RCP average that (as of today) includes results that date back as far as Oct. 15. And something else you’ll notice from the RCP average: In general, the bigger the sample, the greater the Romney lead. Ranking them by sample size:

Gallup (2,700 likely voters) ………… Romney +5
Rasmussen (1,500 LV) ……………….. Romney +4
Monmouth (1,402 LV)) ………………. Romney +3
ABC News/Wash Post (1,382 LV) … Romney +1
Politico/GWU (1,000 LV) ……………. Romney +2
IBD/TIPP (957 LV) …………………….. Obama +2
Associated Press (839 LV) …………… Romney +2
NBC/WSJ (816 LV) …………………….. TIE
Wash. Times/Zogby (800 LV) …….. Obama +3
CBS News (790 LV) ……………………. Obama +2

Does this mean anything? I’m not sure, but just ask yourself this: If the opposite were true — if the polls with the largest samples all favored Obama, whose lead was larger in the more recent results — don’t you think Nate Silver would be shouting it from the rooftops?

 


Category: Election 2012, Polls

World’s Youngest Blogger Says: Keep It Under Your Hat

Posted on | October 26, 2012 | 5 Comments


“Pssst! Dad says it looks like #OccupyResoluteDesk is toast in about a week and a half. Why would the President be grilled bread?”

Category: World's Youngest Blogger

About That Creepy Obama ‘First Time’ Ad

Posted on | October 26, 2012 | 22 Comments

by Smitty

Via Eric Simmons:

I haven’t heard any response to this tweet:

Update: this just in from Crowder:

Update II: linked at Gay Patriot. Crowder cross-dressing. Had a lengthy conversation with Cynthia Yockey today, who is doing much better. Also talked to Da Tech Guy, on his way home from his New York foray, mentioning that the NY GOP freshman are being inundated with talk of #LadyParts by the Democrats.

Category: Barack Obama, humor

@DanRiehl Update

Posted on | October 26, 2012 | 98 Comments

by Smitty

I went by and saw Dan Riehl in the Inova Fairfax ICU.


Dan has worked harder than most (e.g., me) on the effort to tear down the walls of the mainstream media Jericho over the last few years. You have to drop names like that of the late, lamented Andrew Breitbart to name somebody who was working harder on the restoration of the country.  Multitudes of folks echo the current news (and don’t stop; we make an important chorus) but Dan was a maker of news. His contacts and investigative skills (of which I had the merest glimmer of insight) allowed him to dig up crucial facts on a host of stories (go see Hating Breitbart for just one example).

Dan is a true leader, mentoring those who will listen, flogging relentlessly those who will not. I’ve no idea what the medical bill will be like for a few days in the Intensive Care Hotel, but it can’t be cheap. My intention is to swing by tomorrow, around noon, after doing some door knocking for the campaign. Hopefully, he’ll be conscious, so that I can take a picture. Do consider his tip jar, as you are able. I’ll have to wait until next week, after the mortgage has cleared, myself.

Oh Lord, pour out some grace on Dan and heal him. Fully. Soon. So that we can gather at Shelly’s Back Room after the election, for all Dan may eschew partaking of the combustibles.

Update: thanks, Instapundit and A Time for Choosing.

Category: Dan Riehl

When David Axelrod Gets Worried, He Always Sends Me E-Mails

Posted on | October 26, 2012 | 9 Comments

And every time he sends me an e-mail, he asks for money:

Robert —
I first met Barack Obama in 1992.
Back before he was a state senator, a candidate, the President of the United States, a husband or a father, he was a 30-year-old guy running voter registration drives in Chicago. He made an impression on me — and when, in 2007, he decided to run for president, I signed up without hesitation.
I thought, if I could help Barack Obama get to the White House, I would have accomplished something great in my life.
It’s been a long and amazing journey, and our small team of a few became a movement of millions. Now, we’re in the final days of his last campaign, fighting to keep Barack Obama in the White House — and there’s not much time left to step up. We’re planning his last Election Night — and he wants you to be there.
Be a part of this. Donate $5 or whatever you can today, and you’ll be automatically entered to meet President Obama and be right up front at his Election Night speech.
I don’t know how this is going to end. But no matter what, I know each of us will have given this campaign everything we’ve got.
I hope you can be there on the big night.
Flight and hotel are covered for you and a guest — donate $5 or whatever you can today, and you’ll be automatically entered:
https://donate.barackobama.com/Election-Night
Thanks for everything. Let’s win this.
Sincerely,
David

If you ever signed up for their campaign’s e-mail updates,  you’re getting a steady bombardment of fear-mongering and worry-warting in your inbox these days. It’s almost as if Axelrod and Obama and Debbie Wasserman Schultz and all the other Democrats desperately begging for campaign cash don’t really believe Nate Silver’s 73.1% prediction.

Maybe they’re worried about The Racist Hurricane.

Maybe they’re worried about turnout in Virginia.

Maybe they’re worried about how moms in Iowa, Ohio, Colorado and other swing states will react to their sick new “do it with Obama” ad.

And, yeah, maybe that Benghazi mess worries them.

 

 

Category: Barack Obama, Election 2012

Gang Rape, Video Orgy, Teen Suicide

Posted on | October 26, 2012 | 15 Comments

Dan Riehl reports that four teenagers have been charged with gang-raping a University of Massachusetts student in her dormitory two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the New York Post reports on a 15-year-old girl who killed herself after a group-sex incident:

The Staten Island high-school girl who leapt in front of a train and killed herself had been humiliated by classmates after a video of her in an orgy with four football players went viral, sources said.
The NYPD is now investigating the death of Felicia Garcia, 15, a student at Tottenville HS. Detectives questioned school administrators yesterday and grilled the football players, who said the sex was consensual, sources said.
Garcia had watched Tottenville beat rival Port Richmond HS 16-8 in a Friday-night football game and attended a wild after-party.
There she had sex with the players, and when rumors of the tryst spread, she also told a friend the sex was consensual, sources said.
By Monday, the video was being shared among classmates. Some ridiculed Garcia, and others came on to her, friends said.
“This poor girl was called a slut. She was teased on Facebook,” a classmate, Victoria, said yesterday. . . .
Garcia and other students crowded on the Staten Island Railway station in Huguenot to go home. The taunts followed her there, said witness Rene Oviedo, 15.
“She was just standing by the edge of the platform with tears in her eyes,” she said.
Another witness, Sara Brager, 16, a junior, said: “The last words Felicia said were, ‘Finally, it’s here.’ I guess she meant the train. She dropped her bag, and she just fell back onto the tracks.”

Maybe the sex-education quiz should include this question: Is it considered “safe sex” if a girl jumps in front of a train afterwards? And now, for your final gross-out of the day:

Winnifred’s mother, Jenny Bonjean, is a feminist who says she’s trying to raise an uninhibited, empowered girl.

Read the whole thing. Millstone, neck, some assembly required.

Category: Crime, Culture, Sex

Obama ‘Grinding It Out’ in Ohio

Posted on | October 26, 2012 | 19 Comments

“Team Obama knows the campaign doesn’t have the magic it had in 2008. Crowds are enthusiastic, but not over-the-top enthusiastic. Obama’s strategy is to make up the excitement gap by just grinding it out, doing the organizational work of getting the people most likely to support the president — blacks, Latinos, women, the young — to vote early. By doing so, he hopes to build up a sufficient bank of votes to prevail over Romney on November 6. It’s the no-magic campaign.”
— Byron York, Washington Examiner

The evidently widespread faith that Team Obama can overcome any disadvantage through a superior “ground game” is the final bulwark of Hope, and we’re now 10 days from learning whether this faith will be justified. However, Republicans should not be discouraged by reports of the Democrats’ early-vote advantage.

It seems that many Republican voters are just old-fashioned and believe in voting in person on Election Day. I was in Virginia “Victory Centers” last week and heard the phone-bankers make call after call to folks who would say, yes, they support Romney, but no, they don’t want to vote early. And I remind you again what RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said last month in Ohio, when all the polls were running against Romney:

“We’re going to outspend the DNC 10-to-1 [in Ohio] for the next six weeks… We’re going to crush ‘em on the ground.”

Given the recent report that the DNC is essentially bankrupt, and that the RNC entered October with an 18-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s outfit, Priebus’s promise now seems a lot less like bragging than it did in late September when, according to Quinnipiac, Obama led by 10 points in Ohio. The latest Rasmussen poll has Ohio tied and, looking at the internals of another poll, Ed Morrissey says:

It’s a razor-close race in Ohio, but if Romney has knocked six points off of Obama’s 2008 gender gap and turned an eight-point deficit among independents into an eight-point advantage in a cycle where Democratic enthusiasm won’t come close to matching 2008, I have to think that the magic has already shifted to Romney.

We’ll see. I plan to return to Ohio next week. I’d rattle the tip jar, but with Dan Riehl in the hospital, I urge you to go hit Dan’s tip jar instead. I did.

 


Category: Election 2012, Ohio
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